Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily decline of 0.29%, and the volume and open interest increased. Currently, both supply and demand of rebar are weakening, and the weak fundamental pattern remains unchanged. The steel price in the off - season continues to be under pressure, with the cost support being a relative positive factor. It is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.40%, the volume decreased and the open interest increased. At present, the supply of hot - rolled coil is at a high level, while the demand has weakened. The fundamentals are weak, and the hot - rolled coil price will still be under pressure to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the pressure caused by the intensification of the demand - weakening contradiction [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.73%, and the volume and open interest increased. Currently, the high inventory combined with the stable recovery of overseas shipments means that the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided, while the demand is weak. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of iron ore continue to weaken. It is expected that the iron ore price will still be under pressure to run weakly, and attention should be paid to the shipments of miners [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In January 2026, 1329 projects started nationwide, with a total investment of about 7330.51 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of investment were Guangdong, Fujian, and Sichuan, with total investments of 2985.79 billion yuan, 1408.64 billion yuan, and 401.24 billion yuan respectively [7]. - As of February 5, 14 car companies released their new - energy vehicle sales data for January 2026. BYD, Geely, and SAIC ranked in the top three in terms of monthly sales, with 210,100, 124,300, and 85,400 vehicles respectively. Eight car companies achieved year - on - year growth, with GAC Group having the largest increase of 162.90% and Seres having a growth rate of 140.33%. All 14 car companies showed a month - on - month decline, with BAIC New Energy having the largest decline [8]. - In late January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 21.28 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.935 million tons, a 2.2% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.15 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.741 million tons, a 3.0% decrease in daily output month - on - month; and 21.3 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.936 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month [9]. Spot Market - For rebar (HRB400E, 20mm), the Shanghai price was 3,190 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), the Tianjin price was 3,160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the national average price was 3,307 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). For hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm), the Shanghai price was 3,250 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), the Tianjin price was 3,160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the national average price was 3,287 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton). The price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160 yuan/ton (unchanged). The coil - rebar price difference was 60 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,030 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 765 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton), the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 772 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Australian freight was 8.35 yuan/ton (down 0.54 yuan/ton), the Brazilian freight was 23.96 yuan/ton (down 1.24 yuan/ton), the SGX swap (current month) was 102.50 (up 0.75), and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 102.25 (up 0.25) [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar active contract was 3,101 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.29%, the highest price was 3,113 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,086 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 681,405 lots (an increase of 67,315 lots), and the open interest was 1,847,671 lots (an increase of 49,444 lots) [14]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil active contract was 3,263 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.40%, the highest price was 3,278 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,255 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 283,875 lots (a decrease of 1,310 lots), and the open interest was 1,494,646 lots (an increase of 11,934 lots) [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore active contract was 768.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.73%, the highest price was 779.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 764.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 331,736 lots (an increase of 91,206 lots), and the open interest was 525,113 lots (an increase of 9,456 lots) [14]. Related Charts - The report presents charts related to steel inventory (including rebar inventory and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory), and steel - mill production (including blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability) [16][24][32] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand are seasonally weakening, and inventory is continuously accumulating. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 81,500 tons month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk, but the inventory level is significantly higher than the same lunar period last year, with limited pressure relief. The demand for rebar continues to be seasonally weak, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions have both shrunk significantly. Considering the lack of improvement in downstream industries, the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, which will continue to drag down the steel price. The relative positive factor is the post - holiday policy expectation. It is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [40]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has changed little, and the inventory has increased again. The production of plate mills has stabilized, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 50 tons month - on - month, and the supply pressure has not subsided. The demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased by 58,700 tons month - on - month, and the high - frequency daily transactions continue to operate at a low level. Although the high - level production of downstream cold - rolled products provides support for the demand of hot - rolled coil, there are hidden concerns about the demand. The hot - rolled coil price will still be under pressure to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has changed little, and the inventory continues to rise. Steel - mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore is running smoothly. The average daily pig - iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills decreased slightly last week. The demand for iron ore is expected to continue to be weak. The arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, and the shipments of overseas miners have continued to increase. The supply of overseas iron ore has stabilized, while the domestic supply is stable. Coupled with the high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided. It is expected that the iron ore price will still be under pressure to run weakly, and attention should be paid to the shipments of miners [41].

