Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reverted to its previous state before late October, but the upward potential remains constrained. The only industry showing short-term upward movement is optical connectivity, while concerns about the decline in capital expenditure among leading US tech companies in 2026 persist, impacting the AI industry chain [2][3]. Group 1: Market Environment and Trends - Since late November, the macro environment for the A-share market has "reverted," reflecting the characteristics seen before late October. However, the upward space remains limited, with only optical connectivity showing potential for upward breakthroughs [2][3]. - The expectation for stable growth has been adjusted downward, and the anticipated return of the Federal Reserve's easing policies has led to a resurgence in optical connectivity, while other tech growth sectors are experiencing a rebound [2][3]. - The market is currently in a high-level oscillation phase, with the structural characteristics reverting to those observed before late October [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Policy Insights - The core idea of the 2025 Central Economic Work Conference is to "practice internal skills to cope with external challenges," with a focus on maintaining policy momentum in 2024 and potential marginal improvements in 2026 [5][6]. - Key policy points include addressing issues related to development and transformation, emphasizing quality and efficiency, stimulating domestic demand, and promoting technological innovation in key regions [6][7]. - The market anticipates that if economic results improve in the first half of 2026, additional efforts to stabilize growth in the second half are likely [5][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Opportunities - The medium-term outlook remains a "two-stage bull market," with the first stage (tech structural bull) already at a high level, and the market currently in a quarterly high-level oscillation phase [7][8]. - The first half of 2026 is expected to favor cyclical and value styles, while the second half may see a comprehensive bull market driven by fundamental improvements and technological trends [7][8]. - Spring market trends are expected to focus on small-scale opportunities, particularly in optical connectivity and other tech sectors, with potential for new high-level oscillation phases [8].

算力的最强分支，光连接和PCB已经形成VCP结构，光连接已经突破。 平均股价指数最近两周的表现基本可以确定一个状况：回撤空间下限探明。不过，调整结构是否结束，还不好说，箱体继续向右侧扩展的可能性仍然很大 的，时间换空间的方式接近200日成交量加权均线。成交量昨天已经突破21日均量，初步满足动量反转条件，但价格箱体未必一下子就能突破。 靠小盘的垃圾股炒作冲关是不可能的，还得看硬科技、创新药这些东西，以及保险和银行的水平支撑。 券商昨天的表现太软弱，估计还是难成大器，虽然是散户的心头好，但机构基本都不鸟。 如果市场指数继续向上演绎，带领冲关的应该还是算力设备，然后是电力设备。电力设备回调比算力晚，可能还不够充分。 但指数会持续上攻吗？ ...

Group 1 - The current market state indicates a potential top formation, with momentum showing a clear divergence at the daily level, which should be taken seriously [2] - The recent market rally has been supported by computing power and hard technology in electricity, raising questions about whether these sectors can continue to drive growth [2] - The innovation drug sector has shown movement, while the lithium battery sector has experienced a pullback, indicating mixed performance across sectors [2] Group 2 - The optical connection sector, represented by leading company Xinyiseng, is showing signs of fatigue after a top formation and daily level momentum divergence [2] - The PCB sector appears to be performing better, but companies like Shengyi Electronics and Dingtai Technology are showing signs of excessive volume at peaks, suggesting that momentum may be exhausted [3] - The market is likely transitioning away from a unilateral upward trend, emphasizing the need for careful stock selection and sensitivity to reducing positions [5]

Group 1: Defense Industry - The report highlights the signing of a defense agreement between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, with potential participation from UAE and Qatar, indicating a shift towards seeking security guarantees from Chinese weapon systems, which is expected to significantly enhance Pakistan's weapon procurement capabilities [2] - The report anticipates a rebound in the military industry due to increased funding from the wealthiest Middle Eastern nations supporting Pakistan's military procurement [2] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - Huawei's recent announcements at the 2025 Huawei Connect Conference detail a roadmap for the Ascend chip series, with the Ascend 950PR expected in Q1 2026 and the Ascend 960 in Q4 2027, indicating a trend of increasing chip usage in computing clusters [3] - The report suggests that the growth in chip usage will lead to a significant increase in demand for high-speed optical interconnects and high-end PCB, thus improving the outlook for the optical connection, PCB, and high-end chip manufacturing supply chains [3] Group 3: Energy Storage Industry - The report discusses insights from the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference, where the focus is on long-duration energy storage as a key development direction as the power system transitions to a stage where renewable energy sources exceed 50% of total generation [6] - Technologies such as vanadium flow batteries, compressed air storage, and hydrogen storage are expected to gain traction due to their longer discharge times and lower capacity costs, indicating a sustained high demand in the energy storage sector [6] Group 4: Home Appliance Industry - The report notes that Boss Electric's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 4.608 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 2.58%, with net profit dropping by 6.28%, reflecting challenges in the kitchen appliance sector linked to the real estate market [8] - The report highlights a significant drop in new residential sales and a contraction in the market for high-end renovation projects, which is expected to continue impacting the kitchen appliance industry negatively [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the strong performance of the market, particularly the rebound of the ChiNext and STAR Market indices, indicating a robust bull market that is unusual compared to previous trends [1]. Market Performance - The average stock price index briefly fell below the TR holding line but showed a strong recovery in the afternoon, suggesting a significant rebound [1]. - The afternoon rebound mirrored the previous day's decline, indicating a notable recovery strength [1]. Technical Analysis - The 200-day moving average serves as a critical boundary, with the index touching this level for the third time since early June, leading to increased volatility and profit-taking [2]. - The market is currently experiencing a natural increase in divergence due to the rise in profit-taking [2]. Leading Sectors - The leading sectors include optical connections, semiconductors, PCB, and rare earths, highlighting the importance of focusing on main lines during a bull market [4]. - The article warns against deviating from main lines in stock selection, emphasizing the need for a strong belief in investment models to maintain a positive mindset [4]. Investment Models - The article discusses the significance of having a model belief system in stock selection, which helps narrow down choices and maintain confidence [4]. - It mentions that the process of developing a model belief is lengthy and involves reflection and perseverance [4]. Stock Signals - New signals have emerged for stocks such as Yingwei and Dongxin, indicating potential investment opportunities [10]. - The article notes that the model used for stock selection has a limited capacity, averaging about one stock per day over the past two months, but has shown a good success rate [12].