1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The cost support for steel prices has strengthened, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - **Supply**: The operating rate of electric furnaces has significantly increased. The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 1.953 million tons (+219,900 tons), and the weekly output of hot-rolled coils was 2.9526 million tons (-58,500 tons) [5]. - **Demand**: Steel demand has rebounded. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 1.7681 million tons (+785,800 tons), and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was 1.9536 million tons (+137,900 tons) [5]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory continued to accumulate, but the growth rate slowed down, while hot-rolled coil inventory remained at a high level. The total rebar inventory was 8.9417 million tons (+184,900 tons), the social inventory was 6.5455 million tons (+168,000 tons), and the steel mill inventory was 2.3962 million tons (+16,900 tons). The total hot-rolled coil inventory was 4.7159 million tons (-1,000 tons), the social inventory was 3.8231 million tons (+7,000 tons), and the steel mill inventory was 892,800 tons (-8,000 tons) [5]. - **Basis**: As of March 13, the basis of the rebar main contract was 108 yuan/ton (+6 yuan/ton), and the basis of the hot-rolled coil main contract was -25 yuan/ton (-25 yuan/ton) [5]. - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills was 41.13%, a 3.03% increase from the previous week, and at a low level compared to the same period last year. The molten iron output was 2.212 million tons, a decrease of 63,900 tons from the previous week. The blast furnace operating rate was 78.34%, a 0.63% increase from the previous week, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 82.29%, a 2.4% decrease from the previous week. The electric furnace operating rate was 57.34%, a 32.63% increase from the previous week, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 50.44%, a 29.73% increase from the previous week. Electric furnaces and blast furnaces have resumed production, with a significant increase in the electric furnace operating rate and an increase in short-process production. Rebar production has increased significantly, and it is expected to continue to rise. Demand continues to recover but remains at a low level. The resumption rate of downstream construction sites and the capital availability rate have increased compared to the previous week. As of March 11 (the 23rd day of the first lunar month), the resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide was 42.5%, a 19-percentage-point increase from the previous week and a 5.2-percentage-point decrease compared to the same period last year. The capital availability rate was 42.8%, a 7.4-percentage-point increase from the previous week and a 0.8-percentage-point decrease compared to the same period last year. Inventory continues to grow, but the growth rate has narrowed, and it is at a high level compared to the same period last year. Hot-rolled coil production has decreased and is at a low level compared to the same period last year. Demand has rebounded, and daily trading volume has increased significantly. Inventory is at a high level, with a slight decrease from the previous week, showing an inflection point. Steel exports are under pressure, with a cumulative export of 15.59 million tons from January to February, an 8% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]. 3.2螺纹热卷主要地区现货价格 (Spot Prices of Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils in Major Regions) As of March 13, the average spot price of rebar HRB400E 20MM in major cities nationwide was 3,339 yuan/ton, a 39-yuan/ton increase from the previous week. The average spot price of hot-rolled coils 4.75MM nationwide was 3,307 yuan/ton, a 42-yuan/ton increase from the previous week [8]. 3.3原料 (Raw Materials) - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke was 1,470 yuan/ton, the price of main coking coal in Luliang was 1,483 yuan/ton, and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 798 yuan/ton. The price of 61.5% PB powder increased by 34 yuan/ton compared to the previous week, while the prices of quasi-primary metallurgical coke and main coking coal remained unchanged [13]. - **Molten Iron Output and Electric Furnace Operating Rate**: Molten iron output has significantly decreased, while the electric furnace operating rate continues to increase [15]. 3.4钢厂盈利率 (Profitability Rate of Steel Mills) The profitability rate of steel mills has increased [20]. 3.5唐山高炉开工率 (Tangshan Blast Furnace Operating Rate) As of March 6, the Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 92.48%, an 8.27% increase from the previous week [25]. 3.6螺纹产量 (Rebar Production) As of March 13, rebar production increased by 219,900 tons compared to the previous week. In terms of process, long-process production increased by 46,700 tons, and short-process production increased by 173,200 tons [32]. 3.7热卷产量 (Hot-Rolled Coil Production) Hot-rolled coil production decreased by 58,500 tons compared to the previous week [31]. 3.8需求 (Demand) - **Rebar Demand**: As of March 13, the weekly average trading volume of rebar was 97,400 tons, and trading volume remained at a low level [40]. - **Hot-Rolled Coil Demand**: As of March 13, the weekly average trading volume of hot-rolled coils was 51,700 tons. The downstream cold-rolled production was 882,700 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous week, but at a high level compared to the same period last year [45]. 3.9主要钢材品种库存 (Inventory of Major Steel Products) As of March 13, the Tangshan billet inventory was 654,000 tons, a 57,000-ton increase from the previous week. The inventory of major steel products was 14.2294 million tons, a 202,000-ton increase from the previous week [48]. 3.10钢材出口 (Steel Exports) According to customs data, steel exports in December were 1.13 million tons, a 132,000-ton increase from the previous month. From January to December, the cumulative steel exports were 119 million tons, a 7.5% increase compared to the same period last year. Hot-rolled coil exports in December were 180,480 tons [58]. 