铁矿石产业链日报 2026/1/21 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告 不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形 式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | I 主力合约收盘价（元/吨） | 784.00 | -5.50↓ I 主力合约持仓量(手) | 575,249 | -11163↓ | | | I 5-9合约价差（元/吨） | 17.5 | -0.50↓ I 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -11649 | -5527↓ | | | I 大商所仓单（手） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current iron ore supply is relatively abundant, with the demand side seeing a rebound in molten iron production, which provides support for rigid - demand procurement. Coupled with the expectation of winter storage replenishment, the iron ore market will maintain a volatile operation in the short term. The trading strategy is range - bound [5][6]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Price - Spot prices are fluctuating and consolidating [7] - The price difference between high - and medium - grade ores is widening, while the price difference between medium - and low - grade ores is temporarily stable. The price difference between PB powder and Mac fine powder is decreasing. The 5 - 9 spread is oscillating at a low level, and the basis of the 05 and 09 contracts is slightly rising [12][16][20] - As of January 5, 2026, the spot price of Karara powder is 895, up 11 from the end of last month, with a notional futures price of 841, also up 11; the spot price of PB powder is 806, up 4, with a notional futures price of 858, up 5; the spot price of Super Special powder is 684, up 4, with a notional futures price of 887, up 5. The high - medium grade price difference is 89, and the medium - low grade price difference is 122. The optimal deliverable product is 61.5% Brazilian coarse ore, with a spot price of 770 and a notional futures price of 838 [29] - The rebar - to - ore ratio continues to decline, and the ore - to - coking coal ratio is oscillating at a high level [30] Supply - From December 29 to January 4, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3.2137 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 463,400 tons. Australian shipments were 1.9396 million tons, a decrease of 174,100 tons; Brazilian shipments were 792,500 tons, a decrease of 151,500 tons; non - mainstream ore shipments were 1.029 million tons, a decrease of 191,100 tons. The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2.7564 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 155,000 tons [5] - As of December 31, the daily average output of iron ore concentrate from 186 mines across the country was 43,330 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 55.45%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08%. The mine concentrate inventory was 84,520 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 950 tons [5] - Global shipments are seasonally declining, with non - mainstream ore shipments, Australian ore shipped to China, Brazilian ore shipments, FMG and BHP shipments to China, RT shipments to China, and VALE shipments all showing declines. The freight rate index continues to decline. The arrival volume has slightly increased and remains at a high level, and the decline in domestic iron ore concentrate production has slowed down [36][40][44][48][52][56][59] Demand - In the week of December 31, the daily average molten iron production was 227,430 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8,500 tons. The end of the steel mill production quota restrictions led to the resumption of production of some steel mill blast furnaces, and the rebound in molten iron production supports the ore price. The steel mill profit rate has slightly increased, and the imported ore price is oscillating in the range of $100 - 105 per ton [5] - Steel mill blast furnace profits have slightly increased, and blast furnaces in steel mills are gradually resuming production, with molten iron production slightly rebounding [65][71] Inventory - In this period, the imported ore inventory continued to increase, the number of ships at the port increased by 2 to 105, the port congestion slightly increased, the arrival volume remained at a high level, the port inventory continued to accumulate and remained at a high level, while the steel mill inventory slightly increased from a low level, and the expectation of winter storage replenishment still provides support [5] - The port throughput has slightly increased, the port inventory has continued to increase, the Australian ore inventory has continued to increase, the Brazilian ore inventory has slightly decreased, the coarse powder inventory remains at a high level, and the lump ore inventory has slightly decreased. Steel mill consumption has slightly increased, and the imported ore inventory is at a low level [78][82][89][97]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose by 0.77%. Recently, the global iron ore shipping volume has decreased month-on-month but remains at a high level compared to the same period in the past three years. Steel mills' iron ore inventories are lower than the same period last year, and the restocking demand of some steel mills provides short-term support for the spot price of iron ore. Overall, it is expected that iron ore will show a weak and volatile trend in the medium term [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Not elaborated in the provided content, only the headings "Futures Price", "Spread Analysis (Basis in dry tons)", and "Position Analysis (Net Position Analysis of Futures Seats)" are given [6][7] 3.2 Important Market Information - The People's Bank of China will strengthen macro - prudential management of real estate finance and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasizes balancing supply and demand and optimizing the structure of raw material industries such as steel and petrochemicals, and continuing to regulate crude steel production. The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the daily price limit range of coke and coking coal futures contracts to 10% starting from December 30, 2025, while keeping the trading margin level unchanged. The National Development and Reform Commission will strengthen coal supply and promote the construction of strategic reserves of coal - to - oil and gas [12] 3.3 Supply - side Situation - As of November 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 11,054 tons, a decrease of 77 tons from the previous month, and the import average price was $101.49 per ton, an increase of $0.94 per ton from the previous month. Australia's iron ore shipping volume was 6,184.9 tons, a decrease of 499.3 tons from the previous month, and Brazil's was 3,096.3 tons, an increase of 170.8 tons from the first half of the month [17][19] 3.4 Demand - side Situation - Not elaborated in the provided content, only the headings "Daily Average Hot Metal Output of 247 Steel Mills", "Profit Margin of 247 Steel Mills", and "Shanghai Terminal Rebar and Wire Rod Purchases" are given [20][26] 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.61%. The steel mill profit margin was 37.