1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the previous sharp rise and fall in the precious metals market, the volatility tends to narrow. Short - term COMEX gold may form an equilibrium at $5000 per ounce, and COMEX silver at $80 per ounce. However, due to the long Spring Festival holiday and many uncertainties in overseas markets, there is still a possibility of sharp fluctuations in gold and silver prices. It is recommended that investors control risks and hold light positions during the holiday [55] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Price Trends - COMEX gold closed at $4332.1 per ounce on December 31, 2025, reached a high of $5626.8 on January 29, a low of $4423.2 on February 2, and closed at $5084.20 on February 9. COMEX silver closed at $70.98 per ounce on December 31, 2025, reached a high of $121.785 on January 30, a low of $63.9 on February 6, and closed at $83.05 on February 9 [4] - Shanghai gold closed at 977.56 yuan per gram on December 31, 2025, reached a high of 1258.72 yuan per gram on January 29, a low of 1005.4 yuan per gram on February 2, and closed at 1121.22 yuan per gram on February 10. Shanghai silver closed at 17074 yuan per kilogram on December 31, 2025, reached a high of 32382 yuan per kilogram on January 30, a low of 17900 yuan per kilogram on February 6, and closed at 20284 yuan per kilogram on February 10 [7] 3.2 Gold Supply - In 2025, the global total gold supply was 5002.31 tons, with recycled gold supply at 1404.33 tons. China's domestic raw - material gold production was 381.339 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.097 tons or 1.09%. Imported raw - material gold production was 170.681 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.817 tons or 8.81%. The total gold production from domestic and imported raw materials was 552.020 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.914 tons or 3.35% [10] 3.3 Gold Demand - In 2025, the global total gold demand reached a record high of 5002 tons, with investment demand as the core driving force. The total global gold investment demand rose to 2175 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84%. Global gold ETFs had a net increase of 801 tons, and the demand for physical gold (bars and coins) reached 1374 tons, with China and India accounting for over 50% of this demand. Jewelry demand was 1638 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.2%, and industrial demand was 322.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [13] - In 2025, China's gold consumption was 950.096 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.57%. Gold jewelry consumption was 363.836 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.61%; bars and coins consumption was 504.238 tons, a year - on - year increase of 35.14%; industrial and other uses of gold were 82.022 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.32% [13] 3.4 Central Bank Gold Purchases - From 2022 - 2024, global central banks increased their gold reserves by over 1000 tons each year, more than twice the average level from 2015 - 2019. By 2024, the proportion of central bank gold holdings in total demand had risen to nearly 25% (from 12% in 2015 - 2019). In 2025, global central bank net gold purchases were 863.25 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21% compared to 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, central banks increased their gold reserves by 230.25 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 37.2% but a 5.6% increase from the third quarter. Emerging market central banks led by China accelerated the de - dollarization of their reserves and continued to increase their gold holdings [16] 3.5 Gold and Silver Inventories - In 2025, SHFE gold inventory increased from about 15 tons at the beginning of the year to about 100 tons at the end of the year, reaching 104 tons on February 9. COMEX gold inventory was about 21.9 million ounces at the beginning of 2025, reached a high of about 45 million ounces in April, and then gradually declined to 36.26 million ounces (1128 tons) at the end of the year, and 35.29 million ounces on February 9 [18] - SHFE silver inventory decreased from over 1400 tons at the beginning of 2025 to about 519 tons on November 21, then fluctuated, and was 35 tons on February 9. COMEX silver inventory was a little over 300 million ounces at the beginning of 2025, reached nearly 500 million ounces in April, and then gradually declined to about 450 million ounces (about 14,000 tons) at the end of the year, and 390 million