2026年02月09日 周报 钢材：市场成交平淡，节前震荡为主 期货研究报告 丛燕飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015666 congyanfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：本周市场进入典型的春节前运行模式，价格小幅震荡，基本面呈现边际转弱的特 征。临近春节，市场已提前进入假期状态，市场成交统计暂停，库存持续累积。同时，原燃料价格也承压运 行，尤其铁矿石价格高位回调。 展望：2026年春节后钢材行业面临高库存与弱需求双重压力。制造业用钢需求韧性支撑热轧、冷轧供需 平衡，但建筑钢材受房地产低迷及复工缓慢影响，需求恢复乏力。供应端因低利润和订单压力，复产节奏偏 缓，增量有限。库存压力显著，去库难度大，虽宏观政策提供支撑，但冬储意愿低迷，投机需求缺失，钢价 上涨动力不足。预计节后市场价格重心温和下移，关注3月中下旬需求回暖情况。 风险提示：宏观政策、成材需求、钢材出口、钢厂利润、炉料成本支撑等。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 钢材 单位 最新一周 上一期 周度环比变化量 周度环比变化率 频率 钢厂日均铁水产量 万吨 228.58 227.98 0.6 0.26% 周度 螺纹钢厂库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall contradiction in the iron ore industry chain is not significant. There is pressure on iron ore supply, but the overall market risk appetite has weakened, liquidity is poor, and prices have declined. It is recommended to observe cautiously before the holiday [2][4] - Currently, the supply and demand of iron ore are both weak, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Although the steel mill's profit is acceptable, the demand for terminal steel products has entered the pre - holiday off - season [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - The steel fundamentals are acceptable with certain support, and the current steel mill profit is acceptable with some room for production increase [7] - The price forecast range for iron ore is 770 - 820, with a current at - the - money option IV of 21.09% and a historical volatility percentile of 11.3% [8] - For inventory management, if there is spot inventory and one is worried about future inventory price decline, strategies include directly shorting iron ore futures to lock in profits (I2603, short, 25%, entry range 830 - 840) and selling call options to collect premiums (I2603 - C - 830, 30%, sell at high prices). For procurement management, if one needs to purchase in the future and is worried about price increases, strategies include directly going long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (I2603, long, 30%, entry range 780 - 790) and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2603 - P - 780, 40%, sell at high prices) [8] 3.2 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: On February 6, 2026, the iron - making cost per ton was 2436.56 yuan, the blast - furnace hot - rolled coil profit per ton was - 1 yuan, the blast - furnace rebar profit per ton was 63 yuan, the Jiangsu electric - furnace flat - electricity rebar profit per ton was - 95 yuan, the steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, and the iron - scrap price difference was - 100 yuan [9] - **Iron Ore Weekly Shipment Data**: On January 30, 2026, the global shipment volume was 3094.6 million tons, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2466.5 million tons, etc. [9] - **Iron Ore Demand Weekly Data**: On February 6, 2026, the daily average port clearance volume was 341.08 million tons, the daily average pig iron output was 228.58 million tons, etc. [10] - **Iron Ore Inventory Weekly Data**: On February 6, 2026, the 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 17140.71 million tons, the 45 - port trade ore ratio was 66.06%, etc. [11] 3.3 Supply - **Global Shipment Analysis**: Analyzed the global shipment volume of iron ore from multiple aspects such as seasonality, year - to - date cumulative value year - on - year, and comparison with historical data [13] - **Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis**: Studied the shipment volume of the four major iron ore mines from aspects like seasonality, year - to - date cumulative shipment volume difference, and over - seasonality [14][16] - **Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis**: Analyzed the shipment volume of non - mainstream mines, including seasonality, year - to - date cumulative value difference, over - seasonality, and the relationship with the iron ore price index [18][20][24] - **Arrival and Port Congestion Analysis**: Analyzed the arrival volume of 47 ports, the number of ships at ports, port congestion days, and the actual arrival volume [26][28] - **Capsize Shipping Analysis**: Studied the freight price of capesize ships, the proportion of freight in iron ore cost, ship speed, and the global weekly floating inventory of iron ore [30][32] - **Domestic Ore Supply Analysis**: Analyzed the daily average output of iron concentrate powder from 186 mining enterprises and the monthly output from 433 mining enterprises [34] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Pig Iron Analysis**: Analyzed the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises, including seasonality, the impact of blast - furnace maintenance on output, and the relationship between pig iron output over - seasonality and iron ore price [37] - **Steel Mill Profit Analysis**: Analyzed the production profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the guiding relationship between profit and future steel production [39][40] - **Downstream Steel Analysis** - **Rebar**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, short - process production ratio, price - cost relationship, etc. of rebar [51][53][55] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, and price difference of hot - rolled coils [60][62] - **Medium - thick