看好芯片自主化投资机会的投资者，可借道科创50ETF易方达（588080）、芯片ETF易方达 （516350）等跟踪以上指数的产品一键布局产业链龙头。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 1月8日开盘30分钟，A股三大指数低开后均有所反弹，以半导体、国产算力产业链为代表的硬科技 板块表现亮眼。截至10:00，科创50指数上涨2.4%，中证芯片产业指数上涨2.1%。 当前，国产芯片行业迎来密集的资本化进程。继壁仞科技上市后，天数智芯也计划于1月8日在港交 所挂牌上市。此外，燧原科技A股IPO辅导工作已于1月1日完成，摩尔线程与沐曦股份则在2025年年底 已先后登陆A股科创板。 科创50指数由科创板中市值大、流动性好的50只股票组成，数字芯片设计与集成电路制造合计占比 超50%，成分股包括众多科创板硬科技龙头；中证芯片产业指数则由50只业务涉及芯片设计、制造、 ...

12月9日，美国总统特朗普通过社交媒体发声，称将允许英伟达向中国"经批准的客户"出口H200人工智能芯片。这一政策调整，还附带了特殊条件——相 关销售收入的25%需上缴美国政府。 消息引发全球科技界与市场的广泛关注，市场纷纷猜测，美国是要放松对华高科技产品出口了？ 客观来讲，作为H100芯片的升级版，H200芯片的单卡性能比此前获准对华出口的H20芯片（仅为H100算力的80%）性能更优，可以缓解中国AI产业的算 力瓶颈。 但美国突然松口还得全面看。中国外交学院外交学系教授苏浩分析，美国此次政策调整，是商业利益与政治图谋共同作用的结果，"一方面英伟达离不开 中国市场，一方面美国仍不想放弃遏制中国芯片产业发展。" 中国已是全球最大的芯片消费市场，英伟达等美国科技企业当然心知肚明。数据很能说明问题：中国市场曾为英伟达贡献了超170亿美元的年收入，但美 国的出口限制已导致英伟达对华芯片销售陷入停滞。今年11月，英伟达CEO黄仁勋就坦言，"我预测英伟达在中国市场的销售额将为零。下一季度为零， 再下一季度还是零"。 英伟达官网 新华社 发 1 这次美国突然对H200芯片"松绑"，还留了一手。苏浩说，美国最先进芯片的对华 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations regarding semiconductor exports, particularly focusing on Trump's policies that require U.S. companies to pay a share of their profits to the U.S. government in exchange for access to the Chinese market [3][5][9]. Group 1: U.S. Government Policies - Trump announced that NVIDIA could export advanced H200 AI chips to China under the condition that the chips meet U.S. national security standards and that NVIDIA pays 25% of its profits to the U.S. government [3]. - This approach reflects a broader strategy where U.S. AI companies, including AMD and Intel, must comply with similar conditions to access the Chinese market [3][5]. - Trump's policies indicate a need for increased fiscal revenue, as traditional tariffs alone are insufficient to stabilize the U.S. economy [5]. Group 2: China’s Response - China has shown resistance to U.S. export restrictions, indicating a shift away from reliance on U.S. chips and accelerating its own semiconductor development [11]. - The Chinese government has actively challenged U.S. chip exports, citing security concerns and demanding proof of safety from companies like NVIDIA [7][11]. - Despite U.S. attempts to restrict access, Chinese market potential remains attractive for U.S. companies, leading them to comply with profit-sharing demands [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The back-and-forth nature of U.S. export policies has created a cycle where U.S. companies are willing to pay fines to access the lucrative Chinese market [9]. - The article highlights a paradox where U.S. efforts to limit China's technological advancement may inadvertently push U.S. companies to adapt and negotiate with the Chinese market [11]. - The ongoing trade tensions illustrate a complex interplay between national security concerns and economic interests, with both sides adjusting their strategies in response to each other's actions [11].

