3、央行货币政策委员会召开第四季度例会，研究下阶段货币政策主要思路，建议发挥增量政策和存量 政策集成效应，综合运用多种工具，加强货币政策调控，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情 况，把握好政策实施的力度、节奏和时机。促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。会议再次强调维护资本市 场稳定，但未提及房地产市场。 4、外汇市场迎来标志性时刻。12月25日，离岸人民币对美元盘中升破"7"整数关口，为15个月来首次， 最高触及6.9985。与此同时，在岸人民币对美元逼近"7"关口，最高触及7.0053，创15个月新高。 5、美国总统特朗普发帖称，希望接替鲍威尔的下一任美联储主席在经济和市场表现良好时降息，而不 是因通胀担忧提前"扼杀行情"。他批评当前市场逻辑已变成"好消息反而利空股市"，强调低利率有助于 推动股市上涨、提振经济和改善住房负担，说股市上涨可能推动美国的GDP一年增长10个、15个甚至20 个或是更多的百分点。 市场回顾 一、期货市场 | | 本周涨跌幅 | 本月涨跌幅 | | 今年以来涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE布油 | | 0.47 | -2.80 | ...

Export Performance - In July 2025, China's export growth rate was 7.2%, up from 5.9% in the previous period, while import growth was 4.1%, compared to 1.1% previously[10] - The trade surplus decreased, with exports showing a slight month-on-month decline of 1.1% compared to June, but still higher than the same period in 2024[10] - Exports to ASEAN and Latin America saw significant increases, recording growth rates of 16.6% and 7.7% respectively, driven by preemptive shipments ahead of tariff changes[17] Risks and Future Outlook - Key risks include the potential impact of the 232 tariffs and increased scrutiny on transshipments, which could lead to a moderate decline in exports moving forward[34] - The report highlights that the resilience of capital goods exports is noteworthy, as geopolitical tensions may lead to increased demand for Chinese equipment[34] - A significant risk factor is the unexpected weakening of the US economy, which could adversely affect export performance[43]

Core Viewpoint - The seminar reflects on the 80 years since the end of World War II, emphasizing the importance of acknowledging historical injustices and fostering peace through dialogue and cooperation among nations [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Reflection - Approximately 100 scholars from China and Japan participated in the seminar, discussing the significance of peace and the illegitimacy of Japan's wartime actions [1]. - The seminar highlighted the need for Japan to confront its historical actions, which is crucial for both regional relations and its own national development [1]. Group 2: Current Trends and Future Directions - A former official from Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry noted a trend away from the spirit of Japan's pacifist constitution, advocating for a healthier diplomatic relationship with China [1]. - The seminar's organizers pointed out the rising trend of de-globalization and the structural changes facing the post-war international order, indicating a need to reassess past experiences and mistakes [2]. Group 3: Importance of Dialogue - A professor emphasized the lessons from the anti-fascist victory 80 years ago, advocating for inclusivity and practical cooperation to maintain peace in a diverse world [1]. - A Chinese historian stressed the importance of timely communication to prevent misunderstandings and potential conflicts, particularly in the context of Cold War events [1].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Views - The company's performance met expectations, with a focus on the anti-aging agent industry reaching a bottom and the upcoming increase in lubricant additive volume [1][2]. - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, with high-end products accounting for a growing share of sales, leading to an increase in revenue and profit margins [7]. - The second phase of the Kangtai project is gradually releasing capacity, contributing to performance growth, while the lubricant additive business is expected to benefit from global supply chain restructuring [7]. - The life sciences business is being pushed to market, with electronic-grade PI business accelerating integration domestically and internationally, opening new growth avenues [7]. - The profit forecast has been adjusted downwards for 2025-2026 due to trade disruptions and weak terminal demand, with new profit estimates for 2027 introduced [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 6,559 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.3% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 585 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 37.2% [3]. - Earnings per share are forecasted to be 2.55 yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 22.4% [3]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 11.8% in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12 [3]. Market Data - As of May 20, 2025, the closing price of the stock is 29.92 yuan, with a market capitalization of 6,723 million [4]. - The stock has a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.5, indicating a relatively high safety margin compared to its historical average [4][7].