Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily decline of 0.29%, and the volume and open interest increased. Currently, both supply and demand of rebar are weakening, and the weak fundamental pattern remains unchanged. The steel price in the off - season continues to be under pressure, with the cost support being a relative positive factor. It is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.40%, the volume decreased and the open interest increased. At present, the supply of hot - rolled coil is at a high level, while the demand has weakened. The fundamentals are weak, and the hot - rolled coil price will still be under pressure to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the pressure caused by the intensification of the demand - weakening contradiction [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.73%, and the volume and open interest increased. Currently, the high inventory combined with the stable recovery of overseas shipments means that the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided, while the demand is weak. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of iron ore continue to weaken. It is expected that the iron ore price will still be under pressure to run weakly, and attention should be paid to the shipments of miners [5]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In January 2026, 1329 projects started nationwide, with a total investment of about 7330.51 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of investment were Guangdong, Fujian, and Sichuan, with total investments of 2985.79 billion yuan, 1408.64 billion yuan, and 401.24 billion yuan respectively [7]. - As of February 5, 14 car companies released their new - energy vehicle sales data for January 2026. BYD, Geely, and SAIC ranked in the top three in terms of monthly sales, with 210,100, 124,300, and 85,400 vehicles respectively. Eight car companies achieved year - on - year growth, with GAC Group having the largest increase of 162.90% and Seres having a growth rate of 140.33%. All 14 car companies showed a month - on - month decline, with BAIC New Energy having the largest decline [8]. - In late January 2026, key steel enterprises produced 21.28 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.935 million tons, a 2.2% decrease in daily output month - on - month; 19.15 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.741 million tons, a 3.0% decrease in daily output month - on - month; and 21.3 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.936 million tons, a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month [9]. Spot Market - For rebar (HRB400E, 20mm), the Shanghai price was 3,190 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), the Tianjin price was 3,160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the national average price was 3,307 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan/ton). For hot - rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm), the Shanghai price was 3,250 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), the Tianjin price was 3,160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the national average price was 3,287 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan/ton). The price of Tangshan billet was 2,930 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160 yuan/ton (unchanged). The coil - rebar price difference was 60 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,030 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton) [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 765 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan/ton), the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 772 yuan/ton (unchanged), the Australian freight was 8.35 yuan/ton (down 0.54 yuan/ton), the Brazilian freight was 23.96 yuan/ton (down 1.24 yuan/ton), the SGX swap (current month) was 102.50 (up 0.75), and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 102.25 (up 0.25) [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar active contract was 3,101 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.29%, the highest price was 3,113 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,086 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 681,405 lots (an increase of 67,315 lots), and the open interest was 1,847,671 lots (an increase of 49,444 lots) [14]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil active contract was 3,263 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.40%, the highest price was 3,278 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,255 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 283,875 lots (a decrease of 1,310 lots), and the open interest was 1,494,646 lots (an increase of 11,934 lots) [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore active contract was 768.5 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.73%, the highest price was 779.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 764.0 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 331,736 lots (an increase of 91,206 lots), and the open interest was 525,113 lots (an increase of 9,456 lots) [14]. Related Charts - The report presents charts related to steel inventory (including rebar inventory and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including 45 - port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory), and steel - mill production (including blast - furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability) [16][24][32] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand are seasonally weakening, and inventory is continuously accumulating. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 81,500 tons month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk, but the inventory level is significantly higher than the same lunar period last year, with limited pressure relief. The demand for rebar continues to be seasonally weak, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions have both shrunk significantly. Considering the lack of improvement in downstream industries, the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, which will continue to drag down the steel price. The relative positive factor is the post - holiday policy expectation. It is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [40]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has changed little, and the inventory has increased again. The production of plate mills has stabilized, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 50 tons month - on - month, and the supply pressure has not subsided. The demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased by 58,700 tons month - on - month, and the high - frequency daily transactions continue to operate at a low level. Although the high - level production of downstream cold - rolled products provides support for the demand of hot - rolled coil, there are hidden concerns about the demand. The hot - rolled coil price will still be under pressure to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern has changed little, and the inventory continues to rise. Steel - mill production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of iron ore is running smoothly. The average daily pig - iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills decreased slightly last week. The demand for iron ore is expected to continue to be weak. The arrival of iron ore at domestic ports has rebounded from a low level, and the shipments of overseas miners have continued to increase. The supply of overseas iron ore has stabilized, while the domestic supply is stable. Coupled with the high inventory, the supply pressure of iron ore has not subsided. It is expected that the iron ore price will still be under pressure to run weakly, and attention should be paid to the shipments of miners [41].

