铁水产量回升，盘面高位震荡 铁矿石周报 20260106 供应：外矿方面，12月29日-1月4日，全球铁矿石发运总量3213.7万吨，环比减少463.4万吨；澳洲发运量1939.6万吨，环比减 少174.1万吨；巴西发运量792.5万吨，环比减少151.5万吨，非主流矿发运量1029万吨，环比减少191.1万吨。中国45港到港总 量2756.4万吨，环比增加155万吨。内矿方面，截至12月31日，全国186家矿山铁精粉日均产量43.33万吨，环比降0.06万吨， 产能利用率55.45%，环比降0.08%；矿山精粉库存84.52万吨，环比降0.95万吨。 需求：12月31日当周，日均铁水产量227.43万吨，环比+0.85万吨。钢厂产量指标限制结束，部分钢厂高炉复产，铁水产量回 升，对矿价有所支撑。 库存：本期进口矿库存延续增加，在港船舶数量增加2艘至105艘。本期压港小幅增加，到港维持高位，港口库存延续累库，维 持高位水平，而钢厂库存低位小幅增加，冬储补库预期仍存支撑。 基差：05、09合约基差小幅回升。 利润：钢厂盈利率小幅回升，进口矿价在100-105美元/吨区间震荡。 总结：本期全球发运环比季节性回落， ...

研究报告 铁矿周报 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周铁矿 2605 合约上涨 0.77%。 基本面：据 Mysteel，上周 247 家钢厂高炉开工率 78.32%，环比减少 0.15%，同比减少 0.39%；钢厂盈利率 37.23%，环比增加 1.30%，同比减少 12.55%；日均铁水产量 226.58 万吨，环比增加 0.03 万吨，同比减少 1.29 万吨。全国 45 个港口进口铁矿库存总量 15858.66 万吨，环比增加 346.03 万吨；日均疏港量 315.06 万吨，增 1.61 万吨。 报告日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 后市展望：近期全球铁矿石发运量环比回落，仍处于近三年同期高位 水平。钢厂铁矿库存同比偏低，部分钢厂的补库需求对铁矿现货价格短期 有所支撑，总体预计中期铁矿以偏弱震荡为 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is about the iron ore market, with the trading logic of continuous decline in hot metal production and weak shock in the market [5]. - The global iron ore shipment increased slightly this period, with an increase in Australian and non - mainstream ores and a decrease in Brazilian ores. The arrival volume decreased slightly and remained at a medium - high level. Domestic ore production dropped to a low level, and the overall supply was relatively loose [6]. - The hot metal production continued to decline. With the deepening of the off - season of terminal demand, the number of steel mill overhauls increased, and there was still room for the hot metal production to decline. The support of steel mills' rigid demand procurement weakened [6]. - The port inventory increased slightly and remained at a medium - high level, while the steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level. The demand for winter storage replenishment had not started, and the overall inventory was relatively stable [5][6]. - The basis of 01 and 05 contracts fluctuated slightly, and the steel mill profitability increased slightly. The imported ore price fluctuated in the range of 100 - 105 US dollars per ton [5]. - The strategy is range - bound trading, and the iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [6]. Group 2: Price and Spread - The spot price fluctuated and declined [7]. - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder, as well as between PB powder and Macfarlane powder, fluctuated at a low level [13][17]. - The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated and declined, and the 05 basis declined slightly [21]. - The screw - ore ratio fluctuated and rebounded, and the ore - coke ratio fluctuated at a high level [28]. Group 3: Supply - From December 1st to December 7th, the global iron ore shipment was 3368.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.4 tons. The Australian shipment was 1967.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 147.0 tons; the Brazilian shipment was 675.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 254.2 tons; the non - mainstream ore shipment was 1174.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 91 tons [5]. - The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2480.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 218.8 tons [5]. - As of December 5th, the daily average output of iron concentrate powder of 186 domestic mines was 45.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09 tons, the capacity utilization rate was 58.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%, and the mine concentrate powder inventory was 75.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 tons [5]. - The shipping price index declined slightly [51]. Group 4: Demand - In the week of December 5th, the daily average hot metal output was 232.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38 tons. With the deepening of the off - season of terminal demand, the number of steel mill overhauls increased, and the hot metal production still had room to decline [5]. - The steel mill blast furnace profit declined slightly [64]. Group 5: Inventory - The imported ore inventory increased slightly, the number of ships at the port decreased by 3 to 109, the port congestion decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate and remained at a medium - high level [5]. - The steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level, and the demand for winter storage replenishment had not started [5][6]. - The port throughput declined from a high level, and the port inventory increased slightly [77]. - The Australian ore inventory continued to increase, and the Brazilian ore inventory declined from a high level [81]. - The coarse powder inventory fluctuated at a high level, and the lump ore inventory increased slightly [87].

