Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Report Core View - In the long - term, with supply constraints, the high industry profit is not a factor limiting the rise of aluminum prices. Short - term price increases require resonance of positive macro and strong micro - consumption. In the current off - season, there is a small increase in social inventory, and long - term long opportunities can be considered after short - term pullbacks. For alumina, the current price is undervalued, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the replenishment behavior of electrolytic aluminum plants is hard to sustain. [6][7][8] Summary According to Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On October 30, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,060 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 135 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [1] Aluminum Futures - On October 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,290 yuan/ton, closed at 21,245 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 21,360 yuan/ton and a low of 21,210 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,592 lots, and the open interest was 275,967 lots. [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of October 30, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 619,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 66,418 tons, up 374 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 459,525 tons, down 3,225 tons from the previous trading day. [2] Alumina Spot Price - On October 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,845 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,015 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,025 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 319 US dollars/ton. [2] Alumina Futures - On October 30, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,875 yuan/ton, closed at 2,816 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.98%, with a high of 2,879 yuan/ton and a low of 2,803 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 436,078 lots, and the open interest was 392,755 lots. [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 30, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,800 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,700 tons. [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,905 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 5 yuan/ton. [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the long - term, with supply constraints, high profit is not a limiting factor for price increase. In the short - term, price increase needs positive macro and strong consumption. In the current off - season, social inventory has a small increase, and it is expected to accumulate slightly in July. Even after accumulation, the inventory is still at a historical low level, and delivery risks should be long - term vigilant. [6] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina is low, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing forward alumina due to rich profits and winter storage demand. The market activity has increased, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. The cost of the northern ore supply is still tight, and the import ore is slightly declining. The reduction of ore price does not improve the alumina smelting loss, and the ex - factory price is under greater pressure. [7][8] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Bullish on aluminum with caution, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution. [9] - **Arbitrage**: Long the near - term and short the far - term in Shanghai aluminum. [9]

Core Insights - The automotive industry in China generated revenue of 59,193 billion yuan from January to July 2025, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase, while costs also rose by 8% to 52,056 billion yuan, resulting in a profit of 2,737 billion yuan, which is a modest increase of 0.9% year-on-year [1][3] - The profit margin for the automotive industry stands at 4.6%, which is lower than the average profit margin of 5.9% for downstream industrial enterprises, indicating a decline from the 4.8% margin recorded in the first half of 2025 [1][3] - In July 2025, the automotive industry reported revenue of 8,275 billion yuan, a 5% year-on-year increase, but profits fell by 17% to 293 billion yuan, leading to a profit margin of 3.5%, which is a significant drop from 4.4% in July 2024 [1][3] Automotive Industry Performance - The overall profit performance of the automotive industry in 2024 was weak, with a sales profit margin of only 4.3%, significantly below historical averages [3] - The sales profit margin for the automotive industry reached a recent low of 3.5% in July 2025, while the average for January to July 2025 was 4.6%, which is still considered a historical low [3] Economic Policies and Market Dynamics - Local governments are actively promoting "new energy" policies, which have effectively stimulated domestic demand, particularly through trade-in programs for consumer goods, including automobiles [1] - The central government is focused on stabilizing fuel vehicle consumption and promoting the scrapping and updating of vehicles, which is expected to improve the overall market conditions for the automotive industry [1] Industry Comparisons - The automotive industry's profit margin remains lower than that of other consumer goods, indicating that its recovery and profitability improvements are lagging behind other sectors [1] - The overall industrial sector saw a stable increase in revenue, with major industrial enterprises achieving a total revenue of 78.07 trillion yuan from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.3% [5] Profitability Metrics - The average single