智通财经获悉，天岳先进(02631)午后涨超4%，截至发稿，涨3.19%，报44.6港元，成交额1.08亿港元。 消息面上，8月22日，天岳先进与东芝电子元件及存储装置株式会社就天岳先进开发制造的SiC功率半导 体用衬底达成基本协议，双方将开展以下合作：针对SiC功率半导体特性提升与品质改善的技术协作， 以及运用合作成果扩大高品质稳定衬底供应的商业合作。 据悉，东芝电子元件以铁路用SiC功率半导体的开发、制造及供应实绩为基础，正加速推进服务器电源 用、车载用等SiC器件开发，未来将致力于进一步降低SiC功率半导体损耗，开发面向高效电力转换应 用的高可靠性、高效率产品。为此，除东芝电子元件自主研发外，与SiC衬底技术改良的紧密协作也至 关重要。此次与在SiC衬底开发及量产技术领域具有全球领导地位的天岳先进达成具体合作，有望为各 应用场景提供最优解决方案，加速业务拓展。 本文源自：智通财经网 ...

Key Points - The article discusses various significant events in both international and domestic markets, highlighting stock market reactions and government initiatives [2][5][11]. International Market Summary - Iranian attacks on U.S. military bases did not escalate as severely as expected, leading to a recovery in major U.S. stock indices, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.96%, the Dow Jones by 0.89%, and the Nasdaq by 0.94% [2]. - Energy sector stocks fell by 2.5%, while Tesla's stock surged over 8% following the launch of its Robotaxi service [2]. - Following disappointing clinical trial results for a new weight loss drug, Novo Nordisk's shares dropped by over 5% [2]. Domestic Market Summary - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with eight other departments, issued a plan for the high-quality development of the gold industry, aiming for a 5%-10% increase in gold resources and over 5% in gold and silver production by 2027 [5]. - The Guangzhou government released a three-year action plan to promote the development of smart connected vehicles, targeting over 90% of new cars to be L2 (or higher) by 2027 [6]. - The National Federation of Industry and Commerce's automotive dealers association called for manufacturers to optimize rebate policies and shorten the rebate cash-out period [7]. Industry Trends - The global market for silicon carbide (SiC) is expected to benefit from the bankruptcy of Wolfspeed, the largest SiC substrate manufacturer, which holds over 60% market share [12]. - The Guangzhou government’s plan for smart connected vehicles aligns with Tesla's launch of its RoboTaxi service, which aims to expand to 1,000 vehicles in Texas and over 1 million by the end of 2026 in the U.S. [13]. - The successful operation of a thorium-based molten salt reactor in Gansu represents a significant advancement in fourth-generation nuclear technology, with plans for 5-10 commercial reactors by 2035 [14]. - Recent advancements in stem cell technology could lead to a market growth from 450 billion yuan in 2025 to 3 trillion yuan by 2030, driven by policy changes and aging population needs [15]. Company Developments - Tianyi Ma plans to acquire 100% of the smart self-service equipment company Xingyun Kaiwu, focusing on IoT hardware and SaaS cloud platform solutions [17]. - Huasheng Co. intends to purchase 100% of Yixin Technology, which operates multiple high-performance intelligent computing centers [17]. - The company plans to invest 1 billion yuan in establishing a subsidiary to further develop its computing power service sector [19].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a complex and prolonged downcycle that deviates from traditional cyclical patterns, indicating a structural change rather than a simple cyclical downturn [1][16]. Group 1: Semiconductor Cycle Understanding - The typical semiconductor cycle consists of phases from demand surge to recovery, lasting approximately 16 quarters or 4 years, but the current cycle has shown prolonged and complicated downturns since the pandemic began in 2021 [1]. - Recent reports suggest that Wolfspeed, a leading SiC company, is seeking bankruptcy protection, highlighting the uncertainty in the current market phase [1][17]. Group 2: Performance of Analog Chip Companies - The performance of major analog chip manufacturers in Q1 2025 generally exceeded market expectations, indicating potential positive signals in the industry [5]. - Companies like TI, ADI, and Infineon have shown signs of recovery in industrial and automotive markets, while others like Microchip are still struggling with all major markets at low points [8][9]. Group 3: Market Recovery and Predictions - The Q2 2025 financial guidance shows a 3.6% quarter-over-quarter growth but a 2.9% year-over-year decline, suggesting a potential recovery phase that is still cautious [11][13]. - Nine out of twelve analog chip companies have raised their performance expectations, with TI and ADI anticipating a return to year-over-year growth in Q2 [14]. Group 4: Structural Changes in the Industry - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a shift where investment decisions are increasingly influenced by non-market factors such as policy guidance and geopolitical considerations, rather than solely by market demand and financial returns [16][20]. - The market dynamics have changed, with companies that are well-positioned in industrial and communication sectors showing resilience, while those reliant on consumer electronics face ongoing challenges [22].

