津巴布韦暂停锂矿出口！13企受益7家预增，锂圈乐翻 不管是路上跑的新能源汽车，还是家里存电的储能电站，甚至你手里天天攥着的手机电池，都离不开一种被叫做"白色石油"的宝 贝——锂。它藏在产业链的最深处，平时没人特意留意，可一旦供应出点风吹草动，整个新能源圈都得跟着抖三抖，连带着A股 的锂矿板块，都能瞬间掀起一波热闹行情。 新华社2026年2月25日官方发布消息，非洲第一、全球第四大锂资源国津巴布韦，直接宣布紧急暂停所有锂原矿与锂精矿出口， 就连已经在途的货物都不让出境。这记突如其来的"急刹车"，直接打乱了全球锂供应格局，要知道海关总署数据显示，我国每年 15.5%的锂精矿都来自这里，相当于每6吨进口锂矿，就有1吨是津巴布韦送来的。 消息一出，市场画风格外有趣：下游电池厂愁眉苦脸找原料，上游锂矿企业却偷偷乐开了花。据上海有色网权威统计，全球共有 13家锂矿公司直接受益于这次禁令，其中更有7家已经提前发布年报预增公告，业绩亮眼到晃眼。别人还在为原料发愁，这批企 业已经站在风口上，准备稳稳接住这波行业红利，妥妥的人生赢家剧本。 7家年报预增！业绩亮瞎眼，股民笑出声 比受益更让人开心的是，13家企业里有7家已经发布20 ...

广州期货交易所数据显示，碳酸锂期货一度大涨12%，触及187700元;澳大利亚锂矿股同步走高，悉尼 上市的PLS Group盘中最大涨幅7.6%，Mineral Resources上涨6%。 根据津巴布韦矿业部消息，该国自本周三起全面禁止锂精矿出口。矿业部长Polite Kambamura表示，此 举旨在促进本土加工产业发展，同时打击非法矿石出口行为。他强调，禁令将持续至矿企完全符合政府 规定要求为止。据美国地质调查局统计，这个非洲国家去年贡献了全球约10%的锂矿石产量。 大宗商品咨询机构CRU集团分析师Cameron Hughes指出："锂价持续走高与非法出口活动猖獗，或是推 动此次政策调整的关键因素。"他将此次禁令与刚果(金)此前实施的钴精矿出口限制相提并论。 全球主要锂生产国津巴布韦暂停锂精矿出口后，市场担忧这一电池关键原料的全球供应将趋紧，锂价与 相关个股应声大涨。 为规范大宗商品交易秩序，津巴布韦政府已承诺严厉打击非法矿产贸易，并推出一系列措施鼓励下游产 业发展。目前，中国华友钴业(603799.SH)和中矿资源集团(002738.SZ)正积极响应该政策导向，在该国 推进相关矿产加工项目。 期货频道 ...

广州期货交易所数据显示，碳酸锂期货一度大涨12%，触及187700元;澳大利亚锂矿股同步走高，悉尼 上市的PLS Group盘中最大涨幅7.6%，Mineral Resources上涨6%。 根据津巴布韦矿业部消息，该国自本周三起全面禁止锂精矿出口。矿业部长Polite Kambamura表示，此 举旨在促进本土加工产业发展，同时打击非法矿石出口行为。他强调，禁令将持续至矿企完全符合政府 规定要求为止。据美国地质调查局统计，这个非洲国家去年贡献了全球约10%的锂矿石产量。 大宗商品咨询机构CRU集团分析师Cameron Hughes指出："锂价持续走高与非法出口活动猖獗，或是推 动此次政策调整的关键因素。"他将此次禁令与刚果(金)此前实施的钴精矿出口限制相提并论。 智通财经APP获悉，全球主要锂生产国津巴布韦暂停锂精矿出口后，市场担忧这一电池关键原料的全球 供应将趋紧，锂价与相关个股应声大涨。 为规范大宗商品交易秩序，津巴布韦政府已承诺严厉打击非法矿产贸易，并推出一系列措施鼓励下游产 业发展。目前，中国华友钴业(603799.SH)和中矿资源集团(002738.SZ)正积极响应该政策导向，在该国 推进相关矿产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a situation of "strong reality, strong expectation", and the operation should still focus on buying on dips. The polysilicon market may continue to be weak, and the industrial silicon market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [1][3][13] Summary by Related Catalogs Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures had a certain degree of correction today. The main 2605 contract fell 3.02% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 161,940 yuan/ton [1] - **Core Logic**: The exchange's regulatory intervention last night cooled the market sentiment, and long - position funds took profits. The recent sharp rise was due to the "rush to export" logic of battery enterprises before the VAT export tax rebate rate of battery products was lowered in April, and the high prosperity of terminal demand [1] - **Technical Analysis**: From the perspective of overall capital sentiment, it is still controlled by bulls, but the recent sharp decline in positions needs to be vigilant against the risk of trampling caused by the concentrated realization of long - position profit - taking. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current lithium carbonate main 2605 contract is a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is still a red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 142,300 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", operate by buying on dips. Avoid short - selling at the top or chasing high directly. Find good entry positions based on the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" intraday [1] - **Follow - up Focus**: The actual progress of battery exports in the first quarter, the recovery of new energy vehicle sales data after subsidy extension, and the actual impact of geopolitical situation on lithium ore supply [2][6] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures continued the downward trend today. The main 2605 contract fell 0.12% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 48,945 yuan/ton [3] - **Core Logic**: After the market supervision department interviewed the photovoltaic association and leading enterprises, the silicon material price will return to cost game. Currently, the supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high, so the futures price may continue to be under pressure [3] - **Technical Analysis**: The position of polysilicon futures continued to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current polysilicon 2605 contract is a red line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 58,300 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Polysilicon may continue to be weak [8] - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy direction of "anti - involution" [9] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly today. The 2605 contract rose 1.39% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 8,755 yuan/ton [10] - **Core Logic**: Today's fluctuating rise was a short - covering rally from the perspective of capital sentiment, still controlled by bears. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, downstream procurement is sluggish, and inventory is at a three - year high, lacking upward drive but with certain cost support. There is no substantial positive or negative impact to drive the futures price to break through the current fluctuation range, so it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures continued to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current industrial silicon 2605 contract is a green line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,980 yuan/ton [13] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Currently in the middle of the fluctuation range, it is recommended to short on rebounds. In the long - term, pay attention to the transmission effect of polysilicon's return to cost pricing on industrial silicon. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [13] - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy direction of "anti - involution" [14]

Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from August 11 to August 15, with lithium carbonate and palm oil leading gains, while the European shipping index saw the largest decline [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 2.71%, crude oil by 0.71%, and lithium carbonate rose by 12.92% [1] - The black metal sector saw slight fluctuations, with coking coal up by 0.24% and iron ore by 0.32%, while coking coal decreased by 0.26% [1] Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - The recent suspension of operations at the Jiangxiawo mine due to expired mining licenses has raised concerns about lithium carbonate supply, leading to a significant price increase [2] - Supply disruptions continue with the suspension of operations at the Qinghai Zhongxin Guoan salt lake, although the impact from the Yichun lithium mine is currently limited due to inventory levels [3] - In June, Chile exported approximately 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, with exports increasing by 43% month-on-month in July [3] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Trends - In July, the demand for new energy vehicles and lithium batteries showed a slowdown in growth, but remains at high levels, with production and sales of new energy vehicles reaching 1.243 million and 1.262 million units, respectively [3] - Domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly to 142,256 tons, with a week-on-week reduction of 162 tons [4] - The overall supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate has not significantly improved, and prices are expected to remain volatile until supply disruptions are resolved [4] Group 4: Future Market Expectations - Analysts suggest that supply-side factors will be the market focus, with emotional fluctuations driven by news rather than fundamental changes [5] - The next critical date for the market will be September 30, when a reserve verification report is due, which may influence production changes at smelting plants [5] - Long-term projections indicate that overseas lithium mines are raising production targets for FY2026, which may exert pressure on lithium carbonate prices [5]