明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/9/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | 1653.9 | 1093.700 | | 21.4↑ EC次主力收盘价 | +27.80↑ | | 期货盘面 | +19.30↑ EC2510-EC2602价差 -479.90 EC2510-EC2512价差 | -560.20 | | | +32.10↑ | | EC合约基差 | -228.52↓ | 161.22 | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | -1685↓ | 46030 | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | -185.32↓ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 1,193.64 | 1440.24 | | | -156.20↓ | | SCFI（综合指数）（周） | -199.90↓ 集装箱船运力（万标准箱） 1,227.97 | 1 ...

9月1日（截至北京时间17:00），现货黄金最高触及3489.86美元/盎司，距离历史新高仅有一步之遥。与此同时， COMEX黄金期货价格盘中最高冲至3557.1美元/盎司，站上历史最高点。截至9月1日15时，COMEX黄金期货今年 以来累计上涨近35%。 9月2日，国际金价震荡走高。其中，现货黄金突破3500美元，最高达3508.49元/盎司；COMEX黄金期货盘中最高 涨超1%，最高报价3578.4美元/盎司。双双再创历史新高。 | 现货黄金(XAU) 加自选 | | ☆ 收藏 ○ 刷新 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3496.99 | 美元/盎司 | 转换 | | | +21.64 0.62% | | 交易中: 2025-09-02 10:00:03 | | | 开盘:3473.44 收盘:3475.35 | 最高:3508.49 | 最低:3473.29 | | | 分时图 日K 園K | 月K | 5分 直零 | | | 3505.06 | | | 0.85% | | 3490.21 | | | 0.43% | | 3475.35 | | | -0.00% | | ...

Core Insights - Gold prices surged by 2.3% last week, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook by President Trump, which may increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Bloomberg highlights that the decision regarding Cook could impact the future of the Federal Reserve, as concerns over its independence may weaken investor confidence in the U.S. [1] - The recent ruling by a U.S. appeals court declaring most tariffs illegal adds to market uncertainty, further enhancing gold's appeal [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts predict gold prices could break through $3,450 per ounce and potentially challenge the record high of $3,500 per ounce due to ongoing concerns about the Fed's independence and trade war uncertainties [2] - The current trend indicates that if buying momentum continues, gold prices may rise above $3,500 per ounce, with resistance levels at $3,550 and $3,600 [2] - Conversely, if gold prices fall below the June 16 high of $3,452 per ounce, they may decline towards the July 23 high of $3,438 per ounce, with a potential drop to $3,400 [2] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish trend, with resistance levels at $3,500, $3,510, and $3,520, while support levels are at $3,479, $3,466, and $3,453 [3] - The momentum is strong, with a quantitative cycle exceeding three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [3] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include the Eurozone's August CPI year-on-year and month-on-month initial values, as well as the U.S. August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value and ISM Manufacturing PMI [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2510 fell 3.31%, and the far - month contracts fell between 2 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 8.7% week - on - week, and the spot indicators continued to fall, which is expected to drive down the futures prices. With shipping companies engaging in a "price war" and the global trade situation being uncertain due to potential tariff increases, and the weakening of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, coupled with the weak demand expectation for the container shipping index (European line) and large fluctuations in futures prices, investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures盘面 - EC main contract closing price is 1285.000, down 44.0; EC sub - main contract closing price is 1571, down 62.90. The spread between EC2510 and EC2512 is - 286.00, up 18.50; the spread between EC2510 and EC2602 is - 115.00, up 9.80. The EC contract basis is 705.20, up 31.00. The main contract position of EC is 54,248, up 523 [1] Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) is 1990.20, down 189.97; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly) is 1,041.38, down 64.91. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1415.36, down 44.83; container ship capacity is 1,227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.44. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1174.87, down 18.47; CCFI (European line) (weekly) is 1,757.74, down 32.73. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2046.00, down 5.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1,874.00, down 56.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships is 14,606.00, up 204.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 26,364.00, down 1704.00 [1] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports. In June, the global economic and trade friction index was 92, in the medium - high range. Affected by factors such as the US extending the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the global economic and trade friction continued to ease, with the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures decreasing by 14.7% year - on - year and 13.7% month - on - month. The New York Fed President Williams said it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time and is quite optimistic about the economic situation [1] Key Points to Watch - On August 29, important economic data will be released, including Japan's July unemployment rate, France's August CPI monthly rate preliminary value, France's second - quarter GDP annual rate final value, Germany's August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's August CPI monthly rate preliminary value, the US July core PCE price index annual rate, the US July personal expenditure monthly rate, and the US August University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [1]

