以下文章来源于i黑马 ，作者罗浛予 i黑马 . 让创业者不再孤独@i黑马 常斌，启承资本创始人&管理合伙人，黑马加速导师。 曾负责京东集团的战略投资，于2016年创办启承资本，专注消费投资，助力新一代消费冠军。已经投资了十月稻田、锅圈食汇、源氏木语、植护、果子熟了、 零食很忙、钱大妈、薛记炒货、海马体、M Stand、林清轩等知名品牌。 近期，常斌总将公布一个新计划， 文末扫码，即可咨询。 近日， 启承资本创始合伙人常斌 与 创业黑马副董事长罗浛予， 在 对话中聊到一个话题： 现在线下商场门可罗雀，是大家都不愿花钱了吗？ 以下是他们对话的部分精彩内容： 罗浛予： 常 斌总 ， 不知道您有没有这 种 体感 ， 现在走进商场 ， 会发现 人越来越少 ， 甚至连一些 刚需 用 品都在降价 。 这 背后 ， 代表 着 一种 什么 样 的消费趋势 ？ 常斌： 现在 确实可能 处于 一个 转变 时刻 。 有些商场周末也门可罗雀 ， 好像穿着三个颜色的外卖小哥还多一点 。 但是有一些的商场 ， 比如上海的大悦城 、 北京的 合生汇等，人群拥挤 的也受不了 。 这 说明 ， 其实在不同的场合里 ， 消费者 群体 出现了 越来 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the lessons that Chinese companies can learn from Japan's "lost thirty years," emphasizing the importance of consumer needs, product quality, and operational efficiency in navigating economic cycles [7][9][12]. Group 1: Insights from Japan - Japan experienced stagnant wages and severe aging during its "lost thirty years," yet it produced successful consumer champions like Uniqlo and 7-Eleven, highlighting the importance of upgrading consumer necessities and changing business formats [8][9]. - The emergence of affordable alternatives in Japan shifted consumer focus from luxury to practicality, as seen with Uniqlo's rise [10][11]. - Key takeaways for Chinese companies include the need for extreme cost-performance ratios, unique offline retail experiences, and high execution efficiency [12][13]. Group 2: Opportunities in the Chinese Market - The article identifies the "downstream market" as a crucial area for growth in the next two to three decades, emphasizing the search for new national brands and chain stores [14][15]. - Historical context is provided with the example of JD.com, which grew from 1 billion in revenue to becoming China's first trillion-yuan retail enterprise, showcasing the importance of cost, efficiency, and user experience [18][19]. - The author notes that since 2016, the focus has been on investing in new consumer champions, with 15 companies achieving over 1 billion in revenue and 3 companies projected to exceed 10 billion this year [24][25]. Group 3: Structural Opportunities in Consumption - The article outlines two structural opportunities in the Chinese consumer market: the rise of new national brands and the development of nationwide chains [28]. - The author emphasizes the importance of product innovation and brand expansion, particularly in the context of the pandemic, which created significant opportunities for food companies [26][27]. - The upcoming "Black Horse Consumption Rise" course aims to provide insights into how Chinese and Japanese consumer champions succeed in the current market landscape [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of learning from Japan's "lost thirty years" to identify structural opportunities in China's consumer market, particularly focusing on the emergence of new national brands and nationwide chains [7][28]. Group 1: Insights from Japan - Japan experienced stagnant wages and severe aging during its lost thirty years, yet it produced successful consumer champions like Uniqlo and 7-Eleven, highlighting the potential for growth even in challenging economic conditions [8][9]. - Two key insights from Japan's experience are the continuous upgrade of essential needs and the emergence of affordable alternatives, which shifted consumer focus from luxury to practicality [10][12]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The company,启承资本, founded by 常斌, has invested in over 20 companies since 2016, focusing on new national brands and chain enterprises, particularly in food, beverage, and lifestyle sectors [5][24]. - As of now, 15 of the invested companies have revenues exceeding 1 billion, with 5 surpassing 5 billion, and 3 retail companies expected to exceed 10 billion this year [24]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The article identifies two structural opportunities in the Chinese consumer market: the rise of new national brands and the development of new nationwide chains [28]. - The company believes that despite current market uncertainties, there are still structural opportunities for businesses to thrive [27]. Group 4: Educational Initiative - A program called "黑马百亿消费冠军专题营" is introduced, aimed at sharing a decade of value creation strategies and case studies from invested companies, along with localized Japanese experiences [29][30]. - The program will cover various aspects of business growth, including product innovation, competitive strategy, and long-term value creation [32][50].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new generation of retail chains in China, particularly focusing on the "ten thousand stores" model, which emphasizes community-based, specialized, and discount-oriented retail strategies. This model has led to significant growth in various sectors, particularly in food and snacks, showcasing a shift in consumer behavior and retail dynamics in the country [7][10][17]. Group 1: Investment Insights - Qicheng Capital, founded by Chang Bin, focuses on consumer investments and has successfully backed brands like JiuYueDaoTian, GuoQuanShiHui, and others, aiming to support the next generation of consumer champions [5][6]. - The company has invested considerable time studying offline business models in China, identifying seven established "ten