Group 1 - Gold prices reached a record high, with spot gold peaking at $4318.75 per ounce and futures hitting $4335, driven by rising risk aversion and trade tensions between the US and China [1] - Spot gold closed up 2.6% at $4316.99, while December futures rose 2.5% to $4304.60, marking a year-to-date increase of over 60% [1] - The decline of the US dollar index by 0.33% to 98.35 was influenced by trade tensions and recent comments from Federal Reserve officials [1] Group 2 - The market experienced a downturn due to concerns over regional banks and credit risks, with major indices like the S&P 500 and Dow Jones falling by 0.6% and 0.7% respectively [4] - The VIX index rose as investor anxiety over banking and credit pressures increased, indicating heightened market volatility [7] - WTI crude oil prices softened under the pressure of oversupply concerns, while gold maintained its strength supported by safe-haven demand and speculation of Federal Reserve rate cuts [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views of the Report - Gold prices have reached a record high, with London gold spot breaking through $3,800 per ounce, and silver hovering near its 14 - year high. Despite strong risk - appetite in overseas markets, the risk of a US government shutdown and the decline of the US dollar have made gold an outstanding hedging and allocation target [3]. - There are both upward drivers and short - term risks for gold prices. Upward drivers include fiscal deadlock, concerns about government shutdown, the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, pressure on the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, central bank gold purchases, ETF increases, and geopolitical tensions. However, gold has risen for six consecutive weeks with a cumulative increase of over 40%, and there is a risk of short - term price correction due to profit - taking before the holiday and potential weakening of interest - rate cut expectations if US employment and PMI data are strong after the holiday [3]. - The medium - to - long - term logic for gold prices remains solid. Global debt expansion, the trend of de - globalization, continuous central bank gold purchases, Fed's future easing, and global economic uncertainties will support the strategic allocation value of gold [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key News - US President Trump announced a series of new import tariffs last Thursday, which has brought new uncertainties to the trade situation [2]. - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its third - quarter meeting, suggesting to strengthen monetary policy regulation [2]. - Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Kiev and other parts of Ukraine last Sunday, causing casualties [2]. - US lawmakers are about to hold talks with President Trump to avoid a government shutdown, and the Republican leader blamed the Democrats for the current deadlock [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices have reached a new high. London gold spot broke through $3,800 per ounce on Monday morning, and silver is near its 14 - year high. The risk of a US government shutdown and the decline of the US dollar have made gold an important hedging and allocation target [3]. - There are both upward drivers and short - term risks for gold prices. Upward drivers come from multiple factors, but there are short - term risks such as profit - taking and potential weakening of interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The medium - to - long - term logic for gold prices is solid, supported by factors like global debt expansion, central bank gold purchases, and Fed's future policies [3]. Commodity Index - On September 26, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities shows: the commodity index is 2237.97 with a - 0.51% change, the commodity 20 index is 2512.18 with a - 0.48% change, and the industrial products index is 2249.67 with a - 0.87% change [44]. - The PPI commodity index is 1325.62 with a - 0.84% change [45]. - The precious metals index on September 26, 2025: the current price is 3018.13, with a daily increase of + 0.75%, a 5 - day increase of + 1.71%, a 1 - month increase of + 9.91%, and a year - to - date increase of + 36.42% [46].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has shown strong upward momentum, driven by expectations of a government shutdown in the U.S. and a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October, with a target price of $3880 [1][5][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 29, gold opened at $3758.15 per ounce, reached a low of $3756.83, and then surged to a high of $3833.94, closing at $3833.71, marking a daily increase of $71.26 or 1.896% from the previous close of $3762.45 [3]. - The gold price is expected to maintain a bullish outlook, with support at the $3800 level, and any pullbacks are seen as buying opportunities [3][10]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Key economic data to watch includes the U.S. FHFA House Price Index, S&P/CS 20-City Composite Home Price Index, JOLTs Job Openings, and the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which are anticipated to be favorable for gold prices [3][6]. - The potential government shutdown could delay the release of critical economic reports, including the non-farm payroll data and consumer price index, which would impact investor sentiment and the dollar [6]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold price has consistently tested and rebounded from the mid-band support level of the Bollinger Bands, indicating a strong upward trend, despite potential pullback risks [8]. - The daily chart shows that gold has broken through previous resistance levels and is now positioned for further gains, with key support levels at $3818 and $3800, and resistance levels at $3850 and $3880 [10][11].

Core Points - A confrontation over U.S. government funding is intensifying, with Democrats proposing a significant counter-proposal that increases the risk of a government shutdown on October 1 [2] - The Democratic proposal includes healthcare policy reforms, which House Speaker Mike Johnson has stated have "zero" chance of becoming law as part of the spending bill [2] - The proposal aims to repeal Medicaid cuts enacted in July and seeks to extend Obamacare tax subsidies, potentially costing hundreds of billions [2] Group 1 - The Democratic counter-proposal lists priorities that could form the basis for any future compromise plan, but no serious negotiations have taken place so far [2] - Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has indicated that Republicans have not requested negotiations, suggesting a lack of willingness to engage [2] - The proposed temporary funding bill from Democrats would last until October 31, just before the insurance enrollment period begins [3] Group 2 - Republicans need at least seven Senate Democrats' support to pass a government funding bill, but Schumer has been firmly opposed to the Republican proposal [3] - Republican leaders have stated they do not intend to negotiate healthcare as part of the temporary funding process, viewing any significant healthcare-related proposals as unserious [3] - Concerns have been raised by Republican Senator Susan Collins about the lack of bipartisan support, with pressure from Schumer on Democrats to resist crossing party lines [3]

Core Points - The U.S. House Republicans introduced a temporary spending bill to prevent a government shutdown on October 1, but it does not include healthcare policy demands from Democrats, setting the stage for intense bipartisan conflict [1] - The short-term bill will fund federal government operations until November 21 and allocates a total of $88 million for security measures following the recent attack on conservative activist Charlie Kirk [1][2] - Democrats have threatened to withhold support unless the bill includes extensions for Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies, which are set to expire at the end of the year, potentially leading to significant premium increases for millions of insured individuals [1][4] Spending Bill Details and Security Funding - The bill provides funding at current levels for seven weeks, extending until November 21, with $30 million for local police reimbursements, $30 million for executive branch security, and $28 million for judicial security [2] - It includes a provision allowing Washington D.C. to use its own tax revenue, addressing a previous funding gap of $1 billion [2] - House Speaker Mike Johnson emphasized the need for responsible choices to keep the government open and to reach an agreement on the full-year spending bill [2] Internal Republican Resistance - Prior to the bill's introduction, four Republican representatives expressed opposition, with some demanding spending cuts before supporting any temporary measures [2][3] - Notable dissenters include Thomas Massie from Kentucky and Victoria Spartz from Indiana, who indicated they would vote against the bill if the new deadline coincides with major holidays [2] Democratic Healthcare Demands - Democratic leaders have made it clear they will not support any bill that does not lower healthcare costs, insisting on extending ACA subsidies and reversing cuts to Medicaid from the Trump tax law [4][5] - Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer warned that while the House may pass the bill along party lines, it requires 60 votes in the Senate to advance [4] Time Pressure on Healthcare Subsidies - Congress faces a deadline to decide on expanding ACA subsidies, as insurance companies are finalizing rates for next year's plans, with expected premium increases due to the impending expiration of federal subsidies [6] - Consumers can begin purchasing insurance for 2026 starting November 1, and many may be shocked by the higher premiums if no agreement is reached [6] - Senator John Thune expressed willingness to discuss maintaining enhanced ACA subsidies but indicated that more time is needed to finalize details [6]