交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-3-5 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，2月官方制造业PMI为50.2%，较上月上升1.1个百分点，重回扩张区间。 中东伊朗局势再度升级，美以展开军事进攻，目前霍尔木兹海峡航运中断，外盘原油跳空高开， 当前伊朗未给出解除封锁时间表，具体对原油后续影响和封锁时间相关，短期对聚烯烃估值支撑 显著。供需端，农膜方面，下游企业复工、需求恢复偏慢，包装膜刚需低负荷开工，预计元宵前 后快速恢复，管材方面陆续开工。当前LL交割品现货价7220（+170），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-135，升贴水比例-1.8%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存59.4万吨（-3.3），中性； • ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-3-4 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，2月官方制造业PMI为50.2%，较上月上升1.1个百分点，重回扩张区间。 中东伊朗局势再度升级，美以展开军事进攻，目前霍尔木兹海峡航运中断，外盘原油跳空高开， 当前伊朗未给出解除封锁时间表，具体对原油后续影响和封锁时间相关，短期对聚烯烃估值支撑 显著。供需端，农膜方面，下游企业复工、需求恢复偏慢，包装膜刚需低负荷开工，预计元宵前 后快速恢复，管材方面陆续开工。当前LL交割品现货价7050（+330），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-150，升贴水比例-2.1%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存62.7万吨（+25.9），偏空； ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2026-3-2 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，2月官方制造业PMI为50.2%，较上月上升1.1个百分点，重回扩张区间。 中东伊朗局势再度升级，美以展开军事进攻，目前霍尔木兹海峡航运中断，外盘原油跳空高开， 当前伊朗未给出解除封锁时间表，具体对原油后续影响和封锁时间相关，短期对聚烯烃估值支撑 显著。供需端，农膜方面，下游企业复工、需求恢复偏慢，包装膜刚需低负荷开工，预计元宵前 后快速恢复，管材方面陆续开工。当前LL交割品现货价6500（-100），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-97，升贴水比例-1.5%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存62.7万吨（+25.9），偏空； • ...

聚烯烃早报 2026-2-13 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，官方1月制造业PMI为49.3%，较上月回落0.8个百分点，落入收缩区间。 OPEC+2月1日部长级会议重申去年11月2日决定，因季节性需求疲软暂停2026年第一季度的增产计 划。当前原油回归震荡，前期因受伊朗等地缘政治扰动影响，走势波动大，聚烯烃跟随波动偏大。 供需端，临近春节，农膜方面，多数企业停工，整体订单少，包装膜企业同样多数停工。当前LL 交割品现货价6600（-0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-134，升贴水比例-2.0%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存36.7万吨（-3.6），偏多； • 4. 盘面： LLD ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the pre - Spring Festival off - season, downstream开工率continues to decline, with some factories shutting down for holidays. Pre - holiday demand support is limited. Supply - side weekly production remains high, increasing pressure and leading to inventory accumulation. After the Spring Festival, it is necessary to note that the planned maintenance volume in February and March is limited, and supply is expected to remain under high pressure. Attention should be paid to the intensity of continuous inventory transfer downward. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly within a range, with attention to the 6700 support level. The PP main contract will fluctuate weakly, with attention to the 6600 support level. The strategy is mainly to sell on rallies [8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Plastic 1.1 Market Changes - On February 6th, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6812 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.88%. The average price of LDPE was 8800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.94% compared to the previous period. The average price of HDPE was 7375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7018.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.02%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 206.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.63%. The May - September spread was - 52 yuan/ton [11] 1.2 Key Data Tracking 1.2.1 Month - to - Month Spread - On February 6th, 2026: the 1 - 5 month spread was 54 yuan/ton with a change of - 27 yuan/ton compared to January 30th; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 52 yuan/ton with a change of +3 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 2 yuan/ton with a change of +24 yuan/ton [18] 1.2.2 Spot Price - The prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, in Northeast China, the price of HDPE film decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and in North China, the price of LDPE film decreased by 75 yuan/ton [19] 1.2.3 Cost - Last week, WTI crude oil closed at 63.50 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.24 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 68.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.78 US dollars/barrel. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River Port was 1070 yuan/ton (no change) [22] 1.2.4 Profit - The profit of oil - based PE was - 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was 314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [27] 1.2.5 Supply - This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 85.91%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly polyethylene production was 71.24 tons, a decrease of 1.72%. The maintenance loss this week was 7.86 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons compared to the previous week [32] 1.2.6 2026 Production Capacity Expansion Plan - Multiple companies have production capacity expansion plans in 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 550 tons [35] 1.2.7 Maintenance Statistics - Many enterprises, such as Yanshan Petrochemical and Zhongyuan Petrochemical, have some production lines under maintenance, and some of the restart times are uncertain [36] 1.2.8 Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 30.18%, a decrease of 4.38% compared to the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 38.82%, a decrease of 3.25%. The operating rate of PE pipes was 23.67%, a decrease of 4.16% [38] 1.2.9 Downstream Production Ratio - Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 36.6%, which differs from the annual average by 2.9%. The data of low - pressure film differs significantly from the annual average, currently accounting for 11.5%, which differs from the annual average by 3.7% [42] 1.2.10 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 48.50 tons, an increase of 0.54 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.13% [44] 1.2.11 Warehouse Receipt - The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 9428 lots, an increase of 49 lots compared to the previous week [47] 2. PP 2.1 Market Changes - On February 6th, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6691 