刚入行做投研工作时，我的一位师友就教导过我， "投研的起点不是当下市场的主流观点，而是生意本 身。" 起初我觉得这句话非常生涩，因为在当时的我看来，投研的起点难道不应该是哪些行业和个股在风 口上、马上要涨吗？ 历经几轮周期洗礼后，我现在对这句话的理解有所加深。做投研，是要致力于去寻找那些能够买入并且长 期持有的公司，自己在晚上依然可以踏实安睡；与此同时，频繁跟踪和判断市场上的即时"信息"并非必选 项。如果借用段永平的说法"只买未来十年后依然强大的公司"，这个目标的出发点就是研究商业模式（生 意本身），想清楚公司赚的是什么钱、辛苦不辛苦、持续不持续， 商业模式甚至可以说是筛选公司的第 一标准。 很多时候，我们经常会粗浅地认为，因为规模经济性的存在，一家公司会随着其规模增长变得越来越强， 毕竟规模增长会带来单位平均成本的降低。但有的时候，一家公司随着规模增长仅仅是变大了而没有变 强。 过往的投研经历让我们 对增长需要不停开店的生意都保持相对谨慎 。例如一些生意可以线下开到过万家 店，单店模型依然优异，但线性外推需要谨慎，因为前期会有规模效应、品牌势能等，但越过最小规模经 济性后，开店密度、管理半径都可能遇到瓶颈， ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing industry is emphasized as the foundation of national strength and economic development, with a focus on high-quality growth and strategic importance in the context of global changes and digital transformation [1][3]. Group 1: Manufacturing Industry Performance - In the first half of the year, the manufacturing value added grew by 7%, surpassing GDP growth by over 1 percentage point, indicating an increasing share of manufacturing in GDP [2]. - Manufacturing investment increased by 7.5%, significantly higher than the overall fixed asset investment growth of 2.8% [2]. - Exports of goods primarily from the manufacturing sector rose by 7.2%, showcasing manufacturing as a key driver of economic growth amid challenges in other sectors [2][3]. Group 2: Structural Trends in Manufacturing - High-end equipment manufacturing led growth with an increase of over 10%, outpacing overall manufacturing growth [2]. - High-tech manufacturing value added grew by 9.5%, exceeding the overall manufacturing growth rate by 2.5 percentage points, with significant increases in industrial robots and 3D printing equipment [2][3]. - The transformation of manufacturing is characterized by three trends: high-end, intelligent, and green development [3][4]. Group 3: Green Transformation - The production of new energy vehicles increased by over 10%, with rapid export growth in lithium batteries and wind power equipment [4][5]. - China's unique approach to green transformation integrates economic growth with environmental sustainability, avoiding the pitfalls of merely imposing costs [5][6]. Group 4: Challenges and Responses - The manufacturing sector faces challenges from external factors such as tariffs and technological restrictions, particularly affecting exports to the U.S. [6][7]. - Despite a decline in exports to the U.S., overall goods exports grew by 7.2%, driven by strong performance in emerging markets [7]. - The manufacturing sector's resilience is highlighted by its ability to adapt and maintain competitiveness through innovation and government support [7][8]. Group 5: Manufacturing Share and Reasonableness - The manufacturing share of GDP is projected to be around 24.9% in 2024, which is still significantly higher than the global average of approximately 15% [9][10]. - The decline in manufacturing share over the past decade reflects a natural evolution as economies develop, with a shift in demand from manufacturing to services as GDP per capita rises [9][10][11]. Group 6: Future Directions and Strategies - The future direction of manufacturing includes maintaining a reasonable share, enhancing technological capabilities, and focusing on high-value-added products [23][24]. - Key areas for development include traditional industries, emerging sectors like new energy vehicles and biopharmaceuticals, and future industries such as artificial intelligence [24][25]. - The integration of various industries through common-purpose technologies is essential for driving innovation and maintaining competitiveness in the global market [25].

Group 1 - Xiaomi's recent success with the Yu7 model, achieving over 200,000 units sold in just three minutes, solidifies its leadership in the 3C product sector and positions it strategically in the new energy vehicle market [1] - The trend of integrating full-category layouts with deep technological innovation is not unique to Xiaomi but is a common strategy among industry leaders [1][3] - Haier has transformed from a traditional appliance manufacturer to a builder of a "smart home" ecosystem, while Huawei has expanded from communication equipment to consumer electronics and smart vehicles, showcasing a similar multi-category approach [3] Group 2 - Jomoo has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Haier to enhance their smart home business, aiming to create a fully interconnected smart home ecosystem that aligns with national strategies [3] - During the 618 shopping festival, Jomoo achieved significant sales, leading the market in smart toilet sales with a market share far exceeding its closest competitors [4] - Jomoo's comprehensive product strategy includes not only smart toilets and sanitary ceramics but also extends to showerheads, bathroom cabinets, and hardware, meeting consumer demand for one-stop solutions [5] Group 3 - The concept of economies of scope suggests that companies producing multiple related products can achieve lower unit costs, which is reshaping competitive dynamics across industries [6] - Jomoo's strategy aligns with this theory, leveraging its technological advancements across its entire product line to create a multiplier effect in competition [7] - Jomoo's early entry into the smart toilet market and its extensive patent portfolio have positioned it as a leader in the industry, with over 20,000 patents by the end of 2023 [7][10] Group 4 - Jomoo's innovative technologies, such as the "full waterway sterilization" system and ultra-quiet toilet designs, have set new industry standards and enhanced its competitive edge [10][19] - The company has initiated a project with the Gates Foundation to develop a waterless toilet, addressing global sanitation challenges and showcasing its technological prowess [19] - Jomoo's commitment to R&D, investing over 10% of its sales annually, has resulted in significant advancements in cleaning technology and health monitoring capabilities [15][19] Group 5 - The shift towards digitalization and globalization is driving transformation in the bathroom industry, with Jomoo leading the charge through smart manufacturing and global market expansion [21][27] - Jomoo's smart factory utilizes 5G technology and automation to enhance production efficiency and sustainability, setting industry benchmarks [21][26] - The company's AI-driven product innovations, such as the AI BATH solution, are redefining user experiences in the bathroom sector [25] Group 6 - Jomoo's brand value has reached 181.286 billion yuan, reflecting its growing market position and the increasing recognition of Chinese brands on the global stage [28] - The company's multi-category strategy, technological leadership, and commitment to digitalization and globalization are reshaping the competitive landscape of the bathroom industry [28]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of sustainable rural living environment improvement through cost reduction and efficiency enhancement, particularly in the context of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for rural living environment improvement [1] Group 1: Sustainable Improvement Strategies - The focus is on promoting village-led governance in rural living environment projects, which are characterized by low costs, high participation, efficiency, and benefits [1] - The case of Suzhou's Wujiang District illustrates a shift from government-led models to a village self-cleaning model, aligning with the need for cost reduction and efficiency under current financial constraints [1] Group 2: Tailored Self-Cleaning Models - It is essential to develop self-cleaning models that are tailored to local conditions to minimize costs, considering factors like terrain and waste types [2] - Villages should optimize their economic accounts by adopting appropriate cleaning models based on their economic conditions, such as using third-party services or tourism revenue to support self-cleaning efforts [2] Group 3: Institutional Support for Sustainability - Institutional design is crucial for ensuring the sustainability of village self-cleaning operations, with the government providing necessary equipment and technical support [2] - Village committees can establish supervisory groups and reward systems to promote self-cleaning efforts, ensuring regular checks and balances [2] Group 4: Economies of Scale and Scope - Utilizing economies of scale and scope can enhance the efficiency of self-cleaning operations, with county governments coordinating urban-rural cleaning systems [3] - Villages can form self-cleaning cooperatives to manage cleaning tasks collectively, thereby reducing costs and improving efficiency through a more organized approach [3]

