投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 8 月 22 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 2601 | 区间 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 观望情绪增加，焦煤震荡运行 | | | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强 | | | | 焦炭 2601 | 区间 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 限产因素扰动，焦炭延续震荡 | | | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the JM2601 contract of coking coal, in the short - term, it is in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it shows an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. The overall view is that it oscillates due to the intertwining of multiple and short factors [1][5]. - For the J2601 contract of coke, in the short - term, it is in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it shows an oscillatory and slightly upward trend. The overall view is that it oscillates and operates at a high level due to increased production - limit disturbances [1][7]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Market Information**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1,190 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat [5]. - **Core Logic**: Before the 9.3 parade, coking plants and steel mills around Beijing face production - limit pressure, causing short - term demand for coking coal to be under pressure and increasing market divergence. However, through capacity optimization and industrial upgrading, the oversupply situation of coking coal is expected to gradually ease, and the price center still has an upward basis in the long - term [5]. Coke (J) - **Price and Market Information**: On August 20, the main contract of coke closed at 1,678 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.33%. The position of the main contract was 39,100 lots, an increase of 644 lots compared with the previous trading day. The latest quotation of the ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3.40%; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% [7]. - **Core Logic**: Since August, there have been continuous disturbances in the supply of coking coal, the raw material of coke. Although the actual supply of domestic coking coal has not been significantly affected, market expectations have improved. After a periodic adjustment, the futures price of coke may still show a characteristic of being easy to rise and difficult to fall [7].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 8 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 2601 | 区间 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 乐观情绪降温，焦煤震荡整理 | | | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强 | | | | 焦炭 2601 | 区间 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 六轮涨价落地，焦炭高位震荡 | | | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强 | | | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡偏强 参考观点：震荡 核心逻辑：本轮"反内卷"整治由中央财经委员会定调，且获得多行业积极响应，后续焦煤市场 或将继续呈现渐进式改善。通过温和有序的产能优化 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：偏多思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1030.0 元/吨，周环比上涨 8.42%。产 业方面，自 7 月中央财经委员会第六次会议和习近平山西考察以后，7 月 22 日市场传出煤矿生 产情况核查、整改超产煤矿的相关文件，核查范围覆盖山西、内蒙、陕西、新疆等国内煤炭主 产区。该文件是煤炭行业在本轮反内卷整治的第一个重磅事件，将切实扭转焦煤后续供应格 局。不过，炼焦煤主产区山西省在经过 2024 年的"三超整治"后，超产现象得到有效遏制，因 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For both coking coal and coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "rising", with a "bullish" reference idea. Coking coal remains strong due to over - production rectification support, and coke operates at a high level due to strong cost support [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal (JM) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and medium - term views are "rising", with a "bullish" reference idea [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: After the 6th meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission in July and Xi Jinping's inspection in Shanxi, on July 22, there were documents on coal mine production verification and rectification of over - producing coal mines in major coal - producing areas such as Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, and Xinjiang. This will change the subsequent supply pattern of coking coal. However, the over - production in Shanxi has been curbed after the "Three - Over Rectification" in 2024, so the impact of this policy needs continuous tracking. With the accumulation of positive factors, the market sentiment is optimistic, driving the main contract of coking coal to rise significantly [5]. Coke (J) - **Viewpoints**: Intraday and medium - term views are "rising", with a "bullish" reference idea [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The news of coal mine over - production rectification has increased the expectation of coking coal supply contraction, driving the coke futures to strengthen. On July 21, coke enterprises started the second round of price increase for coke spot due to losses, and the futures market has improved the spot atmosphere. The 1.2 - trillion - yuan Yarlung Zangbo River super - hydropower project has started, which will boost the long - term demand for cement and steel. The anti - involution theme continues to ferment, and with the positive news from the demand side, the coke market is optimistic, and the main contract maintains a strong operation [6].

Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial and commodity markets, offering specific comments and operation suggestions for different varieties based on their current market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors [2]. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: For IF2506, the lower support of the index is stable, one can sell out - of - the - money put options to earn premiums; for IH2506, the index opens high and closes low with sectoral rotation. One can also buy September IM contracts on dips and sell September out - of - the - money call options with a strike price of 6400 for a covered strategy [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: T2506 may fluctuate in the short term, with a wait - and - see approach. Focus on the capital market and economic data. Curve strategy suggests a steepening trade. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond rates are around 1.66% and 1.92%, respectively, and are expected to fluctuate in the short term waiting for a driving force [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is under short - term pressure with support around $3200 (¥745), and the sold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price above 800 can be held. Silver prices range between $32 - 33.5 (¥8000 - 8350), and an option straddle strategy can be tried [2]. Commodities - **Shipping**: With the easing of the Sino - US trade war, the spot price of the container shipping index (EC2506 for the European line) may rise. One can consider going long on the August contract or 8 - 10, 6 - 10 calendar spreads [2]. - **Steel**: The steel spot market is stabilizing with macro - level benefits. For RB2510, unilateral operations are on hold, and focus on the long - hot - rolled - coil short - raw - material arbitrage [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The increase in blast furnace maintenance may lead to a peak and decline in hot metal production. It is expected to trade in a range of 700 - 745 [2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke prices are in a new round of price cuts, and coking coal is weak. One can go long on hot - rolled coil and short on coke or coking coal. The coal mine inventory is high, and there is still a possibility of price decline, with high hedging pressure in the futures market [2]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The short - term oil price is likely to oscillate at a high level. The main contract of SC2507 has a range of [450, 510], and for options, one can buy volatility within the range [2][3]. - **Urea**: The inventory may be depleted faster, and the short - term futures price will oscillate at a high level in the range of [1850, 1950]. One can buy options to expand volatility [2]. - **PX and PTA**: Both are driven by strong supply - demand and tariff benefits, showing a strong trend. PX9 - 1 short - term calendar spreads and PX - SC spread expansion are recommended; for PTA, short - term 9 - 1 calendar spreads are considered, and a mid - term reverse view is taken [2]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Palm Oil**: After a post - noon decline due to a negative MPOB report, it is expected to rebound above 8000 [2]. - **Sugar**: Based on the positive data from Brazil in late April, one can either stay on the sidelines or trade short on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: With the easing of the Sino - US trade war, attention should be paid to the resistance at 13500 [2]. - **Special Commodities**: - **Glass**: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the 09 contract should be observed for a breakthrough at the 1000 - point level [2]. - **Rubber**: With the easing of Sino - US tariff conflicts, the price is expected to trade in the range of 14500 - 15500, and one can try shorting at the upper end of the range [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price is stable, but the futures price is under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: - **Polysilicon**: The industry fundamentals are expected to improve, and long positions or calendar spreads can be held [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The trading is intense, and the price is expected to range between 62,000 - 66,000 [2].