1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamental market of crude oil is healthy. With low inventories in Cushing, combined with hurricane expectations and Russia - related events, crude oil has upward momentum. However, the seasonal demand decline in mid - August will limit its upside. A short - term target price of WTI $70.4/barrel is given, and it is recommended to go long at low prices and take profits [2]. - For methanol, after the emotional boost fades, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see or use it as a short - position allocation within the sector [2]. - For urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom but is also restricted by high supply at the top. It is advisable to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low prices [4]. - For rubber, the price is likely to rise rather than fall in the second half of the year. A long - term bullish strategy is recommended for the medium - term, while a neutral and quick - in - quick - out strategy is suggested for the short - term [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is mainly focused on the transition from de - stocking to re - stocking. The price will be under pressure in the future [13]. - For benzene styrene, the BZN spread is expected to recover, and the price is likely to fluctuate following the cost side [16]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to oscillate downward in July [18]. - For polypropylene, the price is expected to be bearish in July under the background of weak supply and demand [19]. - For PX, the inventory is expected to continue to decline in the third quarter, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following the trend of crude oil [23]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory, and it is recommended to go long at low prices following PX [24]. - For ethylene glycol, the short - term valuation has upward momentum, but the fundamentals will turn weak in the future [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: On July 22, 2025, WTI主力原油期货 fell $0.23, or 0.34%, to $67.07; Brent主力原油期货 fell $0.14, or 0.20%, to $69.09; INE主力原油期货 rose 6.10 yuan, or 1.15%, to 538.1 yuan. Chinese weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.75 million barrels to 206.30 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.14 million barrels to 90.97 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory decreased by 0.81 million barrels to 101.77 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 0.32 million barrels to 192.74 million barrels [1]. Chemicals Methanol - On July 21, the 09 contract rose 46 yuan/ton to 2411 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 13 yuan/ton with a basis of - 13. The upstream operating rate continued to decline, and overseas device operating rates returned to medium - high levels. The overall demand performance was weak, and the spot valuation was still high [2]. Urea - On July 21, the 09 contract rose 67 yuan/ton to 1812 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 20 yuan/ton with a basis of + 8. The domestic operating rate declined slightly, and the demand from compound fertilizers and exports provided support [4]. Rubber - On July 22, NR and RU continued to rise strongly. The overall sentiment in the commodity market was bullish. The bullish view for natural rubber RU was based on potential production cuts in Southeast Asia, seasonal price increases in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The bearish view was due to uncertain macro - expectations, seasonal demand slumps, and potential under - expected production cuts [8][15]. PVC - On July 22, the PVC09 contract rose 181 yuan to 5118 yuan. The overall operating rate rose, but the downstream operating rate declined. The factory inventory decreased, while the social inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak, and the price would face pressure [13]. Benzene Styrene - The spot and futures prices rose, and the basis weakened. The cost - end pure benzene operating rate increased, and the supply was abundant. The port inventory increased significantly, and the demand - end three - S overall operating rate rose. The price was expected to fluctuate following the cost side [16]. Polyolefins - **Polyethylene**: The futures price rose. The EU's sanctions on Russia affected the market. The trade - merchant inventory was high, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to oscillate downward in July [18]. - **Polypropylene**: The futures price rose. The Shandong refinery profit rebounded, and the supply was expected to increase. The downstream operating rate declined seasonally, and the price was expected to be bearish in July [19]. Polyester - **PX**: On July 22, the PX09 contract rose 52 yuan to 6862 yuan. The Chinese and Asian operating rates were 81.1% and 73.6% respectively. The inventory was low, and the valuation was at a neutral level. It was recommended to go long at low prices following crude oil [21][23]. - **PTA**: On July 22, the PTA09 contract rose 36 yuan to 4780 yuan. The operating rate remained unchanged, and the downstream operating rate declined. The supply was expected to accumulate inventory, and it was recommended to go long at low prices following PX [24]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: On July 22, the EG09 contract rose 34 yuan to 4410 yuan. The supply - end operating rate declined, and the downstream operating rate also declined. The port inventory decreased. The short - term valuation had upward momentum, but the fundamentals would turn weak [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market are still uncertain. Although OPEC has increased production slightly more than expected, the current fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. The overall crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - For methanol, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of both supply and demand weakening. