Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a situation of "strong reality, strong expectation", and the operation should still focus on buying on dips. The polysilicon market may continue to be weak, and the industrial silicon market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [1][3][13] Summary by Related Catalogs Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures had a certain degree of correction today. The main 2605 contract fell 3.02% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 161,940 yuan/ton [1] - **Core Logic**: The exchange's regulatory intervention last night cooled the market sentiment, and long - position funds took profits. The recent sharp rise was due to the "rush to export" logic of battery enterprises before the VAT export tax rebate rate of battery products was lowered in April, and the high prosperity of terminal demand [1] - **Technical Analysis**: From the perspective of overall capital sentiment, it is still controlled by bulls, but the recent sharp decline in positions needs to be vigilant against the risk of trampling caused by the concentrated realization of long - position profit - taking. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current lithium carbonate main 2605 contract is a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is still a red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 142,300 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", operate by buying on dips. Avoid short - selling at the top or chasing high directly. Find good entry positions based on the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" intraday [1] - **Follow - up Focus**: The actual progress of battery exports in the first quarter, the recovery of new energy vehicle sales data after subsidy extension, and the actual impact of geopolitical situation on lithium ore supply [2][6] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures continued the downward trend today. The main 2605 contract fell 0.12% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 48,945 yuan/ton [3] - **Core Logic**: After the market supervision department interviewed the photovoltaic association and leading enterprises, the silicon material price will return to cost game. Currently, the supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high, so the futures price may continue to be under pressure [3] - **Technical Analysis**: The position of polysilicon futures continued to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current polysilicon 2605 contract is a red line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 58,300 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Polysilicon may continue to be weak [8] - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy direction of "anti - involution" [9] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly today. The 2605 contract rose 1.39% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 8,755 yuan/ton [10] - **Core Logic**: Today's fluctuating rise was a short - covering rally from the perspective of capital sentiment, still controlled by bears. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, downstream procurement is sluggish, and inventory is at a three - year high, lacking upward drive but with certain cost support. There is no substantial positive or negative impact to drive the futures price to break through the current fluctuation range, so it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures continued to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current industrial silicon 2605 contract is a green line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,980 yuan/ton [13] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Currently in the middle of the fluctuation range, it is recommended to short on rebounds. In the long - term, pay attention to the transmission effect of polysilicon's return to cost pricing on industrial silicon. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [13] - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy direction of "anti - involution" [14]

Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from August 11 to August 15, with lithium carbonate and palm oil leading gains, while the European shipping index saw the largest decline [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 2.71%, crude oil by 0.71%, and lithium carbonate rose by 12.92% [1] - The black metal sector saw slight fluctuations, with coking coal up by 0.24% and iron ore by 0.32%, while coking coal decreased by 0.26% [1] Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - The recent suspension of operations at the Jiangxiawo mine due to expired mining licenses has raised concerns about lithium carbonate supply, leading to a significant price increase [2] - Supply disruptions continue with the suspension of operations at the Qinghai Zhongxin Guoan salt lake, although the impact from the Yichun lithium mine is currently limited due to inventory levels [3] - In June, Chile exported approximately 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, with exports increasing by 43% month-on-month in July [3] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Trends - In July, the demand for new energy vehicles and lithium batteries showed a slowdown in growth, but remains at high levels, with production and sales of new energy vehicles reaching 1.243 million and 1.262 million units, respectively [3] - Domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly to 142,256 tons, with a week-on-week reduction of 162 tons [4] - The overall supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate has not significantly improved, and prices are expected to remain volatile until supply disruptions are resolved [4] Group 4: Future Market Expectations - Analysts suggest that supply-side factors will be the market focus, with emotional fluctuations driven by news rather than fundamental changes [5] - The next critical date for the market will be September 30, when a reserve verification report is due, which may influence production changes at smelting plants [5] - Long-term projections indicate that overseas lithium mines are raising production targets for FY2026, which may exert pressure on lithium carbonate prices [5]