Core Viewpoint - Wolfspeed is facing significant challenges despite being a leader in the SiC (Silicon Carbide) sector, with potential bankruptcy looming as the company restructures to improve operational efficiency and financial health [1][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - Wolfspeed has been a pioneer in the SiC field since the 1990s, introducing various sizes of SiC substrates [1]. - The company opened its first 8-inch wafer fab, Mohawk Valley Fab (MHV), in 2022, aiming to be the sole mass producer of SiC devices on this platform by 2025 [1]. - Currently, Wolfspeed's power SiC devices account for approximately 20% of its business, generating around $100 million in revenue in 2020 [3]. Group 2: Market Position and Challenges - By 2024, Wolfspeed's power SiC device revenue is projected to exceed 50% of its total income, growing nearly fourfold to approximately $400 million, positioning it as the fourth largest globally [3]. - The company is struggling to maintain revenue levels in 2024 due to a slowdown in the electric vehicle market, which is impacting the growth of the equipment segment [5]. - The rise of Chinese SiC substrate manufacturers has led to a significant drop in SiC wafer prices, decreasing by 30% in 2024, which has further complicated Wolfspeed's market position [6]. Group 3: Strategic Moves and Future Outlook - Wolfspeed has divested its LED and RF device businesses to focus on power SiC, indicating a potential for further business segmentation [9]. - The transition from a materials company to a device company presents high barriers, and significant capital expenditures will be necessary for future development [9]. - The strategic value of Wolfspeed's assets remains high, particularly in the context of U.S. national security and supply chain independence, as it operates the only fully automated 8-inch high-volume wafer fab owned by a U.S. company [9].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and expected outperformance against the benchmark index [29]. Core Insights - Wolfspeed, a leading global supplier of SiC substrates, is reportedly preparing to file for bankruptcy, which has led to a significant drop in its stock price by over 50% [3][4]. - In contrast, Tianyue Advanced, a domestic SiC substrate company, is projected to achieve approximately $240 million in revenue for 2024, representing a 41% year-on-year growth, and has reported a net profit of 179 million RMB, marking its first annual profit from core operations [8][9]. - The report highlights that domestic companies have gained a significant cost advantage over Wolfspeed, with Tianyue Advanced's gross margin improving from -5.8% to 24% from 2022 to 2025, while Wolfspeed's gross margin has declined from 34.1% to -17.1% during the same period [9][19]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Wolfspeed's Financial Struggles - Wolfspeed's revenue for the first three quarters of fiscal 2025 was $560 million, down approximately 8% year-on-year, with a net loss of about $950 million, marking a 37.7% increase in losses compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The company's total assets were reported at $7.57 billion, with net assets dwindling to approximately $210 million and cumulative losses reaching about $3.87 billion [5][6]. Section 2: Domestic Competitors' Advancements - Domestic companies have made significant strides in SiC substrate production, with Tianyue Advanced achieving mass production of 8-inch substrates and planning to launch 12-inch substrates in 2024 [14][17]. - Other domestic firms, such as ShuoKe Crystal and TianKe HeDa, are also showcasing advancements in 12-inch SiC substrates, indicating that domestic players are catching up with international competitors [14][17]. Section 3: Market Dynamics and Price Competition - The global market for N-type/conductive SiC substrates is projected to reach $1.04 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year decline of about 9%. Wolfspeed holds a market share of approximately 33.7%, while TianKe HeDa and Tianyue Advanced hold shares of 17.4% and 17.1%, respectively [18][19]. - If Wolfspeed files for bankruptcy, it is expected to alleviate current price competition pressures in the SiC substrate market, benefiting domestic manufacturers significantly [18][19]. Section 4: Long-term Demand Outlook - The report expresses optimism regarding the long-term growth of SiC chip demand, primarily driven by the electric vehicle sector, which accounts for about 70% of the demand, and the renewable energy sector, which exceeds 10% [23][25].