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that the price will not have a large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - Regarding urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also restricted by high supply. The current valuation is neutral to low, and it is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [6]. - For rubber, NR and RU have risen and then fluctuated slightly stronger, but considering that the leading varieties in the black market have started to fluctuate, NR and RU still need to guard against the risk of correction. In the second half of the year, it is prone to rise and difficult to fall. Adopt a long - term bullish mindset, build positions opportunistically, and use a neutral - to - bullish or neutral approach in the short - term, taking short - long positions on dips and making quick trades. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9][12]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is the transition from de - stocking to inventory accumulation. Although it has strengthened recently driven by the rebound in the black building materials sector, it will still be under pressure due to the weak fundamental expectations [14]. - For styrene, the short - term geopolitical influence has subsided, and the BZN is expected to recover. It is expected that the styrene price will fluctuate following the cost side [18]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. In July, there are no new capacity investment plans, and the price is expected to remain volatile [20]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season, it is expected that the price will be bearish in July [21]. - For PX, the maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue de - stocking. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [23]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in July, and the processing fee is under pressure. The demand side is also under continuous pressure. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. - For ethylene glycol, the expected inventory reduction at ports will gradually slow down. The valuation is relatively high compared to the same period in history, and the fundamentals are weak. However, due to unexpected shutdowns of Saudi Arabian plants and more - than - expected production cuts of domestic plants, it is expected to be strong in the short - term [26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - On July 17, 2025, the INE main crude oil futures were reported at 517.4 yuan. According to the US EIA weekly data, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.86 million barrels to 422.16 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.91%; the SPR increased by 0.30 million barrels to 402.70 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.07%; gasoline inventory increased by 3.40 million barrels to 232.87 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%; diesel inventory increased by 4.17 million barrels to 106.97 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 4.06%; fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.70 million barrels to 20.14 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 7.77%; aviation kerosene inventory increased by 0.57 million barrels to 44.81 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 1.28% [1]. - In terms of market prices, the WTI main crude oil futures fell 0.11 dollars, a decline of 0.16%, to 66.64 dollars; the Brent main crude oil futures fell 0.15 dollars, a decline of 0.22%, to 68.71 dollars; the INE main crude oil futures fell 0.80 yuan, a decline of 0.15% [7]. Methanol - On July 16, the 09 contract fell 19 yuan/ton to 2367 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 3 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 15. Upstream maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined from a high level. Enterprises still have good profits. Overseas plants' operating rates have returned to medium - high levels, and the market has gradually digested the impact on the overseas supply side. Market fluctuations have begun to narrow. On the demand side, the olefin plants at ports have reduced their loads, and it is the off - season for traditional demand, with the operating rate declining. After the recent decline in methanol prices, the downstream profits have recovered slightly, but the overall level is still low, and the spot valuation of methanol is still high. In the off - season, the upside space is expected to be limited [4]. Urea - On July 16, the 09 contract rose 2 yuan/ton to 1733 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 47. The domestic operating rate has increased slightly, with a daily output of 19.9 tons. The overall corporate profit is at a medium - low level, and the cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has bottomed out and rebounded. With the start of autumn fertilizer preparation, the operating rate will further increase, which will support the demand for urea. The export container loading is still ongoing, and the port inventory continues to rise. The subsequent demand is mainly concentrated in compound fertilizers and exports [6]. Rubber - NR and RU have risen and then fluctuated slightly stronger. However, considering that the leading varieties in the black market have started to fluctuate, NR and RU still need to guard against the risk of correction. As of July 10, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.54%, 0.81 percentage points higher than last week and 5.59 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 72.55%, 2.51 percentage points higher than last week and 6.36 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 129.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 tons, an increase of 0.6%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 78.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 50.