ounces (12,100 tons) on February 9 [23] - Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory was slightly more than 1200 tons at the beginning of 2025, reached a high of 1768 tons in early April, and then declined to 494 tons on January 30 and 450 tons on February 6 [27] 3.6 US Economic Data - In December 2025, the US consumer price index (CPI) increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest level since March 2021 [32] - In December 2025, the US unemployment rate was 4.4%, lower than 4.6% in November. Non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000. The total employment increase for the year was 584,000, the weakest since the pandemic [35] - In December 2025, US JOLTs job openings were 6.542 million, the lowest since September 2020. The non - farm job opening rate (seasonally adjusted) was 3.9% in December [37] - The University of Michigan consumer confidence index rebounded for two consecutive months from a low. In January 2026, it was 56.4, up from 52.9 in December 2025 [40] - In January 2026, the University of Michigan 1 - year inflation expectation was 4.0%, down from 4.2% previously, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was 3.3%, up from 3.2% previously [43] - In January 2026, the US manufacturing PMI was 52.6, returning to the expansion range after 10 consecutive months below 50. The ISM services PMI was 53.8, remaining above the boom - bust line for eight consecutive months [46] 3.7 Fed Interest Rate Expectations - On January 28, 2026, the Fed decided to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%. According to the CME "FedWatch" on February 9, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in March was 17.7%, and the probability of keeping the rate unchanged was 82.3% [50] 3.8 Factors Affecting Gold Prices - The US dollar exchange rate is a factor determining gold prices, but no detailed analysis is provided in the report [52] 3.9 Precious Metals Market Outlook - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair by President Trump on January 30 triggered a precious metals market sell - off, but the main reason was the large number of profit - taking positions after the previous continuous rise. However, due to geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties, the sell - off may not be sustainable. After the sharp rise and fall, the volatility of precious metals tends to narrow, but there is still a possibility of sharp fluctuations during the Spring Festival holiday [55]

美国就业指标能否改善 受特朗普言论影响，美元指数本周一度跌至四年低点，随后有所反弹，市场注意力现已转向美国核心就业数据。1月美国非农就业人口月度数据将于周五发 布，该数据将为判断劳动力市场健康状况及货币政策后续走向提供关键线索。美联储此前在连续三次降息后宣布维持利率不变，并称劳动力市场正开始企 稳。若数据表现疲软，则可能再度引发市场对降息的猜测。 荷兰国际集团ING经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利在报告中表示："市场仍对就业市场的走势持谨慎态度，并未受美联储偏乐观表态的影响，目前仍在定价今年两次 25个基点的降息预期。" 下周谷歌、亚马逊将发布业绩；多家央行将公布利率决议；贵金属市场能否企稳。 本周国际市场风云变幻，美联储按兵不动，美国总统特朗普提名下任美联储主席人选。美股涨跌互现，道指周跌0.42%，纳指周跌0.21%，标普500指数周涨 0.34%。欧洲三大股指分化。英国富时100指数涨0.79%，德国DAX 30指数跌1.45%，法国CAC 40指数跌0.20%。 下周看点颇多，投资者正评估美联储下一次降息的可能时点，美国就业数据重回市场焦点。经历了周五的跳水后，贵金属期货能否企稳同样受到关注。欧洲 央行、英国央 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the silver market is experiencing a supply shortage for five consecutive years, while industrial demand continues to grow, supporting price levels [2] - Analysts predict that the price of silver could reach $75, although profit-taking at the end of the year may lead to a price correction [2] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy and potential leadership changes could impact liquidity and market dynamics, with a key turning point expected around mid-2026 [1] Group 2 - The current trading price of silver is around 16.269 yuan per gram, reflecting a 3.22% increase, with a daily high of 16.418 yuan and a low of 15.755 yuan [1] - The DMI indicator shows a potential risk of a pullback in silver prices, but the overall upward trend remains strong, with support levels at 15.0-15.50 and resistance levels at 16.40-16.80 [3] - The weakening dollar and declining yields are contributing factors to the silver market's performance, affecting its attractiveness to overseas buyers [2]

Core Insights - Precious metals have reached historic highs, with gold surpassing $4000 and silver hitting a 45-year peak, marking a significant market focus recently [1] - Following a period of continuous gains, precious metals experienced sudden volatility, raising concerns among investors about potential declines from these high levels [1] - Some institutions have begun to adopt a cautious stance regarding the short-term outlook for precious metals [1]