Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas liquidity: The nomination of Wash has triggered hawkish expectations, and the divergence in expectations for US monetary policy has intensified, suppressing the risk appetite of the global capital market and causing increased volatility in US stocks and precious metals [11]. - Domestic market: Liquidity is tightening seasonally approaching the Spring Festival, so short - term observation is recommended. In the long - term, the policy support attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged, and the main idea is to buy on dips [11]. - Trading strategy: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term due to the medium - to - low valuation level and long - term discount of IM; hold IF long positions for 6 months as a new round of interest rate cut cycle has started and high - dividend assets are expected to benefit [13]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Important news**: The US plans to launch a $12 billion mineral reserve program; the 2026 No. 1 Central Document promotes the combination of AI and agriculture; Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT - 5.3 Codex are released; the traditional Chinese medicine industry policy is implemented; the central bank conducts an 800 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on February 4, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan [11]. - **Economic and corporate earnings**: In December 2025, industrial added value increased by 5.2% year - on - year, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 0.9%, and fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.13% month - on - month; the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3; M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 growth was 8.5%; social financing increment was 2.2075 trillion yuan; exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year; in the US, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was 4.4% [11]. - **Interest rate and credit environment**: This week, the 10Y Treasury bond rate and credit bond rate both declined slightly, the credit spread widened slightly, and liquidity tightened approaching the year - end [11]. - **Trading strategy**: Hold a small amount of IM long positions in the long - term; hold IF long positions for 6 months [13]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Stock index performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 1.27% to 4065.58, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 2.11% to 13906.73, etc. [16]. - **Futures contract performance**: All major futures contracts, such as IF, IH, IC, and IM, declined to varying degrees [17]. 3. Economic and Corporate Earnings - **Economic data**: In Q4 2025, the actual GDP growth rate was 4.5%; in January, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.3; in December 2025, the consumption growth rate was 0.9%, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year; the investment growth rate was - 3.8% [35][38][41]. - **Corporate earnings**: In the Q3 2025 report, the year - on - year growth rate of operating income was 1.24%, and the year - on - year growth rate of net profit was 3.89% [44]. 4. Interest Rate and Credit Environment - **Interest rate**: The 10Y Treasury bond rate and 3 - year AA - corporate bond rate trends are presented [48]. - **Credit environment**: In December 2025, M1 growth was 3.8%, M2 growth was 8.2%, and the social financing increment was 2.2075 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 646.2 billion yuan [60]. 5. Capital Flow - **Inflow**: This month, about 110.4 billion shares of new equity - oriented funds were established, and the new margin trading balance in the two markets was about 139.9 billion yuan, with the latest balance reaching 2.664067 trillion yuan, a new high [67][68]. - **Outflow**: This month, major shareholder share sales remained at a relatively high level, and the number of IPO approvals was 10 [72]. 6. Valuation - **P/E ratio (TTM)**: The P/E ratio of the Shanghai 50 is 11.64, the CSI 300 is 14.08, the CSI 500 is 36.92, and the CSI 1000 is 49.18 [77]. - **P/B ratio (LF)**: The P/B ratio of the Shanghai 50 is 1.28, the CSI 300 is 1.48, the CSI 500 is 2.54, and the CSI 1000 is 2.63 [77].

Group 1 - As of October 23, 2025, 20 listed companies have seen brokerages appear among their top ten circulating shareholders, with a total holding value of approximately 49.63 billion yuan [1][2] - Notable companies with brokerage holdings exceeding 1 billion yuan include Guangqi Technology, Cangge Mining, Xiangnong Chip, Shenhuo Co., Longjing Environmental Protection, and Furan Energy [2][4] - Brokerages have shown increased interest in sectors such as mechanical equipment and non-ferrous metals, particularly in investment opportunities related to controllable nuclear fusion, gold, and copper [3][4] Group 2 - Furan Energy reported a year-on-year increase in both revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with brokerages such as China Merchants Securities and Dongfang Securities increasing their holdings [1][3] - Cangge Mining and Minsida have also seen slight increases in brokerage holdings, with China Merchants Securities holding 15.82 million shares of Cangge Mining, valued at 9.23 billion yuan [2][3] - The mechanical equipment sector is currently attracting attention due to the capital expenditure expansion phase in controllable nuclear fusion, with analysts highlighting the potential for core companies involved in project construction [4]

