Soybeans are trading with weaker action on Thursday, as contracts are down 1 to 2 cents. Futures saw late session buying, with contracts closing 10 to 12 cents higher. Wednesday’s preliminary open interest rose 8,252 contracts. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price was 10 cents higher at $9.35. Soymeal futures were down $1 in the nearby October contracts, as other contracts were steady to 80 cents higher. Soy Oil futures were 73 to 93 points higher. Futures shrugged off early session pressure as ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil market, due to Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. For the double - meal market, short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and those not yet entered the market should wait and see for buying points after stabilization [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Vegetable Oil Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybean series, global vegetable oil futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased in price and positions, with the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closing at 8086 yuan/ton, down 3.35% day - on - day [1]. Important Information - International oil prices rose on September 23 due to the impasse in the agreement to restart Iraqi Kurdish oil exports. - The US EPA plans to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted by the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) program to large refineries, with two main options of 50% and 100% quota distribution. The public comment period lasts until the end of October, and a decision may be made in late November or December 25. - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a 33.60% increase from the previous month and a 15.17% decrease from the same period last year. - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - Canada launched a $370 million biofuel production incentive program to boost domestic rapeseed consumption. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 6.57% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.25%. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase from August 1 - 20. Exports to China were 30,400 tons, lower than the previous month. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.6773 million tons, a 1.68% week - on - week decrease and a 22.80% year - on - year increase [1][2]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's cancellation of soybean oil and meal export tariffs and the continuous reduction of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC soybean oil led to the decline of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient, oil mill operating rates are around 65%, and soybean oil supply is abundant. Rapeseed oil is still in the process of inventory reduction, and palm oil is in the process of inventory accumulation [2]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: No relevant arbitrage strategy is provided [2]. Double - Meal Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, double - meal futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all decreased in price and increased in positions, with the main soybean meal contract M2601 closing at 3250 yuan/ton, down 3.49% day - on - day [2]. Important Information - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - As of the week ending September 18, 2025, US soybean export inspections were 484,116 tons, at the lower end of market expectations, a 41% decrease from the previous week and a 3% decrease from the same period last year. - As of September 21, the US soybean harvest was 9% complete, with a good - to - excellent rate of 61%. - Brazil's soybean exports in September 2025 are estimated to be 7.43 million tons, a 44% increase from the same period last year. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory was 770,800 tons, an increase from the previous week, and the imported rapeseed inventory was 66,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 124,600 tons, an increase from the previous week [2][3]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's zero - tariff policy on soybean series affected the global soybean market, but the continuous decline of US soybeans is limited. Domestically, oil mill spot prices have decreased, and near - month basis has increased. The terminal's willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has improved. Rapeseed meal spot transactions are limited, and institutional long - short games have intensified [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and wait for buying points after stabilization. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - short spread trade for soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts. Temporarily exit on September 23 and wait for subsequent stabilization [3].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic soybean meal prices are experiencing a downward trend, with a recent drop of 20 yuan/ton, while trading activity remains relatively high [1] Price Summary - As of September 16, 2025, soybean meal prices in Tianjin are reported at 3030 yuan/ton for 43% protein content, consistent across multiple traders [2] - The futures market shows the main soybean meal contract closing at 3041.00 yuan/ton, with a slight decline of 0.33% [2] Shipping and Inventory Data - In the second week of September 2025, a total of 113.69 million tons of soybean meal were shipped, a decrease from 180.93 million tons in the same period last year, but with an average daily shipment increase of 31.95% [3] - As of September 12, major oil mills in the country hold 1.15 million tons of soybean meal in inventory, with expectations to reach around 1.20 million tons by the end of September [4] Market Analysis - According to a report from Jianxin Futures, China has not yet begun purchasing U.S. soybeans as the harvest season approaches, maintaining a 23% import tariff. The country is expected to rely on Brazilian soybeans as a primary substitute, with potential imports from Argentina, although a small import gap may still exist [5] - The market sentiment is cautious, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach due to unfavorable USDA reports and potential trade changes, leading to a short-term outlook of low-level fluctuations [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a slight increase in soybean meal prices in Northeast China, with specific prices reported for various locations [1] - As of July 9, the national soybean meal price in Beijing is 2870 yuan/ton, while in Tianjin it is 2860 yuan/ton, reflecting market trends [1] - The soybean meal futures market closed at 2947.00 yuan/ton on July 9, with a daily trading volume of 895,519 contracts [1] Group 2 - On July 8, major oil mills in China sold 14.58 million tons of soybean meal, an increase of 6.13 million tons from the previous trading day, with 12.58 million tons sold in the spot market [2] - According to the EU Commission, soybean meal imports for the 2024/25 year reached 19.39 million tons, up from 15.28 million tons the previous year [1] - The USDA weekly crop progress report indicates that as of June 29, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. soybeans is 66%, below market expectations [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by factors such as the low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, but the lack of tariff on Canadian rapeseed imports limits the upside potential. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain range - bound due to the influence of imported rapeseed inventory and soybean meal prices [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No information provided. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, with expectations of improved supply in the spot market and good demand. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and an anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russia's production. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June, and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [25][26]. - **Price and Transaction Data**: It shows the average transaction price and volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from June 26 to July 7, as well as the price difference between them. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from June 27 to July 7 are also presented, along with the change in rapeseed meal warehouse receipts during the same period [14][16][17]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: The import volume of rapeseed in July is lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills has rebounded from a low level, while the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills has slightly decreased [27][29][31]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: The production and price data of Chinese aquatic products, including fish, shellfish, and shrimp - crabs, are mentioned. The price of aquatic fish has slightly fluctuated, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [33][35][39]. 5. Position Data No information provided. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal has oscillated and declined, affected by soybean meal prices and technical adjustments. Low rapeseed meal inventory in oil mills and the peak season of short - term demand support the market, but the lack of tariff on Canadian rapeseed imports limits the upside potential [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2500, with a basis of - 79, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67%, which is bullish [9]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending downward, which is bearish [9]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions have decreased, but capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal is expected to remain range - bound in the short - term, affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, as well as the influence of soybean meal prices [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - With the gradual establishment of downstream inventories of domestic soybean meal, the subsequent inventory accumulation speed of domestic soybean meal may accelerate under the expectation of high - opening and high - crushing of oil mills, and it is expected that the 009 contract will show a sideways movement. In the fourth quarter, there is an expectation of rising import costs for soybean meal, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices for the November and January contracts. Also, pay attention to the results of the USDA planting area report at the end of June [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) in Dalian was - 11 with a change of 15; in Tianjin, it was - 41 with a change of 25; in Rizhao, it was - 81 with a change of 25. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was - 121 with a change of 5; in Dongguan, it was - 111 with a change of 35; in Zhanjiang, it was - 111 with a change of - 15; in Fangcheng, it was - 111 with a change of 5. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was - 2 with a change of 27 [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 389 with a change of 2; the spread of the main contract was 280 with a change of 10 [7] 3.3 International Data - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1656, and the on - disk crushing profit was 232 yuan/ton with a change of 2 [7] 3.4 Inventory Data - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level in the same period of history; soybean meal inventory is still at a low level in the same period of history, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises continued to rise [7][8] 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in China in June, July, and August is expected to be over 10 million tons each month. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans has dropped to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth. Demand: From the perspective of inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November; the inventory of poultry remains at a high level; the cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the proportion of feed addition has increased. The提货 volume is at a high level; in some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein [7] 3.6开机 and Pressing Situation - The开机 rate and soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are shown in historical data analysis charts [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate between 2630 and 2690. It was affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, then pulled back after rising. With the influence of soybean meal, the price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short - term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate between 2630 and 2690. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is bullish, the disk is bullish, the main position is bullish [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, and the supply in the spot market is tight while demand is rising. - The annual rapeseed output in Canada has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the decrease in EU rapeseed output and lower - than - expected Canadian rapeseed output. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed output and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports bulk commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed has increased after March; the result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and the demand for rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off - season. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From June 4th to June 13th, the average trading price and trading volume data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided, as well as the average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal [13]. - **Price Data**: From June 5th to June 13th, the futures prices of rapeseed meal (main contract 2509 and far - month contract 2601) and the spot price in Fujian are provided [15]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: From June 3rd to June 13th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts and their changes compared with the previous day are provided [16]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023 are provided, including harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. [24][25]. - **Other Data**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in June was lower than expected, and the import cost was strongly oscillating. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills stopped falling and rebounded, the rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills increased slightly [26][29][31]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate between 2630 and 2690. Analyze from aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, disk, main position, and expectation [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2560 - 2620. It is influenced by factors such as the low - level operation of rapeseed meal oil mills, low inventory, short - term recovery of spot demand, increased import of Canadian rapeseed, and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes. The price is likely to return to range - bound trading in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the content 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, with tight spot market supply and rising demand [11]. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, which supports the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing [11]. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's rapeseed production offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Increased arrival of imported rapeseed after March; uncertainty in the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - season of rapeseed meal demand [12]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Price and Spread**: From May 16th to May 27th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 628 to 463. The spot price of rapeseed meal increased from 2470 to 2540, and the futures price of the main 2509 contract increased from 2513 to 2599. The spot price of rapeseed meal remained at a discount to the futures price, and the high - level spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal spot prices narrowed. The spread of the 2509 contract oscillated [13][14][20]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory was 2.35 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.97% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.67%. The rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 31,278 on May 15th to 28,438 on May 27th [9][15]. - **Supply and Demand Balance**: The supply and demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 - 2023 are provided, showing changes in harvest area, output, consumption, inventory, etc. [23][24]. - **Import and Cost**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in May was lower than expected, and the import cost oscillated strongly [25]. - **Aquaculture**: Aquatic fish prices increased slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [37]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal oscillated and rebounded, supported by the soybean meal trend and technical buying. The low - level operation of oil mills and low inventory supported the market. Spot demand recovered in the short term, and although the arrival of imported rapeseed increased, the short - term inventory of oil mills was under no pressure. The market returned to range - bound trading in the short term. China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes were bullish, but the impact was limited as there were no additional tariffs on rapeseed imports [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 2540, and the basis was - 59, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory decreased, which was bullish [9]. - **Market**: The price was above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward, showing a neutral trend [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main long positions increased, and funds flowed in, which was bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: In the short term, rapeseed meal prices rose and then fell due to the low inventory of imported rapeseed and China's additional tariffs on Canadian oil residue cakes. Driven by soybean meal, the price returned to range - bound trading [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-04-28 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，菜粕油厂开机处于低位，菜粕 库存维持低位支撑盘面。菜粕现货需求短期逐步回升，进口油菜籽到港量增多但油厂库 存短期无压力，盘面震荡偏强。中国对加拿大油渣饼进口加征关税短期利多菜粕，但未 对油菜籽进口加征关税，利多程度也或有限。偏多 2.基差：现货2600，基差-84，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：菜粕库存0.99万吨，上周2.07万吨，周环比减少52.17%，去年同期2.8万吨，同比 减少64.64%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓： ...