2026 年 03 月 01 日 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 行 业 研 究 / 建 筑 材 料 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 建筑材料行业周报 节后复工数据农历同比改善，上海地产 政策放松助力地产链回暖 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：王翩翩 证书编号：S1160524060001 证券分析师：郁晾 证书编号：S1160524100004 证券分析师：闫广 证书编号：S1160526010004 联系人：陈怡洁 相对指数表现 -10% 4% 18% 32% 46% 60% 2025/3 2025/8 2026/2 建筑材料 沪深300 相关研究 《关注节后下游复工节奏，期待小阳春》 2026.02.23 《7628 电子布再提价推升业绩弹性，消费 建材小阳春可期》 2026.02.08 《拥抱景气周期，聚焦涨价链条》 2026.02.01 《新一轮城市更新开启，关注消费建材底 部向上的弹性》 2026.01.25 《政策组合拳助力"开门红"， 看好玻纤 景气度向上》 2026.01.18 板块行情回顾：本周建材板块上涨 3.3%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 2.2pct。 分 子 板 块 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry and Company Involved - The notes primarily focus on the **electronic fabric** industry and **real estate** market, with specific mentions of companies such as **China Jushi**, **Keshun Co., Ltd.**, **Sankeshu**, **Rabbit Baby**, **Hankao Group**, **Beixin Building Materials**, **Weixing New Materials**, **Oriental Yuhong**, **Qingniao Fire Protection**, **Qiba Group**, and **Xinyi Glass**. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Price Increase in Electronic Fabric** The price of 7628 electronic fabric has increased again, with international composite materials rising by **0.5-0.6 yuan/meter**. The supply-demand dynamics in the industry continue to improve, leading to a tight supply of traditional electronic yarn and fabric, alongside a strong demand for mid-to-high-end products. This trend supports a continued price increase, and the outlook for the fiberglass sector is positive for **2026** [1][1][1]. 2. **Stable Demand in Fiberglass Sector** The demand in sectors such as wind power and thermoplastics remains stable, and the expected impact of new supply in **2026** is limited. The supply-demand balance is anticipated to improve marginally, with a strong recommendation for **China Jushi** and suggestions to pay attention to **International Composite Materials**, **Changhai Co.**, and **China National Materials Technology** [1][1][1]. 3. **Real Estate Market Recovery** In January **2026**, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in major cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) has collectively rebounded, with a **16% month-on-month increase** and a **33% year-on-year increase** in transaction area. The growth in first-tier cities exceeds **20%** year-on-year, supported by ongoing real estate policy adjustments that help stabilize the market [2][2][2]. 4. **Price Recovery in Construction Materials** The real estate downturn has accelerated the clearing of supply in the construction materials industry, leading to a rebound in prices for certain products. Several leading companies have begun to report profit recovery after strategic adjustments over the past 2-3 years. Recommended companies for stable growth include **Sankeshu** and **Rabbit Baby**, with additional attention to **Hankao Group**, **Beixin Building Materials**, **Weixing New Materials**, **Oriental Yuhong**, **Keshun Co.**, and **Qingniao Fire Protection** [2][2][2]. 5. **Opportunities in Float Glass Industry** The float glass industry is facing challenges, with two new cold repair lines added this week, reducing production capacity to approximately **14.9 million tons/day**. The industry is currently experiencing losses, and the pressure from inventory accumulation during the traditional Chinese New Year may accelerate the exit of production capacity. The glass sector is expected to stabilize, with recommendations to focus on **Qiba Group** and **Xinyi Glass** [2][2][2]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The overall sentiment in the electronic fabric and construction materials sectors indicates a positive outlook for **2026**, with price increases and demand stability being key themes. - The recovery in the real estate market is seen as a potential catalyst for related industries, suggesting a broader economic recovery may be on the horizon. - The mention of specific companies provides actionable insights for investors looking to capitalize on emerging trends in these sectors [1][2][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2]. Core Views - The construction materials sector is expected to benefit from a new round of urban renewal, with significant potential in the consumer building materials segment as it shows resilience against the declining demand in the new housing market [2][9]. - The industry is witnessing a consolidation trend, with leading companies emerging from the profit trough, while smaller firms are being eliminated due to declining profitability [2][9]. - Price increases have been observed in various segments, including waterproofing, coatings, and gypsum board, as companies adjust their strategies post-downturn [2][9]. Summary by Sections Cement - The cement market is entering a traditional off-season, with demand expected to weaken. The average price is around 350 RMB per ton, showing a slight decrease of 2.7 RMB per ton [25][32]. - The average shipment rate for cement companies has increased by approximately 3 percentage points, reaching about 32% [27][32]. - Recommendations include companies like Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, with a focus on potential new projects