Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The rating for soymeal is "trading sentiment is slightly optimistic, with a sideways trend", and for soybeans it is "sideways" [3] 2. Core Views - The CBOT soybean futures rebounded on Friday due to bargain - hunting after a sharp decline on Thursday. Traders are still assessing the prospects of US soybean sales to China. China has resumed purchasing a small amount of US agricultural products, and has restored the qualification of three US companies to export soybeans to China. The soybean sowing in Argentina has completed 4.4%, 4 percentage points behind the same period last year [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybeans 2601 closed at 4118 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan (-0.56%) during the day session and down 7 yuan (-0.17%) at night; DCE soymeal 2601 closed at 3058 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan (-0.39%) during the day session and down 5 yuan (-0.16%) at night; CBOT soybeans 01 closed at 1117.25 cents/bushel, up 9.75 cents (+0.88%); CBOT soymeal 12 closed at 317 dollars/short - ton, up 4.3 dollars (+1.38%) [2] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the spot price of soymeal was 2970 - 3100 yuan/ton, down 20 - 10 yuan compared to the previous day; in East China, it was 2970 - 3100 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan to flat; in South China, it was 3000 - 3120 yuan/ton, down 30 - 10 yuan. The spot basis and forward basis in different regions also had corresponding changes [2] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soymeal was 4.7 million tons per day, compared to 4.15 million tons two days ago. The inventory of the previous week was 105.93 million tons [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soymeal and soybeans is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the main - contract futures prices during the day session on the reporting day [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week (11.03 - 11.07), US soybean futures prices fluctuated due to trade sentiment. Domestic soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures prices showed a strong - side oscillation. Next week (11.10 - 11.14), Dalian soybean meal and soybean No.1 futures prices are expected to oscillate, with attention on trade sentiment and the USDA report [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Soybean Market - **US situation**: The US government shutdown continued, and the export sales report was suspended [1]. - **Brazil situation**: - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans increased week - on - week, while the CNF premium and the average crushing profit decreased week - on - week [1][8][11]. - As of the week of October 30, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was about 47%, slower than the previous week (36%) and last year's same period (about 54%) [1][8]. - According to the November 7 weather forecast, in the next two weeks (November 8 - 21), the precipitation and temperature in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be basically normal, while in Argentina, the precipitation will be less and the temperature will be "initially low and then gradually return to normal" [1]. Domestic Soybean Meal - **Futures**: The main m2601 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 1.22% in the week of November 7, possibly due to doubts about China's procurement scale of US soybeans [1]. - **Spot**: - The trading volume and提货 volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of November 7, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills in China was about 90,000 tons (compared with about 110,000 tons in the previous week), and the average daily提货 volume of major oil mills was about 180,000 tons (compared with about 196,000 tons in the previous week) [2]. - The basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of November 7, the weekly average basis was about 0 yuan/ton (compared with about - 0.2 yuan/ton in the previous week) [2]. - The inventory of soybean meal increased week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of October 31, the inventory of mainstream oil mills in China was about 1.02 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 8% and a year - on - year increase of about 16% [2]. - The soybean crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to increase next week. As of the week of November 7, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 1.81 million tons (compared with 2.25 million tons in the previous week), and the operating rate was about 50%. Next week (November 8 - 14), the crushing volume is expected to be about 2.16 million tons, and the operating rate will be 59% [2][3]. Domestic Soybean No.1 - **Futures**: The main a2601 contract of soybean No.1 had a weekly increase of 0.39% in the week of November 7, also affected by trade sentiment [1]. - **Spot**: - The soybean price was stable with a slight upward trend. In some northeastern regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 3,940 - 4,040 yuan/ton, up 0 - 60 yuan/ton from the previous week; in some inland regions, it was in the range of 4,800 - 5,040 yuan/ton, up 100 - 180 yuan/ton; in the northern sales areas, the selling price of edible soybeans was in the range of 4,440 - 4,660 yuan/ton, up 20 - 40 yuan/ton [4]. - The state - reserve purchase started, and the purchase prices for some protein standards were slightly higher than the market price, which was a positive factor [4]. - In the early part of the week (before the storage policy was announced), farmers' hoarding mentality weakened, and traders were on the sidelines. In the later part of the week (after the storage policy was announced and the futures trend was strong), some trading entities' purchase mentality became positive again, while farmers continued to hoard [4]. - The demand in the northern sales areas was fair, while the southern market was flat. The sales of northeastern soybeans in the northern market were okay due to the decrease in temperature and the increase in vegetable prices, while the terminal demand for soybean products in the southern market was weak, and downstream markets purchased as needed [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for soybean meal is to wait and see due to fluctuating trade sentiment, and for soybean No. 1 is to expect a sideways movement [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 6, CBOT soybean futures closed lower as Chinese demand was limited, dampening optimism about new demand after the trade truce. The slow progress of Chinese purchases and the lack of details in the soybean procurement signing ceremony in Shanghai increased market caution. Chinese buyers may be concerned about profit margins and supply. Currently, US soybean FOB quotes are slightly higher than Brazilian ones, and in February 2026, Brazilian soybeans will be nearly $1 per bushel cheaper. Traders are also watching the upcoming November USDA supply - demand report. In the long run, Citigroup believes China will resume large - scale purchases of US soybeans, which may push prices up to $11.50 per bushel in the next three months and $12.50 in the next 12 months. New biofuel policies are also expected to support prices [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean No. 1 2601 had a day - session closing price of 4149 yuan/ton (+69, +1.69%), and a night - session closing price of 4146 yuan/ton (+8, +0.19%); DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - session closing price of 3068 yuan/ton (+29, +0.95%) and a night - session closing price of 3058 yuan/ton (-12, -0.39%); CBOT soybean 01 was at 1108 cents per bushel (-26.5, -2.34%); CBOT soybean meal 12 was at $312.8 per short ton (-12.1, -3.72%) [2] - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis for soybean meal was M2601 + 40, down 10 from the previous day. Different regions and time periods had various basis levels, such as in Shandong, 12 - 1 months were at 3010 - 3120 yuan/ton, and different mills in different regions had their own basis adjustments [2] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 4.15 million tons per day (down from 10.2 million tons the previous trading day), and the inventory was 105.93 million tons per week (up from 100.44 million tons the previous week) [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity for soybean meal and soybean No. 1 was 0, indicating a neutral situation for the day - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the reporting day [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the oil and fat market has improved, and it is waiting for the fermentation of bullish factors. The protein meal market has seen a decline with reduced positions and light trading. The corn/starch market has shown stable to weak spot prices and an increase in positions on the futures market. The hog market is experiencing price fluctuations due to farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices. The natural rubber market has rebounded strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. The synthetic rubber market has seen a temporary improvement in sentiment as raw material prices have stabilized. The cotton market is fluctuating within a narrow range with limited upside and downside potential. The sugar market is testing its lower support in the short term. The pulp market has continued to rise, and the enthusiasm for futures - cash arbitrage has increased. The double - glue paper market has strengthened following the pulp market. The log market is oscillating at the bottom [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil and Fats - **View**: The market sentiment has improved, waiting for bullish factors to ferment. The outlook is that palm oil, rapeseed oil, and soybean oil will oscillate. - **Logic**: Optimistic trade sentiment led to the rise of US soybeans on Wednesday, and domestic oils stopped falling and rose yesterday, with palm and rapeseed oils being relatively strong. The US government is in a "shutdown," and the market doubts the Fed's further interest rate cuts this year. US crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly. From an industrial perspective, US soybean data updates are suspended. The US soybean harvest is nearly over, and the market expects a high probability of a decline in US soybean yield. China's tariff adjustment policy boosts the export demand for US soybeans. Brazilian soybean planting is going smoothly. The arrival of imported soybeans in China may be at a relatively high level, and the de - stocking of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. In October, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased month - on - month, and the probability of inventory accumulation is high. Indonesia's palm oil inventory remains low due to increased consumption in biodiesel. India's vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. With the large - scale listing of Russian rapeseed, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil is expected to increase [2][6]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The market has seen a decline with reduced positions and light trading. The outlook is that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are oscillating at a high level, and the positive impact of China's purchases has been gradually digested. Attention should be paid to the US soybean yield and the growth of South American soybeans. The export volume of old - crop Brazilian soybeans in October decreased, but the discount is more favorable than that of the US. Brazilian soybeans will enter a critical growth period in November, and the impact of La Nina should be monitored. CBOT US soybeans are approaching a reasonable valuation, and new bullish factors are needed for an upward movement. Domestically, in the short term, the import and crushing profit of the January futures contract is still in the red, and profit margins need to be provided to stimulate ship purchases. In the medium term, the quantity of China's US soybean purchases will be gradually realized. The South American weather and the strength of the fourth - quarter consumption season will determine the upward potential of soybean meal. In the long term, there is expected to be no gap in soybean supply and demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, and rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [6]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Spot prices are stable to weak, and the futures market has increased positions and risen. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is generally stable with local fluctuations. In the Northeast, farmers are reluctant to sell as the temperature drops, and the supply pressure has eased. However, there are bottlenecks in transportation capacity, leading to increased freight costs and a slow - to - resolve shortage in the sales area. In November, the market is still under the pressure of new grain listing. The expected increase in production in the Northeast will drag down prices. Feed - using enterprises are mainly replenishing inventory based on rigid demand, and there is insufficient upward driving force for prices before large - scale inventory building occurs [7][8]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices, and prices are oscillating. The outlook is for a weak oscillation. - **Logic**: The supply and demand are loose, but farmers' reluctance to sell at low prices after the price weakens has led to a low - level oscillation of hog prices. In the short term, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in hog prices has suppressed the enthusiasm for second - fattening. In the medium term, the number of sows capable of reproduction was at a high level in the first half of 2025, and the number of newborn piglets increased from January to September. It is expected that the hog slaughter volume will continue to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the capacity of sows capable of reproduction has started to decline. With the dual drivers of "policy + losses," the reduction of sow production is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the second half of 2026. The demand has increased slightly as the temperature drops. Group farms are actively selling, and the average weight has decreased. The enthusiasm for second - fattening has weakened [8]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The market has rebounded strongly, and its sustainability needs attention. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The rebound of the natural rubber market is in line with the rebound rhythm of commodities. The fundamental situation can provide some bottom support. The RU warehouse receipts have been continuously cancelled, and the new rubber registration progress is slow, with a lower valuation compared to NR. The import pressure in November may be relatively large, which will put pressure on the upside of NR. The short - term spread between RU and NR may be repaired. The recent price fluctuations are mainly affected by the macro - environment. If there is no further macro - driving force, the rubber price may face downward adjustment pressure. However, as it enters November, there may still be room for speculation about domestic rubber - cutting suspension and RU warehouse receipts, so the downside space is relatively limited [9][11]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and sentiment has temporarily improved. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The BR main contract has switched to the January contract and continued to rebound, returning to the level before Tuesday's decline. The improvement in sentiment is due to the better trading volume and temporary stabilization of butadiene prices, along with a strong rebound in the overall commodity market. The price of butadiene dropped rapidly last week to a record low this year. The supply - demand contradiction in the market has intensified, and the cautious attitude of downstream buyers has led to poor trading volume. Although the downstream buyers have gradually entered the market after the price dropped to a low level, and the supply side of butadiene intends to stop the price decline, buyers are still cautious. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the improvement in trading sentiment can continue to support the butadiene price. In the medium term, the supply - demand of butadiene will remain in surplus in the next two months before the end of the year, and the price may decline further [12]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The market is fluctuating within a narrow range with limited upside and downside potential. The short - term outlook is for the January contract to oscillate within a range, and the long - term outlook is for a bullish oscillation. - **Logic**: The increase in the new - season Xinjiang cotton production is less than expected, and the purchase cost has increased, which supported the cotton price to oscillate strongly in October. The improvement in Sino - US trade relations and the reduction of import tariffs on US cotton are expected to promote US cotton exports to China and China's textile exports next year, but the short - term impact is limited. With the listing of new cotton, the supply has increased, and the cotton price is under pressure. At the same time, the profit from hedging has gradually emerged, and there is hedging pressure on the upside of the cotton price. The upper pressure on the January contract is 13,600 - 13,800 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 13,300 - 13,400 yuan/ton [13]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: The market is testing its lower support in the short term. The long - term outlook is for a weak oscillation. - **Logic**: In the international market, the peak of Brazil's bi - weekly sugar production has ended, and the export volume in October has decreased, which may marginally improve the loose international trade flow. However, as the Northern Hemisphere enters the peak crushing season, the supply of new sugar will increase, and the downward pressure on international sugar prices remains. Brazil's cumulative sugar production has increased slightly year - on - year, and the market's expectation of Brazil's production increase has not changed. Thailand and India are expected to increase production in the new season. In the domestic market, the demand from August to September was average, and the industrial inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan have increased year - on - year. Although the tightening of import controls on syrups and premixes and the expected exhaustion of import licenses have made the domestic market relatively strong, there is still downward pressure on the domestic market as the southern sugar enters the peak crushing season [14][15]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: The market has continued to rise, and the enthusiasm for futures - cash arbitrage has increased. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The recent rise is due to the expected increase in the price of downstream paper driven by the increase in packaging paper prices and the improvement in the tender demand for cultural paper, as well as the increase in wood chip prices. From a medium - term perspective, the previously traded bearish factors have not completely ended. Although the bullish factors in downstream demand may bring short - term bullishness, the upward space is expected to be limited. On the fundamental side, the demand for softwood pulp has been low due to formula adjustments in recent years. There is export pressure from overseas to China, and the import price in US dollars remains weak. The hardwood pulp market has an obvious surplus situation. Although the demand has increased seasonally, it is difficult to support the price above the production cost. The futures main contract price is approaching the prices of some brands, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium under the weak supply - demand background. The large number of expiring warehouse receipts this year will also put pressure on the futures price. However, there are also some bullish factors, such as the obvious increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the cost of hardwood imports, and the expected marginal improvement in cultural paper demand in November and December. The paper pulp futures market is inclined to a wait - and - see attitude [16]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - **View**: The market has strengthened following the pulp market. The outlook is for oscillation. - **Logic**: The price of double - glue paper in Shandong has remained stable. The market supply is abundant, and the consumption - side support is insufficient. The supply - demand relationship is still weak, and the support from wood pulp is limited. The new production facilities are operating stably, and the paper supply surplus is still severe. The demand side has seen the start of publishing tenders, but the social orders have not improved significantly, and the overall downstream consumption is still weak. Some factories are facing greater production and sales pressure. Although some paper enterprises have announced price increase plans in early November, the market is waiting and seeing, and most prices will remain stable at the end - of - month settlement. The publishing tenders have not yet started intensively, and the demand side has no obvious positive factors. The upstream wood pulp price is under pressure, and the cost support for double - glue paper is limited. The price of double - glue paper is expected to stabilize [17]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: The market is oscillating at the bottom. The outlook is for a weak oscillation. - **Logic**: The log market has remained weak and stable this week. On the one hand, traders are actively selling, and the decline in the sales volume of laminated wood has put pressure on the price of sawn timber, leading to downward pressure on the spot market. On the other hand, New Zealand log suppliers have adjusted their quotes, and there will be a greater pressure of blue - stained timber on the arrival of ships in the future, which will also put pressure on the spot market. The log peak season is gradually ending, and the port outbound volume will decline. After the peak season in mid - fourth quarter, the log inventory may accumulate again. Although the market has a short - term bearish sentiment, the log valuation is not high, and the inventory in the Jiangsu market is relatively low, so the downward space is limited. The speculative side is advised to wait and see [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend due to technical selling pressure and optimistic expectations regarding the US-China trade negotiations and the potential end of the US government shutdown [1][3] - The market is expected to remain weak until the government shutdown is resolved, with a focus on trade conditions and interest rate expectations [3] - Historical context suggests that optimistic sentiments regarding trade are often temporary, and the end of the government shutdown may lead to concerns about economic data deterioration and increased expectations for interest rate cuts, which could ultimately support gold prices [3] Group 2 - The daily chart shows a significant drop in gold prices, falling below the 5-10 day moving averages, indicating strengthened bearish momentum [3] - Despite the current downward trend, there are indications of potential support at the Bollinger Band middle line and the 30-day moving average, suggesting a possible opportunity for bullish entry near these support levels [3] - The market is expected to experience a period of consolidation and adjustment, with a bullish outlook remaining intact, particularly if prices dip below the 4000 threshold [3]

Core Insights - The Euro/USD has risen to a two-week high, approaching 1.1770 amid volatile trading conditions [2] - Improved trade sentiment has led to a slight retreat of the US dollar [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming meeting [4][10] Trade and Economic Sentiment - The slight increase in the Euro reflects a mild pullback in the Dollar Index (DXY), driven by improved trade prospects [5] - Recent US-Japan trade agreements have provided some relief to global markets, while potential US-EU agreements are boosting risk sentiment [7] - The ECB's cautious stance is influenced by external demand signals, with a recent cut in deposit rates to 2.00% [9] Market Positioning - As of July 15, speculators have increased their long positions in the Euro to approximately 128.2K contracts, the largest bet since December 2023 [11] - Conversely, commercial participants have expanded their short positions to nearly 184.2K contracts, marking the largest hedge in months [11] Technical Analysis - A breakthrough above the 2025 high of 1.1830 could pave the way for testing the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [12] - Conversely, a drop below the July low of 1.1556 may lead the currency pair towards the transitional 55-day SMA of 1.1501 [13] Momentum Indicators - Momentum has improved but remains unstable, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeding 62 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 22 [14] Influencing Factors - The Euro's rebound occurs against a backdrop of tariff tensions and widening policy gaps between the Federal Reserve and the ECB [17]