3.11汽车产销 (Automobile Production and Sales) According to Steel Union data, automobile production in February was 1.672 million vehicles, a decrease of 777,900 vehicles from the previous month. Automobile sales were 1.805 million tons, a decrease of 541,500 tons from the previous month. New energy vehicle production in February was 694,000 vehicles, a decrease of 347,000 vehicles from the previous month. New energy vehicle sales were 765,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons from the previous month [62]. 3.12房地产数据 (Real Estate Data) From January to February, national real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 6.1 percentage points. Specifically, from January to February, the cumulative new housing construction area was 50.84 million square meters, a 23.1% decrease year-on-year. The housing completion area was 63.2 million square meters, a 27.9% decrease year-on-year. The sales area of newly built commercial housing was 92.93 million square meters, a 13.5% decrease year-on-year. The sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 20.2% year-on-year, with a decline of 7.6%. The cumulative capital available to development enterprises was 1.3 trillion yuan, a 16.5% decrease year-on-year [66].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the steel market entered a typical pre - Spring Festival operation mode with small price fluctuations and a marginal weakening in fundamentals. The market has prematurely entered a holiday state, with trading statistics suspended and inventory continuously accumulating. Raw material prices are under pressure, especially the iron ore price which has corrected from its high level [1]. - After the Spring Festival in 2026, the steel industry will face dual pressures of high inventory and weak demand. The demand for steel in the manufacturing industry supports the supply - demand balance of hot - rolled and cold - rolled products, but the demand for construction steel is weak due to the sluggish real estate market and slow resumption of work. On the supply side, the resumption of production is slow and the increase is limited due to low profits and order pressure. With significant inventory pressure and difficulty in destocking, although macro - policies provide support, the willingness for winter storage is low and speculative demand is lacking, so there is insufficient impetus for steel prices to rise. It is expected that the post - holiday market price will decline moderately, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery in mid - to late March [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Market situation: The market entered a pre - Spring Festival mode this week, with small price fluctuations, marginal weakening in fundamentals, suspended trading statistics, and continuous inventory accumulation. Raw material prices, especially iron ore, are under pressure [1]. - Outlook: After the Spring Festival in 2026, the steel industry faces high inventory and weak demand. Manufacturing steel demand supports hot - rolled and cold - rolled products, but construction steel demand recovers slowly. Supply - side production resumption is slow, inventory pressure is high, and steel prices are expected to decline moderately [1]. Fundamental Data Weekly Changes - Steel mill daily average hot metal output increased by 0.6 tons to 228.58 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.26% [2]. - Rebar steel mill inventory increased by 4.52 tons to 153.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.03% [2]. - Rebar social inventory increased by 39.52 tons to 365.92 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12.11% [2]. - Hot - rolled coil steel mill inventory increased by 1.5 tons to 78.75 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.94% [2]. - Hot - rolled coil social inventory increased by 2.12 tons to 280.45 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.76% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall contradiction in the iron ore industry chain is not significant. There is pressure on iron ore supply, but the overall market risk appetite has weakened, liquidity is poor, and prices have declined. It is recommended to observe cautiously before the holiday [2][4] - Currently, the supply and demand of iron ore are both weak, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Although the steel mill's profit is acceptable, the demand for terminal steel products has entered the pre - holiday off - season [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - The steel fundamentals are acceptable with certain support, and the current steel mill profit is acceptable with some room for production increase [7] - The price forecast range for iron ore is 770 - 820, with a current at - the - money option IV of 21.09% and a historical volatility percentile of 11.3% [8] - For inventory management, if there is spot inventory and one is worried about future inventory price decline, strategies include directly shorting iron ore futures to lock in profits (I2603, short, 25%, entry range 830 - 840) and selling call options to collect premiums (I2603 - C - 830, 30%, sell at high prices). For procurement management, if one needs to purchase in the future and is worried about price increases, strategies include directly going long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (I2603, long, 30%, entry range 780 - 790) and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2603 - P - 780, 40%, sell at high prices) [8] 3.2 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: On February 6, 2026, the iron - making cost per ton was 2436.56 yuan, the blast - furnace hot - rolled coil profit per ton was - 1 yuan, the blast - furnace rebar profit per ton was 63 yuan, the Jiangsu electric - furnace flat - electricity rebar profit per ton was - 95 yuan, the steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, and the iron - scrap price difference was - 100 yuan [9] - **Iron Ore Weekly Shipment Data**: On January 30, 2026, the global shipment volume was 3094.6 million tons, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2466.5 million tons, etc. [9] - **Iron Ore Demand Weekly Data**: On February 6, 2026, the daily average port clearance volume was 341.08 million tons, the daily average pig iron output was 228.58 million tons, etc. [10] - **Iron Ore Inventory Weekly Data**: On February 6, 2026, the 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 17140.71 million tons, the 45 - port trade ore ratio was 66.06%, etc. [11] 3.3 Supply - **Global Shipment Analysis**: Analyzed the global shipment volume of iron ore from multiple aspects such as seasonality, year - to - date cumulative