本轮澳元走强核心在于澳美央行政策背离。2025年美联储三次降息至3.5%-3.75%，而澳洲联储12月会议 维持3.60%利率不变，宣告降息周期收尾。"美松澳稳"重构利差预期，市场押注2026年澳联储或加息近 两次，美联储仅降息两次，资金流向澳元资产形成支撑。 两大央行政策分歧持续扩大。澳联储上调通胀预期，预计2026年6月CPI升至3.7%，行长布洛克排除进 一步宽松，释放鹰派信号，机构预判通胀高企可能触发提前加息。 2026年开年，澳元兑美元稳步走强，截至1月7日10时，汇率报0.6740，微涨0.0594%。自1月1日开盘 0.6673以来，累计涨幅超1%，展现出较强韧性。澳洲联储与美联储政策分化预期是核心驱动力，而澳 通胀数据及美非农报告则带来短期不确定性。 基本面方面，澳政府上调财年GDP预期，非矿业投资改善，财政状况边际好转；美元储备地位承压、双 赤字问题构成长期贬值压力。但澳元作为商品货币，铁矿石等出口品价格波动仍是主要隐忧。 短期看，澳通胀数据与美非农报告是关键变量：澳通胀超预期将强化加息预期，美非农数据强劲或推升 美元。叠加跨年流动性枯竭，澳元可能出现短期大幅波动。 机构对澳元偏乐观，国民银 ...

ING首席国际经济学家James Knightley指出，美联储在全球央行中"逆势而行"，依然处于明显的宽松模 式。 基于这一预期，华尔街银行预计欧元兑美元将在2026年底前升至1.20，英镑兑美元则将从目前的1.33攀 升至1.36。美元今年的疲软虽然利好美国出口商，但对于那些在美国产生销售收入的欧洲企业而言，则 构成了业绩拖累。 美联储主席人选引发市场焦虑 在唐纳德·特朗普重返白宫执政的第一年，美元正遭遇自2017年以来最严重的年度抛售潮。 受贸易战引发的经济担忧及美联储宽松货币政策预期的双重打压，这一全球储备货币的避险地位面临严 峻考验，市场正重新评估美元在"川普2.0"时代的资产价值。 根据金融时报的数据显示，美元兑一篮子主要货币今年已大幅下挫9.5%，不仅创下近十年来最大年度 跌幅，更被德意志银行全球外汇研究主管George Saravelos形容为自由浮动汇率历史上美元表现最糟糕 的年份之一。欧元成为主要受益者，兑美元汇率飙升近14%，突破1.17关口，达到2021年以来的最高水 平。 导致美元走软的关键转折点始于今年4月，当时特朗普针对美国贸易伙伴发起了激进的关税战，尽管美 元随后收复了部分失地 ...

技术面看，汇价在1.3310-1.3380区间整理，短期均线微倾反映下行压力，RSI 42处于中性偏低水平。跌 破1.3310支撑或下探1.3250-1.3180；突破1.3380阻力则有望测试1.3400。 短期看，英国央行12月决议与美联储表态将决定汇价方向：英央行如期降息+美联储鹰派或致英镑下 行；暂缓降息+美联储鸽派或推动反弹。中长期，英美经济复苏、央行宽松差异及全球风险情绪主导走 势，市场预期2026年汇价前低后高，全年中枢1.29-1.32。 美联储2025年已三次降息累计75个基点，当前利率区间3.50%-3.75%。12月决议3票反对创6年新高，内 部对明年政策分歧加剧；市场预期其2026年底前降息54个基点，低于英央行宽松幅度。这种预期差进一 步制约英镑兑美元反弹。 经济与财政为汇价增添变量。英国11月CPI同比3.2%超预期回落，为降息提供空间，但失业率高企、 GDP增速放缓、服务业PMI低迷等经济疲软迹象削弱英镑支撑。秋季预算案带来的220亿英镑财政缓冲 短期缓解债务担忧，但长期增长预期下调仍存压力。 12月19日亚洲时段，英镑兑美元在1.3370一线窄幅震荡，微涨0.0075%，日内高 ...

据存款信托和清算公司（DTCC）的统计数据显示，本月交易最活跃的行权价位于每欧元 1.18 美元，其中基础价值的绝大部分集中在 12 月 18 日至 19 日(欧 洲央行利率决议窗口期)到期的合约。这些资金流向表明，到决策者完成会议时，欧元汇率将交投于该水平之上。 据熟悉资金流向的外汇交易员透露，对冲基金是本周欧元看涨价格走势的主要推动者，他们抢购了普通和奇异期权，这些期权将在欧元走强时获利。 本周美联储连续第三次降息，以及欧洲央行执行委员会委员伊莎贝尔·施纳贝尔的鹰派言论之后，欧元徘徊在两个多月高点附近。目前，针对欧洲央行 12 月 18 日决议的期权情绪是近三个月来最看涨的。 智通财经APP注意到，期权交易员预计，鉴于下周欧洲央行公布的利率决议预计将凸显其与美联储的政策分歧，欧元的涨势将在下周获得新的动力。 在决议公布前买入波动性的成本是三个月来最昂贵的，交易员将此归因于施纳贝尔的言论。即使欧洲央行明年不加息，摩根士丹利的策略师们仍然预计，到 2026 年第二季度，欧元将升至 1.30 美元。 ...