Group 1: SiC Substrate Market - The global N-type SiC substrate market is projected to experience a revenue decline of 9% in 2024, amounting to $1.04 billion, due to weakened demand in the automotive and industrial sectors, alongside intensified market competition and significant price drops [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Packaging and Testing Market - The combined revenue of the top ten semiconductor packaging and testing companies is expected to reach $41.56 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3% [4] - ASE Holdings and Amkor maintain their leading positions, while companies like JCET and Tianshui Huatian are experiencing double-digit growth, posing strong challenges to the existing market structure [4][5] Group 3: AI Chip Development - The demand for AI servers is accelerating the self-research of ASIC chips among major North American cloud service providers, with new versions expected to be released every 1-2 years [6] - The proportion of AI chips sourced from foreign suppliers like NVIDIA and AMD in the Chinese market is anticipated to decrease from approximately 63% in 2024 to about 42% in 2025, while local suppliers are expected to increase their share to 40% under government policy support [6]

Economic Information - In April, the housing rental industry entered a low season, with the average residential rent in 50 cities decreasing by 0.32% month-on-month to 35.2 yuan per square meter per month, and a year-on-year decline of 3.40% [2] - The global N-type SiC substrate industry is expected to see a revenue decrease of 9% in 2024, amounting to $1.04 billion, due to weakened automotive and industrial demand, increased market competition, and significant price drops [2] Company Alerts - Spring光科技 has announced that its stock is subject to irrational market speculation risk [3] - 博云新材's shareholder 高创投 plans to reduce its stake by no more than 3% [3] - Other companies such as 龙江交通, 海南海药, and 赛摩智能 also have shareholders planning to reduce their stakes by up to 3% [3][5] Overseas Market Alerts - COMEX gold futures fell by 2.76% to $3,240.1 per ounce, while silver futures decreased by 0.42% to $32.775 per ounce [2] - Citigroup forecasts that gold will consolidate in the range of $3,000 to $3,300 per ounce in the coming months, adjusting its 0-3 month target price to $3,150 per ounce [2] - Russia's oil production is expected to recover to 10.8 million barrels per day due to global demand growth and changes in domestic investment and taxation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The global N-type SiC substrate industry is expected to see a revenue decline of 9% in 2024, reaching $1.04 billion, due to weakened automotive and industrial demand, increased market competition, and significant price drops [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Despite facing dual pressures of weak demand and oversupply in 2025, the long-term growth trend for SiC substrates remains intact, driven by decreasing costs and advancements in semiconductor technology [1] - The market competition is anticipated to accelerate corporate consolidation, reshaping the industry landscape [1] Group 2: Supplier Market Share - Wolfspeed maintains its position as the leading supplier with a market share of 33.7% in 2024, despite operational challenges [2] - Chinese companies TanKeBlue and SICC are rapidly developing, with market shares of 17.3% and 17.1%, respectively, ranking second and third [2] - The top four suppliers collectively hold an 82% market share, with Wolfspeed still leading [3] Group 3: Substrate Size Dynamics - The 6-inch SiC substrate is expected to continue dominating the market due to rapid price declines, while the 8-inch substrate is seen as essential for cost reduction and technology upgrades [4] - TrendForce predicts that the shipment share of 8-inch SiC substrates will exceed 20% by 2030 [4]