value year - on - year, and comparison with historical data [13] - **Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis**: Studied the shipment volume of the four major iron ore mines from aspects like seasonality, year - to - date cumulative shipment volume difference, and over - seasonality [14][16] - **Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis**: Analyzed the shipment volume of non - mainstream mines, including seasonality, year - to - date cumulative value difference, over - seasonality, and the relationship with the iron ore price index [18][20][24] - **Arrival and Port Congestion Analysis**: Analyzed the arrival volume of 47 ports, the number of ships at ports, port congestion days, and the actual arrival volume [26][28] - **Capsize Shipping Analysis**: Studied the freight price of capesize ships, the proportion of freight in iron ore cost, ship speed, and the global weekly floating inventory of iron ore [30][32] - **Domestic Ore Supply Analysis**: Analyzed the daily average output of iron concentrate powder from 186 mining enterprises and the monthly output from 433 mining enterprises [34] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Pig Iron Analysis**: Analyzed the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises, including seasonality, the impact of blast - furnace maintenance on output, and the relationship between pig iron output over - seasonality and iron ore price [37] - **Steel Mill Profit Analysis**: Analyzed the production profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the guiding relationship between profit and future steel production [39][40] - **Downstream Steel Analysis** - **Rebar**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, short - process production ratio, price - cost relationship, etc. of rebar [51][53][55] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, and price difference of hot - rolled coils [60][62] - **Medium - thick Plate**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [64][65] - **Off - balance - sheet Steel**: Estimated the off - balance - sheet output and analyzed the combined inventory of on - balance - sheet and off - balance - sheet crude steel, as well as the output, inventory, and apparent demand of H - shaped steel, angle steel, galvanized coils, etc. [67][68][70] - **Export Analysis**: Analyzed the monthly export volume of steel, the port departure volume, export orders, and the export profit of hot - rolled coils [91][93] 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Port Inventory Analysis**: Analyzed the inventory of 45 ports, including the overall inventory, the inventory structure of different ore types, and the relationship between inventory and iron ore price [95][96] - **Other Inventory Analysis**: Analyzed the inventory of 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of steel mills' in - plant and floating in - transit iron ore, and the estimated inventory turnover days [112][113] 3.6 Valuation Analysis - **Basis and Term Structure**: Provided the iron ore warehouse receipt price table, including the cheapest spot price, converted futures price, basis of different contracts, and delivery profit of different positions. Also analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different contracts [115][116] - **Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio**: Analyzed the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio of different contracts [121][123] - **Coking Coal Ratio Analysis**: Analyzed the seasonality of the coking coal - iron ore price difference of different contracts and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore in terms of price [126][128] - **Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis**: Analyzed the iron - scrap price difference, the relationship between scrap steel cost - effectiveness and iron - scrap price difference, and the scrap steel consumption ratio of pure blast - furnace enterprises [130]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily decline of 0.29%, and the volume and open interest increased. Currently, both supply and demand of rebar are weakening, and the weak fundamental pattern remains unchanged. The steel price in the off - season continues to be under pressure, with the cost support being a relative positive factor. It is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.40%, the volume decreased and the open interest increased. At present, the supply of hot - rolled coil is at a high level, while the demand has weakened. The fundamentals are weak, and the hot - rolled coil price will still be under pressure to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the pressure caused by the intensification of the demand - weakening contradiction [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.73%, and the volume and open interest increased. Currently, the high inventory combined with the stable recovery of overseas shipments means that the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided, while the demand is weak. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of iron ore continue to weaken. It is expected that the iron ore price will still be under pressure to run weakly, and attention should be paid to the shipments of miners [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In January 2026, 1329 projects started nationwide, with a total investment of about 7330.51 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of investment were Guangdong, Fujian, and Sichuan, with total investments of 2985.79 billion yuan, 1408.64 billion yuan, and 401.24 billion yuan respectively [7]. - As of February 5, 14 car companies released their new - energy vehicle sales data for January 2026. BYD, Geely, and SAIC ranked in the top three in terms of monthly sales, with 210,100, 124,300, and 85,400 vehicles respectively. Eight car companies achieved year - on - year growth, with GAC Group having the largest increase of 162.90% and Seres having a growth rate of 140.33%. All 14 car companies showed a month - on - month decline, with BAIC New Energy having the largest decline [8]. - In late January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 21.28 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.935 million tons, a 2.2% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.15 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.741 million tons, a 3.0% decrease in daily output month - on - month; and 21.3 