post-Chinese New Year [32]. Glass - The glass sector is also entering a demand lull, with the average price of float glass at 1,145 RMB per ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 6 RMB [34]. - Inventory levels have decreased, with a reported stock of approximately 4,927 million weight boxes, down by 1% week-on-week [34]. - Companies to watch include Qibin Group and Xinyi Glass, as the industry anticipates a stabilization point after recent downturns [34][46]. Fiberglass - The fiberglass market is expected to maintain stable prices in the short term, with a potential for price increases post-holiday due to stable demand in wind power and thermoplastic sectors [9][12]. - The price of electronic cloth is currently stable, with expectations for continued high demand in mid-to-high-end products [12]. - Key recommendations include China Jushi and International Composites, with a focus on their growth potential [9][12]. Carbon Fiber - Carbon fiber prices are stable, with the commercial aerospace sector expected to drive new demand growth in 2026 [12][15]. - The industry is currently facing profitability pressures, but the development of commercial aerospace may provide new opportunities [12][15]. - Companies to monitor include Zhongfu Shenying and Guangwei Composites, as they may benefit from this emerging demand [12][15].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on **China Jushi Co., Ltd.**, a leading company in the fiberglass industry, particularly in the production of wind power yarn and electronic cloth [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Wind Power Yarn and Electronic Cloth Demand - There is a rapid growth in downstream demand for wind power yarn, with both volume and price increasing. The logic of simultaneous growth in volume and price is expected to continue [1]. - The wind power demand is projected to improve in 2025, alongside a year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle production. This is expected to positively impact the sales volume and price of fiberglass products [1]. - For Q3 2025, the company anticipates a year-on-year revenue increase of **19.53%** and a net profit attributable to shareholders increase of **67.51%** [1]. - The wind power installation target for 2026 is promising, indicating continued growth in the wind power yarn market. The company plans to adjust prices for long-term contracts related to wind power and thermoplastic products in November 2025, which is expected to reflect positively in 2026 [1]. Electronic Cloth Market Dynamics - Following price increases by major players like Japan's Resonac, which announced a **30%** price hike for CCL and adhesive films starting in March, there is an expectation that these increases will be transmitted to the electronic cloth sector [2]. - The company’s **100,000-ton** electronic yarn production line in Huai'an is expected to commence operations in 2026, contributing to ongoing volume and price increases [2]. - The rapid development of AI is expected to drive demand for specialty electronic cloth, and the company is actively advancing the research and certification of low-dielectric electronic cloth products, leveraging its cost, technology, and financial advantages as a leading enterprise [2]. Long-term Development Confidence - The company has released a draft for a **2025 stock incentive plan**, with a grant price set at **10.19 CNY** per share. The plan targets up to **618** core employees, including directors and executives [3]. - The performance assessment targets a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit from 2026 to 2028 of no less than **38.5%**, **27%**, and **22%**, respectively, based on the net profit for 2024 [3]. - The company is actively repurchasing shares, which reflects its confidence in long-term development [4]. Additional Important Information - The ongoing share repurchase and stock incentive plan highlight the company's commitment to enhancing shareholder value and its belief in sustained growth in the fiberglass industry [4].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Fiberglass Industry - The fiberglass industry is benefiting from the growth in demand for wind power and new energy vehicles, with both roving and electronic yarn showing structural demand improvement and simultaneous price increases. Companies have issued price increase notices, and it is expected that performance will reflect this in 2026. Leading company China Jushi has a cost advantage and is likely to benefit from an increase in the proportion of mid-to-high-end products [1][2][3] Construction Materials - Consumer building materials companies are transforming channels and focusing on small B-end and C-end markets, leading to significant improvements in cash flow and profitability. Companies like Sanke Tree are focusing on home decoration wall paint, while Rabbit Baby is steadily developing the small B-end market. Price increases have been announced, and market supply is gradually easing [1][2][3] Cement Industry - The cement industry is expected to see a decline in demand in 2026, but there are positive supply-side factors such as government production limits, market consolidation, and increased investment in western infrastructure. The overseas market demand is strong, particularly for