Core Viewpoint - The article predicts a 25% growth in sales for Chinese new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers by 2025, aligning with the growth expectations set for the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. Group 1: Market Predictions - The end of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in December 2025 is expected to lead to a recovery period in January 2026, with some consumers likely to make purchases in December to benefit from the policy [2]. - January 2023 saw a decline of 8% in new energy vehicle sales due to the withdrawal of subsidies, while January 2024 experienced a positive growth despite the anticipated policy changes [2]. - The late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival and contributions from exports have positively influenced January's sales performance [2]. Group 2: Sales Data - According to the latest data from the Passenger Car Association, manufacturers with sales exceeding 10,000 units in December accounted for 93% of the total new energy passenger vehicle wholesale sales for that month [3]. - Preliminary data for January indicates that these manufacturers achieved sales of 830,000 units, leading to an estimated total of 900,000 new energy passenger vehicles sold nationwide in January, reflecting a 1% year-on-year growth [4][3]. Group 3: Leading Manufacturers - Key manufacturers such as GAC Aion, XPeng Motors, and Great Wall Motors reported significant sales figures in January, with GAC Aion leading at 21,635 units sold [8]. - Other notable performances include XPeng Motors with 20,011 units, Great Wall Motors with 18,019 units, and FAW Hongqi with 8,265 units [8]. - The total estimated sales for manufacturers exceeding 10,000 units in January amounted to 832,461, representing 93% of the total market share for that month [8].

进入2026年1月后，新能源汽车购置税开始减半征收，车企购 置税兜底政策也随之结束。另外，1月各地具体的购车补贴细 则尚未全部出台，导致消费者存在观望情绪，影响了车市终端 销售情况。 作者：王帅国 封图：图虫创意 2月1日，各家车企相继发布了1月销量。从整体上看，汽车行业实现2026年"开门红"，大多数车 企1月销量同比取得正增长，但这一同比增长是由于2025年春节在1月，去年同期的新车销售基数 较低。 环比数据上，大多数车企1月销量下滑明显，主要原因在于2025年12月新能源汽车还享受购置税 全额减免政策，同时车企为年底冲量，在12月出台了许多其他优惠政策。进入2026年1月后，新 能源汽车购置税开始减半征收，车企购置税兜底政策也随之结束。另外，1月各地具体的购车补贴 细则尚未全部出台，导致消费者存在观望情绪，影响了车市终端销售情况。 广汽集团1月销量为11.66万辆，同比增长18.47%，环比下滑37.79%。其中自主品牌销量超4.9 万辆，同比增长87.58%；海外销量同比增长68.59%。分品牌来看，昊铂+埃安销量2.16万辆， 同比大增171.63%；传祺品牌销量2.77万辆，同比增长51.06%； ...

Core Insights - The sales of pure electric large three-row SUVs reached 54,518 units in December 2025, marking an 18% month-on-month increase and the first time monthly sales surpassed 50,000 units, setting a new historical high [1] - The sales of plug-in hybrid models were 49,760 units, while fuel-powered and range-extended models sold 38,123 and 37,919 units respectively [1] - In the second half of 2025, the sales of pure electric large three-row SUVs grew by 351% year-on-year, driven by models such as NIO's new ES8 and Ledo's L90, while range-extended vehicle sales saw a year-on-year decline of 5.6% [1] Sales Performance - Pure electric large three-row SUVs achieved a record monthly sales figure, leading all powertrain types for four consecutive months [1] - The significant growth in sales is attributed to the introduction of new models in the market [1] - The performance of range-extended vehicles contrasts with the strong growth of pure electric models, indicating a shift in consumer preference [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant growth in sales of pure electric large three-row SUVs, which reached a record high of 54,518 units in December 2025, marking an 18% month-on-month increase and the first time monthly sales surpassed 50,000 units [1] - The sales of pure electric large three-row SUVs have maintained the top position among all powertrain types for four consecutive months [1] - In the second half of 2025, the sales of pure electric large three-row SUVs are expected to grow by 351% year-on-year, driven by new models such as NIO's ES8 and Lido's L90 [1] - In contrast, the sales of range-extended vehicles saw a year-on-year decline of 5.6% [1] Sales Performance - December 2025 sales figures: - Pure electric large three-row SUVs: 54,518 units - Plug-in hybrid sales: 49,760 units - Fuel vehicle sales: 38,123 units - Range-extended sales: 37,919 units [1] - The pure electric large three-row SUV segment has shown a consistent upward trend, achieving a historical milestone in monthly sales [1]