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.936 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month [9]. Spot Market - For rebar (HRB400E, 20mm), the Shanghai price was 3,190 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), the Tianjin price was 3,160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the national average price was 3,307 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). For hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm), the Shanghai price was 3,250 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), the Tianjin price was 3,160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the national average price was 3,287 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton). The price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160 yuan/ton (unchanged). The coil - rebar price difference was 60 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,030 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 765 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton), the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 772 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Australian freight was 8.35 yuan/ton (down 0.54 yuan/ton), the Brazilian freight was 23.96 yuan/ton (down 1.24 yuan/ton), the SGX swap (current month) was 102.50 (up 0.75), and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 102.25 (up 0.25) [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar active contract was 3,101 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.29%, the highest price was 3,113 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,086 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 681,405 lots (an increase of 67,315 lots), and the open interest was 1,847,671 lots (an increase of 49,444 lots) [14]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil active contract was 3,263 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.40%, the highest price was 3,278 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,255 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 283,875 lots (a decrease of 1,310 lots), and the open interest was 1,494,646 lots (an increase of 11,934 lots) [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore active contract was 768.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.73%, the highest price was 779.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 764.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 331,736 lots (an increase of 91,206 lots), and the open interest was 525,113 lots (an increase of 9,456 lots) [14]. Related Charts - The report presents charts related to steel inventory (including rebar inventory and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory), and steel - mill production (including blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability) [16][24][32] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand are seasonally weakening, and inventory is continuously accumulating. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 81,500 tons month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk, but the inventory level is significantly higher than the same lunar period last year, with limited pressure relief. The demand for rebar continues to be seasonally weak, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions have both shrunk significantly. Considering the lack of improvement in downstream industries, the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, which will continue to drag down the steel price. The relative positive factor is the post - holiday policy expectation. It is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [40]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has changed little, and the inventory has increased again. The production of plate mills has stabilized, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 50 tons month - on - month, and the supply pressure has not subsided. The demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased by 58,700 tons month - on - month, and the high - frequency daily transactions continue to operate at a low level. Although the high - level production of downstream cold - rolled products provides support for the demand of hot - rolled coil, there are hidden concerns about the demand. The hot - rolled coil price will still be under pressure to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has changed little, and the inventory continues to rise. Steel - mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore is running smoothly. The average daily pig - iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills decreased slightly last week. The demand for iron ore is expected to continue to be weak. The arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, and the shipments of overseas miners have continued to increase. The supply of overseas iron ore has stabilized, while the domestic supply is stable. Coupled with the high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided. It is expected that the iron ore price will still be under pressure to run weakly, and attention should be paid to the shipments of miners [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel futures market maintained a slightly stronger oscillating trend today, with the black - metal sector rebounding as a whole. However, the overall spot trading volume was generally weak, showing a slight improvement compared to yesterday [6]. - Last week, the production of the five major steel products accelerated, with the production of hot - rolled coils increasing faster than that of rebar. The total steel inventory accelerated the process of inventory accumulation, with rebar seeing inventory accumulation while hot - rolled coils were still in the process of destocking. The overall social inventory pressure was greater than the factory inventory [6]. - Recently, as the weather has turned cold, downstream construction sites have gradually shut down, leading to a decline in building material demand. Although steel exports have declined recently, there is still a demand for pre - holiday restocking in the manufacturing industry. The demand for hot - rolled coils is still increasing, performing better than the same period last year, and the pre - holiday demand is acceptable. For raw materials, there is still a rigid demand for restocking by steel mills, providing cost support [6]. - In February, steel mills will start production