Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that the global stock market will continue its bull market into 2026, but the index returns will be lower than in 2025, with a broader diversification in the market as AI benefits spread from core tech giants to a wider range of industries [1][2] Economic Environment - The global economy is expected to maintain a comprehensive expansion in 2026, supported by further moderate easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, providing solid support for the stock market [2] Return Expectations - According to regional market capitalization weighting, the expected price return for the global stock market in 2026 is 13%, with a total return including dividends reaching 15%, primarily driven by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [3][8] Market Cycle Stages - The stock market cycle is categorized into four stages: "Despair" (bear market), "Hope" (valuation-driven rebound), "Growth" (longest phase driven by earnings), and "Optimism" (increased investor confidence leading to valuation rises) [4] Market Trends - The report notes a significant broadening trend in the global stock market in 2025, which is expected to continue into 2026, breaking the previous highly concentrated market structure [9][10] Performance of Major Markets - In 2025, for the first time in nearly 15 years, U.S. stocks underperformed, with total returns in Europe, China, and Asia nearly double that of the U.S. market [10][11] Regional Performance Predictions - In 2026, U.S. stocks are expected to slightly underperform compared to global markets, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) and MSCI Emerging Markets indices projected to achieve total returns of 18%, surpassing the expected 15% for the S&P 500 [12] Investment Styles - The U.S. market remains dominated by growth stocks, while non-U.S. markets are seeing better performance from value stocks, indicating a shift from the past decade's growth stock dominance [13] Sector Performance - The trend of broadening returns is evident, with technology and finance leading in 2025, while real estate and healthcare lagged, reflecting the emergence of quality stocks within both growth and value sectors [14] Concentration of Earnings - The contribution of the top seven tech giants to the S&P 500's earnings is expected to decrease from 50% in 2025 to 46% in 2026, with the earnings growth of the remaining 493 companies increasing from 7% to 9%, indicating a further decline in industry concentration [15] AI Benefits Expansion - In 2026, the benefits of AI are expected to spread from core tech giants to a broader range of industries and companies, particularly those that can leverage AI and related technologies to enhance profitability and productivity [16][20] Market Dynamics - The current tech stock enthusiasm is not seen as a bubble, as today's tech giants possess stronger balance sheets and cash flows compared to the 2000 internet bubble [17] Investor Behavior - The correlation of stocks among the five major AI hyperscalers has dropped from 80% to 20%, indicating that investors are becoming more selective about which companies to invest in within the tech sector [18] Cross-Industry Growth - The spillover effects of tech capital expenditures are expected to drive growth in non-tech sectors such as industrials, materials, and finance, creating a cross-industry growth wave termed "AI + Industry" [21]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs expects the global stock market to continue its bull market into 2026, with a market capitalization-weighted total return rate of 15%, primarily driven by earnings growth rather than valuation expansion [4][5][10]. Economic Environment - The global economy is projected to maintain a comprehensive expansion in 2026, supported by further moderate easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve, providing solid support for the stock market [5][6]. - The current market is defined as being in the "optimistic" phase of the cycle, characterized by increased investor confidence and potential upward pressure on valuations [5][6]. Market Trends - The report indicates a significant broadening trend in the global stock market, with non-U.S. markets expected to outperform U.S. stocks, breaking the previous concentration pattern [4][10]. - In 2025, it was noted that for the first time in nearly 15 years, U.S. stocks underperformed compared to other major markets, with total returns in Europe, China, and Asia nearly double that of the U.S. [10][11]. Earnings Growth - Goldman Sachs forecasts that all regions will achieve sustained positive earnings growth in 2026, with the S&P 500 expected to see a 12% growth, STOXX 600 at 5%, Japan's TOPIX at 9%, and Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) at 16% [8][10]. - The contribution of the top seven tech giants to S&P 500 earnings is expected to decrease from 50% in 2025 to 46% in 2026, indicating a further decline in industry concentration [11]. AI Dividend - The AI dividend is anticipated to further expand in 2026, benefiting a broader range of industries and companies beyond core tech giants, particularly those that can leverage AI to enhance profitability and productivity [4][12][16]. - The spillover effects of tech capital expenditures are expected to drive growth in industrial, materials, and financial sectors, creating a cross-industry growth wave termed "AI + industry" [16]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a shift in focus among investors towards AI beneficiaries outside the tech sector, as competition intensifies and cost structures evolve within the AI landscape [14][15]. - Historical data suggests that in the absence of a recession, even with high valuations, the stock market is unlikely to experience significant pullbacks or bear markets [6].

