Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the pre - Spring Festival off - season, downstream开工率continues to decline, with some factories shutting down for holidays. Pre - holiday demand support is limited. Supply - side weekly production remains high, increasing pressure and leading to inventory accumulation. After the Spring Festival, it is necessary to note that the planned maintenance volume in February and March is limited, and supply is expected to remain under high pressure. Attention should be paid to the intensity of continuous inventory transfer downward. It is expected that the PE main contract will fluctuate weakly within a range, with attention to the 6700 support level. The PP main contract will fluctuate weakly, with attention to the 6600 support level. The strategy is mainly to sell on rallies [8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Plastic 1.1 Market Changes - On February 6th, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6812 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.88%. The average price of LDPE was 8800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.94% compared to the previous period. The average price of HDPE was 7375 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7018.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.02%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 206.89 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27.63%. The May - September spread was - 52 yuan/ton [11] 1.2 Key Data Tracking 1.2.1 Month - to - Month Spread - On February 6th, 2026: the 1 - 5 month spread was 54 yuan/ton with a change of - 27 yuan/ton compared to January 30th; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 52 yuan/ton with a change of +3 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was - 2 yuan/ton with a change of +24 yuan/ton [18] 1.2.2 Spot Price - The prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of change. For example, in Northeast China, the price of HDPE film decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and in North China, the price of LDPE film decreased by 75 yuan/ton [19] 1.2.3 Cost - Last week, WTI crude oil closed at 63.50 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.24 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 68.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.78 US dollars/barrel. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River Port was 1070 yuan/ton (no change) [22] 1.2.4 Profit - The profit of oil - based PE was - 695 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PE was 314 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton [27] 1.2.5 Supply - This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 85.91%, an increase of 0.56 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly polyethylene production was 71.24 tons, a decrease of 1.72%. The maintenance loss this week was 7.86 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons compared to the previous week [32] 1.2.6 2026 Production Capacity Expansion Plan - Multiple companies have production capacity expansion plans in 2026, with a total planned production capacity of 550 tons [35] 1.2.7 Maintenance Statistics - Many enterprises, such as Yanshan Petrochemical and Zhongyuan Petrochemical, have some production lines under maintenance, and some of the restart times are uncertain [36] 1.2.8 Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 30.18%, a decrease of 4.38% compared to the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 38.82%, a decrease of 3.25%. The operating rate of PE pipes was 23.67%, a decrease of 4.16% [38] 1.2.9 Downstream Production Ratio - Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 36.6%, which differs from the annual average by 2.9%. The data of low - pressure film differs significantly from the annual average, currently accounting for 11.5%, which differs from the annual average by 3.7% [42] 1.2.10 Inventory - This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 48.50 tons, an increase of 0.54 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 1.13% [44] 1.2.11 Warehouse Receipt - The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 9428 lots, an increase of 49 lots compared to the previous week [47] 2. PP 2.1 Market Changes - On February 6th, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6691 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton compared to the previous weekend, a week - on - week decrease of 1.95% [51] 2.2 Key Data Tracking 2.2.1 Downstream Spot Price - The prices of various PP products and related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of PP granule T30S decreased by 7 yuan compared to the previous day [55] 2.2.2 Basis - On February 6th, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6640 yuan/ton (+2.13%). The PP basis closed at - 51 yuan/ton (with a change of 53 yuan/ton), and the May - September spread was - 32 yuan/ton (with a change of 1 yuan/ton) [57] 2.2.3 Month - to - Month Spread - On February 6th, 2026: the 1 - 5 month spread was - 5 yuan/ton with a change of +18 yuan/ton compared to January 30th; the 5 - 9 month spread was - 32 yuan/ton with a change of +1 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 month spread was 37 yuan/ton with a change of - 19 yuan/ton [63] 2.2.4 Cost - Last week, WTI crude oil closed at 63.50 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 2.24 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 68.05 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.78 US dollars/barrel. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River Port was 1070 yuan/ton (no change) [66] 2.2.5 Profit - The profit of oil - based PP was - 626.13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78.01 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of coal - based PP was - 161.35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 79.61 yuan/ton [71] 2.2.6 Supply - This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 73.92%, a decrease of 0.66 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly production of PP pellets reached 76.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.89%. The weekly production of PP powder reached 5.66 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% [75] 2.2.7 Maintenance Statistics - Many enterprises, such as Qilu Petrochemical and Luoyang Petrochemical, have production lines under maintenance, and some of the restart times are uncertain [79] 2.2.8 Demand - This week, the average operating rate of PP downstream was 49.84% (- 2.24%). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 36.74% (- 5.30%), the operating rate of BOPP was 64.55% (+0.38%), the operating rate of injection molding was 53.02% (- 4.60%), and the operating rate of pipes was 33.70% (- 3.17%) [81] 2.2.9 Import and Export Profit - This week, the polypropylene import profit was - 351.35 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 18.62 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The export profit was - 46.57 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2.63 US dollars/ton compared to the previous week [87] 2.2.10 Inventory - This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 41.58 tons (+3.72%); the inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies increased by 14.92% compared to the previous week; the inventory of traders decreased by 0.11% compared to the previous week; the port inventory decreased by 0.47% compared to the previous week [89] 2.2.11 Inventory of Downstream Products - This week, the finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 839.78 tons, a decrease of 7.94% compared to the previous week. The raw material inventory of BOPP was 15.04 days, an increase of 7.66% compared to the previous week [93] 2.2.12 Warehouse Receipt - The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 17204 lots, a decrease of 32 lots compared to the previous week [97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Polyolefins face significant upward pressure and are expected to trade in a range. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 6,500, while the PP main contract is expected to be weakly oscillating, with support at 6,200. The LP spread is expected to widen [8][9]. - Plastics still have supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in an oscillatory manner [10]. - Polypropylene faces significant trend pressure and is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [51]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Plastic Market Review - On December 12, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,476 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.82%. The average price of LDPE was 8,683.33 yuan/ton, down 2.43% month - on - month; the average price of HDPE was 7,200 yuan/ton, down 1.54% month - on - month; and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 6,768.89 yuan/ton, down 3.30% month - on - month. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 282.89 yuan/ton, down 13.22% month - on - month, and the January - May spread was - 68 yuan/ton [12]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: The January - May spread on December 12 was - 10 yuan/ton, with a change of 58 yuan; the May - September spread was - 33 yuan/ton, with a change of 13 yuan; the September - January spread was 43 yuan/ton, with a change of - 71 yuan [20]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline [21][22]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $57.53 per barrel, up $2.61 from last week; Brent crude oil closed at $61.22 per barrel, down $2.64 from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton, unchanged [24]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 481 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based PE was - 176 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week [29]. - **Supply**: This week, China's polyethylene production capacity utilization rate was 84.11%, up 0.06 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 681,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%. The maintenance loss this week was 89,900 tons, down 90 tons from last week [32]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have put into production or are planning to put into production polyethylene plants in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 5.43 million tons [35]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Some enterprises' polyethylene production lines are in a state of shutdown for maintenance, and the restart time is uncertain [36]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall domestic agricultural film capacity utilization rate was 46.40%, down 1.72% from last week; the PE packaging film capacity utilization rate was 49.59%, down 0.63% from last weekend; the PE pipe capacity utilization rate was 31.00%, down 0.83% from last weekend [38]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 38.9%, with a difference of 3.4% from the annual average level; the data of low - pressure pipes differ significantly from the annual average, currently accounting for 11.8%, with a difference of 1.4% from the annual average level [41]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 456,500 tons, down 2,990 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 6.15% [44]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 11,332 lots, unchanged from last week [48]. Polypropylene Market Review - On December 12, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,129 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan/ton from last weekend, a month - on - month decrease of 2.51% [52]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various polypropylene - related products and other plastics showed different degrees of decline or change [54][56]. - **Basis**: On December 12, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6,253.33 yuan/ton, down 2.51%. The PP basis was 124 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan [58]. - **Month - spread**: The January - May spread on December 12 was - 39 yuan/ton, with a change of 56 yuan; the May - September spread was - 43 yuan/ton, with a change of - 5 yuan; the September - January spread was 82 yuan/ton, with a change of - 51 yuan [63]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $57.53 per barrel, up $2.61 from last week; Brent crude oil closed at $61.22 per barrel, down $2.64 from last week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton, unchanged [68]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 604.22 yuan/ton, down 16.45 yuan/ton from last weekend; the profit of coal - based PP was - 568.80 yuan/ton, down 52.04 yuan/ton from last weekend [73]. - **Supply**: This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's PP petrochemical enterprises was 78.25%, up 0.64 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 807,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.83%. The weekly output of PP powder was 71,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.20% [75]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Some polypropylene production lines of enterprises are in a state of shutdown for maintenance, and the restart time is mostly uncertain [78]. - **Demand**: This week, the average downstream capacity utilization rate was 53.99%, up 0.06%. The capacity utilization rate of plastic weaving was 44.06%, down 0.04%; the capacity utilization rate of BOPP was 62.93%, up 0.33%; the capacity utilization rate of injection molding was 58.57%, down 0.38%; the capacity utilization rate of pipes was 42.30%, unchanged [80]. - **Export - Import Profit**: This week, the polypropylene import profit was - $268.68 per ton, down $21.72 from last week; the export profit was - $14.00 per ton, down $1.70 from last week [85]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic polypropylene inventory was 537,100 tons, down 4.97%. The inventory of the two major state - owned oil companies decreased by 1.22% month - on - month; the trader inventory decreased by 5.69% month - on - month; the port inventory increased by 5.25% month - on - month [87]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 15,747 lots, down 15 lots from last week [95].