suspension and maintenance. The fundamental logic may gradually shift from restocking to winter storage. The winter demand will decline marginally, and the inventory will continue to accumulate, which also limits the further upward space of steel prices. It is expected that steel prices will lack fundamental drivers before the holiday and will continue to oscillate within a range following macro - economic sentiment. Overall, steel prices will still face pressure after the holiday [6]. - Today, there were market rumors that the Indonesian government proposed a large - scale production cut plan. Currently, Indonesian coal mines have suspended their export plans, driving up the prices of coking coal and coke, and the short - term market sentiment is strong. In the future, continue to pay attention to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro - economic and industrial policies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Rebar - **Futures**: RB05 was priced at 3110 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan from yesterday; RB10 was 3160 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; RB01 was 3182 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as RB01 - RB05 narrowing by 2 yuan to 81 yuan, and RB05 - RB10 widening by 2 yuan to - 50 yuan. The rebar profit on the futures market for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts all decreased, with the 05 - contract profit dropping by 20 yuan to - 168 yuan, the 10 - contract profit down 20 yuan to - 118 yuan, and the 01 - contract profit down 16 yuan to - 106 yuan [2]. - **Spot**: The prices of rebar in different regions remained mostly unchanged, with only the price of Tangshan Tanggang rebar dropping by 10 yuan to 3060 yuan/ton. The basis of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts in different regions also varied. The profit of rebar in different regions also changed, with the profit of Shandong rebar dropping by 106 yuan to - 430 yuan, and the profit of Tangshan rebar dropping by 8 yuan to - 306 yuan [2]. 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coils - **Futures**: HC05 was priced at 3274 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan from yesterday; HC10 was 3296 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; HC01 was 3323 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as HC01 - HC05 widening by 4 yuan to 49 yuan, and HC05 - HC10 narrowing by 1 yuan to - 22 yuan. The hot - rolled coil profit on the futures market for the 05, 10, and 01 contracts all decreased, with the 05 - contract profit dropping by 22 yuan to - 18 yuan, the 10 - contract profit down 19 yuan to 18 yuan, and the 01 - contract profit down 12 yuan to 26 yuan [2]. - **Spot**: The prices of hot - rolled coils in different regions remained unchanged. The basis of the 05, 10, and 01 contracts in different regions also varied. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions also changed, with the profit of Tianjin hot - rolled coils increasing by 1 yuan to - 385 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils dropping by 1 yuan to - 176 yuan [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Related Prices - The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3200 yuan (unchanged), Beijing Jingye rebar was 3130 yuan (down 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3260 yuan (unchanged), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3160 yuan (unchanged) [5]. 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: Before the holiday, follow the trend of coking coal and coke and maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [7]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2.3 Important Information - As of February 3, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 60.27%, a week - on - week increase of 0.59 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.18%, a week - on - week increase of 0.54 percentage points; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 55.71%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72 percentage points [9]. - Indonesian mining officials said on Tuesday that due to the Indonesian government's proposed large - scale production cut plan, Indonesian miners have suspended spot coal exports. The production quota issued by the Indonesian government to major miners last month was 40% - 70% lower than the 2025 level as part of the plan to boost coal prices. The main industry associations in Indonesia oppose this move, warning that it may lead to layoffs and mine closures. In early January 2026, the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia said that the Indonesian government may cut the coal production quota in 2026 to about 600 million tons. At the same time, Indonesia also plans to impose a tariff on coal exports in 2026 [10]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the basis, spreads, and profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils for different contracts, as well as the cash profits of different steel products in different regions and the cost of electric furnaces in East China [15][17][21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment has declined recently, but there are signs of stabilization after the decline in the futures market. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - news on the market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is priced at 3270 yuan, Beijing Jingye at 3130 yuan, Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3280 yuan (up 10 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3170 yuan [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Steel futures are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio on rallies and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to threaded steel spread [6]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - **Threaded Steel**: This week, the small - sample production of threaded steel was 199.55 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.25 tons. The estimated apparent demand was 185.52 tons (a 6% year - on - year decrease in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 4.82 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 6.32 tons, the social inventory increased by 7.71 tons, and the total inventory increased by 14.03 tons [8]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: This week, the production of hot - rolled coil was 305.