thousand stores" enterprises, with notable examples including MiXueBingCheng and GuoQuan, which have rapidly expanded their store counts [7][19]. - The article highlights the success of GuoQuan, which transitioned from a restaurant model to a retail chain, achieving over 10,000 stores in a short period, primarily in lower-tier cities [11][12]. Group 2: Retail Trends - The snack retail sector has seen a transformation with the rise of "Snacks Are Busy," which has surpassed 10,000 stores, offering a discount model that appeals to consumers by providing lower prices and a wide variety of products [13][15]. - The shift in consumer spending from traditional supermarkets and online platforms to discount snack stores indicates a significant change in the retail landscape, with consumers favoring convenience and affordability [15][16]. - The article emphasizes the iterative process of enhancing user value and commercial efficiency across various retail channels, leading to structural changes in the industry [16]. Group 3: Business Model Innovations - The success of these retail chains is attributed to their ability to create a solid business foundation, focusing on product quality and operational efficiency, which allows for rapid expansion without excessive cash burn [21][24]. - The article discusses the importance of establishing a strong initial model that can attract quality franchisees, ensuring sustainable growth and profitability as the business scales [22][23]. - It also notes that the retail sector's evolution from online to offline models has led to a more robust and resilient business environment, where companies can achieve profitability through careful planning and execution [24].

Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes that capital assistance is not a necessary condition for achieving a "ten thousand store" chain model; rather, the core lies in the design of the business model itself [6][17]. Group 1: Capital and Business Model - Capital is not essential for achieving a "ten thousand store" chain; the key is the design of the business model [6][7]. - Successful examples like "零食很忙" demonstrate that a well-designed business model can lead to significant growth without external financing [7][8]. - Achieving a "ten thousand store" scale typically requires a revenue target of 10 billion [10][11]. Group 2: Ecosystem and Opportunities - Founders of "ten thousand store" chains create an industry ecosystem that includes numerous entrepreneurs and supply chain leaders, sharing benefits within the ecosystem [12][13]. - The rise of specialized small and medium enterprises engaging in "ten thousand store" chains presents new opportunities for ordinary entrepreneurs [14][16]. Group 3: Franchise System and Brand Evaluation - To succeed in a "ten thousand store" model, entrepreneurs must master the ability to establish a franchise system [17]. - Entrepreneurs can also join existing franchise ecosystems as specialized operators, which may be a viable entrepreneurial approach [19]. - Evaluating a brand's potential for a "ten thousand store" model involves assessing the quality of its product system and understanding its profit sources [24][26]. Group 4: Successful Franchise Characteristics - A successful franchise system must offer real value to consumers through quality products and services [25]. - Brands like "锅圈" leverage strong supply chains to provide high-quality products directly to consumers, enhancing profitability [28][31]. - The distinction between short-term profit-seeking and long-term value creation is crucial in evaluating business models [31]. Group 5: Training and Development Programs - The article promotes a training program aimed at helping consumer brands overcome growth challenges and achieve significant revenue milestones [32][36]. - The program includes insights from successful brands and focuses on practical strategies for growth and competition [36][50]. Group 6: Target Audience for Training - The program targets emerging consumer brands with revenues between 1-5 billion, regional chain brands with over 300 stores, and traditional brands undergoing transformation [51].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence and growth of "ten-thousand store" models in China's retail and food sectors, highlighting successful companies that have adopted innovative business models to enhance consumer experience and operational efficiency [4][11][17]. Group 1: Ten-Thousand Store Model - The "ten-thousand store" model in China is characterized by a significant number of retail outlets, with companies like Mixue Ice Cream exceeding 30,000 stores and others like Wallace and Luckin Coffee around 20,000 stores [4][6]. - The retail industry has seen a shift towards this model since last year, indicating a trend towards more accessible and community-oriented retail options [6][11]. Group 2: Successful Companies - Guoquan, which started with about 1,000 stores in 2019, has grown to over 10,000 stores, becoming the first retail company in China to reach this milestone [7]. - The business model of Guoquan focuses on selling pre-packaged hot pot ingredients, making it convenient and affordable for consumers, thus increasing the frequency of hot pot consumption [7][10]. - Snack brand "Zero Snacks" has