Group 1: Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from August 11 to August 15, with lithium carbonate and palm oil leading gains, while the European shipping index saw the largest decline [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil fell by 2.71%, crude oil by 0.71%, and lithium carbonate rose by 12.92% [1] - The black metal sector saw slight fluctuations, with coking coal up by 0.24% and iron ore by 0.32%, while coking coal decreased by 0.26% [1] Group 2: Lithium Market Dynamics - The recent suspension of operations at the Jiangxiawo mine due to expired mining licenses has raised concerns about lithium carbonate supply, leading to a significant price increase [2] - Supply disruptions continue with the suspension of operations at the Qinghai Zhongxin Guoan salt lake, although the impact from the Yichun lithium mine is currently limited due to inventory levels [3] - In June, Chile exported approximately 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, with exports increasing by 43% month-on-month in July [3] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Trends - In July, the demand for new energy vehicles and lithium batteries showed a slowdown in growth, but remains at high levels, with production and sales of new energy vehicles reaching 1.243 million and 1.262 million units, respectively [3] - Domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased slightly to 142,256 tons, with a week-on-week reduction of 162 tons [4] - The overall supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate has not significantly improved, and prices are expected to remain volatile until supply disruptions are resolved [4] Group 4: Future Market Expectations - Analysts suggest that supply-side factors will be the market focus, with emotional fluctuations driven by news rather than fundamental changes [5] - The next critical date for the market will be September 30, when a reserve verification report is due, which may influence production changes at smelting plants [5] - Long-term projections indicate that overseas lithium mines are raising production targets for FY2026, which may exert pressure on lithium carbonate prices [5]