Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a slight increase in soybean meal prices in Northeast China, with specific prices reported for various locations [1] - As of July 9, the national soybean meal price in Beijing is 2870 yuan/ton, while in Tianjin it is 2860 yuan/ton, reflecting market trends [1] - The soybean meal futures market closed at 2947.00 yuan/ton on July 9, with a daily trading volume of 895,519 contracts [1] Group 2 - On July 8, major oil mills in China sold 14.58 million tons of soybean meal, an increase of 6.13 million tons from the previous trading day, with 12.58 million tons sold in the spot market [2] - According to the EU Commission, soybean meal imports for the 2024/25 year reached 19.39 million tons, up from 15.28 million tons the previous year [1] - The USDA weekly crop progress report indicates that as of June 29, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. soybeans is 66%, below market expectations [3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-07-08 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2500，基差-79，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存0.46万吨，上周1.1万吨，周环比减少58.18%，去年同期3万吨，同比减少 84.67%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓：主力多单减少，资金流入，偏多 6 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 2025/7/1 | 指标 | | 6月30日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | -11 | 15 | 2500 2000 | ===== 19/20 ===== 20/21 ===== 21/22 ===== 22/23 | | -- 23/24 | 24/25 | | | 天津 | -41 | 25 | 1500 1000 | | | | | | | 日照 | -81 | 25 | | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -121 | 5 | -500 | | | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 11/72 | 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 08/27 | | | | | 东莞 | -111 | 35 | | | M9-M1 | | | | | 湛江 | -111 | -15 | ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-06-16 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2509：2630至2690区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期进入旺季，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面短期震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕， 但未对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。中性 2.基差：现货2580，基差-94，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存1.9万吨，上周2万吨，周环比减少5%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比减少 32.14%。偏多 4.盘面： ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2560 - 2620. It is influenced by factors such as the low - level operation of rapeseed meal oil mills, low inventory, short - term recovery of spot demand, increased import of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The price is likely to return to range - bound trading in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight spot market supply and rising demand [11]. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Increased arrival of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From May 16th to May 27th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 628 to 463. The spot price of rapeseed meal increased from 2470 to 2540, and the futures price of the main 2509 contract increased from 2513 to 2599. The spot price of rapeseed meal remained at a discount to the futures price, and the high - level spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot prices narrowed. The spread of the 2509 contract oscillated [13][14][20]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 2.35 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.67%. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 31,278 on May 15th to 28,438 on May 27th [9][15]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The supply and demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, output, consumption, inventory, etc. [23][24]. - **Import and Cost**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost oscillated strongly [25]. - **Aquaculture**: Aquatic fish prices increased slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [37]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal oscillated and rebounded, supported by the soybean meal trend and technical buying. The low - level operation of oil mills and low inventory supported the market. Spot demand recovered in the short term, and although the arrival of imported rapeseed increased, the short - term inventory of oil mills was under no pressure. The market returned to range - bound trading in the short term. China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes were bullish, but the impact was limited as there were no additional tariffs on rapeseed imports [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 2540, and the basis was - 59, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory decreased, which was bullish [9]. - **Market**: The price was above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, showing a neutral trend [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main long positions increased, and funds flowed in, which was bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: In the short term, rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. Driven by soybean meal, the price returned to range - bound trading [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-04-28 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕，但未 对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。偏多 2.基差：现货2600，基差-84，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存0.99万吨，上周2.07万吨，周环比减少52.17%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比 减少64.64%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓： ...