Group 1: Lithium Market Insights - Lithium supply growth is slowing while energy storage demand is experiencing high growth, indicating an industry turning point with lithium prices entering an upward channel [1] - In H1 2025, lithium faced oversupply pressure leading to price declines, but strong demand from energy storage in H2 2025 has driven prices up [1][2] - The global lithium supply is projected to reach 215.9 million tons in 2026, with growth rates declining from 26% to 13% by 2028, while energy storage demand is expected to outpace supply growth [2] Group 2: Cobalt Market Dynamics - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is implementing a quota system that significantly reduces cobalt supply, with a projected 56% decrease in total quotas from 2024 levels by 2026-2027 [3] - Demand from consumer electronics is expected to exceed expectations, leading to a projected global cobalt shortage of 3.6 and 3.2 million tons in 2026 and 2027, respectively [3] - The domestic inventory is being continuously consumed, leading to a tight supply situation before new raw materials from the DRC arrive [3] Group 3: Nickel Market Overview - Indonesia's regulatory measures aim to control nickel supply and support prices, with a focus on high-grade nickel resources and restrictions on new pyrometallurgical capacity [4] - Nickel supply remains tight due to slow approval processes for mining quotas and external factors affecting mining and transportation capabilities [4] - The nickel market is expected to face potential reductions in mining quotas in 2026, necessitating close monitoring of Indonesia's policy changes [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shengxin Lithium Energy (002240.SZ) forecasts a net loss attributable to shareholders of 600 million to 850 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, influenced by industry supply-demand dynamics and increased foreign exchange losses due to the depreciation of the US dollar [1] Group 1 - The company's performance is primarily affected by the supply-demand landscape in the industry [1] - The depreciation of the US dollar has led to increased foreign exchange losses for the company [1] - In the second half of the year, lithium product market prices have shown a rebound, contributing to improved gross profit compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The company's Indonesian factory has commenced sales and shipments, further enhancing operational performance [1] - Overall, the company's operational performance continues to improve despite the projected net loss [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a net profit loss attributable to shareholders of 600 million to 850 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, compared to a loss of 622 million yuan in the same period last year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's performance is primarily influenced by the supply and demand dynamics within the industry [1] - The depreciation of the US dollar has led to an increase in foreign exchange losses for the company [1] - In the second half of the year, the market price of lithium products has shown a rebound, contributing to an increase in gross profit compared to the same period last year [1] Group 2: Operational Developments - The company's factory in Indonesia has commenced sales and shipments, which has positively impacted operational performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant growth due to policy support, with domestic installed capacity continuing to rise, indicating a robust market outlook for solar energy [1] Group 1: Photovoltaic Industry - The domestic photovoltaic installed capacity increased by 216 GW in 2023, representing a year-on-year growth of 147% [1] - The growth trend is expected to continue, with a projected 49% increase in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] - The photovoltaic 50ETF (159864) tracks the photovoltaic industry index (931151), which includes listed companies involved in the entire solar energy supply chain [1] Group 2: Aluminum Industry - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, with a long-term cap set at 45.5 million tons due to regulatory impacts [1] - The demand for aluminum is expected to grow due to the lightweight requirements of photovoltaic and new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of 5.72% in domestic electrolytic aluminum demand from January to October 2025 [1] - The decline in alumina prices is beneficial for the recovery of electrolytic aluminum profits, while new capacity releases have led to an oversupply of alumina [1] Group 3: Tungsten Industry - China is tightening regulations on tungsten ore mining, with the first batch of mining quotas for 2025 set at 58,000 tons, leading to a persistent supply tightness [1] - There is strong demand in global new energy and advanced technology sectors for tungsten [1]

Core Viewpoint - Since December, manganese silicon futures and spot prices have rebounded from low levels, with the main contract increasing by nearly 200 yuan/ton, although the overall increase in spot prices has not matched that of futures, leading to a weak and stable basis [1] Supply Constraints - Despite widespread losses among manganese silicon enterprises and weakened production willingness, the reduction in output from major production areas has been limited, resulting in no significant alleviation of supply pressure. As of the week ending December 12, the operating rate of 187 independent manganese silicon enterprises was 36.85%, with an average daily output of 27,035 tons, continuing to decline since mid-September, with a cumulative decrease of 10.53 percentage points and 3,555 tons [2] - The overall manganese silicon production remains close to last year's levels, despite a significant year-on-year decline in operating rates by 8.18 percentage points. The daily average output has only decreased by 1,185 tons compared to the same period last year. In Inner Mongolia, the daily average output remains stable at 13,840 tons, down 1,040 tons from previous highs, and slightly down 800 tons year-on-year [2] Inventory Levels - As of the week ending December 12, the total inventory of manganese silicon production enterprises reached 382,000 tons, setting a new historical record. Inventory accumulation is evident across all regions, particularly in major production areas. In Ningxia, the latest inventory reached 285,500 tons, an increase of 195,500 tons from previous lows, continuously hitting record highs [3] - The increase in inventory is primarily due to significantly weakened demand, leading to passive accumulation. Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 22,000 tons, mainly due to weak terminal demand. Other regions also saw inventory increases, but the absolute growth was not substantial [3] Demand Performance - As of the week ending December 12, only 35.93% of the 247 sample steel mills were profitable, a continuous decline since mid-August, down 32.47 percentage points and significantly lower than the same period last year. The profitability of major steel products has not improved, with many long-process steel mills in North China still in a loss state [4] - The overall profitability of steel mills remains poor, and with the seasonal downturn in the steel market, manganese silicon demand is expected to remain weak in the short term. Despite a market sentiment recovery driving manganese silicon prices up from low levels, limited supply reduction and ongoing weak demand indicate that the industry’s supply-demand dynamics have not improved [4]