2026.01. 28 本文字数：1750，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 高雅 在国际贸易环境日趋复杂的背景下，欧盟近期采取的一系列措施进一步加剧了全球经贸摩擦。 根据中国贸促会于1月28日在北京举行的月度例行新闻发布会公布的数据，2025年11月全球经贸摩擦指数监 测范围内涵盖的20个国家（地区）中，欧盟、美国与韩国位列前三。当月，欧盟因频繁发起多项反补贴和反 倾销调查，其经贸摩擦措施涉及金额超越美国，取代了后者连续16个月占据的榜首位置。 这种摩擦态势在涉华经贸领域表现得尤为突出。贸促会数据显示，当月19个国家（地区）的涉华经贸摩擦指 数录得101，处于高位。其中，欧盟的涉华摩擦指数最高，半导体材料、稀土磁铁和液晶产品等关键行业的 指数居高。但当月涉华经贸摩擦措施涉及的绝对金额在同比与环比上分别下降12.4%和2.4%。 王文帅表示："欧盟的上述举动，均对中国企业构成不公平、歧视性待遇。中国企业长期在欧依法合规经 营，中国产品、服务普遍惠及欧盟各国人民，双方工商界合作不断深化，产业链供应链深度融合。中国工商 界坚决反对欧方对中国企业的歧视行为和带有明显单边主义与贸易保护主义色彩的错误做法，呼吁欧 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected decline of the US dollar index amidst global tariff storms is a significant development in the international foreign exchange market for 2025 [2] Group 1: Dollar Index Trends - The dollar index reached a year-low of 96.64 on September 16, 2025, marking a maximum decline of 10.9% for the year, before rebounding to around 99.44 by the end of November, resulting in an annual decline of 8.34% [2] - Despite a recent rebound, market institutions remain bearish on the dollar, citing factors such as interest rate expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in the international monetary system [3] Group 2: Impact of Tariff Policies - Trump's return to the White House has led to policies that have weakened the credibility of the dollar, including the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" aimed at reducing the US trade deficit, which undermines the capital flow basis of dollar credibility [4] - The "reciprocal tariffs" not only target competitors but also traditional allies, damaging political relationships and further eroding the dollar's credibility [4] - The expansion of fiscal deficits under Trump's administration threatens the dollar's safe-haven status, as the credibility of US Treasury securities relies heavily on fiscal discipline and debt repayment capacity [5] Group 3: Global Monetary System Dynamics - The current international monetary system is experiencing challenges, with the dollar's dominance facing unprecedented threats due to the weakening of the Federal Reserve's independence and the emergence of alternative cross-border payment systems [5] - Despite the decline in dollar reserves, there are no immediate alternatives in the market, suggesting that the dollar may not have much further to fall [6] - The diversification of international reserve assets has primarily benefited gold, which saw a 6.24 percentage point increase in reserve share, while the dollar's share declined by 9.77 percentage points from early 2022 to mid-2025 [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for a multi-polar international monetary system may limit the impact on the dollar's exchange rate, as major commodity transactions are still predominantly priced in dollars [7] - The correlation between the dollar index and gold prices has shifted, with gold prices rising significantly, indicating a complex relationship that may provide support for the dollar [8] - Concerns about the Federal Reserve becoming a political tool under Trump's influence could lead to unexpected dollar index stabilization or strengthening in 2026 [9][12] Group 5: Trade Dynamics and Global Economic Relations - The global trade landscape is dynamic, with potential shifts in the main actors of trade disputes, which could lead to a re-evaluation of the dollar's role as a safe-haven asset [14] - The tariffs imposed by Trump are seen as a source of increased unilateralism and protectionism, which could disrupt global supply chains and hinder international economic circulation [13] - The potential for trade agreements to include restrictive clauses may provoke new trade disputes among nations, further complicating the global economic environment [14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the unexpected decline of the US dollar index in 2025, despite predictions of its strength due to global trade tensions and monetary policy shifts. It suggests that the dollar index may not be as weak as anticipated in 2026, as various negative factors may have already been priced in [2][14]. Group 1: Dollar Index Performance - The dollar index experienced a significant decline in 2025, reaching a year-low closing price of 96.64 on September 16, with a maximum drop of 10.9% for the year [2]. - By the end of November 2025, the dollar index rebounded to around 99.44, reducing the annual decline to 8.34% [2]. - Despite recent rebounds, market institutions remain bearish on the dollar, citing interest rate expectations, geopolitical risks, and changes in the international monetary system as ongoing pressures [3]. Group 2: Impact of US Policies - The return of Trump to the