专注于中国消费品领域新媒体，对通路营销、渠道数字化及新零售领域进行专业研究及媒体报道。 本文已获得授权，来源： 新经销（ID：New-distribution） ，作者：陈思廷，原文标题：《传统经 销商到了最危急的时刻：不是生意差，是生意底座塌了》，头图来自：视觉中国 过去三个月，我跑了四川、海南、陕西几个市场，看到的不是"下滑"，而是断崖 式 "急坠" 。 从 8月之后，数量众多的经销商销售规模突然掉了30%，甚至50%以上。很多人原来还在微利高压里 撑着， 现在却 一脚踩进亏损。 以下文章来源于新经销 ，作者陈思廷 新经销 . 你问原因？消费环境、天气当然有影响，但它们解释不了这轮 集体塌方的速度和幅度。 真正的拐点，是零售渠道在 8月之后突然激烈变形，而这一变形，直指经销商的饭碗。 一句话：不是经销商 老板们 不努力，是 大家 赖以生存的 传统零售土壤 正在迅速坍塌。 一、三重冲击，正在击垮经销商 存量 第一重冲击：零食折扣店 开一条街，塌一条街。 很多人还没意识到，零食折扣店对传统店的打击不是 抢一点生意，而是结构性替代。 你在一条街上看到一家赵一鸣 或者零食优选 ，不要以为只是多了个新店。你很快会看 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese snack market is undergoing significant changes, with a market size reaching 1.1 trillion yuan in 2024, but the annual growth rate is expected to slow to 2%-3% from 2024 to 2027, indicating a shift in market dynamics rather than a decline in vitality [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The rapid emergence of discount snack stores is a notable trend, with the number of such stores expected to increase from over 1,000 in 2020 to 45,000 by mid-2025, averaging nearly 30 new stores opening daily [4]. - The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for discount stores from 2019 to 2024 is projected at 38%, significantly outpacing traditional supermarkets [4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly drawn to discount stores primarily for cost savings, with prices typically 25% lower than traditional supermarkets due to direct partnerships with manufacturers [6]. - Discount stores offer flexible product options, catering to younger consumers who prefer smaller, varied purchases, thus reducing waste [6]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The discount store sector is expected to continue growing, with potential for over 70,000 stores in the future, while major players like "零食很忙" and "赵一鸣" dominate nearly two-thirds of the market [8]. - The return period for investments in this sector is lengthening, from one year to potentially three years, necessitating careful risk assessment for potential investors [8]. Group 4: Retail Channel Shifts - Traditional supermarkets and grocery stores held 80% of the market share in 2015, but this is projected to drop to 50% by 2025, reflecting a significant shift in retail dynamics [10]. - E-commerce is also evolving, with consumers increasingly purchasing snacks through content platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, rather than traditional e-commerce sites [12][13]. Group 5: International Expansion - Southeast Asia is emerging as a new market for snack manufacturers, with growth rates in countries like Indonesia and Malaysia outpacing domestic growth since 2021 [15]. - The combined snack market of five major Southeast Asian countries is expected to reach 29% of China's market share by 2029, driven by cultural similarities and economic growth [15][17]. Group 6: Strategic Adaptation - Companies must adapt to changing channels and consumer preferences, as traditional sales methods become less effective. Brands like Wei Long and Yan Jin Pu Zi have already embraced new channels and marketing strategies [19]. - The snack industry is entering a new development phase, where adapting to channel changes is crucial for sustained growth and success [21].