Plate**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [64][65] - **Off - balance - sheet Steel**: Estimated the off - balance - sheet output and analyzed the combined inventory of on - balance - sheet and off - balance - sheet crude steel, as well as the output, inventory, and apparent demand of H - shaped steel, angle steel, galvanized coils, etc. [67][68][70] - **Export Analysis**: Analyzed the monthly export volume of steel, the port departure volume, export orders, and the export profit of hot - rolled coils [91][93] 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Port Inventory Analysis**: Analyzed the inventory of 45 ports, including the overall inventory, the inventory structure of different ore types, and the relationship between inventory and iron ore price [95][96] - **Other Inventory Analysis**: Analyzed the inventory of 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of steel mills' in - plant and floating in - transit iron ore, and the estimated inventory turnover days [112][113] 3.6 Valuation Analysis - **Basis and Term Structure**: Provided the iron ore warehouse receipt price table, including the cheapest spot price, converted futures price, basis of different contracts, and delivery profit of different positions. Also analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different contracts [115][116] - **Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio**: Analyzed the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio of different contracts [121][123] - **Coking Coal Ratio Analysis**: Analyzed the seasonality of the coking coal - iron ore price difference of different contracts and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore in terms of price [126][128] - **Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis**: Analyzed the iron - scrap price difference, the relationship between scrap steel cost - effectiveness and iron - scrap price difference, and the scrap steel consumption ratio of pure blast - furnace enterprises [130]

产业矛盾累积，钢矿承压走弱 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 5 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.29%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供需两端均走弱，基本面弱势格局未变，淡季钢价继续承压，相 对利好则是成本支撑，预计走势延续低位震荡运行为主，关注假期累库 情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.40%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷供应高位，而需求有所走弱，基本面表现偏弱，热卷价格仍将 承压低位震荡运行，且需谨防需求走弱矛盾激化带来压力，关 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 02 月 04 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 | | | | 螺纹 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货(元/吨) | | | | | | 今日 | | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | | RB05 | 3110 | 3099 | 11 | HC05-RB05 | 164 | 166 | -2 | | RB10 | 3160 | 3151 | 9 | HC10-RB10 | 136 | 135 | J | | RB01 | 16TE | 3182 | 9 | HC01-RB01 | 132 | 128 | র্ব | | RB01-RB05 | 81 | 83 | -2 | RB10-RB01 | -31 | -31 | 0 | | RB05-RB10 | -50 | -52 | 2 | | | | | | 05合约螺纹盘面利润 | -168 | -148 | -20 | RB05/105 | 3.98 | 3.99 | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile before the Spring Festival. The market sentiment has declined recently, but there are signs of stabilization after the decline in the futures market. Attention should be paid to the impact of macro - news on the market, as well as coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Spot Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is priced at 3270 yuan, Beijing Jingye at 3130 yuan, Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3280 yuan (up 10 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3170 yuan [4]. Market Judgement - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Steel futures are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend [6]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio on rallies and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to threaded steel spread [6]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [7]. - **Important Information** - **Threaded Steel**: This week, the small - sample production of threaded steel was 199.55 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.25 tons. The estimated apparent demand was 185.52 tons (a 6% year - on - year decrease in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 4.82 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 6.32 tons, the social inventory increased by 7.71 tons, and the total inventory increased by 14.03 tons [8]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: This week, the production of hot - rolled coil was 305.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.95 tons. The estimated apparent demand was 309.96 tons (a 2.39% year - on - year increase in the lunar calendar), a week - on - week decrease of 4.20 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 0.11 tons, the social inventory decreased by 4.66 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 4.55 tons [9]. Relevant Attachments The report provides a series of charts, including those related to the basis of different contracts of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil, price spreads between different contracts, the spread between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel, and various profit - related charts. The data sources for these charts are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [12][16][18].