Core Insights - The overall vehicle sales for 20 A and H-share listed automotive manufacturers in December 2025 totaled 2.2255 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.64% and a month-on-month decrease of 6.77% [10][11] - In December 2025, 16 companies reported sales of approximately 1.2532 million new energy vehicles (NEVs), marking a year-on-year increase of 1.99% and a penetration rate of about 58% [10][11] Group 1: Overall Vehicle Sales - The total vehicle sales for the 20 listed companies in December 2025 were 2.2255 million units, down 7.64% year-on-year and down 6.77% month-on-month [10][11] - For the entire year of 2025, these companies sold over 23.5 million vehicles, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.86% [11] - Companies such as Jianghuai Automobile, Seres, and Jiangling Automobile saw an acceleration in sales growth in December compared to November, while companies like Shuguang and Zhongtong Bus experienced a slowdown [10][11] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Sales - In December 2025, the total sales of NEVs reached approximately 1.2532 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 1.99% and a month-on-month decrease of 8.93% [5][15] - The NEV penetration rate for December was about 57.96%, a decrease of 0.85 percentage points from November [15] - BYD, SAIC Group, and Geely were the top three companies in NEV sales for December, with significant growth observed in companies like BAIC Blue Valley and Jianghuai Automobile, which reported growth rates exceeding 70% [7][17] Group 3: Company-Specific Performance - BYD led the sales in December with 420,398 units sold, although this represented an 18.34% decline year-on-year [4][14] - SAIC Group and Changan Automobile followed with sales of 399,449 units and 254,843 units, respectively, with Changan showing a slight year-on-year increase of 1.66% [4][14] - Geely's December sales increased by 12.74% year-on-year, totaling 236,817 units, while GAC Group experienced a significant decline of 33.82% in sales [4][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a situation of "strong reality, strong expectation", and the operation should still focus on buying on dips. The polysilicon market may continue to be weak, and the industrial silicon market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [1][3][13] Summary by Related Catalogs Carbonate Lithium - **Market Trend**: The lithium carbonate futures had a certain degree of correction today. The main 2605 contract fell 3.02% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 161,940 yuan/ton [1] - **Core Logic**: The exchange's regulatory intervention last night cooled the market sentiment, and long - position funds took profits. The recent sharp rise was due to the "rush to export" logic of battery enterprises before the VAT export tax rebate rate of battery products was lowered in April, and the high prosperity of terminal demand [1] - **Technical Analysis**: From the perspective of overall capital sentiment, it is still controlled by bulls, but the recent sharp decline in positions needs to be vigilant against the risk of trampling caused by the concentrated realization of long - position profit - taking. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current lithium carbonate main 2605 contract is a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is still a red ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 142,300 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the context of "strong reality, strong expectation", operate by buying on dips. Avoid short - selling at the top or chasing high directly. Find good entry positions based on the "First K Breakthrough Method" or "Three - Line Resonance Method" intraday [1] - **Follow - up Focus**: The actual progress of battery exports in the first quarter, the recovery of new energy vehicle sales data after subsidy extension, and the actual impact of geopolitical situation on lithium ore supply [2][6] Polysilicon - **Market Trend**: The polysilicon futures continued the downward trend today. The main 2605 contract fell 0.12% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 48,945 yuan/ton [3] - **Core Logic**: After the market supervision department interviewed the photovoltaic association and leading enterprises, the silicon material price will return to cost game. Currently, the supply and demand of polysilicon are both weak, and the industry inventory is at a three - year high, so the futures price may continue to be under pressure [3] - **Technical Analysis**: The position of polysilicon futures continued to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current polysilicon 2605 contract is a red line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 58,300 yuan/ton [7] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Polysilicon may continue to be weak [8] - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy direction of "anti - involution" [9] Industrial Silicon - **Market Trend**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated strongly today. The 2605 contract rose 1.39% compared with the previous trading day's closing price, reporting 8,755 yuan/ton [10] - **Core Logic**: Today's fluctuating rise was a short - covering rally from the perspective of capital sentiment, still controlled by bears. Fundamentally, the supply and demand of industrial silicon are both weak, downstream procurement is sluggish, and inventory is at a three - year high, lacking upward drive but with certain cost support. There is no substantial positive or negative impact to drive the futures price to break through the current fluctuation range, so it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term [13] - **Technical Analysis**: The overall position of industrial silicon futures continued to decline. The 5 - minute level cycle of the current industrial silicon 2605 contract is a green line, red ribbon, and red ladder, and the overnight 2 - hour level cycle is a green ladder line, with the long - short dividing water level at 8,980 yuan/ton [13] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Currently in the middle of the fluctuation range, it is recommended to short on rebounds. In the long - term, pay attention to the transmission effect of polysilicon's return to cost pricing on industrial silicon. Intraday operations can refer to the Band Winner indicator in the 8:30 morning live broadcast [13] - **Follow - up Focus**: The follow - up policy direction of "anti - involution" [14]