Group 1 - Fund managers are adopting a cautious stance, reducing exposure to risk assets and favoring low-volatility defensive investments as the fourth quarter begins [2] - Concerns about private credit markets have intensified following the bankruptcies of Tricolor and First Brands, leading to fears of credit issues spreading to other markets [2][3] - The potential for stagflation is being closely monitored, with tariffs and political interventions raising concerns about unexpected inflation increases in the U.S. [3][4] Group 2 - The credibility of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny due to political pressures, which could impact its ability to manage inflation effectively [4][5] - Divergence in global central bank policies is seen as both a challenge and an opportunity, with significant internal volatility across various asset classes [5][6] - The European Central Bank is expected to maintain interest rates in October, with a more optimistic growth forecast for 2025 driven by stable growth in member countries [5][6]

Core Insights - The Euro/USD has risen to a two-week high, approaching 1.1770 amid volatile trading conditions [2] - Improved trade sentiment has led to a slight retreat of the US dollar [3] - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates during its upcoming meeting [4][10] Trade and Economic Sentiment - The slight increase in the Euro reflects a mild pullback in the Dollar Index (DXY), driven by improved trade prospects [5] - Recent US-Japan trade agreements have provided some relief to global markets, while potential US-EU agreements are boosting risk sentiment [7] - The ECB's cautious stance is influenced by external demand signals, with a recent cut in deposit rates to 2.00% [9] Market Positioning - As of July 15, speculators have increased their long positions in the Euro to approximately 128.2K contracts, the largest bet since December 2023 [11] - Conversely, commercial participants have expanded their short positions to nearly 184.2K contracts, marking the largest hedge in months [11] Technical Analysis - A breakthrough above the 2025 high of 1.1830 could pave the way for testing the June 2018 high of 1.1852 [12] - Conversely, a drop below the July low of 1.1556 may lead the currency pair towards the transitional 55-day SMA of 1.1501 [13] Momentum Indicators - Momentum has improved but remains unstable, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) exceeding 62 and the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 22 [14] Influencing Factors - The Euro's rebound occurs against a backdrop of tariff tensions and widening policy gaps between the Federal Reserve and the ECB [17]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro/USD pair continues to rise, breaking the 1.1700 level, driven by recent positive sentiment towards the Euro amidst trade tensions affecting the US dollar [1][2]. Group 1: Trade Tensions - Ongoing trade instability has put selling pressure on the US dollar, with the market closely watching upcoming speeches from Jerome Powell and the European Central Bank (ECB) [2]. - The worsening trade situation has led to concerns over global trade conflicts, with potential tariffs on European exports and imports from Japan and South Korea, prompting investors to seek safety in the dollar [3]. - The EU is considering broad "counter-coercion" measures in response to US tariffs, which could target US services or limit access to public tenders if no agreement is reached by the August 1 deadline [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Divergence - The minutes from the June Federal Reserve meeting revealed a split among committee members regarding immediate rate cuts, with some advocating for caution until the inflation impact of new tariffs is clearer [4]. - The rise in US consumer prices in June has reinforced Powell's cautious stance, while the ECB has lowered its deposit rate and indicated that new stimulus measures will depend on clearer signs of weak external demand [5]. Group 3: Market Positioning - As of July 15, speculators have increased bullish bets on the Euro, raising net long positions to approximately 128.2K contracts, the highest level since December 2023 [6]. - Commercial traders have increased their net short positions to about 184.2K contracts, marking the highest level in several months, with open interest rising for the fourth consecutive week to over 820K contracts, the highest since March 2023 [6]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - For the Euro/USD to continue its upward trajectory, it needs to break above the July 1 high of 1.1830, targeting the peak of 1.1852 from June 2018 [8]. - Conversely, a drop below the July low of 1.1556 could lead to a decline towards the transitional 55-day moving average of 1.1485, followed by the weekly low of 1.1210 from May 29, and ultimately the psychologically significant level of 1.1000 [8]. Group 5: Momentum Indicators - Current momentum indicators show a moderate trend, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rising close to 57, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains around 22, indicating a lack of strong confidence in the current trend [9]. Group 6: Considerations - The uncertainty surrounding US tariff policies, combined with the growing divergence between the Federal Reserve and ECB policies, suggests that the Euro may face challenges in regaining its previous strength [12].