12月25日：全国主要油厂豆粕成交总量14.23万吨，较前一交易日减少4.22万吨，其中现货成交4.18万吨。 12月25日，华东市场43%豆粕现货价格稳中偏强，其中泰州汇福3020平，泰兴邦基3030平，舟山中海3070涨10，宁波金光3090涨10，芜湖益海 3060平。(单位：元/吨) 光大期货：市场谨慎看待中国采购步伐。之前美国农业部周二发布的出口销售报告显示，截至12月11日，美豆单周净销售239.62万吨，其中对中 国净销售138.3万吨。国内方面，两粕震荡走高。豆粕现货成交环比减少，但依然高于上周同期。成交集中在远期合约，体现为备货需求释放为 主。总的来说，豆粕上下空间均有限，区间震荡思路不变。策略上，双卖策略。 截至2025年12月26日当周，豆粕期货主力合约收于2790元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周减持29425手。 本周(12月22日-12月26日)市场上看，豆粕期货周内开盘报2735元/吨，最高触及2801元/吨，最低下探至2719元/吨，周度涨跌幅达1.97%。 消息面回顾： 巴西外贸秘书处(SECEX)公布的数据显示，12月迄今巴西豆粕出口领先去年同期。12月1至19日的豆粕出口 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 24 日星期周三 | 力位 | 2448，支撑位 | 2274。 | | --- | --- | --- | | 套利方面：暂无 | | | 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 | | | 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 12 月 23 日，前期空头大量离场，带动植物油板块整体反弹。 豆油主力 ...

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: December 1, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - The US soybean futures contract on the external market was closed today, with the main contract at 1130 cents. The USDA's November monthly supply and demand report showed that the yield per unit was lowered from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, and the export item was reduced from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels. The ending inventory was slightly lowered to 290 million bushels, which was bearish. The US NOPA's October crushing data exceeded expectations and reached a record high for a single month [6]. - The domestic soybean meal fluctuated at a high level this week following the CBOT soybeans. After the China - US reached a phased agreement, the domestic soybean meal returned to the cost - pricing model of CBOT soybeans. There is support at the bottom due to cost increase and low crushing profit, but there is also inventory pressure [6]. Operational Suggestions - The recent volatility may decrease, and it should be treated as a high - level oscillation. For options, pay attention to the straddle short - selling strategy [6]. Contract Data | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 2601 | 3039 | 3055 | 3060 | 3041 | 3044 | 5 | 0.16% | 622626 | 1297132 | - 48625 | | Soybean Meal 2603 | 3015 | 3054 | 3054 | 3026 | 3036 | 21 | 0.70% | 95620 | 543481 | 13990 | | Soybean Meal 2605 | 2836 | 2828 | 2855 | 2828 | 2845 | 9 | 0.32% | 398648 | 1462928 | 46714 | [6] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week of November 16, 2025, the US soybean harvest rate was 95%, compared with 98% in the same period last year and a five - year average of 96% [9]. - On November 18, private exporters reported selling 792,000 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 market year [9]. - The Brazilian Soybean Industry Association (Abiove) predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would be a record 177.7 million tons, with a predicted crushing volume of 60.5 million tons and an export volume of 111 million tons in 2026 [10].

