Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - On Monday, the freight index (Europe line) futures prices rose collectively, with the main contract EC2510 up 2%, and the far - month contracts up 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS Europe line settlement freight rate index dropped 185.32 points from last week, down 12.9% month - on - month. Spot indicators continued to decline with a wider decline. Geopolitical conflicts support freight rates, but before the National Day holiday, shipping companies cut rates to attract cargo, and the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged with high freight rate pressure. The "price war" has made the fundamentals under pressure. The Fed cut interest rates, and the eurozone's internal demand is weak. Overall, the demand for the freight index (Europe line) is weak, and the futures price fluctuates greatly. Investors are advised to be cautious and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data [1] Summary by Directory Futures Data - EC2510 - EC2602 spread is - 479.90, EC2510 - EC2512 spread is - 560.20, and EC2510 - EC2602 spread increased by 32.10. The EC contract basis is - 228.52. The EC main contract position decreased by 1685 to 46030 hands [1] Spot Data - SCFIS (Europe line) (weekly) decreased by 185.32 to 1193.64, SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) decreased by 156.20 to 1440.24, SCFI (composite index) (weekly) decreased by 199.90 to 1198.21, CCFI (composite index) (weekly) decreased by 5.07, CCFI (Europe line) (weekly) decreased by 66.31 to 1470.97. The Baltic Dry Bulk Index (daily) increased by 2.00, the Panama - type freight index (daily) increased by 36.00 to 1845.00. The average charter price of Panama - type ships decreased by 77.00 to 14490.00, and that of Cape - type ships increased by 1625.00 to 30205.00 [1] Industry News - The State Council executive meeting studied relevant policies on implementing domestic product standards in government procurement and discussed and passed the draft amendment to the Banking Supervision Law. Trump launched the "Trump Gold Card" visa plan, expected to raise over $100 billion for the US government. In August, China's foreign exchange market was stable, with non - bank cross - border receipts and payments of $1.3 trillion, an 8% year - on - year increase, a net inflow of cross - border funds of $3.2 billion, and a bank settlement and sales surplus of $14.6 billion. Foreign investors were net buyers of domestic stocks and bonds [1] Key Events to Watch - September 23rd includes France's September manufacturing PMI preliminary value at 15:15, Germany's at 15:30, the eurozone's at 16:00, the UK's at 16:30, and the US's S&P Global manufacturing PMI preliminary value at 21:45 [1]

Group 1 - The international gold price has been rising, with spot gold surpassing $3,500, reaching a peak of $3,508.49 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures hitting $3,578.4 per ounce, both setting historical highs [1] - The international gold price has increased for several consecutive days, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to heightened investor risk aversion. The gold price rose by 2.86% last week and recorded a cumulative increase of over 5% in August, marking the best monthly performance since April [4] - As of September 1, spot gold reached a high of $3,489.86 per ounce, just shy of the historical peak, while COMEX gold futures peaked at $3,557.1 per ounce, also at a historical high. COMEX gold futures have seen a nearly 35% increase year-to-date [4] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have risen in response to the international gold price surge, with brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao reporting increases in their gold product prices [4] - Concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence and ongoing uncertainties in the trade war have kept the US dollar weak, resulting in increased capital flow into the precious metals sector [4]

Core Insights - Gold prices surged by 2.3% last week, driven by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following the dismissal of Fed Governor Cook by President Trump, which may increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Bloomberg highlights that the decision regarding Cook could impact the future of the Federal Reserve, as concerns over its independence may weaken investor confidence in the U.S. [1] - The recent ruling by a U.S. appeals court declaring most tariffs illegal adds to market uncertainty, further enhancing gold's appeal [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts predict gold prices could break through $3,450 per ounce and potentially challenge the record high of $3,500 per ounce due to ongoing concerns about the Fed's independence and trade war uncertainties [2] - The current trend indicates that if buying momentum continues, gold prices may rise above $3,500 per ounce, with resistance levels at $3,550 and $3,600 [2] - Conversely, if gold prices fall below the June 16 high of $3,452 per ounce, they may decline towards the July 23 high of $3,438 per ounce, with a potential drop to $3,400 [2] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The daily chart for gold (XAUUSD) shows a bullish trend, with resistance levels at $3,500, $3,510, and $3,520, while