Report Overview - The report provides investment analysis and forecasts for coking coal and coke futures on August 27, 2025 [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - For coking coal 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating, with a slightly bullish bias", and the overall view is "oscillating". The coking coal market has a mix of long and short factors, and the futures' main contract is oscillating within a range [1][5]. - For coke 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "oscillating, with a slightly bullish bias", and the overall view is "oscillating". In the medium and long term, coke may show a characteristic of being easy to rise and hard to fall [1][6]. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **View**: Intraday view is slightly bullish, medium - term view is slightly bullish, and the reference view is oscillating [5]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of coking coal have no significant changes. Over - production inspections and heavy rainfall in Shanxi still suppress supply. Meanwhile, environmental protection restrictions on coking plants and steel mills before the September 3rd parade reduce short - term demand. Although the impact of the "anti - involution" has been released, it may still bring positive news in the future, making the short - selling atmosphere cautious [5]. Coke (J) - **View**: Intraday view is slightly bullish, medium - term view is slightly bullish, and the reference view is oscillating [6]. - **Core Logic**: The intensified long - short divergence in the coking coal market has led to high - level oscillating consolidation of coke futures. The futures market has entered the verification stage from the previous strong cost - side expectation. Considering the possible subsequent policies related to "anti - involution" in the coal industry, the cost - side news is expected to form positive support, and coke may be easy to rise and hard to fall in the medium and long term [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For both Jiao Coal 2601 and Coke 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are mainly oscillatory, with an intraday tendency of being oscillatory and slightly bullish and a medium - term tendency of being oscillatory and slightly bullish [1][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - Jiao Coal 2601: short - term is range - bound and oscillatory, medium - term is oscillatory and slightly bullish, intraday is oscillatory and slightly bullish, with an overall reference view of oscillation due to increased wait - and - see sentiment [1] - Coke 2601: short - term is range - bound and oscillatory, medium - term is oscillatory and slightly bullish, intraday is oscillatory and slightly bullish, with an overall reference view of oscillation due to production - limit factors [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector 3.2.1 Jiao Coal (JM) - On August 21, the main contract of Jiao Coal closed at 1147 points, with an intraday decline of 1.50%. The main contract's open interest was 699,300 lots, an increase of 634 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1190 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [5] - Before the 93 military parade, coking plants and steel mills around Beijing face production - limit pressure, causing short - term demand for Jiao Coal to be under pressure and increasing market divergence. However, through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, the oversupply situation of Jiao Coal is expected to gradually ease, and the price center still has an upward basis in the medium - to - long term [5] 3.2.2 Coke (J) - The latest quotation of the Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke flat - price index was 1520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.40%; the ex - warehouse price of Qingdao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke was 1470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% [6] - Since August, there have been continuous news disturbances on the supply side of coking coal, the raw material of coke. Although the actual supply of domestic coking coal has not been significantly affected, market expectations have improved. After a phase of adjustment, coke futures prices may still show a characteristic of being easy to rise and hard to fall [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the JM2601 contract of coking coal, in the short - term, it is in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it shows an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. The overall view is that it oscillates due to the intertwining of multiple and short factors [1][5]. - For the J2601 contract of coke, in the short - term, it is in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it shows an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. The overall view is that it oscillates and operates at a high level due to increased production - limit disturbances [1][7]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Market Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1,190 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [5]. - **Core Logic**: Before the 9.3 parade, coking plants and steel mills around Beijing face production - limit pressure, causing short - term demand for coking coal to be under pressure and increasing market divergence. However, through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, the oversupply situation of coking coal is expected to gradually ease, and the price center still has an upward basis in the long - term [5]. Coke (J) - **Price and Market Information**: On August 20, the main contract of coke closed at 1,678 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.33%. The position of the main contract was 39,100 lots, an increase of 644 lots compared with the previous trading day. The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.40%; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Since August, there have been continuous disturbances in the supply of coking coal, the raw material of coke. Although the actual supply of domestic coking coal has not been significantly affected, market expectations have improved. After a periodic adjustment, the futures price of coke may still show a characteristic of being easy to rise and difficult to fall [7].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and Overall Views - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views for both Jiao Coal 2601 and Coke 2601 are mainly in the range of "oscillation", with intraday views being "oscillation on the stronger side" [1][5][6] Group 2: Core Views - For Jiao Coal, the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the "anti - involution" campaign is set by the Central Financial and Economic Commission and is actively responded to by multiple industries. The oversupply situation in the Jiao Coal market may gradually improve through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, and the price center has an upward basis in the medium - to - long term [5] - For Coke, the overall view is "oscillation". The core logic is that the supply and demand of Coke are both increasing, and the fundamentals are stable. Since August, there have been continuous news disturbances on the supply side of coking coal. The market expectation has improved, and the futures price of Coke is more likely to rise than to fall [6] Group 3: Summary by Variety Jiao Coal (JM) - Intraday view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Medium - term view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Reference view: Oscillation. The industry's supply - demand relationship is expected to gradually balance through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, but the risk lies in the insufficient implementation of policies [5] Coke (J) - Intraday view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Medium - term view: Oscillation on the stronger side; Reference view: Oscillation. The market expectation has improved due to supply - side news disturbances, and the futures price is easy to rise, with the main negative factor being the insufficient reduction in coking coal supply [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports [1][5][6] 2. Core View of the Report - The report is bullish on both coking coal and coke in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods, suggesting a long - biased trading approach for both commodities [1][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Market Sentiment**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1030.