White House has led to policies that have weakened the credibility of the dollar, including the imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" aimed at reducing the trade deficit [4]. - Trump's policies have undermined the political and monetary foundations of dollar credibility, including interference with the independence of the Federal Reserve [4][5]. - The fiscal discipline of the US has been compromised, with increasing fiscal deficits potentially damaging the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The article warns that while the dollar may face depreciation, there is a possibility of stabilization or even strengthening in 2026, particularly if global economic tensions shift away from the US [3][13]. - The dynamics of the international monetary system are evolving, with gold emerging as a significant reserve asset, while the dollar's share in global reserves has declined [6][7]. - The potential for a multi-polar currency system may not benefit non-dollar currencies significantly, as the dollar remains the primary currency for major commodity transactions [7]. Group 4: Federal Reserve's Role - Concerns exist regarding the Federal Reserve's independence under potential political pressures, especially with the upcoming change in leadership in 2026 [8][9]. - The Fed's ability to maintain its credibility may be tested if economic conditions lead to conflicting pressures on interest rates [8][10]. - The internal dynamics of the Fed may shift towards a more divided voting structure, increasing market volatility and uncertainty regarding future monetary policy [11]. Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - The article highlights the potential for global trade tensions to shift, with the US's unilateral trade policies impacting international supply chains and economic stability [12][13]. - The possibility of other countries becoming the main actors in global trade disputes could lead to a renewed role for the dollar as a safe-haven asset [13]. - The evolving landscape of global trade and economic relations necessitates a nuanced understanding of currency movements and their implications for investment strategies [14].

·11月27日，国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任李超在新闻发布会上表示，为推动具身智能产业健康规 范发展，国家发展改革委将从三方面进行合理引导。一是加速构建行业标准与评价体系，建立健全具身 智能行业准入和退出机制，营造公平竞争的市场环境，保障产业有序发展；二是加快关键核心技术攻 关，支持企业、高校、科研院所等围绕"大小脑"模型协同、云侧与端侧算力适配、仿真与真机数据融合 等技术进行攻关，解决产业卡点堵点问题；三是推动训练与中试平台等基础设施建设，促进全国范围内 具身智能技术、产业资源整合和开放共享，加速具身智能体在真实场景中落地应用。 ·27日下午，商务部召开例行新闻发布会。新闻发言人表示，此前商务部已就中美吉隆坡经贸磋商联合 安排发布了相关消息，介绍了磋商达成的主要成果、共识，其中包括农产品贸易，中方愿继续与美方团 队保持密切沟通，共同做好有关经贸磋商成果的落实工作。 【重点关注】 ·国家发展改革委：将健全具身智能准入和退出机制，营造公平竞争的市场环境 ·商务部：将推进汽车流通消费改革试点，全链条扩大汽车消费 ·中国贸促会：9月份全球经贸摩擦指数持续处于高位 ·国家统计局：1—10月份全国规模以上工业企业利润 ...

Core Insights - The global trade friction index for September remains high at 106, with a year-on-year increase of 7.9% in the monetary value of trade friction measures, but a month-on-month decrease of 15.6% [1] Country-Specific Summary - Among the 20 monitored countries and regions, India, the United States, and Russia have the highest global trade friction indices, with the U.S. maintaining the top position for 15 consecutive months in terms of monetary value involved in trade friction measures [1] Industry-Specific Summary - The trade friction measures are primarily concentrated in the electronics, transportation equipment, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and chemical industries, with the electronics sector having the highest trade friction index [1] - The trade remedy measures index ranks first among five sub-index measures, indicating that traditional trade remedy investigations are being used by countries to protect domestic industries and enhance competitiveness [1] China-Specific Summary - The trade friction index concerning China from 19 countries and regions stands at 115, indicating a high level of trade friction. India has the highest trade friction index related to China, particularly in the semiconductor, battery, and copper cable industries [1] - The monetary value of trade friction measures involving China from these 19 countries decreased by 36.6% year-on-year but increased by 9.6% month-on-month [1]

智通财经APP获悉，11月27日，中国贸促会举行11月例行新闻发布会，贸促会新闻发言人杨帆介绍相关 情况并回答媒体提问。杨帆表示，应美国商会邀请，中国贸促会将于12月初组织中国企业家代表团访问 美国。随团企业涉及领域广泛，包括农业食品、机械电子、金融服务、跨境贸易、物流运输、生物医药 及潮流文化等多个领域。代表团将与美政商各界广泛交流，举办多场中美工商界交流活动，积极向美各 界介绍中国坚持高质量发展和高水平对外开放新举措。 原文如下： 中国贸促会召开11月例行新闻发布会 杨帆: 上午好！欢迎参加中国贸促会11月例行新闻发布会。我是中国贸促会新闻发言人杨帆。 我首先向大家通报3条信息。 第一条信息，发布9月全球经贸摩擦指数。 从综合指数看，9月全球经贸摩擦指数为106，持续处于高位。全球经贸摩擦措施涉及金额同比增长 7.9%，环比下降15.6%。 从行业指数看，在监测范围内13个主要行业中，经贸摩擦措施的冲突点聚焦于电子、运输设备、医药、 机械设备和化工行业，其中电子行业经贸摩擦指数居首。 从分项指数看，在监测范围内的20个国家(地区)共发布30项进出口关税措施，发起67起贸易救济调查， 向WTO提交技术性贸易 ...

