专题：资本市场大咖2026新春献词：骏马踏春来 驭势稳行启新程 编者按：辞旧迎新，金马贺岁。值此新春佳节，新浪财经特邀公私募领域数十位领军人物，通过镜头与 文字，为投资者送来马年新春祝福。信心如磐，笃行致远。愿这一声声真挚寄语，伴您策马扬鞭，共赴 投资长路。 重阳投资合伙人、《财富是认知的变现》作者舒泰峰送来新春祝福。他表示，投资理财没有一夜暴富的 捷径，但是有慢慢变富的秘诀，那就是要拥有"四颗心"：耐心、疑心、小心、初心。对应四个思维：长 期思维、逆向思维、风险思维和股权思维。投资是一场逆人性的游戏，财富复利的最大秘密是如何理解 时间：以长时间的默默坚守换取少数精彩时刻的绽放。祝愿广大投资者朋友们平安健康、阖家幸福、马 到功成、业绩长红。 祝福全文如下： 新浪的朋友们大家好，我是重阳投资合伙人舒泰峰。投资理财没有一夜暴富的捷径，但是有慢慢变富的 秘诀，那就是要拥有"四颗心"：耐心、疑心、小心、初心。对应四个思维：长期思维、逆向思维、风险 思维和股权思维。投资是一场逆人性的游戏，财富复利的最大秘密是如何理解时间：以长时间的默默坚 守换取少数精彩时刻的绽放。 这是我在全新升级版《财富是认知的变现》一书中提炼的精 ...

Core Viewpoint - The public fund industry is undergoing a generational leadership transition, reflecting a shift from rapid growth to high-quality development amidst various pressures such as fee reforms and changing investor demands [1][2][3]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - In 2025, the public fund industry experienced a significant leadership turnover, with 462 changes in senior management across 162 fund managers, marking a historical high [2]. - Over 40% of public fund institutions adjusted their leadership, with notable changes in major firms like E Fund, Huaxia Fund, and China Merchants Fund [2][3]. - The leadership changes are driven by both natural generational shifts and strategic adjustments from shareholders, indicating a deeper transformation in the industry [3]. Group 2: Characteristics of Excellent Fund Executives - Five core traits are essential for successful public fund executives in the current transformation era [4]. - **Respect for Professionalism**: Executives must be knowledgeable about industry dynamics and act as "translators" between shareholder interests and professional operations [5][6]. - **Forward-Looking Vision**: Executives should possess a keen insight into market trends and customer needs, translating these insights into innovative product strategies [7]. - **Long-Term Thinking**: Successful executives understand market cycles and prioritize long-term strategies over short-term gains, ensuring sustainable growth [8][9]. - **Talent Development**: Building a robust talent ecosystem is crucial, focusing on identifying, nurturing, and retaining top talent while fostering a collaborative culture [10][11]. - **Industry Mission and Public Responsibility**: Executives must recognize their role in maintaining industry integrity and public trust, advocating for sound practices and investor education [12]. Group 3: Systemic Transformation - The industry is moving away from individual heroism towards a focus on systemic capabilities, emphasizing governance, collaboration, and technological integration [15][16]. - The separation of roles between chairpersons and general managers, along with strengthened board functions, signals a shift towards modern governance [17]. - Effective systems require breaking down departmental silos and fostering agile collaboration centered around customer needs and product life cycles [17][18]. - The transition from individual leadership to organizational design necessitates leaders to possess deep systemic thinking and strategic patience [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the inherent risks of financial bubbles and the importance of understanding the underlying value of investments, warning against the dangers of following market trends without due diligence [2][6]. Group 1: Financial Bubbles - Historical examples illustrate how quickly asset prices can rise and fall, leading to significant losses for investors who do not understand the market dynamics [2][4]. - The tulip mania of 1636 is cited as a classic case where prices soared to the equivalent of $25,000 to $30,000 per bulb, only to crash, leaving many investors in financial ruin [4][5]. - The article highlights that all financial bubbles ultimately trend towards zero, with most participants losing not only paper profits but also their principal investments [6][5]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors often succumb to herd mentality, which can lead to irrational decision-making and increased risk exposure [6][10]. - The article references Newton's loss during the South Sea Bubble, illustrating that even the most knowledgeable investors can fall victim to market madness [6][10]. - It stresses the importance of maintaining a cautious approach and avoiding the temptation to chase after fleeting market trends [7][12]. Group 3: Investment Principles - The article outlines four key cognitive tools for successful investing: long-term thinking, independent thinking, risk awareness, and equity mindset [8][13]. - Long-term thinking is crucial for compounding returns, but investors must be patient and resilient against short-term volatility [9][10]. - Independent thinking helps investors avoid the pitfalls of following the crowd, while risk awareness ensures that potential losses are considered before making investment decisions [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of four key cognitive tools for successful investing: long-term thinking, independent thinking, risk awareness, and equity thinking, which correspond to patience, skepticism, caution, and original intention respectively [1][7]. Group 1: Long-term Thinking - Long-term thinking is essential for achieving compound interest, which can be interrupted by various factors, leading to a loss of investment momentum [2]. - The early stages of compound interest accumulation can be misleading and slow, making it easy for investors to give up [2]. - Investors often struggle to understand "tail events," which are rare but impactful occurrences that can significantly influence investment outcomes [3]. - The accumulation of compound interest requires enduring market volatility, which is an unavoidable aspect of financial markets [4]. Group 2: Independent Thinking - The article highlights the prevalence of herd mentality in the stock market, which can lead to impulsive investment decisions [5]. - It encourages investors to cultivate a habit of skepticism and not to blindly trust third-party information or conclusions [5]. Group 3: Risk Awareness - Investors often exhibit cognitive biases such as over-optimism and linear thinking, which can lead to reckless behavior, especially during prosperous times [6]. - The article cites a common saying in the investment community that emphasizes the rarity of investors who are both bold and prudent [6]. Group 4: Equity Thinking - Equity thinking is described as the foundational mindset for value investing, requiring investors to view their stocks as ownership stakes in companies [7]. - This mindset encourages investors to engage deeply with the companies they invest in, potentially influencing company governance and growth [7]. - The article concludes that possessing equity thinking allows investors to patiently await value growth while maintaining skepticism and caution [8].