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 11 月 19 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：11月18日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2601 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.13%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are poor. Coupled with the weakening market sentiment, steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.22%, also showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. At present, the industrial contradictions of hot-rolled coils remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices continue to be under pressure. However, there is still support at the cost end. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened, with a daily increase of 1.38%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. At present, the departure of arbitrage funds has driven the low-level rebound of ore prices. However, the demand for iron ore is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are still weak. Under the real - world logic, ore prices are still prone to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - From January to October this year, the national investment in water conservancy construction exceeded 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1009.47 billion yuan. A total of 46,000 various water conservancy projects were implemented, and 28,000 new water conservancy projects were started, including a number of major water conservancy projects [7]. - Beijing has completed its 2025 affordable housing construction task. As of the end of October, the planned construction and procurement of 50,000 sets (units) of affordable rental housing and the completion of 80,000 sets (units) of various affordable housing have been fully achieved [8]. - Handan issued an orange warning for heavy pollution weather and launched a Level II emergency response on November 12, 2025, which is expected to be lifted around November 16 [9]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price is 3,160 yuan, Tianjin is 3,210 yuan, and the national average is 3,231 yuan. For hot-rolled coils, the Shanghai price is 3,270 yuan, Tianjin is 3,200 yuan, and the national average is 3,309 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet is 2,930 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,130 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is 110 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,030 yuan [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 781 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 798 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia is 10.24 yuan, and from Brazil is 23.34 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) is 102.83 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) is 102.35 yuan [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,038 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The trading volume is 775,671 lots, an increase of 22,561 lots, and the open interest is 1,868,036 lots, a decrease of 55,665 lots [14]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract is 3,255 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.22%. The trading volume is 343,788 lots, an increase of 19,420 lots, and the open interest is 1,311,464 lots, a decrease of 15,428 lots [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 774.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.38%. The trading volume is 351,878 lots, an increase of 89,487 lots, and the open interest is 501,233 lots, a decrease of 29,119 lots [14]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventories (including rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories), iron ore inventories (including national 45-port iron ore inventories, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventories), and steel mill production situations (including 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates) [16][21][30] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of construction steel mills decreased by 40,500 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 136,600 tons. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level due to the poor fundamentals and weak market sentiment, although there is cost support. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - For hot-rolled coils, both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 54,000 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 175,900 tons. The industrial contradictions remain unresolved, and the inventory has increased again. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [38]. - For iron ore, the weak supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory has increased significantly. The demand for iron ore continues to be weak, and the supply pressure has not been relieved. Although arbitrage funds have driven the low - level rebound of ore prices, in the short term, ore prices are still prone to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The market sentiment has weakened, and the market has been fluctuating downward this week. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year-on-year. The port inventory has increased, while the steel mill inventory has slightly declined. The daily average pig iron output remains high but is expected to gradually decline in the future. The recommended operating strategy is to participate in the short - term bearish market [38]. Summary by Directory 1. Trend Review - **Iron Ore Main Contract and Spot Trends**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the market has been fluctuating downward this week. The prices of various iron ore spot products have changed. For example, the price of PB powder has dropped from 821 to 784, and the price of Super Special powder has dropped from 917 to 712 [9][12]. 2. Basis and Spread - **Iron Ore Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The main contract basis is 3.5, the 01 - 05 spread is 21.5, the pb - super special spread is 75, and the Brazilian coarse - pb spread is 6 [18]. - **Ratio of Rebar to Iron Ore**: The ratio of rebar to iron ore continues to be weak [21]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Iron Ore Supply**: This week, the weekly shipment of mainstream mines is 1950.3 tons, and the domestic mine capacity utilization rate is 60.66%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year - on - year [24]. - **International Ocean Freight**: The freight rate of iron ore from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 10.46 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 23.73 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 2046 [27]. - **Iron Ore Inventory - Imported Ore Inventory**: The port inventory is 14278.27 tons, the Australian ore inventory is 5869.73 tons, the Brazilian ore inventory is 5684 tons, the iron ore arrival volume is 2269.4 tons, and the trade ore inventory is 9208.11 tons [30]. - **Iron Ore Inventory - Steel Mill Inventory**: This week, the iron ore port inventory is 14278.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 253.77 tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory is 8982.73 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.46 tons. The available days of the steel mill's imported iron ore are 21 days, unchanged from the previous week [31]. - **Iron Ore Demand**: This week, the daily average pig iron output is 240.95 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 tons. The daily average port clearance volume has returned to normal after the holiday. The pig iron output remains high with strong resilience but is expected to gradually decline in the future [34]. 4. Future Outlook - The market sentiment has weakened, and the market has been fluctuating downward. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year - on - year. The port inventory has increased, while the steel mill inventory has slightly declined. The daily average pig iron output remains high but is expected to gradually decline. The recommended operating strategy is to participate in the short - term bearish market [38].