companies like Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement, which are expected to show growth [1][2][3] Coal Market - The thermal coal market is currently experiencing weak price fluctuations due to sufficient port coal stocks and imports. The new safety regulations will raise compliance costs and delay capacity release for some companies, while the demand for coking coal remains supported by pre-holiday stockpiling [1][4][5] Electricity and Power Sector - China's electricity consumption continues to grow, with a significant investment plan of 4 trillion yuan announced by the State Grid to promote the intelligent and digital transformation of the distribution network. Companies like Dongfang Electric are highlighted as key players in the power automation sector [1][6][8] Key Insights and Arguments Demand and Price Trends - The construction materials sector has seen a notable increase in prices, driven by structural demand improvements and channel transformations. The fiberglass sector, particularly in roving and electronic yarn, is expected to perform well in both volume and price [2][3] Market Dynamics - The dye industry is experiencing price increases due to rising costs of key intermediates, benefiting integrated producers like Zhejiang Longsheng and Runtu. Stricter environmental policies are expected to increase industry concentration, favoring leading companies [2][11][12][13][14] Real Estate Market - The real estate market recovery is driven more by supply-side factors, with cities like Dalian, Changchun, and Shenyang showing signs of price increases due to reduced land supply and new project sales [9][10] Additional Important Information - The coal market is entering a traditional weak supply-demand period as production slows down due to holidays, leading to a potential for weaker price fluctuations in the short term [4][5] - The electricity sector is projected to see a significant increase in demand, with a focus on renewable energy development and infrastructure investment [6][8] - The dye market is expected to undergo consolidation as smaller companies face financial pressures due to rising costs, leading to a more concentrated and competitive market landscape [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the construction materials sector, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2] Core Views - A new round of urban renewal is beginning, which is expected to provide significant opportunities in the consumer building materials sector, effectively countering the decline in new housing market demand [8] - The report highlights that after a prolonged downturn in the real estate sector, profitability in various segments of the construction supply chain is starting to recover, particularly for leading companies that have undergone strategic adjustments [8] - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in certain segments, such as waterproofing and coatings, as companies respond to improved market conditions [8] Summary by Sections Cement - The cement market is entering a seasonal downturn, with demand expected to decline. The average shipment rate for major regions has dropped to 29%, a decrease of approximately 10 percentage points [27][34] - The national average price for cement remains stable at around 353 RMB per ton, with minor fluctuations observed in specific regions [28][34] - The report suggests that after the Spring Festival, demand may recover as new key projects are expected to commence, potentially stabilizing prices [34] Glass - The glass market is also experiencing a decline in demand, with production capacity decreasing to approximately 14.95 million tons, the lowest in recent years [53] - The average price for float glass has increased slightly to 1,139 RMB per ton, with inventory levels decreasing [38] - The report indicates that the glass industry is facing profitability challenges, leading to accelerated production line cold repairs, which may help stabilize the market [53] Fiberglass - The fiberglass market is seeing stable pricing for both roving and electronic fabrics, with the price of 7628 electronic fabric currently at approximately 4.4-4.85 RMB per meter [55] - The report anticipates continued high demand for electronic fabrics, supported by structural adjustments and a shortage of high-end products [55] - Key recommendations include focusing on leading companies like China Jushi, with additional attention on International Composite Materials and Zhongcai Technology [55] Carbon Fiber - Carbon fiber prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with the rapid development of commercial aerospace potentially driving new demand [55] - The report notes that the current price stability is a necessary step for increased market penetration, with significant growth expected in the aerospace sector [55] Consumer Building Materials - The report highlights the resilience of consumer building materials, with leading companies like Sanke Tree and Rabbit Baby showing strong growth potential as they emerge from profitability challenges [8] - The urban renewal initiative is expected to create substantial market opportunities, particularly for high-quality consumer building materials [8]