Core Viewpoint - Gao Nan's funds have achieved historical highs despite recent market fluctuations, driven by strong performance and explosive growth in fund size [1][8]. Fund Performance - Yongying Stable Enhancement fund's size increased from 1 billion to 34.9 billion this year, and it has paused institutional subscriptions through third-party channels [1]. - Yongying Ruixin, a flagship fund managed by Gao Nan, has risen by 86.93% this year, with its size growing from 1.3 billion to 14.4 billion [1]. Investment Strategy - Gao Nan employs a bottom-up investment approach, focusing on fundamental improvements and explosive earnings opportunities, successfully capturing turning points in the market [2][3]. - The fund exhibits high turnover rates, with Yongying Ruixin's turnover rate at 780% last year and 856% in the first half of this year, consistent with previous performance at other firms [4]. Sector Allocation - In the first half of 2024, the fund's major sectors include electronics (semiconductors), light industry manufacturing (new consumption), power equipment, non-ferrous metals, and military industry [5]. - The pharmaceutical sector (innovative drugs) became the largest holding in the first half of the year, while light industry manufacturing's allocation decreased [5]. Performance Analysis - In 2024, the fund avoided early-year declines and outperformed the benchmark index from April to May, achieving an 11.8% increase [7][8]. - Despite a slight underperformance in the third quarter due to reduced stock positions and lagging heavyweights, the fund still outperformed the benchmark by 12 percentage points for the year [8]. Future Outlook - In 2025, the fund capitalized on opportunities in new consumption, innovative drugs, and AI, with strong performance across multiple quarters [9][10]. - The fund's performance in the fourth quarter has also been solid, with a 5.5% increase and a top 4 ranking among peers [11].

Core Insights - The article discusses the rapid evolution of AI technology and its implications for society, emphasizing that we are still at the beginning of this technological journey [1][2][3]. Group 1: Understanding AI's Current Stage - AI is viewed as being in its "first day," indicating that significant advancements are yet to come, and future generations may see today's AI as primitive [1]. - The speed of technological invention outpaces cultural absorption, suggesting that society may take about a decade to fully integrate current technologies [2]. Group 2: The Evolution of Technology - Technology is likened to a living system that evolves and explores new possibilities, with human curiosity being a unique trait that drives innovation [3]. - AI currently lacks curiosity, which remains a human trait essential for creativity and innovation [3]. Group 3: Human-AI Coexistence - A symbiotic relationship between humans and AI is envisioned, where AI becomes an integral part of daily life, much like electricity [4][5]. - Emotional connections with AI are anticipated, even if AI lacks consciousness, leading to significant emotional impacts on human users [5]. Group 4: Long-term Thinking in Business - Companies with a long-term perspective tend to perform better financially, as they face less competition and can foster optimism [6]. - Long-term thinking is essential for shaping the future and achieving complex goals, as it encourages a vision beyond immediate results [6]. Group 5: The Value of Wisdom - Wisdom, defined as knowledge with a long-term perspective, is becoming increasingly scarce, while AI can assist in providing broader insights for decision-making [7]. - AI's ability to process vast amounts of information can help organizations gain a deeper understanding of context, which is crucial for effective management [7]. Group 6: Navigating Technological Change - Businesses are encouraged to conduct low-cost, low-expectation AI experiments across various departments to understand AI's potential [8]. - Continuous experimentation and learning from failures are vital for maximizing AI's benefits [8]. Group 7: Optimism in Technological Progress - A gradual optimism is advocated, suggesting that the world improves incrementally rather than through sudden breakthroughs [9]. - The integration of AI requires significant changes in work processes and employee mindsets, indicating a long-term evolution rather than immediate results [9]. Group 8: Ethical Considerations in AI - Trust in AI systems is crucial, and developing technologies to assess AI reliability presents a significant business opportunity [10]. - The ethical implications of AI development are highlighted, emphasizing the need for responsible AI that can be trusted by users [10]. Group 9: Globalization and Technological Development - The article suggests that globalization is still in its early stages, with technology playing a key role in connecting different regions [13]. - The differences in technological approaches between China and the West are acknowledged, but significant similarities in outcomes are noted [12].

