今日Ultima Markets为您带来了 2025年7月24日的欧元/美元深入分析。 ·由于贸易情绪改善，美元小幅回落。 ·欧洲央行（ECB）将在周四召开会议，预计将维持利率不变。 周三，欧元（EUR）小幅上涨，足以使欧元/美元的正面走势连续第四天保持不变。 小幅上涨反映了美元指数（DXY）的温和回调，因贸易前景的进一步改善使其下跌，而美联储独立性的问题依然存在。 关税时钟继续滴答 将华盛顿的下一个关税决定推迟到8月1日并没有让任何人感到安心。 然而，最近达成的美日贸易协议为全球市场提供了一些喘息之机，而潜在的美欧协议的进展则激励了风险情绪。 布鲁塞尔预计谈判将陷入僵局，正在重新审视"反胁迫"工具，如果谈判失败，可能限制美国服务的进入或禁止美国公司参与欧盟招标。如果协议难以达 成，特朗普总统警告称，欧洲将成为直接目标。 央行政策分歧 ·欧元/美元在相当波动的交易中上涨至两周高点，接近1.1770。 与此同时，大多数交易员预计，管理委员会在周四的会议上将坚持这一谨慎立场，保持关键利率不变。 头寸分化：投机者看涨，套期保值者看跌 截至7月15日的CFTC数据显示，投机者将欧元多头头寸增加至约128.2K份合约， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair continues to rise, breaking the 1.1700 level, driven by recent positive sentiment towards the Euro amidst trade tensions affecting the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Tensions - Ongoing trade instability has put selling pressure on the US dollar, with the market closely watching upcoming speeches from Jerome Powell and the European Central Bank (ECB) [2]. - The worsening trade situation has led to concerns over global trade conflicts, with potential tariffs on European exports and imports from Japan and South Korea, prompting investors to seek safety in the dollar [3]. - The EU is considering broad "counter-coercion" measures in response to US tariffs, which could target US services or limit access to public tenders if no agreement is reached by the August 1 deadline [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Divergence - The minutes from the June Federal Reserve meeting revealed a split among committee members regarding immediate rate cuts, with some advocating for caution until the inflation impact of new tariffs is clearer [4]. - The rise in US consumer prices in June has reinforced Powell's cautious stance, while the ECB has lowered its deposit rate and indicated that new stimulus measures will depend on clearer signs of weak external demand [5]. Group 3: Market Positioning - As of July 15, speculators have increased bullish bets on the Euro, raising net long positions to approximately 128.2K contracts, the highest level since December 2023 [6]. - Commercial traders have increased their net short positions to about 184.2K contracts, marking the highest level in several months, with open interest rising for the fourth consecutive week to over 820K contracts, the highest since March 2023 [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - For the Euro/USD to continue its upward trajectory, it needs to break above the July 1 high of 1.1830, targeting the peak of 1.1852 from June 2018 [8]. - Conversely, a drop below the July low of 1.1556 could lead to a decline towards the transitional 55-day moving average of 1.1485, followed by the weekly low of 1.1210 from May 29, and ultimately the psychologically significant level of 1.1000 [8]. Group 5: Momentum Indicators - Current momentum indicators show a moderate trend, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising close to 57, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains around 22, indicating a lack of strong confidence in the current trend [9]. Group 6: Considerations - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies, combined with the growing divergence between the Federal Reserve and ECB policies, suggests that the Euro may face challenges in regaining its previous strength [12].