Core Viewpoint - The main contradiction in the US economy for the second half of the year revolves around tariff data, with a short-term focus on the direction of inflation [2]. Tariff Status and Economic Effects - After the May 12 US-China agreement, global trade uncertainty has decreased but remains at historically high levels, with the average US import tariff rate around 16% and China's rate at 27%. The suspension periods for US tariffs on China will end on July 9 and August 12 [2]. - The sectors with the highest US import tariffs as of the end of May include clothing and metals, with slow progress in tariff negotiations with other economies [2]. - The economic effects of tariffs on inflation and growth are expected to manifest over time. A surge in US container bookings indicates a new round of "import grabbing," but this may be hindered by inventory accumulation and weakening domestic demand as tariff suspensions approach [2]. - Tariffs have already begun to exert upward pressure on US inflation, although the effect is not yet significant. A potential inflationary period may occur in Q3 and Q4 [2]. - Indicators such as manufacturing PMI, capital expenditure willingness, and real estate sales suggest weaker private investment, while consumer purchasing intentions have declined despite a temporary boost in household income [2]. - Employment data, including unemployment claims, show signs of deterioration, raising concerns about rising unemployment rates [2]. Dynamic Economic Impact - The impact of tariffs on the economy may shift from "stagflation" to "slowdown," depending on how tariff conflicts evolve. In the next 1-2 quarters, the market may grapple with issues of stagnation versus inflation and whether to expect a slowdown or recession [3]. - By Q4 of this year, if the rate of price increases slows while economic downturns persist, the main contradictions in economic fundamentals, asset classes, and policies may transition from "stagflation" to "slowdown," with the possibility of "recession panic" [3]. Global Trade Predictions - The United Nations has revised its predictions for global trade growth rates, with a forecast of 1.5% growth in trade volume for Q2 2025, driven primarily by industrial production data [4][5]. Sector-Specific Tariff Data - As of May 2025, the highest effective import tariff rates in the US are in the textile and clothing manufacturing sectors, reaching 52.8% and 52.6%, respectively. In contrast, sectors like oil, coal, and chemicals have significantly lower tariff rates [6]. Retail Price Trends - Since March, US retail prices have increased significantly, reflecting retailers' proactive price hikes following tariff impositions. However, prices for goods from Mexico have been declining since April, indicating expectations surrounding tariff negotiations [11][12]. - A survey by the Richmond Fed indicated that 72% of surveyed companies have taken action in response to tariffs, with a majority planning to raise prices [14][15]. Investment Implications - The impact of tariffs on US investment is expected to be more pronounced than on consumer spending, as the proportion of private investment reliant on imports is significantly higher (38%) compared to consumer spending (9%) [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of US tariff policies has led to significant fluctuations in the global market, with a sharp decline in domestic risk appetite. Different asset classes are affected to varying degrees, and short - term caution and observation are recommended for most assets [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the implementation of US tariff policies has far exceeded market expectations, causing global market turmoil. Domestically, the US's additional 34% "reciprocal tariffs" on Chinese goods and China's strong counter - measures may intensify short - term market fluctuations. However, the increase in holdings of ETFs and related stocks by Huijin, China Guoxin, and China Chengtong provides some support for domestic market risk appetite [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to have a short - term correction, and short - term cautious observation is recommended. Treasury bonds may have a short - term shock rebound, and cautious long - positions are advised. In the commodity sector, the black metal sector is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, non - ferrous metals may have a short - term correction, the energy and chemical sector may decline in the short term, and precious metals may have a short - term high - level correction, all requiring cautious observation [2]. Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as airport shipping, liquor, and banking, the domestic stock market continued to decline. The US tariff policies may intensify short - term market fluctuations, but the increase in holdings by relevant institutions provides some support. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - On Monday, the precious metals market opened significantly lower. The decline in gold prices is mainly due to the liquidity crisis triggered by the plunge in large - scale assets and the strengthening of the US dollar index. The current market's pricing of "recession panic" and "liquidity crisis" may push the price of New York gold back to the $3000 mark, and if it breaks through, it may test the $2800 support. In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the US dollar credit crisis still provide upward momentum for gold [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - On Monday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets tumbled, but the decline in the black metal sector was relatively small compared to other varieties. The current steel demand is in the peak season and continues to recover. Supply is expected to further increase, with the hot metal output expected to rise to 240 - 245 tons. After the sharp decline on Monday, it is recommended to observe the steel market and pay attention to subsequent hedging policies [5]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the futures and spot prices of iron ore corrected significantly, mainly affected by the reciprocal tariff policies during the Tomb - sweeping Festival. The hot metal output continues to rise, and the fundamentals are still relatively healthy in the short term. It is recommended to observe and wait for the end of risk release [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Monday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese corrected significantly. The demand for ferroalloys has increased, but the supply of silicon manganese has decreased, and the supply of silicon iron remains low. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [6][7]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - US tariff policies threaten global energy demand, and OPEC+ production increases lead to a rapid rise in the risk of supply surplus. The current tariff situation has exceeded expectations, and the market is pricing in the risk of a US and global economic recession [8]. Asphalt - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a significant weakening of asphalt prices. The fundamentals have slightly improved, but the actual demand is still weak, and the subsequent inventory reduction drive is limited. The short - term price will continue to follow crude oil, and price fluctuations will remain high [8]. PX - PX prices have significantly retreated following crude oil. With low PTA开工 and many domestic PX device overhauls, prices are under pressure. It is necessary to pay attention to the rebound of crude oil prices and the increase in overseas oil - blending demand. PX prices will remain low this week [9]. PTA - There are still many short - term PTA overhauls, which are not enough to offset the cost collapse. After April, PX demand will gradually recover, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. However, before the crude oil cost risk is fully realized, the PX price rebound will be limited. The downstream PTA and ethylene glycol prices will also decline [9][10]. Ethylene Glycol - The shipment of ethylene glycol is still average, and the inventory reduction is limited. The price is supported by short - term supply reduction, but the coal - based production may resume if the price rebounds. The price is likely to touch the previous low, and the rebound will be limited by weak downstream demand [10]. Short - fiber - The price of short - fiber has significantly corrected following crude oil. Although some short - fiber enterprises have announced industry self - discipline and the shipment has accelerated, the energy and chemical sector is still in a downward trend, and short - fiber is expected to remain weak [10]. Methanol - The price of methanol in Taicang has declined. Upstream overhauls have led to a slight decrease in production, and imports are expected to increase in mid - April. The downstream MTO/MTP开工 is acceptable, and there are overhaul plans in the second quarter. The short - term inventory decline supports the near - month contract, while the far - month contract is weak [11]. PP - The domestic PP market has partially declined. Upstream new device production and the approaching overhaul season, combined with weak downstream demand, limit price fluctuations. Crude oil price decline squeezes profits, and low inventory provides some support. The decline in propane imports in counter - sanctions may lead to a contraction in PP supply [12]. LLDPE - The PE market price has partially declined. The overall supply is relatively loose, downstream demand growth has slowed down, and inventory accumulation is expected. With the sharp decline in crude oil, prices are expected to be under pressure [13]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The implementation of reciprocal tariffs will put great pressure on the global economy, and copper prices are just at the beginning of a decline. After a sharp short - term decline, there may be a rebound, but the mid - term strategy is to sell on rallies [14]. Aluminum - During the holiday, copper prices fell sharply, while aluminum was relatively stable. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has slightly increased. The fundamentals of aluminum are average, and the current market is mainly macro - priced. Existing short positions can be fully closed [15]. Tin - The tin price has risen due to supply disruptions but has fallen due to macro - risks during the holiday. The supply recovery is uncertain, and the demand is restricted by the US tariff policies. The social inventory of tin has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of Myanmar's resumption of production and the Congo - Kinshasa negotiations [15]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The overnight CBOT soybean price closed higher, but the market's concern about US soybean exports has increased the risk of price decline. The export inspection volume of US soybeans last week was 804,270 tons. In South America, the soybean and corn harvest progress in Brazil's central - southern region is faster than last year [16]. Soybean Meal - After the Tomb - sweeping Festival, the price of soybean meal rose significantly. In the short term, the supply of domestic soybeans is stable and abundant, and the soybean meal inventory is expected to first decline and then rise in the second quarter. The futures price is affected by the expected increase in import costs and concerns about the US soybean supply chain. It is necessary to pay attention to the export price of Brazilian soybeans and the US new - season sowing situation [17]. Oils - US tariff statements and the decline in US soybean oil prices have put pressure on palm oil prices. The price of domestic soybean oil is supported by expected cost increases, and the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil has widened. The risk premium of rapeseed oil has declined. The supply chain of domestic oilseeds is generally stable, but the increase in import costs may provide some support. In April, the palm oil production in Southeast Asia will increase, and the price is expected to be weak [18]. Corn - The domestic corn market has responded relatively calmly. China's dependence on US corn has decreased in recent years, and the domestic corn production has been abundant. With the reduction in imported grain supply and limited available residue in domestic corn - producing areas, the corn price is likely to rise [18][19]. Live Pigs - The price of large pigs has continued to decline, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is partially inverted. The supply is expected to be sufficient in the future, while the demand increase is limited. The short - term feed cost may rise, and the market is more likely to support prices, but the re - stocking of second - fattening pigs may be cautious [19].