Summary of Conference Call on Fiberglass and Electronic Fabrics Industry Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the fiberglass and electronic fabrics industry, focusing on the trends in raw yarn prices and market dynamics for 2026 [1][2][4][6]. Key Points and Arguments Market Conditions - Wind power orders have seen a temporary reduction, but overall shipment volumes have narrowed. Downstream processing enterprises report slightly better orders than previous years, though the outlook remains uncertain [1][2]. - Leading companies maintain stable inventory levels, while smaller firms have slightly reduced inventory, with stock days averaging between one and two months [1][2]. Price Trends - Before the Spring Festival, some companies may transfer inventory to traders, leading to a slight price decrease of 50-100 yuan/ton. However, social inventory is expected to remain low [1][2]. - After the Spring Festival, raw yarn prices are likely to rise, with a potential increase of 50-200 yuan by the end of Q1 2026, and a minimum expected price of around 3,000 yuan in H1 2026 [1][7]. Production Capacity - In 2026, there will be a significant increase in domestic raw yarn production capacity, with a net addition of over 500,000 tons. Leading companies will continue to expand capacity, while smaller firms will maintain current levels [1][4][17]. - New production lines for both coarse and fine sand are expected to add approximately 790,000 tons of capacity, with a net addition of around 300,000 tons anticipated for 2027 [17]. Electronic Fabrics Market - The electronic sand market is performing well, driven by increased demand for high-end consumer electronics and computing servers. This has led companies to shift towards high-end product production, reducing the output of standard electronic sand and fabrics [1][9]. - Prices for electronic fabrics, such as the 7,628 fabric, have risen from 3 yuan/meter to nearly 5 yuan/meter, with thin and ultra-thin fabrics increasing from over 3 yuan to nearly 7 yuan/meter [1][10]. Inventory Levels - Current inventory levels for standard electronic yarn (7,628) are approximately 20 days, while leading companies have about one month of inventory. High-end products like 2,116 and 1,080 are in short supply, with almost no inventory available [3][13][14]. Competitive Landscape - Competition within the industry is becoming more rational, with leading companies maintaining stable production rhythms. Some smaller firms are producing differentiated products to support current price levels and avoid falling back to historical lows [8]. Future Expectations - The overall supply-demand situation is stable, with no significant fluctuations expected in the short term. Price adjustments are anticipated post-Spring Festival to ensure market stability [6][21]. - The second quarter of 2026 will be a critical observation period for price trends, as any significant changes in supply will likely influence pricing strategies [21]. Conclusion - The fiberglass and electronic fabrics industry is poised for a period of price increases and capacity expansion, driven by stable demand for high-end products and strategic inventory management. The market dynamics suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook for the upcoming year [1][4][6][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the fiberglass sector, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this industry [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights a favorable policy environment that is expected to support the fiberglass sector's growth, particularly in 2026, with anticipated price increases for electronic fabrics due to supply constraints and high demand for mid-to-high-end products [7][11]. - The report emphasizes the importance of leading companies in the construction materials sector, which are expected to show resilience and profitability as the real estate market stabilizes [7][11]. Summary by Sections Cement - The cement market is entering a seasonal slowdown, with prices expected to decline as demand weakens ahead of the Chinese New Year. The average price is around 353 RMB/ton, with a decrease of 4.7 RMB/ton week-on-week [25][27]. - Southern regions are experiencing a temporary uptick in demand due to project completions before the holiday, while northern regions face declining demand due to cold weather [32][34]. Glass - Float glass prices have seen a slight increase, with an average price of 1,138 RMB/ton, while inventory levels have decreased by 4% week-on-week [35]. - The report anticipates a stable price environment for glass in the short term, with supply reductions expected to support price stabilization as the industry faces ongoing profitability challenges [44]. Fiberglass - The report notes that electronic fabric prices have increased, with the G75 electronic yarn priced between 9,300-9,700 RMB/ton, and the 7628 electronic fabric priced at 4.4-4.85 RMB/meter, reflecting a stable demand and supply situation [49]. - The fiberglass sector is expected to benefit from structural adjustments in product offerings, leading to a favorable supply-demand balance and potential price increases in 2026 [11][45]. Carbon Fiber - Carbon fiber prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with the report highlighting the potential for increased demand driven by advancements in commercial aerospace [11][13].