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 1.95% [51] 2.2 Key Data Tracking 2.2.1 Downstream Spot Price - The prices of various PP products and related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of PP granule T30S decreased by 7 yuan compared to the previous day [55] 2.2.2 Basis - On February 6th, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6640 yuan/ton (+2.13%). The PP basis closed at - 51 yuan/ton (with a change of 53 yuan/ton), and the May - September spread was - 32 yuan/ton (with a change of 1 yuan/ton) [57] 2.2.3 Month - to - Month Spread - On February 6th, 2026: the 1 - 5 month spread was - 5 yuan/ton with a change of +18 yuan/ton compared to January 30th; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 32 yuan/ton with a change of +1 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 37 yuan/ton with a change of - 19 yuan/ton [63] 2.2.4 Cost - Last week, WTI crude oil closed at 63.50 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.24 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 68.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.78 US dollars/barrel. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River Port was 1070 yuan/ton (no change) [66] 2.2.5 Profit - The profit of oil - based PP was - 626.13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78.01 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PP was - 161.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 79.61 yuan/ton [71] 2.2.6 Supply - This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 73.92%, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly production of PP pellets reached 76.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.89%. The weekly production of PP powder reached 5.66 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% [75] 2.2.7 Maintenance Statistics - Many enterprises, such as Qilu Petrochemical and Luoyang Petrochemical, have production lines under maintenance, and some of the restart times are uncertain [79] 2.2.8 Demand - This week, the average operating rate of PP downstream was 49.84% (- 2.24%). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 36.74% (- 5.30%), the operating rate of BOPP was 64.55% (+0.38%), the operating rate of injection molding was 53.02% (- 4.60%), and the operating rate of pipes was 33.70% (- 3.17%) [81] 2.2.9 Import and Export Profit - This week, the polypropylene import profit was - 351.35 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 18.62 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The export profit was - 46.57 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.63 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [87] 2.2.10 Inventory - This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 41.58 tons (+3.72%); the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies increased by 14.92% compared to the previous week; the inventory of traders decreased by 0.11% compared to the previous week; the port inventory decreased by 0.47% compared to the previous week [89] 2.2.11 Inventory of Downstream Products - This week, the finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 839.78 tons, a decrease of 7.94% compared to the previous week. The raw material inventory of BOPP was 15.04 days, an increase of 7.66% compared to the previous week [93] 2.2.12 Warehouse Receipt - The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 17204 lots, a decrease of 32 lots compared to the previous week [97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. The suspension of OPEC's production increase in Q1 and geopolitical factors affecting oil prices provide strong cost support, while industrial inventories are neutral. However, downstream demand is weak, resulting in a supply - demand imbalance [4][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: The official manufacturing PMI in January was 49.3%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling into the contraction range. OPEC+ suspended the production increase plan in Q1 2026. Affected by geopolitical factors, the crude oil trend is strong, driving polyolefins to fluctuate. Near the Spring Festival, the demand from downstream industries such as agricultural film and packaging film is weak. The current LLDPE delivery product spot price is 6750 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 168, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.4%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: PE comprehensive inventory is 40.3 tons (+5.4), neutral [4] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and the short position increases, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract disk fluctuates. With cost support and neutral industrial inventory, it is expected to fluctuate today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong crude oil [6] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand year - on - year [6] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, and the marginal change in supply - demand is sensitive [6] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the manufacturing PMI is in the contraction range, OPEC+ suspends production increase, and crude oil drives polyolefins. PDH device maintenance is relatively frequent. Near the Spring Festival, the demand for plastic weaving and pipes is weak. The current PP delivery product spot price is 6690 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 111, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.6%, which is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: PP comprehensive inventory is 41.6 tons (+1.5), which is relatively high [7] - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short, and the short position decreases, which is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract disk fluctuates. With cost support, neutral industrial inventory, and increased PDH device maintenance, it is expected to fluctuate today [7] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support and strong crude oil [8] - **Negative Factors**: Off - season for downstream demand [8] - **Main Logic**: Supply exceeds demand, and the marginal change in supply - demand is sensitive [8] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory Data - **LLDPE**: The spot delivery price is 6750 (unchanged), the 05 - contract futures price is 6918 (+53), and the basis is - 168 (-53). The PE comprehensive factory inventory is 40.3 tons (+5.4) [9] - **PP**: The spot delivery price is 6690 (unchanged), the 05 - contract futures price is 6801 (+71), and the basis is - 111 (-71). The PP comprehensive factory inventory is 41.6 tons (+1.5) [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an increasing trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [14] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 - 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption also generally increased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to be 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [16]

Report Title - Supply - side contradictions are prominent, and the LL1 - 5 reverse spread market continues: Polyolefin Monthly Report [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the bottom of crude oil prices may have emerged. Polyolefin overall profit declines, and the inventory at the upper - middle reaches starts to decrease. The main fundamental contradiction of polyolefins lies in low valuation, but the registered warrants are at the same level as in previous years. The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP spread at low prices. [16][17][18] - Next - month forecast: The reference trading range for polyethylene (L2601) is 6600 - 6900, and for polypropylene (PP2601) is 6300 - 6600. [17] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation and Cost**: OPEC+'s plan may support the bottom of crude oil prices. WTI crude oil dropped 3.95%, Brent crude oil dropped 3.76%, coal price remained unchanged, methanol rose 1.07%, ethylene dropped 3.31%, propylene rose 3.85%, and propane rose 5.54%. [16] - **Supply**: PE capacity utilization rate was 83.24%, up 0.12% month - on - month and 1.46% year - on - year, but 11.06% lower than the 5 - year average. PP capacity utilization rate was 77.92%, down 0.12% month - on - month but 4.70% higher than last year, and 12.01% lower than the 5 - year average. The polyethylene 2601 contract has only 400,000 tons of planned capacity, while the polypropylene 2601 contract has 1.45 million tons. [16] - **Imports and Exports**: In October, domestic PE imports were 1.0112 million tons, down 1.07% month - on - month and 16.22% year - on - year; PP imports were 169,200 tons, down 12.41% month - on - month and year - on - year. PE exports were 83,300 tons, down 16.04% month - on - month but up 35.30% year - on - year; PP exports were 206,400 tons, down 0.83% month - on - month but up 19.83% year - on - year. [16] - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE was 44.1%, down 1.67% month - on - month but up 3.04% year - on - year. The downstream operating rate of PP was 53.83%, up 2.30% month - on - month and 3.20% year - on - year. It is the seasonal peak season, and the overall operating rate has reached the same level as in previous years, with good demand for PE agricultural film raw materials. [17] - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory decreased by 7.67% month - on - month but increased by 14.70% compared with the same period last year; PE trader inventory decreased by 10.69% month - on - month and 5.10% compared with the same period last year. PP production enterprise inventory decreased by 5.78% month - on - month but increased by 24.38% compared with the same period last year; PP trader inventory decreased by 3.85% month - on - month but increased by 65.14%; PP port inventory increased by 0.31% month - on - month and 10.58% compared with the same period last year. [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the LL - PP spread at low prices [18] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Data Presentation**: The report presents multiple charts related to PE and PP, including the term structure, main contract prices, basis, 1 - 5 spreads, trading volume, open interest, registered warrants, and the spread between different varieties, etc. [34][37][42][44][50][53][59][66][69] 3.3 Cost - side - **Price Fluctuations**: Crude oil prices are bottom - oscillating. WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, coal, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and propane prices have different degrees of change. The report also shows the price trends of LPG, PDH production margin, and other related products. [16][83] 3.4 Polyethylene Supply - side - **Raw Materials and Capacity**: The report shows the proportion of PE production raw materials and the annual change in capacity. In 2025, a number of PE production projects have been put into production, with a total of 4.63 million tons of capacity put into production and 400,000 tons of planned but un - put - into - production capacity. [133][135] - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The capacity utilization rate of PE and the amount of production reduction due to maintenance are presented through charts. [136][138] 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - **Inventory Situation**: The report shows the trends of PE total inventory, production enterprise inventory, two - oil inventory, and trader inventory through charts. [144][145][147] - **Imports and Exports**: The monthly and cumulative import and export volumes of PE are shown, and the export volume of LLDPE is also presented. [150][152][155] 3.6 Polyethylene Demand - side - **Demand Structure**: The downstream demand structure of PE includes packaging film, hollow products, pipes, injection molding, agricultural film, etc., and the terminal demand structure is also presented. [162][164] - **Operating Rate and Orders**: The report shows the overall downstream operating rate of PE, the operating rate of each sub - industry, and the inventory and order - related data of some products. [166][167][172] 3.7 Polypropylene