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3%. As of July 13, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 50.75 (+ 0.23) tons. In terms of spot prices, the Thai standard mixed rubber was 14120 (- 50) yuan, STR20 was reported at 1730 (- 5) dollars, and STR20 mixed was 1735 (- 5) dollars. The butadiene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 9300 (- 50) yuan, and the cis - polybutadiene in North China was 11300 (- 100) yuan [9][10][11][12]. PVC - On July 17, 2025, the PVC09 contract fell 41 yuan to 4934 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4840 (- 10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 94 (+ 31) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 115 (- 2) yuan/ton. On the cost side, the calcium carbide price in Wuhai was reported at 2250 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 585 (0) yuan/ton, and the ethylene price was 820 (0) dollars/ton. The cost side remained unchanged, and the caustic soda spot price was 840 (0) yuan/ton. This week, the overall operating rate of PVC was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 79.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%; the ethylene method was 71%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. On the demand side, the overall downstream operating rate was 41.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8%. The in - plant inventory was 38.2 tons (- 0.5), and the social inventory was 62.4 tons (+ 3.2) [14]. Styrene - The spot price has decreased, and the futures price has increased, with the basis weakening. Currently, the BZN spread is at a relatively low level in the same period, with a large upward correction space. On the cost side, the operating rate of pure benzene has increased, and the supply is relatively abundant. On the supply side, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has decreased, but the operating rate of styrene has continued to rise. The port inventory of styrene has increased. It is the off - season, and the overall operating rate of the three S products on the demand side has declined. In the short - term, the geopolitical influence has subsided, the BZN is expected to recover, and the styrene price is expected to fluctuate following the cost side [17][18]. Polyethylene - The futures price has decreased. The US has released tariff policies against multiple countries, and the uncertainty of global trade policies has returned. The spot price of polyethylene has remained unchanged, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. The inventory of traders has fluctuated at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. It is the off - season, the orders for agricultural films on the demand side have fluctuated at a low level, and the overall operating rate has declined. The short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. In July, there are no new capacity investment plans, and the polyethylene price is expected to remain volatile [20]. Polypropylene - The futures price has decreased. The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually increase, with the marginal supply of propylene returning. On the demand side, the downstream operating rate has declined seasonally. In the off - season, under the background of weak supply and demand, the price of polypropylene in July is expected to be bearish [21]. PX - On July 17, 2025, the PX09 contract rose 28 yuan to 6716 yuan, the PX CFR fell 4 dollars to 834 dollars, the basis was 160 (- 58) yuan according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 9 - 1 spread was 98 (+ 16) yuan. In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 81.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the Asian load was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In terms of plants, there were not many changes in domestic plants. A 21 - ton plant of Idemitsu in Japan was shut down, the plant in Vietnam resumed operation, and the plant in Thailand was under maintenance. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. In terms of plants, the production of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan increased, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 11.7 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of July, a year - on - year increase of 2.2 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of May was 434.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.5 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 254 dollars (- 1), and the naphtha cracking spread was 79 dollars (- 11). Currently, the PX maintenance season is over, and the load remains high. In the short - term, the valuation has been compressed after the Asian supply has returned and the polyester load has entered the off - season. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue de - stocking. The current valuation is at a neutral level, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following the trend of crude oil [23][24]. PTA - On July 17, 2025, the PTA09 contract rose 10 yuan to 4706 yuan, the spot price in East China rose 5 yuan to 4720 yuan, the basis was 11 (+ 2) yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 50 (+ 10) yuan. The PTA load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. In terms of plants, the production of Yisheng Dalian and Yisheng Hainan increased, and a plant in Taiwan, China restarted. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. In terms of plants, a 60 - ton filament plant of Hengteng restarted, a 60 - ton bottle - chip plant of Wankai was under maintenance, and a 25 - ton chip plant of Guxian Dao was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 7% to 62%, and the loom load decreased by 4% to 58%. As of July 11, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 217.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.8 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the spot processing fee of PTA increased by 25 yuan to 210 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market decreased by 8 yuan to 300 yuan. In the future, on the supply side, the maintenance volume in July is small, and there are new plants being commissioned, with continuous inventory accumulation expected, and the PTA processing fee is under pressure. On the demand side, the inventory pressure of polyester fibers has increased, and the production of bottle - chips has been reduced. Overall, the demand side is under continuous pressure. In terms of valuation, the PXN is expected to be supported under the expectation of improved patterns brought by PTA commissioning. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX [25]. Ethylene Glycol - On July 17, 2025, the EG09 contract rose 29 yuan to 4351 yuan, the spot price in East China fell 8 yuan to 4400 yuan, the basis was 70 (+ 2), and the 9 - 1 spread was 2 (+ 16) yuan. On the supply side, the operating rate of ethylene glycol was 68.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5%. Among them, the operating rate of syngas - based production was 73.1%, a month - on - month increase of 3.8%; the operating rate of ethylene - based production was 64.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. In terms of syngas - based plants, Hongsifang and Tianying restarted; in terms of oil - chemical plants, Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load; overseas, the Sharq plant in the Jubail area of Saudi Arabia shut down and reduced its load again due to power problems. The downstream load was 88.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. In terms of plants, a 60 - ton filament plant of Hengteng restarted, a 60 - ton bottle - chip plant of Wankai was under maintenance, and a 25 - ton chip plant of Guxian Dao was under maintenance. The terminal texturing load decreased by 7% to 62%, and the loom load decreased by 4% to 58%. The forecast of imported arrivals at ports was 4.5 tons, and the departure from East China ports on July 15 was 0.9 tons, with a decrease in outgoing inventory. The port inventory was 55.3 tons, a decrease of 2.7 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the profit of naphtha - based production was - 485 yuan, the profit of domestic ethylene - based production was - 640 yuan, and the profit of coal - based production was 938 yuan. The cost of ethylene remained unchanged at 820 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines increased to 530 yuan. In terms of industrial fundamentals

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The current geopolitical risks in the crude oil market remain uncertain. Although OPEC has slightly exceeded expectations in increasing production, the fundamentals are still in a tight - balance. The overall crude oil is in a long - short game between strong reality and weak expectations. It is recommended that investors control risks and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2] - For methanol, in the context of the off - season, the domestic market is likely to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. After the sentiment cools down, it is expected that there will be no significant unilateral price trend. It is recommended to wait and see [2] - Regarding urea, the domestic supply - demand situation is acceptable, and the price has support at the bottom, but the upside space is also restricted by high supply. It is more advisable to pay attention to short - long opportunities on dips [4] - For rubber, the market has different views from bulls and bears. The overall operation is to maintain a long - term bullish view in the medium - term and a neutral view in the short - term [6][8] - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the main logic of the market is inventory reduction weakening. The market will still face pressure in the future [10] - For styrene, the short - term geopolitical impact has subsided, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate with a downward bias [12] - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - promoted inventory reduction. The price is expected to remain volatile [14] - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in July [15] - For PX, after the maintenance season ends, the load remains high. In the third quarter, due to the commissioning of new PTA plants, PX is expected to continue to reduce inventory. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips following the trend of crude oil [19] - For PTA, in July, the supply - side maintenance is expected to increase, and there will still be a slight reduction in inventory. The processing fee has support, but the demand side is under slight pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to buying on dips following PX [20] - For ethylene glycol, the inventory reduction in ports is expected to slow down. The valuation is neutral year - on - year, and the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities later [21] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI's main crude oil futures fell $0.35, or 0.52%, to $67.18; Brent's main crude oil futures fell $0.34, or 0.49%, to $68.51; INE's main crude oil futures fell 1.20 yuan, or 0.24%, to 502.3 yuan [1] - **Data**: China's weekly crude oil data shows that the arrival inventory decreased by 0.65 million barrels to 208.07 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%; gasoline commercial inventory increased by 1.99 million barrels to 87.97 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.32%; diesel commercial inventory increased by 2.14 million barrels to 100.82 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.17%; total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 4.14 million barrels to 188.79 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% [1] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On July 7, the 09 contract fell 7 yuan/ton to 2392 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 20 yuan/ton, with a basis of +33 [2] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Upstream maintenance has increased, and the operating rate has declined from a high level, but enterprise profits are still good. Iranian plants have restarted, and the overseas operating rate has returned to a medium - high level. The demand side shows that port olefins have reduced their load, and traditional demand is in the off - season, with the