Group 1 - The company announced a restricted stock incentive plan for 2025, proposing to grant a total of up to 34.5282 million shares, accounting for 0.86% of the total share capital, with an initial grant of 31.0754 million shares, representing 0.78% of the total share capital [1] - The performance assessment targets for the incentive plan include a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of non-recurring net profit of no less than 38.5%, 27%, and 22% for the years 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, based on the 2024 non-recurring net profit [1] - The company aims to enhance its long-term growth confidence through this equity incentive plan [1] Group 2 - The supply of raw yarn is expected to grow at a rate of 5.8% in 2026, which is a slowdown compared to 2025, while demand for wind power yarn is anticipated to maintain strong resilience with a growth rate of 4.1% [2] - The price of fiberglass products has been adjusted upwards by 5%-10% following an initiative to oppose "involution" competition, indicating a potential price recovery in the market [2] - The overall supply-demand balance in the fiberglass industry is expected to support price recovery [2] Group 3 - The supply of electronic fabric is tight, with prices ranging from 4.2 to 4.65 yuan per meter, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 6.6% [3] - The production growth rate of electronic yarn is projected to be 6.1% in 2026, while demand is expected to grow at 6.6% due to increased utilization rates in CCL [3] - The industry is experiencing a tight supply-demand situation, which supports the potential for price increases [3] Group 4 - The demand for special electronic fabrics is significantly increasing due to enhanced terminal computing power, with the market space for special electronic fabrics estimated to reach approximately 17.8 billion yuan in 2026, representing a year-on-year growth of 205% [4] - The company is increasing its investment in high-end electronic-grade fiberglass research and production capacity, enhancing its ability to produce thin and ultra-thin fabrics [4] - The company is strengthening its technological barriers through the development and validation of low dielectric and low expansion products [4] Group 5 - The company is steadily advancing capacity expansion and technological transformation projects across its production bases, with significant upgrades planned for its production lines [5] - The company is focusing on three main product lines: wind power, thermoplastic short-cut, and electronic yarn, while also collaborating with downstream customers to develop composite materials for photovoltaic frames [5] - The company's profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 3.51 billion, 4.80 billion, and 5.47 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a positive outlook on profitability [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the market by more than 5% over the next six months [8]. Core Insights - Recently, China Jushi and China National Materials announced stock incentive plans, highlighting the profitability elasticity of traditional electronic fabrics [1]. - The average price of electronic fabrics (7628) is reported at 9,400 CNY/ton and 4.65 CNY/meter, with continuous price increases attributed to high demand from the AI sector, leading to a production shift towards high-end products [5][6]. - The recent rise in copper prices is expected to create upward pricing pressure on downstream CCL and PCB companies, which may be passed down to the electronic fabric prices [5]. - The significant increase in precious metal prices, particularly platinum and rhodium, is anticipated to push up the prices of raw materials for glass fiber production, with current prices reaching approximately 261 CNY/gram for platinum and 1,428 CNY/gram for rhodium [5]. - The stock incentive plans from both China Jushi and China National Materials reflect confidence in future growth, with ambitious profit growth targets set for the coming years [6][7]. Summary by Sections Stock Incentive Plans - China Jushi plans to grant up to 34.5282 million restricted stocks, accounting for 0.86% of its total share capital, with a target net profit compound growth rate of no less than 38.5% from 2024 to 2026 [6]. - China National Materials aims to grant 15.4 million stock options, representing 0.92% of its total share capital, with a target net profit compound growth rate of no less than 107.0% from 2024 to 2026 [6]. Price Trends - The prices of electronic yarn and electronic fabrics have been rising, with G75 electronic yarn quoted at 9,400-9,700 CNY/ton and 7628 electronic fabric at approximately 4.8-4.9 CNY/meter [5][6]. - The demand for glass fiber products, particularly in wind power and thermoplastics, is expected to remain resilient, allowing manufacturers to pass on cost pressures through price increases [7]. Market Confidence - Recent stock purchases by major shareholders of China Jushi indicate strong confidence in the company's future development, with significant amounts pledged for share buybacks [7].