Group 1: Report Core View - The iron ore market rebounded slightly this week, and market sentiment improved. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year-on-year. The port inventory increased, while the steel mill inventory decreased. The daily average molten iron production remained high, and the demand for iron ore is resilient. The operation strategy is to participate in the short - term. [46] Group 2: Summary by Directory 1. Trend Review - The market sentiment warmed up, and iron ore rebounded from a low level. [9] - The price changes of iron ore spot varieties are as follows: PB powder rose from 784 to 821, Super Special powder rose from 712 to 917, Jinbuba powder rose from 754 to 904, Ba Hun rose from 821 to 845, Mike rose from 775 to 842, and Newman rose from 779 to 840. [13] 2. Basis and Spread - The iron ore futures - spot price spread situation: the main basis is - 6.5, 01 - 05 is 19.5, pb - super special is 72, and Ba Cu - pb is 9. The ratio of rebar to iron ore continued to be weak. [19][22] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The weekly shipment of mainstream mines was 1.9922 million tons this week. The utilization rate of domestic mine production capacity was 59.89%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year - on - year. [28] - **International Freight**: The iron ore freight rate from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 9.37 US dollars/ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 23.98 US dollars/ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 1923. [31] - **Inventory - Imported Ore**: The port inventory is 140.245 million tons, the Australian ore inventory is 57.8043 million tons, the Brazilian ore inventory is 55.3653 million tons, the iron ore arrival volume is 22.694 million tons, and the trading ore inventory is 91.4492 million tons. [34] - **Inventory - Steel Mill**: The port inventory of iron ore this week is 140.245 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 242,200 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills is 90.4916 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.906 million tons. The available days of imported iron ore in steel mills are 21 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 4 days. [38] - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron production this week is 2.4154 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27,000 tons. The daily average dredging volume remains at a relatively high level, and the molten iron production remains high, showing stronger resilience than expected. [41] 4. Outlook for the Future - The iron ore market rebounded slightly this week with improved market sentiment. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year - on - year. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory decreased. The daily average molten iron production remained high, and the demand for iron ore is resilient. The operation strategy is to participate in the short - term. [46]

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028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 028 6130 3163 institute@gjqh.com.cn 4006821188 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore showed a weak and volatile trend this week. After the positive news was released in China after the May Day holiday, iron ore briefly rose and then fell. As terminal demand weakened, iron ore oscillated downward. The supply of iron ore remained at a relatively high level, while steel demand began to decline. It is expected that the molten iron output has basically reached its peak and will gradually decline in the future. Iron ore will continue to be weak, and the short - term operation strategy is to participate with a short - bias [10][45]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Trend Review - **Iron ore futures main contract trend**: Iron ore was weak and volatile this week. After the positive news in China after the May Day holiday, it briefly rose and then fell. With the weakening of terminal demand, it oscillated downward [10]. - **Iron ore spot trend**: The prices of different iron ore spot varieties are as follows: PB powder was 755, Super Special powder was 619, Jinbuba powder was 713, Brazilian Blend was 766, Mac was 735, and Newman was 748 [14]. 2. Basis and Spread - **Iron ore futures - spot price spread trend**: The main contract basis was 58.5, 05 - 09 spread was 62.5, pb - Super Special spread was 136, and Brazilian coarse - pb spread was - 13 [19]. - **Ratio of rebar to iron ore**: The ratio of rebar to iron ore rebounded slightly from a low level [21]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Iron ore supply**: The weekly shipment of mainstream mines this week was 1.8332 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 62.62%. The supply of iron ore remained at a relatively high level [27]. - **International shipping freight**: The freight rate from Port Hedland to Qingdao was 7.74 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) was 18.8 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index was 1316 [30]. - **Iron ore inventory - Imported ore inventory**: Port inventory was 142.3871 million tons, Australian ore inventory was 59.9132 million tons, Brazilian ore inventory was 54.6716 million tons, iron ore arrival volume was 22.694 million tons, and trade ore inventory was 96.0272 million tons [33]. - **Iron ore inventory - Steel mill inventory**: This week, the port inventory of iron ore was 142.3871 million tons, a decrease of 637,700 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.5895 million tons, a decrease of 3.76 million tons compared with the previous week. The available days of imported iron ore in steel mills were 22 days, the same as the previous week [37]. - **Iron ore demand**: The average daily molten iron output this week was 245,640 tons, remaining at a high level. The average daily port clearance volume decreased significantly. Steel mills mainly consumed their own iron ore inventory. Steel demand began to decline, and it is expected that the molten iron output has basically reached its peak and will gradually decline in the future [40]. 4. Future Outlook - Iron ore will continue to be weak, and the short - term operation strategy is to participate with a short - bias [45].