Supply - side - **Raw Materials and Capacity**: The proportion of PP production raw materials and the annual change in capacity are shown. In 2025, a number of PP production projects have been put into production, with a total of 4.95 million tons of capacity put into production and 1.45 million tons of planned but un - put - into - production capacity. [188][189] - **Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The capacity utilization rate of PP and the amount of production reduction due to maintenance are presented through charts. [190][192] 3.8 Polypropylene Inventory and Imports/Exports - **Inventory Situation**: The report shows the trends of PP total inventory, two - oil inventory, trader inventory, and port inventory through charts. [197][198] - **Exports**: The monthly and cumulative export volumes of PP are shown, and the export destinations of PP are also presented. The export volume to Southeast Asia is gradually recovering from the impact of the "trade war". [199][204] 3.9 Polypropylene Demand - side - **Demand Structure**: The downstream demand structure of PP includes drawing, high - low melt copolymerization, injection molding, BOPP, etc., and the terminal demand structure is also presented. [210][212] - **Operating Rate and Orders**: The report shows the overall downstream operating rate of PP, the operating rate of each sub - industry, and the inventory and order - related data of some products. [214][218][222]

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to trend slightly stronger with oscillations today, while PP is also expected to trend slightly stronger with oscillations [4][6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium - long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. From October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and reached a preliminary consensus. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, causing the oil price to rebound. In terms of supply and demand, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues, with stable production, while the rest of the film categories have completed restocking and production has declined. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7000 (+90), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is 31, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.4%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 56.5 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, indicating a bearish trend [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract rebounds with oscillations. China - US negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, Russian oil is under a new round of sanctions, the oil price rebounds, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will trend slightly stronger with oscillations today [4] - **Positive Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices; China - US talks reach a preliminary consensus [5] - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year; There are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand are driven by domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The medium - long - term pattern of "increasing supply and decreasing demand" for crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. From October 25th to 26th, China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur and reached a preliminary consensus. The US and Europe imposed a new round of sanctions on Russian oil, causing the oil price to rebound. In terms of supply and demand, the demand for plastic weaving is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes has recovered. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6600 (+50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 62, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.9%, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 63.9 million tons (-4.0), which is neutral [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a bearish trend [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, indicating a bearish trend [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract rebounds with oscillations. China - US negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, Russian oil is under a new round of sanctions, the oil price rebounds, downstream peak - season demand is supported, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will trend slightly stronger with oscillations today [6] - **Positive Factors**: New sanctions on Russian oil lead to a rebound in oil prices; China - US talks reach a preliminary consensus [7] - **Negative Factors**: Demand is weaker year - on - year; There are many new production projects in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Cost and demand are driven by domestic macro - policies [7] Spot and Futures Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 7000 (change: +20), the price of the 01 contract is 6969 (change: - 30), the basis is 31 (change: +50), the warehouse receipt is 12958 (change: 0), the comprehensive PE factory inventory is 56.5 million tons (change: 0.0), and the PE social inventory is 54.5 million tons (change: 0.0) [8] - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6600 (change: - 20), the price of the 01 contract is 6662 (change: - 29), the basis is - 62 (change: +9), the warehouse receipt is 14586 (change: 0), the comprehensive PP factory inventory is 63.9 million tons (change: 0.0), and the PP social inventory is 33.0 million tons (change: 0.0) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have changed. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 3584.5, the output is 2773.8, the net import is 1360.32, and the apparent consumption is 4134.12. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4319.5 [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net imports, apparent consumption, and other indicators have changed. For example, in 2024, the production capacity is 4418.5, the output is 3425, the net import is 360, and the apparent consumption is 3785. The expected production capacity in 2025 is 4906 [15]