vehicle revenue in the automotive industry was 327,000 yuan, with a single vehicle profit of 15,000 yuan during the first seven months of 2025 [5] - The automotive industry's profit structure is under pressure, with a notable decline in profit margins compared to previous years, particularly in the context of rising costs and competitive pressures [1][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral [4] - Arbitrage: Long position in SHFE aluminum futures [4] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term variability of US tariffs causes aluminum price fluctuations, and the unpredictability of US policy disturbances should be vigilant. The social inventory is rapidly declining, and the spot premium is firm. The supply side has no negative factors, but the sustainability of consumption may change in June. As the industry profit is high, it is difficult for the aluminum price to break through upwards without unexpected positive stimuli, and the risk of cost collapse should be watched [3]. - For alumina, the spot price is strong while the futures price is weak, with the futures deeply discounted to the spot. The warrant inventory has dropped to 140,000 tons and may continue to decline. Even if the Axis mine stops production completely, there will be no shortage of bauxite supply throughout the year. The industry profit has recovered significantly, and the production of previously shut - down projects is likely to resume, and the social inventory is expected to stop falling and rebound soon [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Price and Inventory - Aluminum spot: On May 29, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,380 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the Central Plains A00 aluminum price was 20,310 yuan/ton; the Foshan A00 aluminum price was 20,230 yuan/ton [1]. - Aluminum futures: On May 29, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,115 yuan/ton, closed at 20,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton or 0.25% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 168,323 lots, an increase of 34,429 lots, and the open interest was 207,900 lots, an increase of 4,339 lots [1]. - Aluminum inventory: As of May 29, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 511,000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory was 375,075 tons, a decrease of 2,250 tons from the previous trading day [1]. Alumina Price and Inventory - Alumina spot: On May 29, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,260 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton. 5,000 tons of alumina in Guizhou were traded at 3,350 yuan/ton [2][3]. - Alumina futures: On May 29, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,985 yuan/ton, closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton or - 1.36% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 798,647 lots, a decrease of 244,681 lots, and the open interest was 352,989 lots, a decrease of 18,319 lots [2]. - Alumina warrant inventory: It has dropped to 140,000 tons and may continue to decline [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Silicon manganese: Oscillating [2][5] - Silicon iron: Oscillating [2][5] Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - **Silicon Manganese**: This week, market sentiment was pessimistic, with silicon manganese futures prices showing an oscillating downward trend. As of Friday, the main silicon manganese contract closed at 5,796 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.66%. Spot prices remained stable, with downstream procurement mainly for rigid demand and a relatively quiet market. Supply - the开工 rate of 187 independent silicon manganese enterprises was 41.59%, a decrease of 2.63% from last week, and the daily output was 26,580 tons, a decrease of 365 tons. Last week's national silicon manganese output was 186,100 tons, a 1.35% decrease from the previous week. Demand - the weekly demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products was 126,700 tons, a 0.34% increase from last week. Affected by industry profits, silicon manganese output continued to decline, while iron - water output increased month - on - month, indicating resilient demand. With sufficient production capacity, output can quickly increase once profits improve. Low manganese ore port inventories support alloy costs, so attention should be paid to the supply side of manganese ore [3]. - **Silicon Iron**: This week, silicon iron futures prices oscillated. As of Friday, the main silicon iron contract closed at 5,640 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 0.49%. Spot prices were weakly stable, with general overall transactions. As of Friday, the ex - factory price of 72 - grade silicon iron natural lumps in the main production areas was 5,500 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade silicon iron was 6,050 - 6,100 yuan/ton. Supply - the silicon iron enterprise's开工 rate was 30.91%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.48%, and the output was 98,900 tons, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. Demand - the weekly demand for silicon iron in five major steel products was 20,600 tons, a 0.08% increase from last week. Overall, despite improving demand, silicon iron output declined from its high due to losses, while manufacturer inventories increased month - on - month and downstream enterprise inventories remained low. With relatively loose production capacity, prices will be suppressed by weak demand, and attention should be paid to the impact of industrial policies on the black sector [4]. Strategy - Silicon manganese: Oscillating [5] - Silicon iron: Oscillating [5] Cross - Variety and Cross - Period - Cross - variety: None [6] - Cross - period: None [6]