智通财经12月12日讯（编辑 潇湘）随着美联储本周宣布的每月购买400亿美元国库券的计划，超出业内 此前预期，华尔街各大银行的分析师们周四纷纷紧急修正了他们对2026年国库券供应的预测，并预计美 联储此举将推动借贷成本走低。 美联储已表示，将于周五启动这项名为"准备金管理购买" (RMP)的购债计划，旨在通过重建金融体系准 备金储备来降低短期利率。除了上述RMP操作外，美联储还将在12月将到期的机构债再投资购买约144 亿美元的国库券，以进一步加强对融资市场的支持。 策略师们指出，这些措施将缓解美联储缩减资产规模数月来持续累积的市场压力。他们预计，购债操作 将为掉期利差和SOFR-联邦基金利率基差交易提供助力。 周三在美联储宣布购债决定后，短期利率期货市场交易量迅速激增，两年期掉期利差扩大至4月以来最 高水平，表明短期融资市场压力有所缓解。 不过，CIBC策略师指出，这些措施不会完全消除波动性，因为美联储12月的购买规模可能难以超过年 末通常激增的隔夜资金需求——届时银行为巩固资产负债表会限制回购市场活动。 值得一提的是，美联储大量购买短期国库券的行动，自然也将影响到未来几个月乃至明年的美国债券市 场运转—— ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook emphasized that inflation pressures remain severe, with expectations that inflation rates will stay above the 2% policy target for the next 2 to 3 years, advocating for a restrictive monetary policy to maintain the Fed's credibility [1] Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - Cook highlighted the challenges faced by the Fed in balancing its dual mandate of inflation and employment, describing the current monetary policy environment as difficult [1] - She noted that while recent economic performance seems unaffected by Fed policies, service inflation is concerning, and upcoming tariffs may further elevate inflation rates early next year [1] - Cook made a seemingly contradictory assessment of the current policy stance, stating that monetary policy is nearly non-restrictive, yet there is a need to maintain some degree of tightening to alleviate inflation pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Response - Cook indicated that the recent rise in neutral interest rates suggests that even if nominal rates remain unchanged, the actual policy stance could become more accommodative [1] - Regarding the dollar's performance, she reassured that the recent weakening of the dollar is not alarming, as it is a correction from an extremely strong position, bringing it closer to its theoretical fair value [1] Group 3: Employment and Technological Impact - On the employment front, Cook described the current job market as seemingly balanced but still concerning, with the unemployment rate near its highest level and a softening job market posing challenges for the Fed's employment mandate [2] - She reiterated the importance of the Fed's independence in achieving employment and inflation goals, asserting that political factors do not influence monetary policy decisions [2] - Cook expressed caution regarding the impact of emerging technologies, stating it is premature to assess the effects of artificial intelligence, suggesting that time will reveal whether valuations of AI companies are justified [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [2] - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the decision for a rate cut in December is not guaranteed and may be influenced by uncertainties such as a potential government shutdown [6][8] - Traders have reduced their bets on a December rate cut, with the probability now at 65%, down from 90% prior to the meeting [7] Group 2 - Powell noted that a government shutdown could impact economic activity and that many American consumers remain dissatisfied with inflation [8] - The Fed's FOMC statement announced the end of balance sheet reduction on December 1, with Powell stating that market pressures necessitate immediate adjustments to balance sheet operations [9] - Following Powell's comments, U.S. stock markets experienced a downturn, with notable movements in tech stocks such as Nvidia and Apple, while Meta's stock fell over 8% after disappointing earnings [12] Group 3 - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 3.59%, and the dollar index rose, while onshore RMB depreciated against the dollar [13] - Bitcoin saw a decline, with approximately 130,000 traders liquidated in the past 24 hours, totaling around $558 million in liquidations [14][15] - Emerging markets are becoming more attractive as the Fed's rate cuts are expected to lower global financing costs and improve market conditions, potentially driving capital flows into these markets [16]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to view interest rates as the primary tool in its policy toolbox, while also acknowledging the potential role of other instruments like targeted loans and balance sheet operations when faced with lower bound constraints [1] Group 1 - Interest rates remain the default policy lever for the ECB [1] - Other tools, such as targeted loans and balance sheet operations, can be effective when interest rates hit their lower limits [1]