证券研究报告·公司点评报告·玻璃玻纤 中国巨石（600176） 2025 年三季报点评：Q3 稳价增量效果良好， 盈利逆势保持稳定 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 14,876 | 15,856 | 18,432 | 20,901 | 23,139 | | 同比（%） | (26.33) | 6.59 | 16.25 | 13.39 | 10.71 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3,044 | 2,445 | 3,509 | 4,301 | 4,975 | | 同比（%） | (53.94) | (19.70) | 43.53 | 22.58 | 15.66 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.76 | 0.61 | 0.88 | 1.07 | 1.24 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 20.84 | 25.95 | 18.08 | 14.75 | 12.75 | [Table_ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][6]. Core Views - The company turned profitable in Q1 2025, with a net profit of 1.51 billion yuan, marking a significant recovery from previous losses [1][2]. - The overall gross margin improved significantly due to the reduction in inventory costs, with a year-on-year increase of 2.9 percentage points to 27.2% [2]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities showed a net inflow of -2.07 billion yuan, an improvement of 5.28 billion yuan year-on-year, representing the best level since 2019 [2]. Sales Performance - North America saw a 15% year-on-year increase in sales, driven by strong performance in consumer and professional solutions [3]. - Sales in the Asia-Pacific region decreased by 7%, while China experienced an 8% growth due to recovering global demand [3]. - The Latin America region faced a 23% decline in sales, attributed to intensified competition and unfavorable currency exchange rates [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been revised upwards, with expected net profits of 4.17 billion yuan, 7.09 billion yuan, and 10.28 billion yuan respectively [4]. - The report highlights that the improvement in gross margin and cash flow is expected to continue benefiting from the company's operational enhancements and the recovery of certain product prices [4]. - The estimated P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 35, 20, and 14 respectively, indicating a positive outlook for the company's valuation [5][12].

Core Viewpoint - Rongsheng Petrochemical's performance continues to decline, with a slight increase in total revenue but a significant drop in net profit during the reporting period [1][2] Financial Performance - The company achieved total revenue of approximately 326.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.42% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 724 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 37.44% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.38% [1] - In Q4, the total revenue was approximately 81.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 5.56% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 3.18% [1] - The net profit for Q4 was approximately -15.2 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of about 114% [1] - In Q1 2025, total revenue was approximately 75 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7.54% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 7.76% [1] - The net profit for Q1 2025 was approximately 600 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.53%, marking a return to profitability [1] Dividend and Shareholder Return Plan - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares to all shareholders, with a total distribution and buyback amount exceeding 1.3 billion yuan [1] - For the years 2026-2028, the company allows for cash or stock dividends, with a principle of distributing no less than 30% of the average distributable profit over the last three years [1] Industry Insights - The price differentials for refined oil, ethylene, and polyester filament remained stable year-on-year, while the propylene and PX price differentials saw significant declines of about 18% and 21%, respectively [2] - The supply-side adjustments are expected to improve industry conditions, with a decrease in the operating rate of independent refineries [2] - As of April 24, the operating rate of independent refineries in Shandong was approximately 48%, indicating a gradual improvement in supply-side conditions [2] Future Outlook - The company is in a strong capital expenditure phase, with ongoing construction projects totaling approximately 50.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 6.2 billion yuan from the previous year [2] - The company has several projects in hand, including 1.4 million tons/year ethylene and downstream chemical facilities, which are expected to enhance its market position once operational [2] - The company is positioned to become a leading large-scale chemical platform in China, with strong cyclical resilience anticipated as industry conditions improve [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting the stock price to outperform the industry index by over 15% in the next six months [5]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2024 is expected to be under pressure due to declining prices of its main products, spandex and adipic acid, influenced by market supply-demand imbalances. However, the industry is anticipated to gradually recover as concentration increases and downstream differentiated applications expand [2][4]. - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, including a 150,000-ton spandex expansion project and a 1.1 million-ton integrated natural gas base, which are expected to contribute positively to future revenues [4][10]. Financial Summary - **Revenue and Profit Forecasts**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of 26,931 million yuan in 2024, a 2.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 2,220 million yuan, reflecting a 10.4% decline [1][11]. - **Cash Flow**: The net cash flow from operating activities is expected to rise to 3,025 million yuan in 2024, a 22.53% increase year-on-year, while cash flow from investing activities is projected to decline significantly due to increased structural deposit purchases [3]. - **Key Financial Ratios**: The report highlights a decrease in gross profit margin to 13.83% in 2024, down 1.52 percentage points from the previous year, alongside an increase in financial and sales expenses [2][12]. Industry Insights - The spandex market is facing short-term challenges due to price declines, with the average price of domestic spandex 40D expected to drop by approximately 17.11% in 2024 [4]. - The adipic acid market is characterized by intense competition and price fluctuations, with a projected increase in domestic production capacity by 9.63% in 2024, leading to a supply-demand imbalance [9]. - The report notes that the polyurethane raw material market has significant growth potential, particularly in the footwear sector, where the application ratio is currently below that of developed countries [10].