also surpassed 10,000 stores, utilizing a discount model that offers products at lower prices while maintaining quality, thus attracting consumers from traditional supermarkets [8][9]. Group 3: Innovative Business Models - Qian Dama, which specializes in selling fresh meat with a unique discounting strategy, has grown from 200 stores and 600 million yuan in sales to over 3,000 stores and sales exceeding 10 billion yuan [10]. - The article emphasizes the importance of separating market stalls and supermarkets to create specialized, community-focused, and discount-oriented retail experiences [11][12]. - The success of these companies is attributed to their ability to innovate and adapt to consumer needs, focusing on essential products and operational efficiency [15][17]. Group 4: Investment Insights - The investment strategy of Qicheng Capital focuses on essential categories and innovative models, which are more likely to create large companies [15]. - The article highlights the significance of a solid business foundation and the importance of refining operational models before expanding through franchising [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the emergence of a new generation of retail chains in China, particularly focusing on the "ten thousand stores" model, which has transformed the retail landscape by emphasizing convenience, affordability, and efficiency in consumer goods distribution [4][11]. Group 1: Retail Innovations - The "ten thousand stores" model in China has seen the rise of several successful chains, including Mi Xue Bing Cheng, Wallace, and Luckin Coffee, with Mi Xue Bing Cheng leading with over 30,000 stores [4][6]. - The retail sector has shifted towards a model that combines community engagement with discount offerings, making it easier for consumers to access products [11]. Group 2: Case Studies of Successful Brands - Guoquan, which started with around 1,000 stores in 2019, has rapidly expanded to over 10,000 stores, focusing on frozen food retail, making hot pot dining more accessible and affordable for consumers [7]. - Snack brand "Zero Snacks" has also seen significant growth, surpassing 10,000 stores, and operates on a discount model that allows for lower prices while maintaining quality [8]. - Qian Dama, which specializes in fresh food with a unique discounting strategy, has grown from 200 stores and 600 million yuan in sales to over 3,000 stores and 10 billion yuan in sales [10]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The shift in consumer behavior has led to a decline in sales for traditional snack brands like Three Squirrels, which saw a drop from 10 billion yuan to around 7 billion yuan, as consumers increasingly prefer discount stores [9]. - The article highlights the importance of adapting to consumer preferences, with many brands now focusing on creating tailored products for discount retail environments [9]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes investing in essential goods and innovative business models, which are more likely to yield significant returns and create large companies [16]. - A strong business logic and competitive advantage are crucial for successful investments in the retail sector [17]. Group 5: Efficiency and Quality - The significance of commercial innovation lies in combining quality with efficiency, ensuring that consumers receive real value for their money [18][19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the shift from growth-driven strategies to efficiency-focused approaches in the current economic landscape, termed the "stock economy" era [6][10][14] - The article discusses the success of companies like Pop Mart, which saw its market value increase over tenfold to over 330 billion in just two years, and the expansion of other brands like Hushang Ayi and Anker Innovation [2][3] - The author highlights the importance of efficiency in business operations, stating that without it, growth can lead to failure, especially in a stock economy where resources are limited [14][16][18] Group 2 - The article outlines the characteristics of national brands that can thrive in the stock economy, emphasizing the need for products, store types, and management strategies that can penetrate deeper markets [30][31][32] - It discusses the significance of regional density in store management, suggesting that higher density can optimize supply chain costs and improve operational efficiency [41][42] - The article also mentions the importance of adapting to seasonal demand fluctuations and maintaining consistent sales throughout the year [45][46] Group 3 - The article addresses the global expansion strategies of companies, advocating for a diversified market approach and the establishment of manufacturing capabilities outside of China [60][62] - It emphasizes the need for companies to adopt a global mindset from inception, rather than merely reacting to international market conditions [61][65] - The author notes that the current trend in globalization is shifting from cost-driven strategies to efficiency-driven ones, leveraging validated technologies and operational capabilities [66][67] Group 4 - The article discusses the role of technology, particularly AI, in enhancing business efficiency, with a focus on companies like DeepSeek