Core Insights - The Chinese snack industry, valued at over 1 trillion RMB, is experiencing a pivotal transformation driven by channel evolution, particularly the rise of discount snack stores, which are becoming key growth drivers [1][5][6] Market Overview - The market size of the Chinese snack industry is projected to reach 1.1 trillion RMB by 2024, but the annual growth rate is expected to slow to 2-3% from 2024 to 2027 [2][5] - The discount snack store channel is forecasted to continue its rapid growth, achieving a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% from 2024 to 2027, increasing its contribution to overall snack sales from 9.0% in 2024 to 12.5% in 2027 [6][11] Channel Dynamics - Traditional retail channels, such as supermarkets and grocery stores, are losing market share, while discount snack stores are emerging as a new battleground for brand growth [5][6] - Discount snack stores have expanded their store count from approximately 1,000 in 2020 to over 45,000 by mid-2025, with a projected ceiling of over 70,000 stores, indicating more than 30% growth potential [15][16] Competitive Landscape - The discount snack store market is currently dominated by two major groups: "Snack Busy Group" and "Wancheng Group," which together hold nearly two-thirds of the market share [16] - The average return period for discount snack stores has extended from about 1 year to approximately 2 years, reflecting increased competition and higher store density [17] E-commerce Trends - The influence of traditional retail channels is diminishing, with their sales share expected to drop from 80% in 2015 to 50% by 2025, while discount snack stores and e-commerce channels are gaining market share [18] - E-commerce growth is shifting towards content platforms, which engage consumers more effectively than traditional platforms, with 91.8% of respondents using content platforms daily [18] International Opportunities - Southeast Asia is emerging as a significant growth opportunity for Chinese snack companies, with a projected CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2029, despite the market size being only 24% of China's in 2024 [22] Strategic Implications - Snack companies must adapt to structural channel changes by implementing robust product strategies, agile marketing plans, and consumer-oriented innovation cycles to avoid being outpaced by the rapidly evolving market [24]

Core Insights - The Chinese snack industry, valued at over 1 trillion RMB, is experiencing a pivotal transformation driven by channel evolution, particularly the rise of discount snack stores as a key growth engine [1][6][20] Market Overview - The market size of the Chinese snack industry is projected to reach 1.1 trillion RMB by 2024, but the annual growth rate is expected to slow to 2-3% from 2024 to 2027 [2][6] - Traditional retail channels are losing market share, while discount snack stores are rapidly gaining traction, becoming the new battleground for brand growth [6][20] Discount Snack Stores - Discount snack stores have achieved a remarkable compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38% from 2019 to 2024, with expectations to continue growing at a CAGR of 14% from 2024 to 2027 [7][10] - The number of discount snack stores has surged to 45,000, with a potential ceiling of over 70,000 stores, indicating significant room for future growth [10][19] - The market is currently dominated by two major groups, accounting for nearly two-thirds of the store share [14] E-commerce Trends - The focus of e-commerce growth is shifting towards content platforms, which enhance consumer engagement through entertainment and social interaction, surpassing traditional e-commerce platforms in user attraction [16][20] - Content platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou are becoming essential for driving impulse purchases and integrating consumer lifestyles [16] International Expansion - Southeast Asia presents a significant growth opportunity for Chinese snack companies, with a projected CAGR of 6% from 2024 to 2029, despite the market size being only 24% of China's in 2024 [20] Strategic Implications for Brands - Brands must adapt to the structural changes in channels by implementing robust product strategies and agile marketing plans to avoid being outpaced by the evolving market [24] - Leading brands are establishing a strong presence in discount snack stores while balancing sales growth with profit margins in online channels [24]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new generation of retail chains in China, particularly focusing on the "ten thousand stores" model, which has transformed the retail landscape by emphasizing convenience, affordability, and efficiency in consumer goods distribution [4][11]. Group 1: Retail Innovations - The "ten thousand stores" model in China has seen the rise of several successful chains, including Mi Xue Bing Cheng, Wallace, and Luckin Coffee, with Mi Xue Bing Cheng leading with over 30,000 stores [4][6]. - The retail sector has shifted towards a model that combines community engagement with discount offerings, making it easier for consumers to access products [11]. Group 2: Case Studies of Successful Brands - Guoquan, which started with around 1,000 stores in 2019, has rapidly expanded to over 10,000 stores, focusing on frozen food retail, making hot pot dining more accessible and affordable for consumers [7]. - Snack brand "Zero Snacks" has also seen significant growth, surpassing 10,000 stores, and operates on a discount model that allows for lower prices while maintaining quality [8]. - Qian Dama, which specializes in fresh food with a unique discounting strategy, has grown from 200 stores and 600 million yuan in sales to over 3,000 stores and 10 billion yuan in sales [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The shift in consumer behavior has led to a decline in sales for traditional snack brands like Three Squirrels, which saw a drop from 10 billion yuan to around 7 billion yuan, as consumers increasingly prefer discount stores [9]. - The article highlights the importance of adapting to consumer preferences, with many brands now focusing on creating tailored products for discount retail environments [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes investing in essential goods and innovative business models, which are more likely to yield significant returns and create large companies [16]. - A strong business logic and competitive advantage are crucial for successful investments in the retail sector [17]. Group 5: Efficiency and Quality - The significance of commercial innovation lies in combining quality with efficiency, ensuring that consumers receive real value for their money [18][19].