support levels are at $3,479, $3,466, and $3,453 [3] - The momentum is strong, with a quantitative cycle exceeding three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [3] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include the Eurozone's August CPI year-on-year and month-on-month initial values, as well as the U.S. August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value and ISM Manufacturing PMI [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2510 fell 3.31%, and the far - month contracts fell between 2 - 4%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 8.7% week - on - week, and the spot indicators continued to fall, which is expected to drive down the futures prices. With shipping companies engaging in a "price war" and the global trade situation being uncertain due to potential tariff increases, and the weakening of the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, coupled with the weak demand expectation for the container shipping index (European line) and large fluctuations in futures prices, investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures盘面 - EC main contract closing price is 1285.000, down 44.0; EC sub - main contract closing price is 1571, down 62.90. The spread between EC2510 and EC2512 is - 286.00, up 18.50; the spread between EC2510 and EC2602 is - 115.00, up 9.80. The EC contract basis is 705.20, up 31.00. The main contract position of EC is 54,248, up 523 [1] Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) is 1990.20, down 189.97; SCFIS (US West Coast line) (weekly) is 1,041.38, down 64.91. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1415.36, down 44.83; container ship capacity is 1,227.97 (ten thousand TEUs), up 0.44. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) is 1174.87, down 18.47; CCFI (European line) (weekly) is 1,757.74, down 32.73. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) is 2046.00, down 5.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) is 1,874.00, down 56.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships is 14,606.00, up 204.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships is 26,364.00, down 1704.00 [1] Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports. In June, the global economic and trade friction index was 92, in the medium - high range. Affected by factors such as the US extending the suspension of reciprocal tariffs, the global economic and trade friction continued to ease, with the amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures decreasing by 14.7% year - on - year and 13.7% month - on - month. The New York Fed President Williams said it is appropriate to cut interest rates at the right time and is quite optimistic about the economic situation [1] Key Points to Watch - On August 29, important economic data will be released, including Japan's July unemployment rate, France's August CPI monthly rate preliminary value, France's second - quarter GDP annual rate final value, Germany's August seasonally adjusted unemployment rate, Germany's August CPI monthly rate preliminary value, the US July core PCE price index annual rate, the US July personal expenditure monthly rate, and the US August University of Michigan consumer confidence index final value [1]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell defended the Fed's crisis response during the pandemic and emphasized the importance of higher education in his speech at Princeton University [1][3] - Powell highlighted the Fed's actions during the COVID-19 pandemic, including a multi-trillion dollar asset purchase program to maintain low interest rates and prevent a severe global economic downturn [3][4] - The speech served as a response to the Trump administration's threats against Ivy League schools, with Powell calling higher education a "national asset" and urging graduates to uphold integrity [4] Group 2 - A recent Supreme Court ruling provided legal backing for the Fed's independence, stating that Fed board members are protected from arbitrary dismissal by the President, which supports Powell against ongoing attacks from Trump [4][6] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for the third consecutive month, with Powell indicating that uncertainties from the trade war are a key factor in decision-making [6] - Powell's position appears stable in the short term despite political pressures, as the Supreme Court ruling has increased the political cost of any potential dismissal, highlighting the delicate balance between monetary policy and political interference [6]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Wednesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European Line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2508 rose 1.32%, while the other contracts fell between -3% and -1%. The Russia-Ukraine conflict led to an escalation of geopolitical risks, and trade expectations turned cold [1]. - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1265.30, down 37.32 points from last week, a 2.9% week-on-week decline [1]. - The US adjusted its additional tariffs on China, revoking 91% of the additional tariffs on Chinese goods and implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff measure at 5 am on May 14 (US Eastern Time). Among them, 24% of the tariffs were suspended for 90 days, and the remaining 10% was retained. However, the uncertainty of subsequent tariffs remains, and there is a possibility of the trade war escalating again after August [1]. - Against the backdrop of the uncertainty of the trade war and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the demand expectation for the container shipping index (European Line) has turned cold, and the futures price has a large fluctuation range. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the EC main contract was 1677.20, and the closing price of the EC secondary main contract was 2121.1, down 164.00 [1]. - The spread between EC2506 and EC2508 was +93.30, and the spread between EC2506 and EC2510 was -443.90, down 32.30 [1]. - The position of the EC main contract was 25907 hands, unchanged from the previous day. The basis of the EC contract was -411.90, up 48.70 [1]. Spot Price - The SCFIS (European Line) (weekly) was 1265.30, down 37.32; the SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly) was 1455.31, up 134.62 [1]. - The SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1227.97, unchanged; the CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1104.88, down 1.50; the CCFI (European Line) (weekly) was 1430.35, down 14.89 [1]. - The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 1340.00, up 7.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1294.00, down 1.00 [1]. - The average charter price of Panamax ships was 10815.00, up 210.00; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 14395.00, up 522.00 [1]. Industry News - On May 19 local time, the Houthi armed forces announced a maritime blockade of the Israeli port of Haifa in response to the Israeli military's recent military operations in the Gaza Strip. Geopolitical risks have escalated [1]. - The central bank governor called for the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy to meet the effective financing needs of the real economy and support key areas such as technological innovation, consumption, and private small and micro enterprises [1]. - European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said that a rate cut in June "cannot be ruled out," but it is "too early" to make a decision without seeing the latest quarterly forecasts. Another member, Pierre Wunsch, said the eurozone economy may need "moderately supportive" interest rates [1]. - The third round of US-Japan tariff negotiations is scheduled for May 23. Japan is considering accepting a US proposal to lower tariff rates as a compromise, rather than a full repeal, to break the current negotiation deadlock [1]. Key Areas of Concern - The preliminary manufacturing PMI values for France, Germany, the eurozone, and the UK in May, as well as the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 17, and the preliminary manufacturing PMI value for the US in May are the key areas of concern [1].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report focuses on the impact of trade - war uncertainties on upstream prices and provides an overview of the mid - view events and the industry situation. It also mentions that the credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [1][3]. 3. Summary by Directory Mid - view Events Overview - **Production Industry**: The National Energy Administration issued a notice to promote the development of private economy in the energy field, supporting private enterprises to invest in energy infrastructure projects such as nuclear power, hydropower, oil and gas storage facilities, and LNG receiving stations [1]. - **Service Industry**: As of April 27, the average pre - sale price of domestic civil aviation tickets for the "May Day" holiday dropped slightly to about 864 yuan, up 9.75% compared to 2019 and down 7.09% compared to 2024, showing a stable trend [1]. Industry Overview - **Upstream**: International oil prices are continuously fluctuating due to tariffs; prices of copper, zinc, and nickel are oscillating; cement and building material prices are continuously falling; egg prices are rising [2]. - **Midstream**: The PTA operating rate has rebounded, the PX operating rate has recently declined, and the operating rates of polyester and urea are at this year's high. The asphalt operating rate has reached a three - year low [2]. - **Downstream**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities are the same as last year and at a three - year low. The number of international flights has increased, while the number of domestic flights has decreased compared to the same period [2]. Market Pricing The credit spreads of the pharmaceutical and chemical industries have recently declined slightly [3]. Data Charts The report includes various data charts on coal consumption, inventory, operating rates of different industries, traffic congestion indexes, movie box office, flight execution, and real - estate transaction data [4]. Industry Credit Spread Tracking It provides the credit spread data of multiple industries, including past data from last year, a quarter ago, a month ago, last week, and this week, as well as the quantile data [44]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking It shows the price indexes of multiple industries, including the frequency, unit, update time, current value, year - on - year change, and the trend in the past 5 days [45].