Core Insights - The article highlights the performance of several A-share listed automotive companies in the new energy vehicle (NEV) sector for December 2025 and the entire year, with BYD leading the market in both monthly and annual sales [1][2] - BYD's total NEV sales reached 4.6024 million units in 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.73%, with pure electric vehicle sales at 2.2567 million units, up 27.86% [1] - In contrast, Tesla reported a total delivery of 1.64 million units for 2025, a decrease of 8.6% year-on-year, indicating that BYD has surpassed Tesla to become the world's top seller of electric vehicles [1] Summary by Company - **BYD** - December sales: 420,400 units, down 18.34% year-on-year - Annual sales: 4,602,400 units, up 7.73% year-on-year [2] - **SAIC Motor** - December sales: 143,800 units, down 6.65% year-on-year - Annual sales: 1,642,800 units, up 33.12% year-on-year [2] - **Changan Automobile** - December sales: 115,100 units, up 26.02% year-on-year - Annual sales: 1,110,000 units, up 51.10% year-on-year [2] - **Seres** - December sales: 61,000 units, up 63.40% year-on-year - Annual sales: 472,300 units, up 10.63% year-on-year [2] - **Great Wall Motors** - December sales: 38,900 units, down 7.91% year-on-year - Annual sales: 403,700 units, up 25.44% year-on-year [2] - **Beijing Automotive Blue Valley** - December sales: 35,200 units, up 114.56% year-on-year - Annual sales: 209,600 units, up 84.06% year-on-year [2]

Group 1 - The overall retail and wholesale data for passenger cars in December 2025 showed a decline, with retail down 19% year-on-year and wholesale down 23% year-on-year, but this did not affect the steady growth of new energy vehicle (NEV) sales [2] - BYD achieved a December sales figure of 420,398 units and a total annual sales of 4,602,436 units, maintaining its position as the global leader in NEV sales [7] - SAIC-GM-Wuling's annual NEV sales exceeded 1 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 31.9%, and its NEV penetration rate increased from 50% to 61% [10] Group 2 - Leap Motor delivered 60,423 vehicles in December 2025, achieving a total annual delivery of 596,555 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 103% [13] - Xiaomi's December sales exceeded 50,000 units, contributing to an annual total of over 400,000 units, successfully meeting its sales target [14] - NIO delivered 48,135 vehicles in December, marking a historical high with a year-on-year growth of 54.6%, and an annual total of 326,028 vehicles [17] Group 3 - Li Auto delivered 44,246 vehicles in December, bringing its total annual sales to 406,343 units [20] - Xpeng Motors achieved a record annual delivery of 429,445 vehicles, exceeding its revised target of 380,000 units, with December sales of 37,508 units [22] - Deep Blue's December sales reached 30,999 units, contributing to an annual total of over 330,000 units [26] Group 4 - Zeekr delivered 30,267 vehicles in December, achieving a total annual sales of over 224,000 units, with a year-on-year growth [28] - Lantu's December sales exceeded 15,900 units, with an annual total of 150,169 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 87% [30] - IM Motors achieved an annual sales figure of 81,017 units, with December sales of 11,818 units [35] Group 5 - Avita's annual sales surpassed 120,000 units, with December sales of 10,470 units, marking ten consecutive months of sales exceeding 10,000 units [37] - Extreme Stone's December sales reached 2,528 units, with an annual total of 15,318 units, nearly tripling from the previous year [40] - Hongmeng Zhixing delivered 589,107 vehicles in 2025, with December sales of 89,611 units, marking a historical high for three consecutive months [42]

Core Viewpoint - BYD reported its December 2025 and full-year sales data, showing a total of 420,400 electric vehicles sold in December, with a total annual sales of 4,602,436 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.73% [1][9]. Sales Data Summary - In December 2025, BYD's total sales of new energy vehicles reached 420,400 units, including 414,800 passenger cars, 190,700 pure electric vehicles, and 223,800 plug-in hybrid vehicles [1][2]. - For the entire year of 2025, BYD's cumulative sales of new energy vehicles amounted to 4,602,436 units, with passenger car sales at 4,545,423 units, pure electric vehicle sales at 2,256,714 units (up 27.86%), and plug-in hybrid vehicle sales at 2,288,709 units (down 7.91%) [1][2][12]. Brand Performance - The Dynasty and Ocean networks contributed significantly to sales, with December sales of 344,900 units, including 155,436 units from the Dynasty network and 188,838 units from the Ocean network [3][13]. - The Dynasty network's annual cumulative sales reached 1,885,203 units, while the Ocean network's annual sales totaled 2,220,008 units [4][14]. Export Performance - In December, BYD exported 133,200 new energy vehicles, with total overseas sales for 2025 exceeding 1 million units, marking a 145% year-on-year increase [10][19]. - The company is enhancing its competitiveness in overseas markets through localized production and self-shipping strategies to mitigate high tariffs in regions like Europe and the US [19]. Milestones - BYD announced the production of its 15 millionth new energy vehicle on December 18, 2025, highlighting a significant milestone for the Chinese automotive industry [10][19].