that have significantly reduced operational costs [70][71] - It predicts a future where the number of applications on mobile devices will decrease, workweeks will shorten, and average human lifespans will increase due to advancements in AI and healthcare [72][74][75] - The author stresses the importance of product development and innovation in maintaining competitive advantages in the market [56][70] Group 5 - The article highlights the essential qualities of successful founders, including strong values, learning ability, and adaptability to market changes [77][78] - It suggests that founders should focus on long-term sustainability rather than short-term gains, emphasizing the importance of building a solid foundation for their businesses [80][81] - The author provides advice for young professionals, encouraging them to prioritize skill development and time management over immediate financial rewards [86][94]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the successful listing of "沪上阿姨" on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and highlights the growth strategies of companies like "锅圈食汇" in the current challenging business environment [1][4]. Group 1: Company Performance - "沪上阿姨" was listed on May 8 at an issue price of HKD 113.12 per share, opening at HKD 190.6, representing a 68.5% increase from the issue price [1]. - "锅圈食汇" expanded its store count from over 3,000 to 10,000 within three years, achieving a significant milestone by listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange just six years after its establishment [4]. Group 2: Growth Strategy - The methodology for scaling from hundreds to thousands of stores is termed "refusing to be small and beautiful, moving towards 'high-end'" [6]. - The first step in achieving high goals is "market value to finance," where a target net profit margin of 5%-6% is set against projected sales to determine necessary revenue [9]. - The second step is "finance to business," where sales targets are translated into operational metrics, such as the number of stores and average sales per store [10][11]. - The third step involves validating business models against market conditions, ensuring that the operational assumptions are feasible [11]. - The fourth step is "market to organization," focusing on internal capabilities to meet market demands [11]. Group 3: Setting Aspirations - High goals should be translated into "big wishes" that resonate with stakeholders, similar to how Alibaba's Jack Ma framed his ambitious sales targets [12]. - For "锅圈食汇" and "沪上阿姨," the big wish is to make franchisees the happiest in China, aiming to create numerous millionaires and billionaires [12]. Group 4: Speed and Pressure Testing - The article emphasizes the importance of speed in execution, with successful chains achieving rapid expansion, such as opening 300 new stores monthly [13]. - A "pressure testing" methodology is introduced to identify and address organizational weaknesses under high operational demands [13][14]. - The pressure testing process involves setting ambitious targets, quantifying challenges, requesting resources, and aligning timelines across departments [16][17]. Group 5: Preconditions for Success - The success of the pressure testing approach relies on having a solid single-store model, ensuring that a majority of franchisees can recoup their investments within 18 months [18]. - The article concludes that to scale from hundreds to thousands of stores, companies must focus on high aspirations while ensuring operational excellence and product-channel alignment [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the successful IPO of Hu Shang A Yi, a tea beverage brand, on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting its rapid growth and market positioning in the Chinese tea beverage industry [2][4]. Company Overview - Hu Shang A Yi was founded in 2013 and has expanded to 9,367 stores as of April 18, 2025 [2]. - The company operates under three main brands: "Hu Shang A Yi," "Hu Ka," and "Qing Xiang Ban," with the latter two launched in 2022 and 2023 respectively [2]. - The brand has achieved significant market recognition, ranking first among mid-priced tea beverage brands in Northern China and fourth overall in the industry as of December 31, 2023 [2]. Investment and Support - Hu Shang A Yi has received investments from notable firms including Jia Yu Capital, Jin Yi Capital, and others [3]. - Jia Yu Capital has been a key investor since 2020, holding 9.15% of the company prior to the IPO, and has provided strategic guidance to enhance the company's growth trajectory [4]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized for its dual brand strategy and strong supply chain capabilities, which have contributed to its rapid expansion and market penetration [4]. - Hu Shang A Yi is noted for being the fastest-growing brand among the top five mid-priced tea beverage brands in China based on store count and GMV growth rates [2]. Future Outlook - The leadership of Hu Shang A Yi expresses confidence in continuing to enhance operational efficiency and digital membership systems to sustain growth [4]. - Jia Yu Capital aims to support Hu Shang A Yi in achieving higher quality development and expanding its market presence globally [4].