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.42%. The market sentiment is optimistic, driving the main contract of coking coal to rise significantly [5] - **Industry Policy**: A document on coal mine production inspection and rectification of over - production coal mines was released on July 22, covering major coal - producing areas in China. However, the impact of this inspection in Shanxi, a major coking coal - producing area, needs further tracking as over - production has been curbed since 2024 [5] 3.2 Coke (J) - **Price and Market Sentiment**: The latest quotation of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1320 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.20%, and at Qingdao Port is 1380 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8.66%. The third round of price increases for coke has been initiated, and the market atmosphere is optimistic, with the main contract remaining strong [6] - **Industry Policy**: The anti - involution work in the coal industry is advancing, and the notice on coal mine production inspection is confirmed. However, over - production in Shanxi has been curbed since 2024 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "rising", with a "bullish" reference idea. Coking coal remains strong due to over - production rectification support, and coke operates at a high level due to strong cost support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and medium - term views are "rising", with a "bullish" reference idea [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July and Xi Jinping's inspection in Shanxi, on July 22, there were documents on coal mine production verification and rectification of over - producing coal mines in major coal - producing areas such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang. This will change the subsequent supply pattern of coking coal. However, the over - production in Shanxi has been curbed after the "Three - Over Rectification" in 2024, so the impact of this policy needs continuous tracking. With the accumulation of positive factors, the market sentiment is optimistic, driving the main contract of coking coal to rise significantly [5]. Coke (J) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and medium - term views are "rising", with a "bullish" reference idea [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The news of coal mine over - production rectification has increased the expectation of coking coal supply contraction, driving the coke futures to strengthen. On July 21, coke enterprises started the second round of price increase for coke spot due to losses, and the futures market has improved the spot atmosphere. The 1.2 - trillion - yuan Yarlung Zangbo River super - hydropower project has started, which will boost the long - term demand for cement and steel. The anti - involution theme continues to ferment, and with the positive news from the demand side, the coke market is optimistic, and the main contract maintains a strong operation [6].

Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, offering specific comments and operation suggestions for different varieties based on their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors [2]. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: For IF2506, the lower support of the index is stable, one can sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums; for IH2506, the index opens high and closes low with sectoral rotation. One can also buy September IM contracts on dips and sell September out - of - the - money call options with a strike price of 6400 for a covered strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: T2506 may fluctuate in the short term, with a wait - and - see approach. Focus on the capital market and economic data. Curve strategy suggests a steepening trade. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond rates are around 1.66% and 1.92%, respectively, and are expected to fluctuate in the short term waiting for a driving force [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under short - term pressure with support around $3200 (¥745), and the sold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 800 can be held. Silver prices range between $32 - 33.5 (¥8000 - 8350), and an option straddle strategy can be tried [2]. Commodities - **Shipping**: With the easing of the Sino - US trade war, the spot price of the container shipping index (EC2506 for the European line) may rise. One can consider going long on the August contract or 8 - 10, 6 - 10 calendar spreads [2]. - **Steel**: The steel spot market is stabilizing with macro - level benefits. For RB2510, unilateral operations are on hold, and focus on the long - hot - rolled - coil short - raw - material arbitrage [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The increase in blast furnace maintenance may lead to a peak and decline in hot metal production. It is expected to trade in a range of 700 - 745 [2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke prices are in a new round of price cuts, and coking coal is weak. One can go long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke or coking coal. The coal mine inventory is high, and there is still a possibility of price decline, with high hedging pressure in the futures market [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The short - term oil price is likely to oscillate at a high level. The main contract of SC2507 has a range of [450, 510], and for options, one can buy volatility within the range [2][3]. - **Urea**: The inventory may be depleted faster, and the short - term futures price will oscillate at a high level in the range of [1850, 1950]. One can buy options to expand volatility [2]. - **PX and PTA**: Both are driven by strong supply - demand and tariff benefits, showing a strong trend. PX9 - 1 short - term calendar spreads and PX - SC spread expansion are recommended; for PTA, short - term 9 - 1 calendar spreads are considered, and a mid - term reverse view is taken [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Palm Oil**: After a post - noon decline due to a negative MPOB report, it is expected to rebound above 8000 [2]. - **Sugar**: Based on the positive data from Brazil in late April, one can either stay on the sidelines or trade short on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: With the easing of the Sino - US trade war, attention should be paid to the resistance at 13500 [2]. - **Special Commodities**: - **Glass**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the 09 contract should be observed for a breakthrough at the 1000 - point level [2]. - **Rubber**: With the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts, the price is expected to trade in the range of 14500 - 15500, and one can try shorting at the upper end of the range [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable, but the futures price is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: - **Polysilicon**: The industry fundamentals are expected to improve, and long positions or calendar spreads can be held [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The trading is intense, and the price is expected to range between 62,000 - 66,000 [2].