Core Viewpoint - Recent reports suggest that gold prices may stabilize above the $5,000 per ounce mark due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East is likely to keep gold prices above the critical level of $5,000 per ounce [1] - Ongoing negotiations in the region could quickly influence the price movements of gold [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - A genuine de-escalation of tensions may weaken safe-haven demand for gold, while renewed friction could drive investors to establish defensive positions in gold [1] - Other macroeconomic factors such as real yields, dollar movements, and Federal Reserve interest rate expectations may also impact the price of gold [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the previous sharp rise and fall in the precious metals market, the volatility tends to narrow. Short - term COMEX gold may form an equilibrium at $5000 per ounce, and COMEX silver at $80 per ounce. However, due to the long Spring Festival holiday and many uncertainties in overseas markets, there is still a possibility of sharp fluctuations in gold and silver prices. It is recommended that investors control risks and hold light positions during the holiday [55] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Price Trends - COMEX gold closed at $4332.1 per ounce on December 31, 2025, reached a high of $5626.8 on January 29, a low of $4423.2 on February 2, and closed at $5084.20 on February 9. COMEX silver closed at $70.98 per ounce on December 31, 2025, reached a high of $121.785 on January 30, a low of $63.9 on February 6, and closed at $83.05 on February 9 [4] - Shanghai gold closed at 977.56 yuan per gram on December 31, 2025, reached a high of 1258.72 yuan per gram on January 29, a low of 1005.4 yuan per gram on February 2, and closed at 1121.22 yuan per gram on February 10. Shanghai silver closed at 17074 yuan per kilogram on December 31, 2025, reached a high of 32382 yuan per kilogram on January 30, a low of 17900 yuan per kilogram on February 6, and closed at 20284 yuan per kilogram on February 10 [7] 3.2 Gold Supply - In 2025, the global total gold supply was 5002.31 tons, with recycled gold supply at 1404.33 tons. China's domestic raw - material gold production was 381.339 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.097 tons or 1.09%. Imported raw - material gold production was 170.681 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.817 tons or 8.81%. The total gold production from domestic and imported raw materials was 552.020 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.914 tons or 3.35% [10] 3.3 Gold Demand - In 2025, the global total gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with investment demand as the core driving force. The total global gold investment demand rose to 2175 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84%. Global gold ETFs had a net increase of 801 tons, and the demand for physical gold (bars and coins) reached 1374 tons, with China and India accounting for over 50% of this demand. Jewelry demand was 1638 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.2%, and industrial demand was 322.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [13] - In 2025, China's gold consumption was 950.096 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.57%. Gold jewelry consumption was 363.836 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.61%; bars and coins consumption was 504.238 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.14%; industrial and other uses of gold were 82.022 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.32% [13] 3.4 Central Bank Gold Purchases - From 2022 - 2024, global central banks increased their gold reserves by over 1000 tons each year, more than twice the average level from 2015 - 2019. By 2024, the proportion of central bank gold holdings in total demand had risen to nearly 25% (from 12% in 2015 - 2019). In 2025, global central bank net gold purchases were 863.25 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21% compared to 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, central banks increased their gold reserves by 230.25 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.2% but a 5.6% increase from the third quarter. Emerging market central banks led by China accelerated the de - dollarization of their reserves and continued to increase their gold holdings [16] 3.5 Gold and Silver Inventories - In 2025, SHFE gold inventory increased from about 15 tons at the beginning of the year to about 100 tons at the end of the year, reaching 104 tons on February 9. COMEX gold inventory was about 21.9 million ounces at the beginning of 2025, reached a high of about 45 million ounces in April, and then gradually declined to 36.26 million ounces (1128 tons) at the end of the year, and 35.29 million ounces on February 9 [18] - SHFE silver inventory decreased from over 1400 tons at the beginning of 2025 to about 519 tons on November 21, then fluctuated, and was 35 tons on February 9. COMEX silver inventory was a little over 300 million ounces at the beginning of 2025, reached nearly 500 million ounces in April, and then gradually declined to about 450 million