Core Viewpoint - The capital market operates in cycles, with both bull and bear markets, and companies can strategically manage their market value by adapting to these cycles [2][3] Bull Market Strategies - In a bull market, companies can take advantage of overvalued stock prices to raise capital at a lower cost through methods such as: - Issuing new shares or targeted placements to expand capital and stabilize high stock prices [4] - Using stock-for-stock mergers to acquire non-listed companies, leveraging high valuations [4] - Injecting quality assets through private placements [5] - Reducing shareholdings by major shareholders to help correct overvalued stock prices [6] - Utilizing hedging tools like stock index futures to mitigate systemic risks [6] Bear Market Strategies - In a bear market, companies should focus on "buying" strategies to enhance competitiveness and restore investor confidence, including: - Stock buybacks to stabilize and increase stock prices [7] - Major shareholders or management committing to not sell shares to maintain investor confidence [7] - Engaging in mergers and acquisitions to capitalize on low valuations [8] - Using stock index futures to hedge against risks by taking long positions [8] - Opportunistic hostile takeovers by funds targeting undervalued companies [8] - Acquiring "shell" companies to facilitate easier IPOs during market downturns [8] - Implementing equity incentives or employee stock ownership plans to align interests [9] Value Management Techniques - Value management can be categorized into short-term and long-term goals: - Short-term strategies focus on stabilizing market value and reducing volatility, including various financing methods and hedging techniques [10] - Long-term strategies aim for stable growth in market value and shareholder returns, primarily through investments and restructuring [11] - As the Chinese capital market matures, the range of financial innovation products will expand, allowing companies to apply these strategies based on market conditions and corporate capital strategies [11]

Group 1 - The stock market has experienced significant downturns since 2021, with many Chinese concept stocks dropping over 90% during extreme panic events in March and October 2022, affecting even top A-share companies like Moutai [1] - There is a prevalent sentiment among individuals expressing dissatisfaction with the current business environment and job market, leading to a loss of confidence in the stock market and larger institutions [1][2] - The perception of the stock market as a negative environment is a psychological phenomenon, where past experiences influence current beliefs, despite the cyclical nature of business operations and market emotions [3] Group 2 - The belief that current difficulties will persist into the future reflects a linear thinking error, ignoring the potential for improvement and growth in specific sectors [2][3] - Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, many companies continue to see revenue and profit growth, indicating that investors should focus on opportunities rather than complaints about the broader market [3] - A historical perspective suggests that the current era is one of the best times to live, ranking favorably in terms of market economy and peace, which counters the prevailing negative sentiment [4] Group 3 - The mindset of individuals can often be gauged through their discussions about the current environment, with those expressing negativity being less likely to engage in productive conversations [6]

Group 1 - The current market situation resembles that of 2020, with significant declines followed by rapid rebounds [1][3] - The market has shifted its focus from 3000 points to around 3300 points, with fluctuations occurring within this range over the past seven months [1] - The expectation is that the market will experience a similar pattern to 2020, with a potential upward trend as negative factors diminish and positive factors emerge [3][5] Group 2 - The lowest point for this year is projected to be around 3040 points, which may also serve as the lowest point for the next three years [3] - The market is anticipated to break through 3674 points, suggesting a significant upward movement as investors begin to enter the market [3] - The belief in market cycles is emphasized, with the notion that the market will not experience slow, steady growth but rather rapid surges [5][7] Group 3 - The market is expected to move in the direction of least resistance, which is upward, although the timing of this movement remains uncertain [7] - Many investors lack the ability to navigate market cycles, which is more related to experience and understanding than technical skills [7] - Patience is highlighted as a crucial factor for investors awaiting significant market rebounds [7]