operating rate declining [2] Urea - **Market Quotes**: On July 7, the 09 contract rose 13 yuan/ton to 1748 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 10 yuan/ton, with a basis of +42 [4] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The short - term domestic operating rate has declined, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The overall enterprise profit is at a medium - low level, and cost support is expected to gradually strengthen. The demand for compound fertilizers continues to decline, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound with the pre - sale of autumn fertilizers. Export container loading continues, and port inventory has increased significantly [4] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU have adjusted downward in a volatile manner [6] - **Bull - Bear Views**: Bulls believe that factors such as weather and policies in Southeast Asia may lead to rubber production cuts, and the price usually rises in the second half of the year. Bears think that the macro - economic outlook has deteriorated, demand is in the off - season, and the production cut may not meet expectations [6] - **Operating Rate and Inventory**: As of July 3, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.73%, 1.89 percentage points lower than last week and 1.55 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 70.04%, 7.64 percentage points lower than last week and 9.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of June 29, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.293 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7 million tons, or 0.6% [7][8] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract fell 14 yuan to 4892 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4770 (-30) yuan/ton, the basis was - 122 (-16) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 99 (-2) yuan/ton [10] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Recently, there have been more maintenance activities, but production remains at a high level, and there are expectations of multiple plant commissions in the short term. The downstream operating rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season. In July, India's anti - dumping measures are expected to be implemented, and exports are expected to weaken [10] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price has risen, the futures price has fallen, and the basis has strengthened [12] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting's production increase decision. The cost of pure benzene has increased in supply, the profit of ethylbenzene dehydrogenation has risen, and the styrene operating rate has continued to rise. The port inventory has increased, and the demand for three S products has declined seasonally [12] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen, and the spot price has remained unchanged. The PE valuation has limited downward space [14] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The OPEC+ meeting's production increase decision slightly exceeded expectations, and crude oil has oscillated downward. Traders' inventory has continued to increase at a high level, and the support for prices has weakened. The demand for agricultural films is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate has declined [14] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has fallen, and the spot price has remained unchanged [15] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The profit of Shandong refineries has stopped falling and rebounded, and the operating rate is expected to gradually recover. The downstream operating rate has declined seasonally. Under the background of weak supply and demand in the off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in July [15] PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 68 yuan to 6672 yuan, and PX CFR fell 9 dollars to 840 dollars, with a basis of 254 yuan (-5) [17] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The Chinese operating load was 81%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.8%; the Asian operating load was 74.1%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. Some domestic plants have reduced their loads or undergone maintenance, while some overseas plants have restarted or increased their loads. PTA operating load has increased slightly. In June, South Korea's PX exports to China increased year - on - year. Inventory decreased in May [17] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 36 yuan/ton to 4710 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 55 yuan to 4835 yuan, with a basis of 97 yuan (-30) [20] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA operating load was 78.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.5%. Some plants have adjusted their loads. The downstream operating load was 90.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Some downstream plants have carried out maintenance or production cuts. Social inventory decreased slightly in June [20] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 11 yuan/ton to 4277 yuan, and the East China spot price fell 5 yuan to 4365 yuan, with a basis of 76 (0) [21] - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side operating rate was 66.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. Some domestic and overseas plants have undergone maintenance or restarted. The downstream operating load was 90.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Port inventory has decreased, but the inventory reduction is expected to slow down [21]