Group 1 - The macro growth factor continues to rise, while inflation indicators show a weakening rebound, with domestic CPI turning negative at -0.4% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.9%, indicating persistent internal demand issues [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are driving upward global liquidity expectations, benefiting Asian equity markets, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 5.94% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.31% [4][9] - The A-share market shows a preference for growth styles, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.48%, while small-cap indices outperform large-cap blue chips [4] Group 2 - Recommendations for asset allocation include favoring high-grade credit bonds in the bond market, adjusting duration flexibly, and focusing on bank and insurance sector movements [5] - In the overseas equity market, the report suggests monitoring interest rate-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar and significantly raised interest rate cut expectations [5] - For gold, it is recommended to increase allocations to gold and silver as they are core assets during the interest rate cut cycle, with expectations for Shanghai gold to break previous highs [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall liquidity environment remains supportive for market valuation recovery and structural trends, with a significant decrease in average daily trading volume in the A-share market [56] - The A-share valuation levels have increased, with the price-to-earnings ratio rising to 50.38 times and the price-to-book ratio reaching 5.60 times, suggesting that market expectations for future corporate earnings may be overly optimistic [60] - The report highlights that the earnings expectations for A-shares are weaker than historical averages, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.3% and revenue growth rate of 5.9% [61]

Group 1: Price Performance - The latest price of London Gold is 3335.50 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest price of London Silver is 37.73 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest price of London Platinum is 1335.00 with a change of -18.00 [1] - The latest price of London Palladium is 1126.00 with a change of -14.00 [1] - The latest price of WTI Crude Oil is 62.80 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest price of LME Copper is 9757.00 with a change of -7.50 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 97.85 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest exchange rate of Euro to US Dollar is 1.17 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest exchange rate of British Pound to US Dollar is 1.36 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest exchange rate of US Dollar to Japanese Yen is 147.16 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest yield of US 10 - year TIPS is 1.95 with a change of 0.00 [1] Group 2: Trading Data - The latest COMEX silver inventory is 15786.61 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SHFE silver inventory is 1138.43 with a change of -3.13 [1] - The latest gold ETF holding is 965.37 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest silver ETF holding is 15071.31 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SGE silver inventory is 1368.95 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SGE gold deferred - fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [1] - The latest SGE silver deferred - fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [1]

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3304.30, with a change of -12.20 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 37.92, with a change of -0.19 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 1397.00, with a change of -9.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1246.00, with a change of 1.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 70.00, with a change of 0.79 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 9775.50, with a change of 17.50 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is not provided, with no change data [2] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 1208.09, with a change of 3.22 [2] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 955.37, with a change of -0.86 [2] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15149.90, with a change of -24.02 [2] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is not provided, with no change data [2] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1, with a change of 0.00 [2] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1, with a change of 0.00 [2] Precious Metal Ratios - The latest precious metal ratio data is 99.97, with a change of 1.05 [10] - Another ratio data is 1.14, with a change of -0.01 [10] - Another ratio data is 1.32, with a change of -0.01 [10] - Another ratio data is 149.53, with a change of 1.06 [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the metal industry is expected to see steady profit growth in 2024 and the first quarter of 2025, with gold, rare earths, and copper leading the sectors, while industry valuations are low and dividend returns are improving [1] - The performance of the colored ETF and its constituent stocks, such as Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, is positively influenced by the sentiment boost from the research report [1] - Recent US-China tariff negotiations have exceeded expectations, leading to a return to fundamentals for the colored sector, with tungsten prices rising due to quota reductions, while gold is under pressure from a decrease in safe-haven sentiment [1] Group 2 - The report from CITIC Securities suggests focusing on investment opportunities in gold, rare earths, copper, and aluminum due to favorable market conditions [1] - The analysis from Huachuang Securities highlights that the reform in the public fund industry may enhance the competitiveness of niche products, indirectly benefiting the ecosystem of thematic ETFs [1] - The performance of related stocks such as Jintian Copper and Zijin Mining is expected to be influenced by the anticipated benefits from the easing of export restrictions and rising overseas prices [1]