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is under pressure to continue lowering interest rates due to weak employment data, with a potential third consecutive rate cut in December being discussed [1][2] - The ISM services PMI rose to 52.4 in October, indicating economic expansion and potentially alleviating pressure on the Fed to cut rates further [2] - The manufacturing PMI, however, declined to 48.7 in October, suggesting ongoing weakness in the manufacturing sector, which may counterbalance the positive signals from the services sector [3] Group 2 - The services sector, which is the largest part of the U.S. economy, showed resilience with improvements in business activity and new orders, potentially allowing the Fed more time to assess the economic situation [2] - Despite the positive services data, concerns remain regarding the manufacturing sector's performance, with several industries experiencing contraction [3] - The Fed's balancing act between stabilizing prices and achieving full employment continues to create uncertainty regarding future monetary policy decisions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The upward pressure on polyolefins is relatively large, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within the range, with attention to the 6800 support level. The PP main contract is expected to be weakly oscillating, with attention to the 6500 support level. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - There are still supply - demand contradictions in plastics, and it is expected to operate in an oscillating manner [9]. - The trend pressure on PP is relatively large, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50]. Summary by Directory Plastic 1. Weekly Market Review - On November 7, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6802 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41%. The average price of LDPE was 9216.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.07%. The average price of HDPE was 7550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7335.88 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.16%. The LLDPE South China basis was 533.88 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.13%. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton (- 4) [8][11]. 2. Key Data Tracking - **Month - to - Month Spread**: On November 7, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 79 yuan/ton (- 4), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 46 yuan/ton (+7), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 125 yuan/ton (- 3) [18]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various plastic products in different regions showed different degrees of decline on November 7, 2025 [19][20]. - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at 59.84 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.04 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 63.70 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.88 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1110 yuan/ton (+30) [22]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton from the previous month. The profit of coal - based PE was 41 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from the previous month [27]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 82.59%, an increase of 1.72 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 66.07 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.67%. The maintenance loss this week was 9.30 tons, a decrease of 1.91 tons from the previous week [32]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Many enterprises have completed production or are in the process of production, and some are planned to be put into production in December 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 543 tons [35]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 49.96%, an increase of 0.43% from the previous week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 50.78%, a decrease of 0.52% from the previous weekend. The operating rate of PE pipes was 32.67%, a decrease of 0.50% from the previous weekend [38]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 33.4%, with a difference of 1.9% from the annual average level. The data of low - pressure film is significantly different from the annual average, currently accounting for 8.2%, with a difference of 1.6% from the annual average level [41]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 52.74 tons, a decrease of 0.74 tons from the end of last month, a month - on - month decrease of 1.38% [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,668 lots, a decrease of 37 lots from the previous week [47]. PP 1. Weekly Market Review - On November 7, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a month - on - month decrease of 1.91% [52]. 2. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of PP granules, PP powder, and other products showed different degrees of changes on November 7, 2025 [55]. - **Basis**: On November 7, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6706.67 yuan/ton (- 16.66). The PP basis was 243 yuan/ton (+109), and the basis widened. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton (- 26), and the month - to - month spread narrowed [57]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: On November 7, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 110 yuan/ton (- 26), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 41 yuan/ton (- 22), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 151 yuan/ton (+48) [63]. - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at 59.84 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.04 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. Brent crude oil closed at 63.70 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.88 US dollars/barrel from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1110 yuan/ton (+30) [68]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 559.82 yuan/ton, an increase of 47.09 yuan/ton from the previous weekend. The profit of coal - based PP was - 405 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135.80 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [73]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 77.78%, an increase of 0.72 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 79.65 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.93%. The weekly output of PP powder was 7.66 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06% [77]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' production lines are in a state of shutdown or maintenance [80]. - **Demand**: This week, the average operating rate of downstream industries was 53.14% (+0.52). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.46% (+0.26%), the operating rate of BOPP was 62.45% (+0.88%), the operating rate of injection molding was 59.13% (+0.07%), and the operating rate of pipes was 37.30% (+0.50%) [82]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 347.69 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.66 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was - 27.46 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 9.86 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week [87]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 59.99 tons (+0.81%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 5.55% month - on - month; the inventory of traders increased by 7.02% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 1.07% month - on - month [90]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,629 lots, an increase of 60 lots from the previous week [103].

Economic Indicators - The US services PMI rose to 52.4 in October, up from 50 in September, indicating economic expansion and surpassing market expectations of 50.8[2] - The services PMI corresponds to an annualized GDP growth rate of 1.2%[2] - The manufacturing PMI decreased to 48.7 in October from 49.1 in September, below the expected 49.5, indicating contraction[2] Employment and Inflation - ADP private sector employment increased by 42,000 in October, recovering from a loss of 29,000 in September, suggesting a slowdown in job losses[1] - The price index for services rose to 70, the highest since 2022, indicating persistent inflation pressures in the services sector[2] - Core inflation is beginning to stabilize due to tariff transmission and reduced labor supply[1] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to implement two rate cuts this year, with a potential pause in December, targeting a year-end federal funds rate around 3.8% (target range 3.75%-4%) [1] - Further rate cuts may occur next year, with a target federal funds rate of 3.25%-3.5% by year-end as economic growth stabilizes and inflation recedes[1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views Plastic - In the transition phase between the off - season and peak season, the plastic 2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The recommended range for attention is 7200 - 7500, and it is advised to go short on rallies. Key factors to monitor include downstream demand, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, Sino - US talks, domestic policies, and crude oil price fluctuations [5]. PP - The PP futures face significant upward pressure. In the short term, the PP2509 contract is expected to fluctuate. The recommended range for attention is 6900 - 7200, and it is advised to go short on rallies. Key factors to monitor are similar to those for plastic [7]. Summary by Directory Plastic Weekly Market Review - On August 15, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7351 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton from the previous week. The average price of LDPE was 9633.33 yuan/ton, a 1.05% week - on - week increase; HDPE was 8012.50 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase; and the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7525.29 yuan/ton, a 0.67% increase. The LLDPE South China basis was 174.29 yuan/ton, a 5.94% decrease, and the 6 - 9 spread was 22 yuan/ton (down 48) [5][9]. Key Data Tracking - **Cost**: WTI crude oil closed at $62.29 per barrel, down $1.06 from the previous week; Brent crude was at $66.13 per barrel, down $0.19. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1080 yuan/ton (up 20) [5][19]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 164 yuan/ton, up 188 yuan/ton from the previous week; coal - based PE was 930 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton. It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE will strengthen and that of coal - based PE will weaken [24]. - **Supply**: China's polyethylene production capacity utilization rate was 84.20%, up 0.12 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output was 66.11 tons, a 0.14% increase. The maintenance loss was 7.22 tons, down 0.65 tons [27]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of agricultural film was 13.82%, up 0.75%; PE packaging film was 49.07%, down 0.23%; and PE pipes was 30.00%, up 1.00% [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.86 tons, down 0.71 tons from the previous week, a 1.23% decrease [5][37]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 7345 lots, up 1523 lots from the previous week [41]. PP Weekly Market Review - On August 15, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 7084 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous week. The spot price of PP reported by Shengyi was 7246.67 yuan/ton (unchanged). The PP basis was 163 yuan/ton (down 22), and the 5 - 9 spread was 24 yuan/ton (down 2) [7][45]. Key Data Tracking - **Cost**: Similar to plastic, WTI and Brent crude oil prices decreased, and the anthracite price at the Yangtze River port increased [5][58]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 149.67 yuan/ton, up 193.84 yuan/ton from the previous week; coal - based PP was 439.56 yuan/ton, down 79.73 yuan/ton [7][62]. - **Supply**: China's PP petrochemical enterprise capacity utilization rate was 77.91%, up 0.60 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets was 78.31 tons, a 0.77% increase; PP powder was 7.00 tons, a 3.41% increase [7][67]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate was 49.35% (up 0.30%). The operating rates of plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, and pipes were 41.40% (up 0.30%), 61.30% (up 0.33%), 56.73% (unchanged), and 36.30% (up 0.07%) respectively [7][74]. - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene was - $525.85 per ton, down $5.42 from the previous week; the export profit was - $12.76 per ton, down $3.02. The import window was closed, and the export window was open [78]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of polypropylene was 58.75 tons (+0.07%); the inventory of the two major oil companies increased by 2.60% week - on - week; the trader inventory decreased by 4.06%; and the port inventory decreased by 0.98%. The finished - product inventory of large plastic - weaving enterprises was 913.87 tons, a 2.70% decrease, and the BOPP raw - material inventory was 8.96 days, a 0.11% increase [80][82]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On August 5, the number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 12860 lots, up 320 lots from the previous week [86].