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55%. The daily average hot metal output was 226.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.29 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in the country was 15,858.66 tons, a month - on - month increase of 346.03 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 315.06 tons, an increase of 1.61 tons. At 47 ports, the total inventory was 16,619.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 394.43 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume was 328.76 tons, an increase of 0.53 tons [29][30] 3.6 Future Outlook - Recently, the global iron ore shipping volume has decreased month - on - month but remains at a high level compared to the same period in the past three years. Steel mills' iron ore inventories are lower than the same period last year, and the restocking demand of some steel mills provides short - term support for the spot price of iron ore. Overall, it is expected that iron ore will show a weak and volatile trend in the medium term [5][31] 3.7 Operation Strategies - Single - side: Be cautious and take short positions lightly when the price is high. If the price stands firm at the important resistance level of 800 yuan/ton in the future, it is recommended to exit and wait and see. Reduce positions before the holiday to avoid risks during the holiday. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [5][33]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is about the iron ore market, with the trading logic of continuous decline in hot metal production and weak shock in the market [5]. - The global iron ore shipment increased slightly this period, with an increase in Australian and non - mainstream ores and a decrease in Brazilian ores. The arrival volume decreased slightly and remained at a medium - high level. Domestic ore production dropped to a low level, and the overall supply was relatively loose [6]. - The hot metal production continued to decline. With the deepening of the off - season of terminal demand, the number of steel mill overhauls increased, and there was still room for the hot metal production to decline. The support of steel mills' rigid demand procurement weakened [6]. - The port inventory increased slightly and remained at a medium - high level, while the steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level. The demand for winter storage replenishment had not started, and the overall inventory was relatively stable [5][6]. - The basis of 01 and 05 contracts fluctuated slightly, and the steel mill profitability increased slightly. The imported ore price fluctuated in the range of 100 - 105 US dollars per ton [5]. - The strategy is range - bound trading, and the iron ore market is expected to maintain a weak shock in the short term [6]. Group 2: Price and Spread - The spot price fluctuated and declined [7]. - The spread between PB powder and Super Special powder, as well as between PB powder and Macfarlane powder, fluctuated at a low level [13][17]. - The 1 - 5 spread fluctuated and declined, and the 05 basis declined slightly [21]. - The screw - ore ratio fluctuated and rebounded, and the ore - coke ratio fluctuated at a high level [28]. Group 3: Supply - From December 1st to December 7th, the global iron ore shipment was 3368.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.4 tons. The Australian shipment was 1967.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 147.0 tons; the Brazilian shipment was 675.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 254.2 tons; the non - mainstream ore shipment was 1174.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 91 tons [5]. - The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2480.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 218.8 tons [5]. - As of December 5th, the daily average output of iron concentrate powder of 186 domestic mines was 45.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.09 tons, the capacity utilization rate was 58.09%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.68%, and the mine concentrate powder inventory was 75.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 tons [5]. - The shipping price index declined slightly [51]. Group 4: Demand - In the week of December 5th, the daily average hot metal output was 232.3 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.38 tons. With the deepening of the off - season of terminal demand, the number of steel mill overhauls increased, and the hot metal production still had room to decline [5]. - The steel mill blast furnace profit declined slightly [64]. Group 5: Inventory - The imported ore inventory increased slightly, the number of ships at the port decreased by 3 to 109, the port congestion decreased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate and remained at a medium - high level [5]. - The steel mill inventory fluctuated at a low level, and the demand for winter storage replenishment had not started [5][6]. - The port throughput declined from a high level, and the port inventory increased slightly [77]. - The Australian ore inventory continued to increase, and the Brazilian ore inventory declined from a high level [81]. - The coarse powder inventory fluctuated at a high level, and the lump ore inventory increased slightly [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 fluctuated upward, closing at 792.0 yuan/ton, up 1.41%. Currently, the iron ore demand side is weak and the fundamentals are under pressure overall. However, the decline in coking coal prices has brought some room for growth in steel enterprise profits, alleviating the pressure on iron ore. Technically, the support at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range of the iron ore market is strong, providing some support for the ore price, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation trend of the short - term ore price. The subsequent situation depends on whether there are signs of continued improvement in steel enterprise profits [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook for the Future 3.1.1 Market Review - On November 18, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract fluctuated upward, opening at 786.5 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 792 yuan/ton, a low of 781 yuan/ton, and closing at 792 yuan/ton, up 1.41%. The main iron ore outer - disk quotes were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 0 - 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to rise, and the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract expanded after the golden cross the previous day [7][9] 3.1.2 Outlook for the Future - In terms of supply, the shipments from Australia and Brazil have declined, and the arrivals have fallen from a high. Considering the decline in the cumulative shipments in the past four weeks, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to continue to decline, showing a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea last week has a limited short - term shipment volume and limited actual impact, but under the expectation of increased supply, the price of the far - month contract of iron ore may be suppressed. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output increased after six consecutive weeks of decline, currently at 235.88 tons. The increase in pig iron output last week was mainly due to the repair of steel production profits. The production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces have been significantly repaired in the past week, driving up the production enthusiasm of steel enterprises. The sustainability of profit repair needs further observation. For the five major steel products, both production and demand declined last week, and the decline in demand slowed down. Considering the cold weather, the demand for construction steel may continue to be suppressed. In terms of inventory, steel mills have returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the available inventory days at a relatively low level of 21 days this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and has now exceeded 150 million tons, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly in the future [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - According to Pengpai News, on November 18, the Chinese Foreign Ministry made solemn representations to Japan regarding the wrong remarks of Japanese Prime Minister Takamori Sanae on China - related issues. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output in October 2025 was 71.997 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; the cumulative crude steel output from January to October was 817.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price difference between high - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, sample steel mills' tax - free pig iron cost, blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, weekly output of five major steel products, and steel mills' inventory of five major steel products. The data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][29][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.13%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are poor. Coupled with the weakening market sentiment, steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.22%, also showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. At present, the industrial contradictions of hot-rolled coils remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices continue to be under pressure. However, there is still support at the cost end. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened, with a daily increase of 1.38%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. At present, the departure of arbitrage funds has driven the low-level rebound of ore prices. However, the demand for iron ore is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are still weak. Under the real - world logic, ore prices are still prone to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - From January to October this year, the national investment in water conservancy construction exceeded 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1009.47 billion yuan. A total of 46,000 various water conservancy projects were implemented, and 28,000 new water conservancy projects were started, including a number of major water conservancy projects [7]. - Beijing has completed its 2025 affordable housing construction task. As of the end of October, the planned construction and procurement of 50,000 sets (units) of affordable rental housing and the completion of 80,000 sets (units) of various affordable housing have been fully achieved [8]. - Handan issued an orange warning for heavy pollution weather and launched a Level II emergency response on November 12, 2025, which is expected to be lifted around November 16 [9]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price is 3,160 yuan, Tianjin is 3,210 yuan, and the national average is 3,231 yuan. For hot-rolled coils, the Shanghai price is 3,270 yuan, Tianjin is 3,200 yuan, and the national average is 3,309 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet is 2,930 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,130 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is 110 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,030 yuan [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 781 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 798 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia is 10.24 yuan, and from Brazil is 23.34 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) is 102.83 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) is 102.35 yuan [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,038 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The trading volume is 775,671 lots, an increase of 22,561 lots, and the open interest is 1,868,036 lots, a decrease of 55,665 lots [14]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract is 3,255 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.22%. The trading volume is 343,788 lots, an increase of 19,420 lots, and the open interest is 1,311,464 lots, a decrease of 15,428 lots [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 774.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.38%. The trading volume is 351,878 lots, an increase of 89,487 lots, and the open interest is 501,233 lots, a decrease of 29,119 lots [14]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventories (including rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories), iron ore inventories (including national 45-port iron ore inventories, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventories), and steel mill production situations (including 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates) [16][21][30] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of construction steel mills decreased by 40,500 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 136,600 tons. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level due to the poor fundamentals and weak market sentiment, although there is cost support. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - For hot-rolled coils, both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 54,000 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 175,900 tons. The industrial contradictions remain unresolved, and the inventory has increased again. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [38]. - For iron ore, the weak supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory has increased significantly. The demand for iron ore continues to be weak, and the supply pressure has not been relieved. Although arbitrage funds have driven the low - level rebound of ore prices, in the short term, ore prices are still prone to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The market sentiment has weakened, and the market has been fluctuating downward this week. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year-on-year. The port inventory has increased, while the steel mill inventory has slightly declined. The daily average pig iron output remains high but is expected to gradually decline in the future. The recommended operating strategy is to participate in the short - term bearish market [38]. Summary by Directory 1. Trend Review - **Iron Ore Main Contract and Spot Trends**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the market has been fluctuating downward this week. The prices of various iron ore spot products have changed. For example, the price of PB powder has dropped from 821 to 784, and the price of Super Special powder has dropped from 917 to 712 [9][12]. 2. Basis and Spread - **Iron Ore Futures - Spot Price Difference**: The main contract basis is 3.5, the 01 - 05 spread is 21.5, the pb - super special spread is 75, and the Brazilian coarse - pb spread is 6 [18]. - **Ratio of Rebar to Iron Ore**: The ratio of rebar to iron ore continues to be weak [21]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Iron Ore Supply**: This week, the weekly shipment of mainstream mines is 1950.3 tons, and the domestic mine capacity utilization rate is 60.66%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year - on - year [24]. - **International Ocean Freight**: The freight rate of iron ore from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 10.46 US dollars per ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 23.73 US dollars per ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 2046 [27]. - **Iron Ore Inventory - Imported Ore Inventory**: The port inventory is 14278.27 tons, the Australian ore inventory is 5869.73 tons, the Brazilian ore inventory is 5684 tons, the iron ore arrival volume is 2269.4 tons, and the trade ore inventory is 9208.11 tons [30]. - **Iron Ore Inventory - Steel Mill Inventory**: This week, the iron ore port inventory is 14278.27 tons, a week - on - week increase of 253.77 tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory is 8982.73 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.46 tons. The available days of the steel mill's imported iron ore are 21 days, unchanged from the previous week [31]. - **Iron Ore Demand**: This week, the daily average pig iron output is 240.95 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59 tons. The daily average port clearance volume has returned to normal after the holiday. The pig iron output remains high with strong resilience but is expected to gradually decline in the future [34]. 4. Future Outlook - The market sentiment has weakened, and the market has been fluctuating downward. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year - on - year. The port inventory has increased, while the steel mill inventory has slightly declined. The daily average pig iron output remains high but is expected to gradually decline. The recommended operating strategy is to participate in the short - term bearish market [38].

Group 1: Report Core View - The iron ore market rebounded slightly this week, and market sentiment improved. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year-on-year. The port inventory increased, while the steel mill inventory decreased. The daily average molten iron production remained high, and the demand for iron ore is resilient. The operation strategy is to participate in the short - term. [46] Group 2: Summary by Directory 1. Trend Review - The market sentiment warmed up, and iron ore rebounded from a low level. [9] - The price changes of iron ore spot varieties are as follows: PB powder rose from 784 to 821, Super Special powder rose from 712 to 917, Jinbuba powder rose from 754 to 904, Ba Hun rose from 821 to 845, Mike rose from 775 to 842, and Newman rose from 779 to 840. [13] 2. Basis and Spread - The iron ore futures - spot price spread situation: the main basis is - 6.5, 01 - 05 is 19.5, pb - super special is 72, and Ba Cu - pb is 9. The ratio of rebar to iron ore continued to be weak. [19][22] 3. Supply - Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The weekly shipment of mainstream mines was 1.9922 million tons this week. The utilization rate of domestic mine production capacity was 59.89%. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year - on - year. [28] - **International Freight**: The iron ore freight rate from Port Hedland to Qingdao is 9.37 US dollars/ton, and from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao (BCI - C3) is 23.98 US dollars/ton. The Baltic Dry Index is 1923. [31] - **Inventory - Imported Ore**: The port inventory is 140.245 million tons, the Australian ore inventory is 57.8043 million tons, the Brazilian ore inventory is 55.3653 million tons, the iron ore arrival volume is 22.694 million tons, and the trading ore inventory is 91.4492 million tons. [34] - **Inventory - Steel Mill**: The port inventory of iron ore this week is 140.245 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 242,200 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills is 90.4916 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 9.906 million tons. The available days of imported iron ore in steel mills are 21 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 4 days. [38] - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron production this week is 2.4154 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 27,000 tons. The daily average dredging volume remains at a relatively high level, and the molten iron production remains high, showing stronger resilience than expected. [41] 4. Outlook for the Future - The iron ore market rebounded slightly this week with improved market sentiment. The production of domestic and imported iron ore is at a relatively high level year - on - year. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill inventory decreased. The daily average molten iron production remained high, and the demand for iron ore is resilient. The operation strategy is to participate in the short - term. [46]

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