Core Insights - Soybean futures experienced a mixed trading session, with contracts closing 10 to 12 cents higher despite initial weaker action [1][2] - A significant increase in preliminary open interest was noted, rising by 8,252 contracts [1] - The national average cash price for soybeans increased by 10 cents to $9.35 [1] Market Performance - Soymeal futures declined by $1 in nearby October contracts, while other contracts remained steady to 80 cents higher [1] - Soy Oil futures showed an increase of 73 to 93 points [1] - November 25 Soybeans closed at $10.13, up 11.25 cents, while January 26 and March 26 contracts also saw increases [4] External Factors - President Trump's announcement regarding a discussion on soybeans with President Xi of China contributed to late-session buying [2] - EIA data indicated that soybean oil usage in biodiesel reached 1.108 billion pounds in July, marking the highest level in 8 months but slightly below last year [3] - StoneX's estimate for the US soybean crop was 53.9 bushels per acre, a 0.7 bushel increase from the previous month, with total production estimated at 4.326 billion bushels [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil market, due to Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. For the double - meal market, short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and those not yet entered the market should wait and see for buying points after stabilization [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Vegetable Oil Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybean series, global vegetable oil futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased in price and positions, with the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closing at 8086 yuan/ton, down 3.35% day - on - day [1]. Important Information - International oil prices rose on September 23 due to the impasse in the agreement to restart Iraqi Kurdish oil exports. - The US EPA plans to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted by the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) program to large refineries, with two main options of 50% and 100% quota distribution. The public comment period lasts until the end of October, and a decision may be made in late November or December 25. - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a 33.60% increase from the previous month and a 15.17% decrease from the same period last year. - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - Canada launched a $370 million biofuel production incentive program to boost domestic rapeseed consumption. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 6.57% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.25%. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase from August 1 - 20. Exports to China were 30,400 tons, lower than the previous month. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.6773 million tons, a 1.68% week - on - week decrease and a 22.80% year - on - year increase [1][2]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's cancellation of soybean oil and meal export tariffs and the continuous reduction of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC soybean oil led to the decline of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient, oil mill operating rates are around 65%, and soybean oil supply is abundant. Rapeseed oil is still in the process of inventory reduction, and palm oil is in the process of inventory accumulation [2]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: No relevant arbitrage strategy is provided [2]. Double - Meal Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, double - meal futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all decreased in price and increased in positions, with the main soybean meal contract M2601 closing at 3250 yuan/ton, down 3.49% day - on - day [2]. Important Information - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - As of the week ending September 18, 2025, US soybean export inspections were 484,116 tons, at the lower end of market expectations, a 41% decrease from the previous week and a 3% decrease from the same period last year. - As of September 21, the US soybean harvest was 9% complete, with a good - to - excellent rate of 61%. - Brazil's soybean exports in September 2025 are estimated to be 7.43 million tons, a 44% increase from the same period last year. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory was 770,800 tons, an increase from the previous week, and the imported rapeseed inventory was 66,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 124,600 tons, an increase from the previous week [2][3]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's zero - tariff policy on soybean series affected the global soybean market, but the continuous decline of US soybeans is limited. Domestically, oil mill spot prices have decreased, and near - month basis has increased. The terminal's willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has improved. Rapeseed meal spot transactions are limited, and institutional long - short games have intensified [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and wait for buying points after stabilization. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - short spread trade for soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts. Temporarily exit on September 23 and wait for subsequent stabilization [3].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic soybean meal prices are experiencing a downward trend, with a recent drop of 20 yuan/ton, while trading activity remains relatively high [1] Price Summary - As of September 16, 2025, soybean meal prices in Tianjin are reported at 3030 yuan/ton for 43% protein content, consistent across multiple traders [2] - The futures market shows the main soybean meal contract closing at 3041.00 yuan/ton, with a slight decline of 0.33% [2] Shipping and Inventory Data - In the second week of September 2025, a total of 113.69 million tons of soybean meal were shipped, a decrease from 180.93 million tons in the same period last year, but with an average daily shipment increase of 31.95% [3] - As of September 12, major oil mills in the country hold 1.15 million tons of soybean meal in inventory, with expectations to reach around 1.20 million tons by the end of September [4] Market Analysis - According to a report from Jianxin Futures, China has not yet begun purchasing U.S. soybeans as the harvest season approaches, maintaining a 23% import tariff. The country is expected to rely on Brazilian soybeans as a primary substitute, with potential imports from Argentina, although a small import gap may still exist [5] - The market sentiment is cautious, with traders adopting a wait-and-see approach due to unfavorable USDA reports and potential trade changes, leading to a short-term outlook of low-level fluctuations [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a slight increase in soybean meal prices in Northeast China, with specific prices reported for various locations [1] - As of July 9, the national soybean meal price in Beijing is 2870 yuan/ton, while in Tianjin it is 2860 yuan/ton, reflecting market trends [1] - The soybean meal futures market closed at 2947.00 yuan/ton on July 9, with a daily trading volume of 895,519 contracts [1] Group 2 - On July 8, major oil mills in China sold 14.58 million tons of soybean meal, an increase of 6.13 million tons from the previous trading day, with 12.58 million tons sold in the spot market [2] - According to the EU Commission, soybean meal imports for the 2024/25 year reached 19.39 million tons, up from 15.28 million tons the previous year [1] - The USDA weekly crop progress report indicates that as of June 29, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. soybeans is 66%, below market expectations [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2540 - 2600. The market is influenced by factors such as the low inventory of rapeseed meal and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, but the lack of tariff on Canadian rapeseed imports limits the upside potential. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain range - bound due to the influence of imported rapeseed inventory and soybean meal prices [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No information provided. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, with expectations of improved supply in the spot market and good demand. - Canada's annual rapeseed production has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and an anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is ongoing. - Global rapeseed production has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to reduced production in the EU and lower - than - expected production in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russia's production. There is still a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - **Bearish Factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June, and the uncertainty of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports, along with the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheets from 2014 - 2023, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, and inventory - to - consumption ratio [25][26]. - **Price and Transaction Data**: It shows the average transaction price and volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from June 26 to July 7, as well as the price difference between them. The rapeseed meal futures and spot prices from June 27 to July 7 are also presented, along with the change in rapeseed meal warehouse receipts during the same period [14][16][17]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: The import volume of rapeseed in July is lower than expected, with slightly fluctuating import costs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills has rebounded from a low level, while the rapeseed meal inventory remains low. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills has slightly decreased [27][29][31]. - **Aquatic Product Data**: The production and price data of Chinese aquatic products, including fish, shellfish, and shrimp - crabs, are mentioned. The price of aquatic fish has slightly fluctuated, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [33][35][39]. 5. Position Data No information provided. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal has oscillated and declined, affected by soybean meal prices and technical adjustments. Low rapeseed meal inventory in oil mills and the peak season of short - term demand support the market, but the lack of tariff on Canadian rapeseed imports limits the upside potential [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2500, with a basis of - 79, indicating a discount to the futures price, which is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 84.67%, which is bullish [9]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and trending downward, which is bearish [9]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions have decreased, but capital has flowed in, which is bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal is expected to remain range - bound in the short - term, affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, as well as the influence of soybean meal prices [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - With the gradual establishment of downstream inventories of domestic soybean meal, the subsequent inventory accumulation speed of domestic soybean meal may accelerate under the expectation of high - opening and high - crushing of oil mills, and it is expected that the 009 contract will show a sideways movement. In the fourth quarter, there is an expectation of rising import costs for soybean meal, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices for the November and January contracts. Also, pay attention to the results of the USDA planting area report at the end of June [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis Data - The basis of the soybean meal main contract (Zhangjiagang) in Dalian was - 11 with a change of 15; in Tianjin, it was - 41 with a change of 25; in Rizhao, it was - 81 with a change of 25. The basis of 43% soybean meal spot (against the main contract) in Zhangjiagang was - 121 with a change of 5; in Dongguan, it was - 111 with a change of 35; in Zhanjiang, it was - 111 with a change of - 15; in Fangcheng, it was - 111 with a change of 5. The basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was - 2 with a change of 27 [6] 3.2 Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 389 with a change of 2; the spread of the main contract was 280 with a change of 10 [7] 3.3 International Data - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.1656, and the on - disk crushing profit was 232 yuan/ton with a change of 2 [7] 3.4 Inventory Data - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal continued to accumulate inventory. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level in the same period of history; soybean meal inventory is still at a low level in the same period of history, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises continued to rise [7][8] 3.5 Supply and Demand Situation - Supply: The arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in China in June, July, and August is expected to be over 10 million tons each month. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, the good - excellent rate of US soybeans has dropped to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean growth. Demand: From the perspective of inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November; the inventory of poultry remains at a high level; the cost - performance of soybean meal is relatively high, and the proportion of feed addition has increased. The提货 volume is at a high level; in some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein [7] 3.6开机 and Pressing Situation - The开机 rate and soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are shown in historical data analysis charts [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate between 2630 and 2690. It was affected by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes, then pulled back after rising. With the influence of soybean meal, the price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short - term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate between 2630 and 2690. The fundamentals are neutral, the basis is bearish, the inventory is bullish, the disk is bullish, the main position is bullish [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is recovering from the off - season, and the supply in the spot market is tight while demand is rising. - The annual rapeseed output in Canada has slightly decreased, supporting the foreign futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing. - Global rapeseed output has slightly decreased this year, mainly due to the decrease in EU rapeseed output and lower - than - expected Canadian rapeseed output. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed output and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an escalation of global geopolitical conflicts, which supports bulk commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed has increased after March; the result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, and the demand for rapeseed meal is in the seasonal off - season. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From June 4th to June 13th, the average trading price and trading volume data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided, as well as the average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal [13]. - **Price Data**: From June 5th to June 13th, the futures prices of rapeseed meal (main contract 2509 and far - month contract 2601) and the spot price in Fujian are provided [15]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: From June 3rd to June 13th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts and their changes compared with the previous day are provided [16]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023 are provided, including harvest area, inventory, output, consumption, etc. [24][25]. - **Other Data**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in June was lower than expected, and the import cost was strongly oscillating. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills stopped falling and rebounded, the rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills increased slightly [26][29][31]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate between 2630 and 2690. Analyze from aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, disk, main position, and expectation [9].