Group 1 - The story of the Ambani family illustrates a dramatic entrepreneurial investment saga, marked by internal family disputes following the death of Dhirubhai Ambani in 2002, which significantly impacted the development and stock performance of Reliance Group [2] - Mukesh Ambani successfully transformed Reliance Industries into India's most valuable company, showcasing his business acumen and wealth through the construction of the $2 billion private residence "Antilia" and the rapid growth of Jio in the telecom sector [2] - Jio attracted 100 million users in just 170 days, setting a record for the fastest growth in the telecom industry and fundamentally changing the landscape of Indian telecommunications [2] Group 2 - Mukesh Ambani's success is attributed to the effective combination of diversification strategy and economies of scale, particularly in the traditional petrochemical sector, where large-scale operations reduced production costs and enhanced competitive pricing [3] - The diversification into retail, telecom, and finance mitigated risks associated with reliance on a single industry, akin to investment portfolio theory, allowing for greater resilience against market fluctuations [3] - The launch of Jio involved significant infrastructure investment, which was synergized with existing retail operations to lower marketing costs and improve overall operational efficiency [3] Group 3 - Mukesh Ambani demonstrated keen insight into emerging market opportunities, particularly in the Indian telecom market, where he identified the potential for growth by addressing high prices and poor service quality [4] - Jio's low pricing strategy capitalized on the price elasticity of demand in the telecom sector, attracting a large customer base that had previously been deterred by high costs [4] - The substantial investment in network infrastructure not only improved service quality but also established a competitive advantage, allowing Jio to disrupt the existing market [4] Group 4 - The Ambani family's experience highlights the critical role of capital operations in business development, with significant investments in both petrochemical expansion and Jio's market entry being essential for growth [5] - Mukesh Ambani's early investments in Jio included substantial funding for infrastructure, technology development, and marketing, alongside strategic investments from major players like Facebook (now Meta), which provided both capital and expertise [5] - The narrative emphasizes the importance of balancing debt and equity financing to optimize capital costs and enhance competitive positioning through strategic partnerships [5]

Core Insights - The future success of e-commerce in the next decade hinges on the ability to create a "non-negotiable" choice logic through "rule sincerity + scenario innovation + value scarcity," making "being continuously chosen" a more important growth metric than GMV [2] Group 1: Market Trends - The consumer market is showing resilience, with data indicating significant growth in the collectible toy industry, where several merchants have surpassed 100 million in sales, and many others have seen triple-digit year-on-year growth [2] - The 618 shopping festival has seen platforms like Tmall simplifying promotional rules, which has led to increased consumer enthusiasm and sales across various categories, including beauty and electronics [3][4] Group 2: Strategy Innovation - Tmall's shift from complex discount structures to straightforward price reductions has reduced consumer decision-making costs, leading to a notable increase in sales across categories such as 3C digital products (up 37.1%) and home appliances (up 21%) during the 618 event [4][5] - The introduction of "TaoBao Flash Sale" combines online shopping with instant service, catering to the demand for convenience among younger consumers [7] Group 3: Ecosystem Reconstruction - Brands like Mr. Ji's home goods and DuoDuoMian's seamless underwear are leveraging the open ecosystem of platforms like Tmall to achieve significant growth, demonstrating the power of content-driven marketing and community engagement [13][17] - Tmall's 2025 strategy focuses on supporting quality and original brands through various incentives, aiming to create a multi-faceted growth path for merchants [18] Group 4: Long-term Vision - The evolution of e-commerce competition is shifting from user acquisition to value creation, with Tmall emphasizing the importance of consumer trust and experience differentiation [21][22] - The integration of AI and cloud computing technologies is transforming the supply chain and consumer engagement, indicating a strategic pivot towards sustainable growth models in the e-commerce sector [22][23]