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.95 tons. The estimated apparent demand was 309.96 tons (a 2.39% year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 4.20 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 0.11 tons, the social inventory decreased by 4.66 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 4.55 tons [9]. Relevant Attachments The report provides a series of charts, including those related to the basis of different contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil, price spreads between different contracts, the spread between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel, and various profit - related charts. The data sources for these charts are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [12][16][18].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil Daily Report [1] - Date: January 19, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03113636 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018817 [2] Group 2: Market Information - Spot Prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3260 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3150 yuan (-20), Shanghai Angang hot rolled coil is 3290 yuan (-10), Tianjin Hegang hot rolled coil is 3190 yuan (-10) [4] Group 3: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Core View - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile before the Spring Festival, but may fluctuate due to market sentiment. The recent decline in macro - sentiment may put pressure on steel prices [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Market sentiment has weakened, with a possible short - term slight correction and a continued volatile and weak trend [5] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [6] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7] Group 4: Important Information - China's industrial added value of large - scale industries in December increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a previous value of 4.80% and an expected value of 5% [8] - China's year - to - date urban fixed - asset investment in December decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with an expected value of - 3% and a previous value of - 2.60% [9] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report contains multiple figures showing various indicators such as rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits from 2022 to 2026 [14][16][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term steel price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but the upward space is limited due to factors such as increased iron - water production and demand pressure. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing up. The impact of subsequent policies on the export side needs to wait and see the actual implementation, and continue to pay attention to macro - news and other factors [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information (First Part) - Not provided Market Judgement (Second Part) - **Related Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3290 yuan (+400), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3160 yuan (+30), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3320 yuan (+40), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3160 yuan (+30) [4] - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, be cautious about chasing up [6] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold short positions on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - **Important Information** - In December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and has been in the 49% - 50% range for 10 consecutive months. The Asian and African manufacturing PMIs rose, while the European and American manufacturing PMIs declined [10] - From December 1 - 31, 2025, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative retail volume this year was 23.779 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The national passenger car manufacturer wholesale volume was 2.759 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 10% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 29.524 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9% [10] Relevant Attachments (Third Part) - Multiple graphs are provided, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [12][19][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 fluctuated upward, closing at 792.0 yuan/ton, up 1.41%. Currently, the iron ore demand side is weak and the fundamentals are under pressure overall. However, the decline in coking coal prices has brought some room for growth in steel enterprise profits, alleviating the pressure on iron ore. Technically, the support at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range of the iron ore market is strong, providing some support for the ore price, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation trend of the short - term ore price. The subsequent situation depends on whether there are signs of continued improvement in steel enterprise profits [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook for the Future 3.1.1 Market Review - On November 18, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract fluctuated upward, opening at 786.5 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 792 yuan/ton, a low of 781 yuan/ton, and closing at 792 yuan/ton, up 1.41%. The main iron ore outer - disk quotes were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 0 - 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to rise, and the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract expanded after the golden cross the previous day [7][9] 3.1.2 Outlook for the Future - In terms of supply, the shipments from Australia and Brazil have declined, and the arrivals have fallen from a high. Considering the decline in the cumulative shipments in the past four weeks, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to continue to decline, showing a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea last week has a limited short - term shipment volume and limited actual impact, but under the expectation of increased supply, the price of the far - month contract of iron ore may be suppressed. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output increased after six consecutive weeks of decline, currently at 235.88 tons. The increase in pig iron output last week was mainly due to the repair of steel production profits. The production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces have been significantly repaired in the past week, driving up the production enthusiasm of steel enterprises. The sustainability of profit repair needs further observation. For the five major steel products, both production and demand declined last week, and the decline in demand slowed down. Considering the cold weather, the demand for construction steel may continue to be suppressed. In terms of inventory, steel mills have returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the available inventory days at a relatively low level of 21 days this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and has now exceeded 150 million tons, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly in the future [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - According to Pengpai News, on November 18, the Chinese Foreign Ministry made solemn representations to Japan regarding the wrong remarks of Japanese Prime Minister Takamori Sanae on China - related issues. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output in October 2025 was 71.997 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; the cumulative crude steel output from January to October was 817.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price difference between high - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, sample steel mills' tax - free pig iron cost, blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, weekly output of five major steel products, and steel mills' inventory of five major steel products. The data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][29][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.13%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are poor. Coupled with the weakening market sentiment, steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.22%, also showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. At present, the industrial contradictions of hot-rolled coils remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices continue to be under pressure. However, there is still support at the cost end. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened, with a daily increase of 1.38%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. At present, the departure of arbitrage funds has driven the low-level rebound of ore prices. However, the demand for iron ore is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are still weak. Under the real - world logic, ore prices are still prone to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - From January to October this year, the national investment in water conservancy construction exceeded 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1009.47 billion yuan. A total of 46,000 various water conservancy projects were implemented, and 28,000 new water conservancy projects were started, including a number of major water conservancy projects [7]. - Beijing has completed its 2025 affordable housing construction task. As of the end of October, the planned construction and procurement of 50,000 sets (units) of affordable rental housing and the completion of 80,000 sets (units) of various affordable housing have been fully achieved [8]. - Handan issued an orange warning for heavy pollution weather and launched a Level II emergency response on November 12, 2025, which is expected to be lifted around November 16 [9]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price is 3,160 yuan, Tianjin is 3,210 yuan, and the national average is 3,231 yuan. For hot-rolled coils, the Shanghai price is 3,270 yuan, Tianjin is 3,200 yuan, and the national average is 3,309 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet is 2,930 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,130 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is 110 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,030 yuan [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 781 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 798 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia is 10.24 yuan, and from Brazil is 23.34 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) is 102.83 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) is 102.35 yuan [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,038 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The trading volume is 775,671 lots, an increase of 22,561 lots, and the open interest is 1,868,036 lots, a decrease of 55,665 lots [14]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract is 3,255 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.22%. The trading volume is 343,788 lots, an increase of 19,420 lots, and the open interest is 1,311,464 lots, a decrease of 15,428 lots [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 774.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.38%. The trading volume is 351,878 lots, an increase of 89,487 lots, and the open interest is 501,233 lots, a decrease of 29,119 lots [14]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventories (including rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories), iron ore inventories (including national 45-port iron ore inventories, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventories), and steel mill production situations (including 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates) [16][21][30] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of construction steel mills decreased by 40,500 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 136,600 tons. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level due to the poor fundamentals and weak market sentiment, although there is cost support. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - For hot-rolled coils, both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 54,000 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 175,900 tons. The industrial contradictions remain unresolved, and the inventory has increased again. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [38]. - For iron ore, the weak supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory has increased significantly. The demand for iron ore continues to be weak, and the supply pressure has not been relieved. Although arbitrage funds have driven the low - level rebound of ore prices, in the short term, ore prices are still prone to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].