Core Viewpoint - Dow Chemical plans to close its organic silicon plant in the UK, impacting approximately 145,000 tons/year of siloxane capacity, which accounts for about 30.5% of Europe's total siloxane capacity as of 2024. This closure is attributed to high energy costs, stricter environmental regulations, and intensified global competition in the organic silicon industry [2]. Group 1: Dow Chemical's Plant Closures - Dow Chemical announced the closure of its ethylene cracking facility in Germany and its organic silicon plant in the UK, with the UK plant expected to close by mid-2026 [2]. - The closure of the UK organic silicon plant will significantly reduce the supply of organic silicon in Europe, potentially alleviating downward price pressure caused by global overcapacity [2]. Group 2: Policy Impacts on Organic Silicon Demand - Recent favorable policies in the photovoltaic and real estate sectors are expected to boost demand for organic silicon products. The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality [3]. - The push for new urbanization and the recovery of the photovoltaic and construction industries are anticipated to enhance the overall demand for organic silicon, leading to improved industry conditions [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of June 2025, domestic organic silicon DMC capacity is projected to remain at 3.44 million tons/year, with no new capacity expected in 2025. Although 1.85 million tons/year of capacity is planned for 2026-2027, delays are anticipated due to financial pressures on companies [4]. - The apparent consumption of organic silicon DMC in China from January to May 2025 reached 838,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 25%, indicating a steady increase in demand despite supply constraints [4].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - Recent price increase of organic silicon intermediates is attributed to sufficient pre-sale orders and rising metal silicon prices [9][11] - The supply side is expected to see limited new capacity for organic silicon in China, while demand from electronics, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics is anticipated to grow [30] - The closure of overseas production capacity, such as Dow's UK facility, is beneficial for China's organic silicon exports, improving the supply-demand balance [29][30] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - From July 7 to July 11, 2025, the basic chemical industry rose by 1.53%, ranking 19th among all Shenwan first-level industries [12] - The top five stocks by weekly increase in the basic chemical industry included: Shangwei New Materials, Hongbo New Materials, Chenguang New Materials, *ST Yatai, and Dongyue Silicon Materials [12] Sub-industry - Organic Silicon - As of July 11, 2025, the price of organic silicon intermediate DMC was 11,000 RMB/ton, up 1.9% from the previous week [11][14] - The industry is experiencing a decrease in inventory and a strong willingness to maintain prices, although downstream demand has not significantly increased [14] - The recent rise in metal silicon prices is providing cost support for organic silicon prices [14] Investment Recommendations - The organic silicon industry is expected to see an improvement in supply-demand dynamics, with a potential recovery in industry prosperity [30]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has re-entered the 3500-point mark after nine months, with trading volume exceeding 1 trillion yuan for 31 consecutive days, which has encouraged investors [1] - Investors are experiencing confusion due to the rapid rotation among sectors such as pharmaceuticals, technology, new energy, and banking, leading to difficulties in decision-making [1] Group 2 - Northbound capital, often referred to as "smart money," has shown a significant inflow trend from Q4 2024 to Q2 2025, with the construction and decoration sector receiving the most attention [2][4] - The construction and decoration sector is benefiting from a shift in supply-demand dynamics due to government policies aimed at reducing "involution" in the industry, which has been struggling with oversupply [4][5] Group 3 - Recent government policies are expected to boost the real estate sector, which in turn will positively impact the construction and decoration industry [4][5] - Two main strategies for investors to follow Northbound capital include investing in ETFs that track the China Securities Index for infrastructure and construction materials [6] Group 4 - Specific ETFs tracking the China Securities Index for infrastructure have shown stable returns, with the Yinhua China Securities Infrastructure ETF achieving a return of 9.00% [8] - ETFs tracking the China Securities Index for construction materials have outperformed those for infrastructure, with the Guotai China Securities Construction Materials ETF returning 12.92% [9]

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