Group 1 - The global trade friction index for August remains high at 100, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 15.2% in the amount involved in trade friction measures [1] - The United States, Brazil, and Japan have the highest trade friction indices among 20 monitored countries, with the U.S. maintaining the top position for 14 consecutive months [1] - The electronics industry has the highest trade friction index among 13 major industries, indicating significant conflict points in sectors such as electronics, transportation equipment, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and light industry [1] Group 2 - The number of U.S. exhibitors at the Chain Expo has increased by 15% compared to the previous year, continuing to lead in the number of foreign exhibitors [4] - Over 3,500 Chinese companies have participated in more than 50 professional exhibitions in the U.S. from January to October, covering various sectors including electronics, textiles, and pharmaceuticals [5] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) has facilitated over 100 activities under the China-U.S. Enterprise Cooperation Project, benefiting nearly 3,000 companies [5] Group 3 - In the first three quarters of this year, China's total import and export value with ASEAN reached 5.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, maintaining ASEAN as China's largest trading partner [6] - The CCPIT has organized multiple delegations to ASEAN countries for trade negotiations, with significant participation in various forums and summits [6][7] - The number of RCEP certificates issued and the corresponding visa amounts have increased by 25.57% and 24.01% respectively, enhancing trade dynamics between China and RCEP member countries [7]

Core Insights - The latest global trade friction index released by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade indicates that the index remains at a high level as of August 2023, with a composite index value of 100 [1] Summary by Category Global Trade Friction Index - The global trade friction index for August 2023 is reported at 100, indicating sustained high levels of trade friction [1] - The monetary value of global trade friction measures has decreased by 4.3% year-on-year and 15.2% month-on-month, yet remains at elevated levels [1] Country-Specific Insights - Among the 20 monitored countries and regions, the United States, Brazil, and Japan have the highest global trade friction indices [1] - The United States has maintained the highest level of trade friction measures for 14 consecutive months [1] Industry-Specific Insights - Trade friction measures are concentrated in five main industries: electronics, transportation equipment, pharmaceuticals, machinery, and light industry, with the electronics sector having the highest trade friction index [1] - The import and export tariff measures index ranks first among five sub-index measures, highlighting its role as a primary tool for countries to protect domestic industries and adjust industrial structures [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The precious metal market maintains an oscillating upward trend, with the price movements of gold and silver showing phased differentiation. Driven by the sentiment of repairing the gold - silver ratio, the performance of silver is significantly stronger than that of gold. The US initial jobless claims data is better than expected, indicating the resilience of the labor market. The annualized GDP growth rate in the second quarter was revised up from 3.3% to 3.8%, reaching a two - year high. The core PCE year - on - year rose to 2.6%, slightly higher than expected, showing that inflation remains sticky. The US dollar index rebounded for two consecutive days, stabilizing above the 98 mark, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose to 4.2%. The short - term rebound of the US dollar may suppress the precious metal market. There are differences within the Fed on the future monetary policy path. The ETFs of gold and silver in the external market recorded large net inflows, and the market bullish sentiment remains high. It is recommended to conduct interval band trading and pay attention to short - term correction risks [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 866.52 yuan/gram, with a week - on - week increase of 10.46; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 10939 yuan/kilogram, with a week - on - week increase of 307. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 263220 lots, a decrease of 1085; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 508967 lots, a decrease of 35265. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract are 167719 lots, an increase of 2252; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract are 98895 lots, a decrease of 14959 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 68628 kilograms, an increase of 2802; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1189648 kilograms, an increase of 31382. The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 857.03 yuan/gram, an increase of 4.04; the spot price of silver is 10770 yuan/kilogram, an increase of 275. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 9.49 yuan/gram, a decrease of - 6.42; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 169 yuan/kilogram, a decrease of - 32 [3] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 1005.72 tons, an increase of 8.87; the silver ETF holdings are 15361.84 tons, a decrease of 28.23. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 266749 contracts, an increase of 339; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CTFC are 52276 contracts, an increase of 738. The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.84; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, a decrease of 21.4. The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1313.01 tons, an increase of 54.83; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1195 million ounces, a decrease of 47.4 [3] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.38%, a decrease of 0.71; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.45%, a decrease of 0.1. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.59%, a decrease of 0.94; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.58%, a decrease of 0.95 [3] 3.5 Industry News - Trump will meet with the four leaders of Congress on Monday due to the approaching risk of the US government shutdown. Goldman Sachs analysts said that the risk of the US economy re - accelerating is rising. Affected by the US tariff policy adjustment, the global economic and trade frictions have heated up again, and the global economic and trade friction index in July was 110, at a high level. The amount involved in global economic and trade friction measures increased by 6.6% year - on - year and 27.6% month - on - month, with the US having the largest amount involved [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum market shows a complex situation with different trends in various segments including futures, spot, upstream, and downstream markets. Overall, the market is influenced by factors such as policy, supply - demand balance, and international economic data. Different types of aluminum products (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and casting aluminum alloy) have their own supply - demand characteristics, and the report suggests light - position oscillatory trading in all cases while controlling risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20,730 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract price difference was 20 yuan, up 20 yuan; the main contract position was 203,858 lots, down 8,862 lots; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,649 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 517,700 tons, up 1,775 tons; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.83, up 0.04 [2]. - **Alumina Futures**: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,904 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract price difference was - 37 yuan, down 4 yuan; the main contract position was 292,517 lots, down 13,932 lots [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy Futures**: The closing price of the casting aluminum alloy main contract was 20,270 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract price difference was - 90 yuan, down 65 yuan; the main contract position was 11,805 lots, down 28 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum Spot**: The price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,690 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 20,830 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 40 yuan, down 65 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum premium/discount was - 30 yuan, down 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 4.7 dollars/ton, down 2.6 dollars [2]. - **Alumina Spot**: The alumina spot price was 2,895 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was - 9 yuan, down 8 yuan [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy Spot**: The basis of casting aluminum alloy was 630 yuan, down 80 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Alumina**: The monthly production was 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the national monthly opening rate was 82.93%, down 1.09 percentage points; the monthly demand (electrolytic aluminum part) was 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons; the monthly supply - demand balance was 28.73 million tons, up 12.41 million tons; the export volume was 18 million tons, down 5 million tons; the import volume was 9.44 million tons, down 3.16 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Scrap**: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan was 16,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price in Shandong was 16,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's import volume was 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons; the export volume was 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The monthly import volume was 217,260.71 tons, down 30,322.61 tons; the export volume was 25,604.34 tons, down 15,383.37 tons; the total production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the opening rate was 98.11%, up 0.33 percentage points; the social inventory was 56.70 million tons, down 3.10 million tons [2]. - **Aluminum Products**: The monthly output was 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of un - forged aluminum and aluminum products was 53 million tons, down 1 million tons [2]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Ingot**: The monthly output was 63.59 million tons, up 1.27 million tons; the total built - up production capacity was 126 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Automobile**: The monthly output was 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - **Real Estate**: The national real estate prosperity index was 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 6.24%, down 0.22 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 6.05%, unchanged; the call - put ratio was 1.17, down 0.0227; the implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money option was slightly decreased [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Eight departments issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Non - Ferrous Metal Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming for an average annual growth of about 5% in the added value of the non - ferrous metal industry and about 1.5% in the output of ten non - ferrous metals from 2025 to 2026 [2]. - In July, affected by US tariff policies, the global economic and trade friction index reached 110, with the US, EU, and Brazil ranking in the top three [2]. - The US August core PCE price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. Real consumer spending increased for the third consecutive month [2]. - From January to August, the total profit of Chinese industrial enterprises above designated size was 46929.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. In August, the profit increased by 20.4% year - on - year [2]. 3.8 Views on Different Aluminum Products - **Alumina**: The main contract shows an oscillatory trend with decreasing positions, and the basis weakens. The supply is expected to remain stable, and the demand will increase slightly. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The main contract oscillates weakly with decreasing positions, and the basis weakens. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will be boosted. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The main contract oscillates weakly with decreasing positions, and the basis weakens. The supply growth will slow down, and the demand will increase. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading [2].