Core Viewpoint - Huawei's founder Ren Zhengfei emphasizes the importance of utilizing American technology and talent, advocating for a balanced approach rather than a confrontational stance against the U.S. tech industry [4][6][9]. Group 1: Huawei's Position on U.S. Technology - Ren Zhengfei acknowledges the significant impact of U.S. sanctions on Huawei, leading to a push for "self-reliance" in technology [3][4]. - He argues that the desire for complete domestic substitution of U.S. technology may not be practical, suggesting that leveraging American technology is beneficial for Chinese companies [6][9]. - Ren's perspective reflects a broader sentiment among Chinese citizens who are skeptical of U.S. technology, yet he advocates for a more open and collaborative approach [4][9]. Group 2: Talent Mobility and Globalization - Ren views the migration of top talent to the U.S. as a positive development, as it allows for knowledge and innovation to flow back to China, benefiting the global tech landscape [15][16]. - He highlights that the domestic market in China is large enough to retain talent, reducing the necessity for strict measures to keep talent from leaving [15][16]. - The emphasis is on the importance of continuous learning and growth, regardless of geographical location, which aligns with the global nature of talent mobility [18][20]. Group 3: Strategic Insights for the Future - Ren stresses that true strength comes from openness and learning rather than isolation and resentment towards competitors [18][20]. - He encourages young people to seek opportunities where they can maximize their potential, whether domestically or internationally [18]. - The call for a balanced approach to competition and collaboration suggests a strategic mindset that prioritizes long-term growth over immediate emotional responses [20].

Core Viewpoint - SMIC has experienced significant fluctuations in revenue and profit over the years, reflecting the broader trends in the semiconductor industry and the impact of domestic policies on its operations [1][8][19] Group 1: Company Growth and Development - SMIC, established in 2000, has become the largest foundry in mainland China, initially focusing on logic and memory chips [1] - The company progressed from 0.35-micron technology to 28-nanometer processes, expanding its production capacity across multiple cities in China [3] - By 2022, during the global chip shortage, SMIC's revenue surged to 495.16 billion yuan, with a net profit of 121.33 billion yuan and a gross margin of 38% [4][6] Group 2: Challenges and Declines - In 2023, SMIC faced a downturn with revenue dropping to 452.50 billion yuan, an 8.6% year-on-year decline, and net profit plummeting by 60% to 48.23 billion yuan [8][10] - The company struggled with reduced demand due to inventory adjustments in the smartphone market, leading to a price war and decreased capacity utilization [8][10] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments and Future Outlook - Despite the challenges, SMIC continued to invest heavily in capacity expansion, maintaining high capital expenditures to secure its market position [10][14] - In 2024, revenue rebounded to 577.96 billion yuan, a 27.7% increase, although net profit fell to 36.99 billion yuan, reflecting ongoing pressures from high depreciation costs [12][14] - By 2025, SMIC showed signs of recovery with a 16.2% year-on-year revenue increase in Q2, driven by strong domestic demand and improved capacity utilization [16][18]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant turning point in China's AI chip market amid escalating global tech competition, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations and the potential approval of NVIDIA's H200 chip sales to China [1][3][9] - The current size of China's AI chip market is estimated to be nearly $50 billion, with projections to soar to $200 billion by 2030, indicating substantial growth potential that attracts interest from business leaders [3][7] - The internal discussions within the U.S. government regarding the approval of the H200 chip are complex, with the Commerce Department reviewing existing policies, and potential political backlash due to upcoming midterm elections [3][4] Group 2 - Technically, while the H200 chip is considered a top product in AI, it is not the most advanced compared to NVIDIA's latest Blackwell architecture, reflecting a cautious approach by the U.S. in navigating the export of high-end chips to China [4][6] - The introduction of the H200 chip may serve as a strategic move by the U.S. to weaken China's domestic chip development, potentially leading to increased dependency on U.S. technology [6][9] - Regardless of the U.S. government's decision, China's path towards chip self-sufficiency is irreversible, with significant investments made in chip technology to reduce reliance on external sources [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - Huawei is set to launch the new dual-foldable flagship Mate X7, featuring the new Kirin 9030 chip, marking a significant advancement in the high-end smartphone market and indicating a potential reshaping of market dynamics [1][12]. Group 1: Product and Technology Advancements - The Mate X7 represents not just an iteration of the X series but a technological declaration, showcasing breakthroughs in screen and system experience [1]. - The Kirin 9030 chip signifies Huawei's transition from "technical experimentation" to "mass production practicality," enhancing the user experience in foldable devices [3]. - The self-developed Kirin chip allows for tailored performance and power management, addressing user pain points related to high performance and battery life [6]. Group 2: Ecosystem and User Experience - The integration of the Kirin 9030 chip with HarmonyOS ensures a seamless ecosystem experience, enhancing connectivity and interaction across Huawei devices [6]. - As of September 2025, the number of native HarmonyOS applications is expected to exceed 20,000, with major apps like WeChat and Douyin optimizing for foldable screens [7]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Strategic Positioning - The self-developed chip provides Huawei with supply chain security, allowing for greater control over technology iteration and production [9]. - The launch of the Kirin 9030 chip is anticipated to stimulate advancements in domestic supply chains, benefiting upstream suppliers [9]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Competitive Landscape - The introduction of the Mate X7 is expected to shift the foldable smartphone market from superficial competition based on specifications to a focus on core technological capabilities [11]. - Huawei is redefining the standards for high-end foldable devices, emphasizing chip autonomy, ecosystem synergy, and unique user experiences [11][12]. - The strategic significance of the Mate X7 extends beyond a single device, symbolizing Huawei's return to chip autonomy and a milestone in the evolution of foldable technology [12].

