1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices showed a strong and volatile trend. The import loss of domestic refined copper narrowed. The US durable goods orders increased by 5.3%, and the market's bet on a new US government shutdown by the end of January reached 78%. In December, China's net refined copper imports decreased by 48.44% year - on - year, while waste copper imports increased. LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased, while Comex copper inventory increased. Although high copper prices have weakened consumption and increased inventory, the spill - over effect of the bullish sentiment in precious metals and the capital's pursuit of non - ferrous metals still maintain the upward momentum of copper prices. The current copper price should be evaluated from a financial perspective, and the overall trend is considered bullish and volatile. It is recommended to buy on dips [1]. Aluminum - Overnight, alumina was weakly volatile, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy were strongly volatile. The spot price of alumina declined, and the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened. Due to environmental control in Henan, alumina production was restricted, and inventory decreased. After the price adjustment, downstream demand improved, and the inventory accumulation speed slowed down. It is expected that the aluminum price will be supported upwards before the holiday. Attention should be paid to inventory trends and holiday arrangements [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, both LME and Shanghai nickel prices declined, and inventories increased. It is expected that Indonesia's nickel ore production will decrease by 10% - 15% this year. The price of nickel - related products has increased, but the production of primary nickel has increased significantly, and the social inventory has also increased, which may put pressure on the price. In the short term, the price may fluctuate widely at a high level. Attention should be paid to the cost line for potential long - entry opportunities and the actual implementation of policies [2][3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: The fundamental and financial factors jointly affect copper prices. The financial attribute is more important at present, and the overall trend is bullish and volatile [1]. - **Aluminum**: Environmental control affects production, downstream demand improves, and the price is expected to be supported upwards [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's policy supports the price in the short term, but the increase in production and inventory may cause pressure. The price may fluctuate widely at a high level [2][3]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 1585 yuan/ton, and the import loss narrowed. LME and SHFE copper inventories decreased, while Comex copper inventory increased [1][4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: The prices of Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 4250 yuan/ton, and the social inventory increased [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price increased by 0.8%, and the inventory increased [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price increased by 5.5%, and the inventory increased [7]. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts to analyze the spot premium, SHFE near - far month spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profit of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 - 2026 [13][14][21][27][33][40].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][51]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: The expectation of monetary easing continues, leading to a sustained increase in gold prices. As of December 26, the COMEX gold futures contract reached $4,562 per ounce, a 4.4% increase month-on-month. The SPDR Gold ETF saw a 1.8% increase to 1,071 tons. The U.S. unemployment rate in November was 4.6%, exceeding the expected 4.5%. The U.S. November unadjusted CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 3.1%, while the unadjusted core CPI rose 2.6%, below the expected 3%. These economic data points enhance expectations for monetary easing, which may drive gold prices higher in the long term due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credit [3][4][6]. - Industrial Metals: The financial attribute pricing weight is accelerating, and there is optimism for an upward trend in industrial metal prices [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metal Index Trends - As of December 26, 2025, the non-ferrous metal index (000819.SH) closed at 9,309.86 points, a 6.3% increase month-on-month. The precious metal index (801053.SI) closed at 24,539.60 points, up 4.1%. The industrial metal index (801055.SI) closed at 3,433.59 points, up 7.1%. The energy metal index (399366.SZ) closed at 2,752.26 points, up 6.0%. During the same period, the CSI 300 index rose 1.95% [9]. 2. Precious Metals 2.1 Gold - The report highlights the ongoing monetary easing expectations and the resulting upward trend in gold prices, with specific data on price movements and ETF holdings [3][4]. 3. Industrial Metals 3.1 Copper - As of December 26, SHFE copper futures rose 5.95% to 98,720 yuan per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 193,600 tons, an increase of 27,800 tons month-on-month. LME copper inventory stood at 157,000 tons. The report indicates that the price elasticity of copper is accelerating due to the increased financial attribute pricing weight and tightening expectations in the fundamental outlook [5][6]. 3.2 Aluminum - As of December 26, SHFE aluminum futures rose 1.0% to 22,405 yuan per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 617,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons month-on-month. The report notes that the macroeconomic environment is supportive of aluminum prices, which are expected to maintain a high-level oscillation [5][6]. 3.3 Tin - As of December 26, SHFE tin futures fell 1.3% to 338,600 yuan per ton. Domestic social inventory increased by 186 tons to 9,378 tons. The report mentions supply concerns due to geopolitical issues affecting the Congo and regulatory tightening in Indonesia, leading to a tightening trend in the tin market [5][6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties enhance its safe-haven attributes. For copper, domestic demand is gradually recovering, and there is a long-term demand space opening up globally. For aluminum, the supply-demand dynamics are expected to accelerate, leading to potential price increases [6][48].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to outperform in 2025, driven by weakening US dollar credit and the AI technology revolution [1] - Non-ferrous metals are anticipated to become the "oil" of a new round of industrial chain transformation, widely used in semiconductors, AI computing infrastructure, and new energy systems [1] - Significant price increases for industrial metals like COMEX copper and LME tin are expected in 2025, although the supply-demand gap is not apparent, indicating financial pricing attributes for future supply-demand relationships [1] Group 2 - By 2026, as global narratives may converge, non-ferrous metals will shift from long-term pricing to a combination of short and long-term pricing, with real demand pricing power increasing [1] - Structural support may arise from "anti-involution" policies and export demand driven by industrialization in southern countries [1] - The Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which selects representative stocks from the non-ferrous metals industry, covering sectors like copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths [1]