能源化工日报 2025-07-04 能源化工组 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.35 美元，跌幅 0.52%，报 67.18 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收跌 0.30 美元，跌幅 0.43%，报 68.85 美元；INE 主力原油期货收涨 8.10 元，涨幅 1.63%， 报 506.3 元。 数据方面：新加坡 ESG 油品周度数据出炉，汽油库存去库 0.96 百万桶至 12.37 百万桶，环比 去库 7.18%；柴油库存去库 0.47 百万桶至 9.89 百万桶，环比去库 4.54%；燃料油库存累库 0.88 百万桶至 23.38 百万桶，环比累库 3.91%；总成品油去库 0.55 百万桶至 45.65 百万桶，环比去 库 1.18%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前地缘风险重燃，油价重新启动反弹态势，我们认为当前基本面仍处于紧平衡，即 使 OPEC 会议临近，当前油价不宜贸然空配处理。建议投资者把握风控，观望处理。 甲醇 2025/07/04 甲醇 7 月 3 日 09 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, due to the unclear outcome of the US - Iran negotiation, although OPEC has shown clear production - increase data, considering the bottom - support effect of shale oil and the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation, the current risk - return ratio is not suitable for short - chasing, and short - term observation is recommended [1]. - For methanol, with sufficient domestic supply and a weak macro - environment, there may be a further decline. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies. For cross -品种 trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, the price is expected to have no obvious trend. Given the low basis at the same period, there is no safety margin for long - trading, so short - term observation is recommended [5]. - For rubber, after an oversold rebound, the price is oscillating. Short - long or neutral strategies with short - term operations are recommended. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [11]. - For PVC, under the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, but beware of rebounds if the weak export expectation fails to materialize [13]. - For polyethylene, the price is expected to remain oscillating in June as the short - term contradiction shifts from cost - driven decline to high - maintenance - boosted inventory reduction, and there is no new capacity - commissioning plan [16]. - For polypropylene, due to planned capacity expansion in June and a seasonal decline in demand, the price is expected to be bearish in June [17]. - For PX, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June as the maintenance season ends, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [19]. - For PTA, with supply still in the maintenance season and moderate inventory pressure in the polyester and chemical fiber sector, PTA will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industrial fundamentals are still in the de - stocking stage, but the de - stocking of port inventory is expected to slow down. There is a risk of valuation correction as the maintenance season ends [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main - contract crude - oil futures rose $0.61, or 0.94%, to $65.38; Brent main - contract crude - oil futures rose $0.48, or 0.72%, to $67.13; INE main - contract crude - oil futures rose 8.20 yuan, or 1.76%, to 474.3 yuan [1]. - **Data**: China's weekly crude - oil arrival inventory decreased by 2.27 million barrels to 204.55 million barrels, a 1.10% week - on - week decline; gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 0.66 million barrels to 84.21 million barrels, a 0.78% decline; diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.81 million barrels to 96.16 million barrels, a 0.85% increase; total refined - oil commercial inventory increased by 0.15 million barrels to 180.37 million barrels, a 0.09% increase [1]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: On June 9, the 09 - contract rose 13 yuan/ton to 2277 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 23 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 58 [3]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply has bottomed out and rebounded as previously - maintained plants resume operation, and is at a high level in the same period. Enterprise profits have continuously declined from a high level. Demand has slightly improved as the MTO device at the port has returned to a high - operation level, and traditional demand has generally rebounded this week. The port inventory has increased slowly, and the price has shown strength. Inland supply has increased while demand has weakened, and the price has declined, leading to an expanding price difference between the port and the inland area [3]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: On June 9, the 09 - contract fell 23 yuan/ton to 1697 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 70 yuan/ton, with a basis of + 83 [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply remains at a high level, and daily output continues to rise. Demand has decreased as the production of compound fertilizers for the summer season is ending, and the enterprise operation rate has rapidly declined. The pre - order volume of urea enterprises has continuously decreased. Under the situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, enterprise inventory has accumulated to a high level in the same period, and the basis has widened [5]. Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU are oscillating and consolidating [8]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Bulls believe that the weather, rubber - forest situation, and relevant policies in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, may contribute to rubber production reduction. Bears believe that the macro - expectation has deteriorated, demand is flat and in a seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices will stimulate a large amount of new supply throughout the year, and the production - reduction amplitude may be lower than expected [9]. - **Industry Data**: As of June 5, 2025, the operation rate of full - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 63.45%, 1.33 percentage points lower than last week but 2.56 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The inventory of tire factories is consumed slowly. The operation rate of domestic semi - steel tire enterprises was 73.49%, 4.39 percentage points lower than last week and 6.75 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Overseas new - order performance is poor. As of June 1, 2025, China's natural - rubber social inventory was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons or 2.1% from the previous period. China's dark - rubber social inventory was 763,000 tons, a 3.4% week - on - week decline; light - rubber social inventory was 517,000 tons, a 0.1% decline. As of June 9, 2025, the natural - rubber inventory