Market Overview - The trading volume has decreased again, falling below 2 trillion, indicating a tense market situation with a significant number of stocks experiencing declines after a previous rise [1] - The market sentiment is low, with most sectors, including storage chips, liquor, and resource stocks, showing poor performance today [1] - Historical trends suggest that market opportunities often arise unexpectedly, even when sentiment is low [1] Key Levels and Expectations - The index has managed to hold above the 3900-point level, which is seen as significant for future market movements [1] - Upcoming events, such as a major conference next week and a meeting in South Korea regarding tariffs, are anticipated to influence market dynamics positively [1] - The focus remains on solidifying the 3900-point level, with the next target being 4000 points [1]

Core Viewpoint - The proposal to terminate quarterly earnings reports aims to shift corporate focus from short-term performance to long-term management, potentially reducing regulatory burdens on companies [1][2]. Group 1: Proposal and Rationale - President Trump supports the idea of companies reporting earnings every six months instead of quarterly, arguing it will save costs and allow management to focus on proper company operations [1][2]. - The change is seen as a response to concerns that U.S. companies prioritize short-term stock market performance over long-term challenges and opportunities [1][3]. Group 2: Industry Context and Comparisons - The Long-Term Stock Exchange plans to petition the SEC to eliminate quarterly earnings reports, reflecting a broader industry push for regulatory relief [2][3]. - Other regions, such as the EU and the UK, have already moved to semi-annual reporting, indicating a shift in regulatory practices [3]. Group 3: Implications of the Change - Transitioning to semi-annual reports may delay timely insights into company performance, which are crucial for stakeholders like shareholders, economists, and policymakers [3][4]. - Quarterly reports provide valuable information on market trends, such as travel demand and loan loss warnings, which could be less frequent under the new system [3][4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that President Trump supports the termination of quarterly earnings reports for publicly traded companies, advocating for biannual reporting instead, to shift focus from short-term performance to long-term management [1][3]. - This change is seen as a response to concerns that companies prioritize pleasing the volatile stock market over addressing long-term challenges and opportunities [2]. - The proposal to eliminate quarterly reports is expected to require approval from the SEC, which may soon evaluate this change as the Long-Term Stock Exchange plans to petition the SEC for this adjustment [3][5]. Group 2 - The trend of moving away from quarterly reporting has already been adopted by regulatory bodies in the EU and the UK, which now require companies to report every six months [4]. - Industry experts, including Jared Seberg from TD Cowen, note that there is a push within the industry to eliminate quarterly reports, with the SEC chairman appointed by Trump advocating for reduced regulatory burdens [5][6]. - However, stakeholders such as shareholders, economists, and policymakers rely on timely updates from major companies, as quarterly reports provide critical insights into market conditions and economic changes [7][8].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Operating revenues surpassed $2,000,000,000 for the first time, reaching $2,020,000,000, which is a 14% increase in constant currency [31][32] - Net profit after tax was $377,200,000, reflecting a 30% increase in constant currency compared to the previous year [12][32] - Gross margin improved to 62.9%, an increase of 1.3% in constant currency [34] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Hospital business revenue was $1,280,000,000, up 16% in constant currency [32] - Home care business revenue reached $739,900,000, an 11% increase in constant currency [32] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company treated 22 million patients with its products during FY 2025 [28] - The manufacturing facility in China became fully operational, contributing to product shipments [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on long-term planning, with a perspective extending beyond 15 years [6][7] - Infrastructure investments include the construction of a fifth building at the East Tamaki campus and securing land for a second campus in New Zealand [7] - The company aims to double its constant currency revenue every five to six years sustainably [57] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the impact of global geopolitics and tariffs but emphasized a long-term approach to mitigate cost increases [8][11] - The outlook for FY 2026 includes revenue expectations between $2,150,000,000 and $2,250,000, with net profit after tax projected between $390,000,000 and $440,000,000 [53] Other Important Information - The board approved a dividend of $0.0425 per share, a 2% increase over the previous year, with a payout ratio of approximately 66% [12][13] - The company is committed to ongoing investments in R&D and maintaining a prudent balance sheet [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why hasn't the company conducted a major investor day like Xero? - The company complies with New Zealand regulations and believes its disclosures are adequate, thus not planning to adopt the Australian remuneration report [63] Question: What are the expectations for FY 2026 underlying profit? - The company provided specific guidance for FY 2026, indicating a long-term growth trajectory despite anomalies during the COVID period [65] Question: Why hasn't the company disclosed proxy votes early? - The company prefers to have discussions without the influence of proxy votes and will disclose them after the meeting [76]