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views Plastic - Maintains a weak reality, expected to fluctuate within a range. The 2509 contract of plastic is expected to trade within the short - term range of 7200 - 7500, and it is recommended to short at high prices [5]. PP - Faces significant trend pressure, short - term oscillation is weak. The PP2509 is expected to trade within the range of 6900 - 7200 in the short term [6]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On August 1st, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7317 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last month, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%. LDPE average price was 9516.67 yuan/ton, down 0.52% month - on - month; HDPE average price was 7975 yuan/ton, down 1.69% month - on - month; the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7508.24 yuan/ton, down 0.31% month - on - month. The LLDPE South China basis was 191.24 yuan/ton, down 29.37% month - on - month, and the 6 - 9 month spread was 111 yuan/ton (+81). The basis shrank and the month spread widened [5][8]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 67.26 US dollars/barrel this week, up 2.29 US dollars/barrel from last month; Brent crude oil closed at 69.52 US dollars/barrel, up 2.89 US dollars/barrel from last month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1050 yuan/ton (+20). The profit of oil - based PE was - 490 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from last month; the profit of coal - based PE was 1195 yuan/ton, down 358 yuan/ton from last month. It is expected that the profit of oil - based PE will run weakly and the profit of coal - based PE will run strongly [5][18][23]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 81.09%, up 4.65 percentage points from last month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 63.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.32%. The maintenance of petrochemical enterprise equipment remained at a high level this week. The maintenance loss this week was 9.14 tons, down 2.21 tons from last week [5][26]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 12.63%, up 0.28% from last month; the operating rate of PE packaging film was 48.70%, down 0.74% from last month; the operating rate of PE pipes was 28.67%, down 0.34% from last month [5][30]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises was 56.17 tons at the end of this month, up 9.70 tons from the end of last month, a month - on - month increase of 20.87% [5][35]. Main Operating Logic - In July, affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution, coal and downstream commodities rose significantly, driving the PE market to rebound. But as the sentiment cooled, the market price corrected, and the market trading returned to fundamentals. There was new production capacity put into operation in July, and the production capacity will continue to increase in the second half of the year, so the supply pressure remains high. The maintenance loss this month remained at a high level but showed an obvious decline. The operating rate of downstream agricultural film is expected to increase due to the approaching peak season of plastic film. The operating rates of protective film and pipes remain stable. The low - level social inventory provides some support to the market [5]. PP Market Changes - On August 1st, the closing price of polypropylene 2509 was 7098 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from last month. The spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 7290 yuan/ton (+0.16%) [6][43][48]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 67.26 US dollars/barrel this week, up 2.29 US dollars/barrel from last month; Brent crude oil closed at 69.52 US dollars/barrel, up 2.89 US dollars/barrel from last month. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1050 yuan/ton (+20). The profit of oil - based PP was - 473.06 yuan/ton, down 14.35 yuan/ton from last month; the profit of coal - based PP was 684.71 yuan/ton, down 347.77 yuan/ton from last month [6][56][60]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 76.94%, down 0.50 percentage points from last month. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 77.33 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 6.50 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.39% [6][64]. - **Demand**: This week, the average operating rate of downstream industries was 48.40% (+0.03). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 41.10% (-2.00), the operating rate of BOPP was 60.80% (+0%), the operating rate of injection molding was 55.80% (+0.22%), and the operating rate of pipes was 36.17% (-0.30%) [6][70]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 56.48 tons (-2.72%); the inventory of two major oil companies decreased by 5.44% month - on - month; the inventory of traders increased by 4.02% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 7.14% month - on - month [6][75]. Main Operating Logic - In July, affected by macro - policies such as anti - involution, coal and downstream commodities rose significantly, driving the PP market to rebound. But as the sentiment cooled, the market price corrected, and the market trading returned to fundamentals. Although there were intensive maintenance activities in July, they were not enough to relieve the supply pressure. The operating rates of downstream industries such as plastic weaving fluctuated slightly, and the demand remained weak. It is expected that the PP market will be mainly driven by fundamentals, and the PP2509 is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6].