三、利率政策僵局：贸易战阴影下的按兵不动 美联储本月连续第三次维持利率在4.25%-4.50%区间不变，鲍威尔在演讲中虽未直接提及货币政策，但强 调"贸易战的不确定性"是决策关键。特朗普近期多次指责美联储"降息太迟"，声称"美国没有通胀"，但美联储官员普遍认为，政府关税政策已导致经济前景 模糊，此时降息可能加剧市场波动。芝加哥联储行长古尔斯比23日更表示，"一切选项都在桌面上"，但需等待贸易局势明朗化。 四、政治博弈：鲍威尔的 坚守与特朗普的困境 鲍威尔的连任任期将于2026年5月结束，而特朗普政府的施压已引发市场对美联储独立性的担忧。尽管特朗普4月曾改口称"无意解雇鲍 威尔"，但其持续的舆论攻击与关税政策仍在挑战美联储的决策空间。分析指出，最高法院的裁决虽未完全排除罢免可能，但已显著提升了政治成本，鲍威 尔短期内地位稳固。与此同时，美联储对贸易战风险的审慎态度，也凸显了货币政策在政治干预与经济现实间的艰难平衡。 这场演讲不仅是鲍威尔对个人职业操守的宣誓，更是美联储在政治风暴中的一次立场宣示。在普林斯顿大学的象征意义加持下，鲍威尔以"服务公民"的呼 吁，将机构辩护升华为对公共价值的捍卫，为这场持续的权力博弈增 ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | | | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | 2025/5/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 | -47.6↓ EC次主力收盘价 | 1677.200 | | 2121.1 | -164.00↓ | | 期货盘面 | EC2506-EC2508价差 +93.30↑ EC2506-EC2510价差 | -443.90 | | 257.60 | -32.30↓ | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | EC合约基差 | -411.90 | +48.70↑ | | | | | | 25907 | 0↑ | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） | 1265.30 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report focuses on the impact of trade - war uncertainties on upstream prices and provides an overview of the mid - view events and the industry situation. It also mentions that the credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - view Events Overview - **Production Industry**: The National Energy Administration issued a notice to promote the development of private economy in the energy field, supporting private enterprises to invest in energy infrastructure projects such as nuclear power, hydropower, oil and gas storage facilities, and LNG receiving stations [1]. - **Service Industry**: As of April 27, the average pre - sale price of domestic civil aviation tickets for the "May Day" holiday dropped slightly to about 864 yuan, up 9.75% compared to 2019 and down 7.09% compared to 2024, showing a stable trend [1]. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International oil prices are continuously fluctuating due to tariffs; prices of copper, zinc, and nickel are oscillating; cement and building material prices are continuously falling; egg prices are rising [2]. - **Midstream**: The PTA operating rate has rebounded, the PX operating rate has recently declined, and the operating rates of polyester and urea are at this year's high. The asphalt operating rate has reached a three - year low [2]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as last year and at a three - year low. The number of international flights has increased, while the number of domestic flights has decreased compared to the same period [2]. Market Pricing The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [3]. Data Charts The report includes various data charts on coal consumption, inventory, operating rates of different industries, traffic congestion indexes, movie box office, flight execution, and real - estate transaction data [4]. Industry Credit Spread Tracking It provides the credit spread data of multiple industries, including past data from last year, a quarter ago, a month ago, last week, and this week, as well as the quantile data [44]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking It shows the price indexes of multiple industries, including the frequency, unit, update time, current value, year - on - year change, and the trend in the past 5 days [45].