Core Viewpoint - Musk is accelerating the establishment of a complete autonomous chip supply chain in the U.S., aiming to reduce external dependencies and address AI computing demands while mitigating geopolitical risks [2][3]. Group 1: Chip Supply Chain Development - The new PCB center in Texas is now operational, and the FOPLP factory is in the equipment installation phase, expected to achieve small-scale production by Q3 2026 [3][6]. - SpaceX is a key driver of this strategy, aiming to integrate satellite chip packaging processes to lower costs and gain full control over Starlink components [6][10]. - Musk has recruited technical personnel from Intel, TSMC, and Samsung, indicating the high importance placed on the chip business [7]. Group 2: Wafer Factory Goals - A large wafer factory is planned, with an initial monthly production target of 100,000 units, ultimately aiming for a capacity of 1 million units [9]. - Although the factory may not compete with TSMC in advanced process nodes, it will have production capabilities for 14nm and more advanced processes, sufficient to support robotics, autonomous driving, and satellite network needs [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Response to AI Demand - The establishment of an autonomous supply chain aligns with Musk's goal to address the anticipated surge in AI demand, as reliance on external suppliers may lead to delivery bottlenecks during peak demand periods [12]. - Starting in the second half of 2026, Musk's companies will gradually withdraw production orders from partners and shift to internal manufacturing, impacting existing suppliers and accelerating the trend of autonomy in the chip sector [12].

Core Insights - Elon Musk is accelerating his chip self-sufficiency strategy by establishing a complete chip supply chain in the U.S., including PCB, FOPLP, and wafer manufacturing, to reduce reliance on external suppliers [1][4]. Group 1: Production Facilities - The PCB center in Texas is now operational, providing foundational support for future production [2]. - The FOPLP factory is currently in the equipment installation phase, with limited production expected to start in Q3 2026 [2]. Group 2: Strategic Drivers - SpaceX is a key driver of this strategy, aiming to integrate satellite chip packaging processes to lower costs and achieve full control over Starlink components [3]. - Musk has recruited talent from Intel, TSMC, and Samsung, indicating a strong commitment to the chip business [3]. Group 3: Wafer Factory Goals - Musk plans to build a large wafer factory with an initial monthly production target of 100,000 wafers, ultimately aiming for a capacity of 1 million wafers [4]. - The factory will have production capabilities of 14nm and more advanced processes, supporting the needs of robotics, autonomous driving, and satellite networks [4]. Group 4: Supply Chain Autonomy - The strategy to establish a self-sufficient supply chain aligns with Musk's goal to address the anticipated surge in AI demand, as chip requirements are expected to rise significantly [5]. - Starting in the second half of 2026, Musk's companies will gradually withdraw production orders from partners and shift to in-house manufacturing, impacting existing suppliers [5].

Core Insights - The EU is increasingly anxious about China's rare earth export policies, which appear to be targeted specifically at the US rather than globally [1] - The EU aims to secure "special treatment" from China similar to that of the US to alleviate concerns over rare earth supply [1] Group 1: EU's Engagement with China - The EU has established a "special communication channel" with China to ensure a continuous supply of critical rare earth materials for European industries [3] - Over 2,000 applications for rare earth exports from European companies have been submitted to China, with more than half already approved [3] Group 2: Approval Process and Strategy - The EU is satisfied with the partial consensus reached with China regarding rare earth procurement, as over half of the orders from EU companies have been approved [4] - China's approval of over 1,000 rare earth orders from European companies indicates a strategic approach, allowing approvals as long as companies comply with reporting requirements [4][6] Group 3: China's Position and Strategy - China's strategy of maintaining a 50% approval rate for rare earth orders prevents European companies from stockpiling, thereby managing their anxiety over supply [6] - This approach reinforces China's dominant position in the global rare earth supply chain and delays the EU's efforts to achieve supply chain autonomy [6] Group 4: Comparison with US Policies - The situation mirrors the US's approach to technology exports, where the US seeks to maintain its market dominance over China, similar to how China manages its rare earth exports to the EU [10] - The dynamics suggest that China is effectively leveraging its position to influence EU and US relations, compelling them to adopt a more cautious stance [10]