in Qingdao was 484,200 (- 1,500) tons [10]. - **Spot Prices**: Thai standard mixed rubber was 13,600 (+ 50) yuan; STR20 was reported at 1,685 (+ 5) US dollars; STR20 mixed was 1,675 (+ 5) US dollars; Jiangsu and Zhejiang butadiene was 9,450 (- 100) yuan; North China cis - butadiene rubber was 11,400 (0) yuan [11]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 26 yuan to 4,816 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,700 (0) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 116 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 79 (- 4) yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost and Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost of calcium carbide has increased, and the overall operation rate of PVC has increased. The downstream operation rate has slightly increased. Factory inventory has increased, and social inventory has decreased. Fundamentally, enterprise profit pressure has improved, the maintenance season has ended, and future production is expected to increase. There are expectations of multiple device commissions. The domestic operation rate is still weak compared with previous years and is entering the off - season. Export orders have weakened, and there is an expectation of weakening due to Indian policies and anti - dumping and BIS certification. The cost of calcium carbide has decreased, and the valuation support has weakened [13]. Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main - contract closing price was 7,078 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7,150 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, with a basis of 72 yuan/ton, strengthening by 3 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The fire in Alberta, Canada, has offset the OPEC +'s planned production increase of 411,000 barrels in July. The spot price of polyethylene has risen, and the downward space for PE valuation is limited. The new - capacity addition in June is small, and the supply - side pressure may be relieved. The inventory at the upper and middle reaches has decreased from a high level, which supports the price. It is a seasonal off - season, and the demand for agricultural films has decreased marginally, with the overall operation rate oscillating downward [16]. Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price has risen. The main - contract closing price was 6,932 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, and the spot price was 7,120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 188 yuan/ton, weakening by 7 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The fire in Alberta, Canada, has offset the OPEC +'s planned production increase of 411,000 barrels in July. Although the spot price has not changed, the decline is much smaller than that of PE. There is a planned capacity expansion of 2.2 million tons in June, which is the most concentrated month of the year. The downstream operation rate is expected to decline seasonally as the plastic - weaving orders have reached a phased peak [17]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract fell 62 yuan to 6,494 yuan, and PX CFR fell 10 US dollars to 808 US dollars. The basis was 198 yuan (- 20), and the 9 - 1 spread was 138 yuan (- 42) [19]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PX operation rate in China has increased to 87%, a 4.9% increase, and the Asian operation rate has increased to 75.1%, a 3.1% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants have restarted or adjusted their operation loads. The PTA operation rate is 81.3%, a 4.9% increase. In May, South Korea's PX exports to China were 303,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 87,000 tons. The inventory at the end of April was 4.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons. The PXN is 240 US dollars (- 18), and the naphtha crack spread is 72 US dollars (- 7) [19]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract fell 50 yuan to 4,602 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 65 yuan/ton to 4,830 yuan. The basis was 208 yuan (- 17), and the 9 - 1 spread was 110 yuan (- 26) [20]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The PTA operation rate is 81.3%, a 4.9% increase. Some plants have restarted, postponed restart, or carried out maintenance. The downstream operation rate is 91.1%, a 0.6% decrease. Some downstream plants have adjusted their production. The terminal draw - texturing operation rate has decreased by 2% to 80%, and the loom operation rate has decreased by 1% to 68%. As of May 30, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.208 million tons, a decrease of 94,000 tons from the previous period. The PTA spot processing fee has decreased by 11 yuan to 440 yuan, and the futures processing fee has decreased by 9 yuan to 342 yuan [20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 5 yuan to 4,256 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 26 yuan to 4,382 yuan. The basis was 115 (- 8), and the 9 - 1 spread was 3 yuan (- 18) [21]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The ethylene - glycol operation rate is 59.9%, unchanged from the previous period. Some domestic and overseas plants have carried out maintenance or restarted. The downstream operation rate is 91.1%, a 0.6% decrease. Some downstream plants have adjusted their production. The terminal draw - texturing operation rate has decreased by 2% to 80%, and the loom operation rate has decreased by 1% to 68%. The import arrival forecast is 108,000 tons, and the average daily departure from the East - China port from June 6 - 8 was 930 tons, with an increase in outbound volume. The port inventory is 634,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons. The naphtha - based production profit is - 356 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit is - 461 yuan, and the coal - based production profit is 1,218 yuan. The cost of ethylene has remained unchanged at 780 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines has decreased to 450 yuan [21].