Group 1: Trade Performance - In the first half of the year, China's total goods trade value reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with exports at 13 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 8.79 trillion yuan (down 2.7%) [1] - In June, the trade scale reached 3.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan (up 7.2%) and imports at 1.51 trillion yuan (up 2.3%) [1] Group 2: Shipping Market Response - The strong resilience and vitality of China's foreign trade have translated into increased demand in the shipping market, leading to significant gains in the Hong Kong shipping and port sectors since April [1] - Notable stock price increases from April lows to recent highs include China COSCO Shipping (up 35.4%), Seaspan Corporation (up 82.9%), and Yang Ming Marine Transport (up 233%) [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Tariff Impact - In June, the shipping sector experienced a period of consolidation, with tariff policy changes significantly affecting market sentiment [2] - The announcement of new tariffs by Trump on products from over 20 countries raised doubts about the sustainability of shipping demand, leading to declines in several shipping stocks [2] Group 4: Capital Flows and Stock Performance - Despite tariff uncertainties, there was a notable increase in southbound capital supporting the shipping sector, with significant increases in holdings of China COSCO Shipping and China COSCO Energy by southbound funds [3][4] - As of July 11, the holdings of China COSCO Shipping increased from 8.86 billion shares (29.81%) to 9.99 billion shares (34.68%) [4] Group 5: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The shipping sector's outlook remains positive, with the Shanghai International Shipping Research Center reporting a shipping prosperity index of 120.81 points for Q2 2025, indicating a favorable market environment [13] - The global economic recovery and increasing international trade volumes are expected to further boost demand for shipping services, particularly with China's trade with Belt and Road countries reaching 11.29 trillion yuan, a 4.7% increase [14][15] Group 6: Structural Changes and Innovations - The shipping industry is actively optimizing its structure, with major companies focusing on matching capacity with demand to avoid oversupply [15] - Environmental regulations and technological advancements are driving the industry towards greener practices and digital transformation, enhancing operational efficiency and long-term competitiveness [15][16]

Core Insights - The Shanghai International Shipping Research Center released the shipping prosperity report for Q2 2025, indicating a rise in the shipping prosperity index to 120.81 points, an increase of 14.77 points from the previous quarter, placing it in a relatively prosperous range [1] - The shipping confidence index also increased to 123.22 points, up by 12.89 points from the last quarter, moving from a relatively prosperous range to a more prosperous range [1] Industry Overview - The overall heat of the shipping industry has increased compared to the previous quarter [1] - Looking ahead to Q3 2025, the director of the shipping prosperity index compilation office, Zhou Dequan, noted that confidence indices for most shipping sectors are expected to decline, with the exception of dry bulk shipping companies, which will see an increase in their confidence index [1] - Container shipping companies are projected to experience the largest decline in confidence, with a decrease of 10 points, placing them back into a relatively prosperous range [1]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a weekly report on the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures, covering the period up to July 4, 2025 [2] - The author of the report is Liao Hongbin, with a futures investment consulting license number Z0020723 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) mainly fluctuated this week. The main contract EC2508 rose 3.01%, while the far - month contracts had returns ranging from - 1% to - 2%. The spot price index continued to improve, supporting the futures price of the main contract [6][38] - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 2123.24, up 186.1 points from last week, a 9.6% increase [6][38] - In the US, the June non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000, far exceeding the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. The market abandoned the bet on a Fed rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to about 80%. It is currently expected that the Fed will start cutting rates in October and cut rates by 51 basis points by the end of the year [6][38] - The eurozone economy showed signs of bottoming out, but the manufacturing industry was still under pressure. The container capacity of leading shipping companies maintained a high - growth trend, and the global capacity supply continued to rise. Excess capacity was a major pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of the shipping industry's prosperity in 2025. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures price to rise in the short term [6][38] - Whether the trade war will improve as expected in the long term remains to be observed. July is an important window period for tariff renegotiation. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, tariff, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][38] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures rose slightly this week. The EC2508 contract's trading volume and open interest both increased [12][15] - The table shows the week - on - week changes, closing prices, etc. of different futures contracts and the spot index [9] 2. News Review and Analysis - The Ministry of Commerce's response to the report of the US President's potential visit to China with a business delegation was neutral in impact [18] - The US Congress passing the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill was considered a bearish factor [18] - Statements from the US Treasury Secretary and the US President's trade - related announcements were generally considered to have a neutral impact [18] - The EU - US trade agreement negotiation was in the final stage, and the overall impact was considered neutral [18] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts declined this week, and the spread converged [23] - The export container freight rate index fluctuated upward this week [26] - Container capacity continued to rise. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [29] - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded slightly this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar mainly fluctuated [32] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) mainly fluctuated this week. The main contract EC2508 rose 3.01%, and far - month contracts had negative returns. The spot price index improvement supported the main contract's futures price [38] - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index increased by 9.6% week - on - week [38] - The US economic data affected the market's expectations for the Fed's rate cuts [38] - The eurozone economy showed signs of bottoming out, but the manufacturing industry was under pressure. Excess capacity limited the shipping industry's recovery, while the spot price recovery may drive short - term futures price increases [38] - Investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data during the important tariff negotiation window period in July [38]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2508 dropped 8.23%, and the far - month contracts fell between 3 - 6%. The cease - fire confirmed by Iran reduced the possibility of blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and the negative impact of tariffs remained unimproved, weakening the support for futures prices. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1937.14, up 239.51 points from last week, a 14.1% month - on - month increase. The US Q1 GDP annualized quarterly rate was revised down to - 0.5%, and the economic momentum continued to decline. The eurozone economy showed signs of bottoming out, but the manufacturing industry was still under pressure. In the long - term, the euro may continue to weaken. The container capacity of leading shipping companies maintained a high - growth trend, and the global capacity supply continued to rise. With the demand not significantly improved, over - capacity remained a huge pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of the shipping boom in 2025. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators may drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. The long - term improvement of the trade war needs further observation, and investors are advised to be cautious [6][7][36][37]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Market Review - Futures contract prices: EC2506 fell 0.27% (- 5.10), EC2508 fell 8.23% (- 161.90), EC2510 fell 4.17% (- 57.70), EC2512 fell 4.41% (- 69.00), EC2602 fell 6.22% (- 87.30), EC2604 fell 3.56% (- 43.20). The SCFIS index rose 14.1% (239.51) to 1937.14 [10]. - The price of the main contract of the container shipping index (European line) futures decreased this week, and the trading volume and open interest of the EC2508 contract both declined [12][14]. 2. News Review and Analysis - Various news and their impacts: China's stance on economic globalization is neutral; the US - Iran nuclear negotiation news is bullish; Morgan Stanley's Fed rate - cut prediction is neutral; EU's consideration of tariff reduction on US imports is neutral; Trump's statements about India and the defense budget are neutral [19]. 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts declined, and the spread converged. The export container freight rate index fluctuated. Container capacity continued to rise. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships increased slightly. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated [22][23][27][30]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, emphasizing the decline of futures prices, the impact of cease - fire and tariffs, the economic situation in the US and the eurozone, the supply - demand situation of shipping capacity, and suggestions for investors [36][37].