12 月投资展望：蓄势而跃 20251130 摘要 消费市场基本面已触底，预计 2026 年消费将呈现低速增长，CPI 改善 程度将是关键。成长股加速下跌反映资金抛弃，短期内防御策略占优， 但调整充分的成长股明年或成首选，如白酒企业古井贡酒、山西汾酒、 泸州老窖等。 化妆品行业整体或逊于今年，但头部公司如若雨臣、毛戈平和尚美增长 预期乐观。跌幅较大的登康口腔、润门股份和珀莱雅亦值得关注。旅游 出行板块前景良好，受益于假期制度改革，推荐携程、同程、亚朵、华 住、锦江、首旅以及峨眉山、长白山和三峡旅游。 黄金珠宝行业短期仍受价格主导，销量承压，关注提价能力强或直营模 式企业。金条业务或受益于税改，推荐老凤祥、金菜百股份、六福集团 与周大福。新消费领域景气度高，关注潮玩、新兴国潮珠宝及相关电商， 如泡泡玛特、积木科技与名创优品。 家电行业个别股票筑底，与大盘相关性高。12 月排产降幅大，但与去年 同期高基数有关。关注龙头企业美的，其市占率稳定且分红预期良好。 推荐安孚科技，其充电宝业务有望带来额外收入增长。 目前拖累 CPI 的主要因素是猪肉价格和部分农产品价格，但整体价格水平已有 所回升。若 PPI 能略微回升， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that inflationary concerns are leading investors to adopt defensive investment strategies ahead of the upcoming CPI report, with a focus on sectors like utilities, communication services, and consumer staples [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has risen by 8.6% this year, but recent employment data and rising service sector inflation have caused a market downturn, highlighting sensitivity to stagflation risks [1][2] - Analysts emphasize that tariff increases typically result in stagflationary shocks, raising the probability of economic slowdown while exerting upward pressure on prices [3] Group 2 - The New York Federal Reserve's monthly survey indicates that consumer inflation expectations rose in July, intensifying concerns about a prolonged inflation cycle [4] - Despite rising stagflation worries, some analysts maintain a relatively optimistic outlook for the market in the coming weeks, suggesting that tax cuts may stimulate investment and alleviate concerns [4] - Long-term inflation worries persist, with expectations that inflation may accelerate by 2026, and that bond yields and mortgage rates may not decline as anticipated when the Federal Reserve takes action [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market has rebounded from recent lows, but traders are significantly increasing their allocation to defensive assets [1] - Despite President Trump's announcement to pause tariffs on most goods for 90 days, investors focusing on safe sectors have achieved better returns than those in riskier areas [1][2] - Barclays data shows that defensive stock portfolios generally outperform cyclical stocks during market upswings, and continue to lead when market sentiment worsens [1][3] Group 2 - Financially weaker companies have seen a 3.3% decline in stock prices after the tariff pause announcement, underperforming healthier companies [1] - Keith Lerner from Truist Advisory Services indicates a shift towards traditional defensive strategies, suggesting that investors are waiting for clearer market signals [1][2] - Defensive sectors like utilities, consumer staples, and healthcare tend to be more resilient during economic downturns, providing stable earnings and relatively smooth returns [2] Group 3 - The shift towards defensive companies reflects changes in market behavior and risk-return dynamics, particularly evident in the AI sector, which has recently faced significant declines [3] - High-growth companies are struggling due to factors beyond their control, prompting investors to pivot towards defensive sectors in preparation for further market volatility [3]