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Black Metal Daily Report - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil Daily Report [1] - Date: January 19, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [2] - Futures Practitioner Certificate Number: F03113636 [2] - Investment Consulting Certificate Number: Z0018817 [2] Group 2: Market Information - Spot Prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3260 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3150 yuan (-20), Shanghai Angang hot rolled coil is 3290 yuan (-10), Tianjin Hegang hot rolled coil is 3190 yuan (-10) [4] Group 3: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies Core View - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile before the Spring Festival, but may fluctuate due to market sentiment. The recent decline in macro - sentiment may put pressure on steel prices [5] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Market sentiment has weakened, with a possible short - term slight correction and a continued volatile and weak trend [5] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [6] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7] Group 4: Important Information - China's industrial added value of large - scale industries in December increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a previous value of 4.80% and an expected value of 5% [8] - China's year - to - date urban fixed - asset investment in December decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, with an expected value of - 3% and a previous value of - 2.60% [9] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report contains multiple figures showing various indicators such as rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits from 2022 to 2026 [14][16][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term steel price will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, but the upward space is limited due to factors such as increased iron - water production and demand pressure. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about chasing up. The impact of subsequent policies on the export side needs to wait and see the actual implementation, and continue to pay attention to macro - news and other factors [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information (First Part) - Not provided Market Judgement (Second Part) - **Related Prices**: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3290 yuan (+400), Beijing Jingye rebar is 3160 yuan (+30), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3320 yuan (+40), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3160 yuan (+30) [4] - **Trading Strategy** - **Unilateral**: Maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, be cautious about chasing up [6] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold short positions on the hot - rolled coil to rebar spread [7] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [8] - **Important Information** - In December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and has been in the 49% - 50% range for 10 consecutive months. The Asian and African manufacturing PMIs rose, while the European and American manufacturing PMIs declined [10] - From December 1 - 31, 2025, the national passenger car market retail volume was 2.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. The cumulative retail volume this year was 23.779 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 4%. The national passenger car manufacturer wholesale volume was 2.759 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 10% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 29.524 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 9% [10] Relevant Attachments (Third Part) - Multiple graphs are provided, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil prices, basis, spreads, and profits, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [12][19][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 18, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 fluctuated upward, closing at 792.0 yuan/ton, up 1.41%. Currently, the iron ore demand side is weak and the fundamentals are under pressure overall. However, the decline in coking coal prices has brought some room for growth in steel enterprise profits, alleviating the pressure on iron ore. Technically, the support at the lower edge of the previous oscillation range of the iron ore market is strong, providing some support for the ore price, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation trend of the short - term ore price. The subsequent situation depends on whether there are signs of continued improvement in steel enterprise profits [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Outlook for the Future 3.1.1 Market Review - On November 18, the iron ore futures main 2601 contract fluctuated upward, opening at 786.5 yuan/ton, reaching a high of 792 yuan/ton, a low of 781 yuan/ton, and closing at 792 yuan/ton, up 1.41%. The main iron ore outer - disk quotes were flat compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port increased by 0 - 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to rise, and the red column of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract expanded after the golden cross the previous day [7][9] 3.1.2 Outlook for the Future - In terms of supply, the shipments from Australia and Brazil have declined, and the arrivals have fallen from a high. Considering the decline in the cumulative shipments in the past four weeks, the subsequent arrival volume is expected to continue to decline, showing a pattern of high in the front and low in the back. The first shipment of iron ore from Simandou in Guinea last week has a limited short - term shipment volume and limited actual impact, but under the expectation of increased supply, the price of the far - month contract of iron ore may be suppressed. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output increased after six consecutive weeks of decline, currently at 235.88 tons. The increase in pig iron output last week was mainly due to the repair of steel production profits. The production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces have been significantly repaired in the past week, driving up the production enthusiasm of steel enterprises. The sustainability of profit repair needs further observation. For the five major steel products, both production and demand declined last week, and the decline in demand slowed down. Considering the cold weather, the demand for construction steel may continue to be suppressed. In terms of inventory, steel mills have returned to the state of replenishing inventory on demand, with the available inventory days at a relatively low level of 21 days this year. The port inventory has continued to accumulate and has now exceeded 150 million tons, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to accumulate slightly in the future [10][11] 3.2 Industry News - According to Pengpai News, on November 18, the Chinese Foreign Ministry made solemn representations to Japan regarding the wrong remarks of Japanese Prime Minister Takamori Sanae on China - related issues. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's crude steel output in October 2025 was 71.997 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%; the cumulative crude steel output from January to October was 817.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price difference between high - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, sample steel mills' tax - free pig iron cost, blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, weekly output of five major steel products, and steel mills' inventory of five major steel products. The data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][29][34]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated at a low level, with a daily increase of 0.13%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. Under the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are poor. Coupled with the weakening market sentiment, steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated, with a daily increase of 0.22%, also showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. At present, the industrial contradictions of hot-rolled coils remain unresolved, inventory has increased again, and prices continue to be under pressure. However, there is still support at the cost end. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore strengthened, with a daily increase of 1.38%, showing an increase in volume and a decrease in open interest. At present, the departure of arbitrage funds has driven the low-level rebound of ore prices. However, the demand for iron ore is weakening, while the supply remains at a high level. The fundamentals of the iron ore market are still weak. Under the real - world logic, ore prices are still prone to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - From January to October this year, the national investment in water conservancy construction exceeded 1 trillion yuan, reaching 1009.47 billion yuan. A total of 46,000 various water conservancy projects were implemented, and 28,000 new water conservancy projects were started, including a number of major water conservancy projects [7]. - Beijing has completed its 2025 affordable housing construction task. As of the end of October, the planned construction and procurement of 50,000 sets (units) of affordable rental housing and the completion of 80,000 sets (units) of various affordable housing have been fully achieved [8]. - Handan issued an orange warning for heavy pollution weather and launched a Level II emergency response on November 12, 2025, which is expected to be lifted around November 16 [9]. Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price is 3,160 yuan, Tianjin is 3,210 yuan, and the national average is 3,231 yuan. For hot-rolled coils, the Shanghai price is 3,270 yuan, Tianjin is 3,200 yuan, and the national average is 3,309 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet is 2,930 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap is 2,130 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is 110 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap is 1,030 yuan [10]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports is 781 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate powder is 798 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia is 10.24 yuan, and from Brazil is 23.34 yuan. The SGX swap (current month) is 102.83 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) is 102.35 yuan [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract is 3,038 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The trading volume is 775,671 lots, an increase of 22,561 lots, and the open interest is 1,868,036 lots, a decrease of 55,665 lots [14]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract is 3,255 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.22%. The trading volume is 343,788 lots, an increase of 19,420 lots, and the open interest is 1,311,464 lots, a decrease of 15,428 lots [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract is 774.0 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.38%. The trading volume is 351,878 lots, an increase of 89,487 lots, and the open interest is 501,233 lots, a decrease of 29,119 lots [14]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventories (including rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories), iron ore inventories (including national 45-port iron ore inventories, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventories), and steel mill production situations (including 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates) [16][21][30] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of construction steel mills decreased by 40,500 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 136,600 tons. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate at a low level due to the poor fundamentals and weak market sentiment, although there is cost support. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - For hot-rolled coils, both supply and demand are weakening. The weekly output decreased by 54,000 tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 175,900 tons. The industrial contradictions remain unresolved, and the inventory has increased again. In the short term, the price will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production restrictions [38]. - For iron ore, the weak supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the inventory has increased significantly. The demand for iron ore continues to be weak, and the supply pressure has not been relieved. Although arbitrage funds have driven the low - level rebound of ore prices, in the short term, ore prices are still prone to decline under pressure. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [39].