ounces (about 14,000 tons) at the end of the year, and 390 million ounces (12,100 tons) on February 9 [23] - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory was slightly more than 1200 tons at the beginning of 2025, reached a high of 1768 tons in early April, and then declined to 494 tons on January 30 and 450 tons on February 6 [27] 3.6 US Economic Data - In December 2025, the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest level since March 2021 [32] - In December 2025, the US unemployment rate was 4.4%, lower than 4.6% in November. Non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000. The total employment increase for the year was 584,000, the weakest since the pandemic [35] - In December 2025, US JOLTs job openings were 6.542 million, the lowest since September 2020. The non - farm job opening rate (seasonally adjusted) was 3.9% in December [37] - The University of Michigan consumer confidence index rebounded for two consecutive months from a low. In January 2026, it was 56.4, up from 52.9 in December 2025 [40] - In January 2026, the University of Michigan 1 - year inflation expectation was 4.0%, down from 4.2% previously, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was 3.3%, up from 3.2% previously [43] - In January 2026, the US manufacturing PMI was 52.6, returning to the expansion range after 10 consecutive months below 50. The ISM services PMI was 53.8, remaining above the boom - bust line for eight consecutive months [46] 3.7 Fed Interest Rate Expectations - On January 28, 2026, the Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%. According to the CME "FedWatch" on February 9, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in March was 17.7%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 82.3% [50] 3.8 Factors Affecting Gold Prices - The US dollar exchange rate is a factor determining gold prices, but no detailed analysis is provided in the report [52] 3.9 Precious Metals Market Outlook - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair by President Trump on January 30 triggered a precious metals market sell - off, but the main reason was the large number of profit - taking positions after the previous continuous rise. However, due to geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, the sell - off may not be sustainable. After the sharp rise and fall, the volatility of precious metals tends to narrow, but there is still a possibility of sharp fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday [55]

Core Viewpoint - Global stock markets are stabilizing following a rebound in U.S. stocks, with cautious sentiment prevailing ahead of key interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan [1] Market Performance - U.S. stock index futures rose nearly 0.2%, with the S&P 500 futures at 6853.00, up 12.75 points [1] - European and Asian stock indices showed mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.4% and the Nikkei 225 closing up 1.1% [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 1 basis point to 4.08%, while the 10-year Japanese government bond yield increased by 3 basis points to 1.885%, the highest since June 2008 [4] Economic Data and Expectations - Upcoming U.S. economic data releases include the November ADP private sector employment report and the September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which are expected to influence market sentiment [1] - Analysts express concern that any unexpected positive data could lead to a short-term market pullback, given the current dovish market expectations [1] Commodity and Cryptocurrency Trends - Oil prices increased, with WTI crude oil rising over 0.4% to $58.9 per barrel, while silver prices fell slightly after reaching a historical high [4] - The cryptocurrency market remains active, with Bitcoin rising 2.5% to $93,892.01 and Ethereum up 2.8% to $3,081.45 [4][8] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index fell over 0.2% to 99.1, while the Indian rupee dropped to a historic low against the dollar, reflecting ongoing pressures from trade negotiations and capital outflows [4][10]

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, which is higher than the market expectation of 130,000, but reflects a slowdown in job growth amid trade policy uncertainties [17] - The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2% for the third consecutive month, indicating a potential delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [17] - The U.S. economy needs to create approximately 100,000 jobs per month to keep pace with the growth of the working-age population, which may decline due to immigration policy changes [17] Group 2 - Financial markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain the benchmark overnight interest rate in the range of 4.25% to 4.50% this month, with a possibility of resuming easing policies in September [17] - The job growth in May reflects businesses hoarding workers amid uncertainty over tariffs, which is hindering their ability to plan ahead [17] - The opposition from conservative Republicans and figures like Elon Musk to President Trump's tax and spending proposals adds another layer of uncertainty for businesses [17]