盘前市场动向 1. 12月30日(周二)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐跌。截至发稿，道指期货跌0.06%，标普500指数期货 跌0.07%，纳指期货跌0.10%。 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨0.25%，英国富时100指数涨0.35%，法国CAC40指数涨0.29%，欧洲斯托 克50指数涨0.46%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油涨0.34%，报58.28美元/桶。布伦特原油涨0.34%，报61.70美元/桶。 美银CEO警告：市场已走火入魔，过度关注美联储是本末倒置！美国银行首席执行官Brian Moynihan指 出，美国经济的体量远超美联储，后者不应占据公众如此多的注意力。在被问及特朗普即将提名新任美 联储主席接替鲍威尔一事、以及这对消费者意味着什么时，他表示："人们对美联储的痴迷程度太高 了。""那种认为我们的命运系于美联储调整25个基点利率的想法，在我看来简直是乱了套。"然而，当 被追问及新任主席接掌后美联储可能面临政治干预的担忧时，他回应道："如果我们失去一个独立的美 联储，市场将会给予惩罚。" 美联储换帅倒计时之际，特朗普放话：仍可能解雇鲍威尔。特朗普暗示，他已有非常偏好的下一任美联 储主席人选 ...

12月30日，欢迎来到股市早观点，我们来看看今天有哪些消息热点？ 【周二你需要知道的隔夜全球要 闻：特朗普称其青睐的美联储主席候选人"没有改变"；国际贵金属大幅收跌；美债波动率或创2009年以 来最大年度降幅】 1、美国总统特朗普称其青睐的美联储主席候选人"没有改变"，重申预计将于1月宣 布新任美联储主席人选，并正考虑起诉现任美联储主席鲍威尔。2、国际贵金属大幅收跌，COMEX黄 金期货跌4.45%，报4350.2美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货跌7.2%，报71.64美元/盎司。现货白银大跌近 9%，现货钯金跌超15%，现货铂金跌超14%。 3、美股三大指数均小幅收跌，道指跌0.51%，纳指跌 0.5%，标普500指数跌0.35%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌0.67%。4、国际原油期货结算价收涨超2%。 WTI原油期货结算价收涨2.36%，报58.08美元/桶。布伦特原油期货结算价收涨2.14%，报61.94美元/ 桶。5、受美联储降息有效降低经济衰退风险的影响，美债波动率指标最新已降至约59。 关注我，更多 股市资讯告诉你！ ...

最新统计数据显示，ICE BofA MOVE指数——衡量债券市场预期波动率的一项核心指标，截至上周五美股收盘大幅 降至约59，创下自2021年10月以来的最低水平。该项波动率衡量指数已从2024年末约99点位的历史较高水平大幅下 跌，并有望录得自1988年该数据正式开始统计以来最陡峭的年度跌幅之一，仅次于金融危机之后的2009年的大幅下 滑步伐。 智通财经APP获悉，一项衡量美国国债市场波动率的指标正迈向自金融危机余波以来最大规模的年度下滑步伐，与此 同时，美联储10月开启的新一轮降息周期旨在抑制美国经济下行风险，这也意味着2026年初期美债市场波动率也将 偏向温和下行进程。 波动率持续下行之际，若特朗普政府在2026年力争最大程度抑制有着"全球资产定价之锚"称号的10年期美债收益率 潜在上行空间，从而选择削减长期国债发行规模或发行比例，积极转向发行短债，2026年对于近年来遭资金无视且 走势疲软的10年及以上期限美债资产来说可能将是"逆转之年"。若资金持续涌现10年期及以上美债，意味着"全球资 产定价之锚"有望持续下行，这一预期轨迹对于股票、加密货币以及高收益率公司债券来说可谓是重大利好因素。 长期限美债终 ...

【美债波动率或创2009年以来最大年度降幅】受美联储降息有效降低经济衰退风险的影响，衡量美国债 券市场波动率的一项指标正趋向于金融危机以来最大的年度跌幅。ICE BofA MOVE指数（衡量债市预 期波动率的指标）上周五已跌至约59，创2024年10月以来的最低水平。该指数从2024年底的99左右一路 走低，有望创下自1988年有数据记录以来最剧烈的年度降幅之一，仅次于2009年的暴跌。 ...

来源：滚动播报 受美联储降息有效降低经济衰退风险的影响，衡量美国债券市场波动率的一项指标正趋向于金融危机以 来最大的年度跌幅。ICE BofA MOVE指数（衡量债市预期波动率的指标）上周五已跌至约59，创2024 年10月以来的最低水平。该指数从2024年底的99左右一路走低，有望创下自1988年有数据记录以来最剧 烈的年度降幅之一，仅次于2009年的暴跌。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury market due to uncertainties in the government's fiscal situation and concerns over upcoming non-farm payroll data impacting Federal Reserve rate cut bets [1] Group 2 - The implied volatility of U.S. government bonds surged by 12.12 points over the past three days, marking the largest consecutive increase since April 2, when Trump announced reciprocal tariffs [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. government faces uncertainty regarding its fiscal situation, leading to increased volatility in the U.S. Treasury market [1] - The implied volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds surged by 12.12 points over the past three days, marking the largest consecutive increase since April 2 [1] - Concerns about the non-farm payroll data on Friday may impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, with market participants closely monitoring the report [1] Group 2 - The Trump administration's spending and tax cut plans are expected to worsen the U.S. fiscal situation unless tariff revenues are sustained [1] - There is growing market anxiety due to Trump's attempts to exert greater control over the Federal Reserve, including efforts to dismiss board member Lisa Cook [1] - These concerns are reflected more in interest rates, gold futures, and stocks than in currency markets, according to JPMorgan strategists [1]

Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - In May, the RMB exchange rate showed a general strengthening trend due to multiple factors, including a temporary easing of the US-China trade situation [1][2] - The RMB/USD exchange rate fluctuated and rose, breaking the 7.20 mark on May 12, despite a rebound in the dollar index [2] - By the end of May, the RMB exchange rate was recorded at 7.1953, reflecting an overall appreciation of 0.94% for the month [3] Group 2: Market Activity - The interbank foreign exchange market remained stable in May, with an average daily trading volume of $207.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12.59% [4] - The average daily trading volume in the RMB foreign exchange market was $158.10 billion, also showing a year-on-year increase of 8.43% [4] - The trading direction in the spot market showed variability, with institutions alternating between net selling and buying, resulting in an average daily net selling of $2.67 million [4] Group 3: Interest Rate Differentials - The interest rate differential between China and the US widened slightly in May, influenced by factors such as US government policies and inflation risks [5] - The 10-year US Treasury yield reached a three-month high of 4.58% before slightly retreating to 4.41% by the end of May [5] - The 10-year China-US bond yield spread ended the month at -274 basis points, widening by 20 basis points compared to the previous month [5] Group 4: Swap Points and Liquidity - The one-year swap points ended May at -2060 basis points, down 107 basis points from the previous month, primarily driven by interest rate factors [6] - The offshore swap points moved in sync with onshore points, with the one-year swap point spread narrowing to -97 basis points, the tightest since March 2023 [7] - Overall, dollar liquidity in the domestic market was relatively loose, with the domestic-offshore dollar overnight interest rate spread turning negative by the end of May [7]