从中观层面来看，也有不同之处。2014年和2015年那轮牛市中，券商本质上是通过两融业务和创新业务 等手段加杠杆，推动ROE（净资产收益率）快速扩张，这是"杠杆牛"的典型特征。相比之下，现在的券 商整体表现较为稳健。监管环境和券商自身行为都更加稳健。例如，券商的投资业务，无论是自营业务 还是资管业务，目前都以固定收益类为核心。从本质上讲，券商的业绩会逐步改善，但这种增长相对比 较稳健。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：石秀珍 SF183 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 8月14日，三大指数高开低走，创指跌超1%，沪指3700点得而复失，终结8连阳。对此，东方财富证券 研究所副所长首席策略官陈果就"突破"924"行情高点A股接下来怎么走"进行解析。>>视频直播 他表示，每一轮牛市都有其不同之处。这也是为什么我提到，今年我们应当用"震荡上行"的形态来看待 市场。整体而言，流动性增量资金会逐渐流入，但这种流入是缓慢且温和的，可以说是"润物细无声"， 相对比较理性，而不是像过去那样激进和剧烈。很多资金是基于大类资产配置的考虑，在股票和债券之 间进行比较，而不 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold is expected to continue its upward trend with a focus on the resistance level of 3390 in the upcoming trading days [3][4] - The analysis suggests that gold has shown strong performance, characterized by a pattern of gradual increases, and emphasizes the importance of not overly pursuing bullish positions despite the upward momentum [3][4] - Silver has also reached its target, moving from 37.5 to 38.5, with expectations of further increases towards 39 in the last two trading days of the week [2][4] Group 2 - The domestic gold market, specifically the Shanghai gold (2512 contract), has reached a peak of approximately 782, with expectations of further increases towards 785, while maintaining a cautious approach to not overly chase bullish trends [4][5] - The international silver market has shown strength, with previous positions successfully reaching target levels, and a recommendation to observe the market without taking new positions [4][5] - The international crude oil market has experienced a downward trend, with a current low around 62, but there is potential for a rebound if it stabilizes above 64.5, indicating a possible bottoming out [5]

Group 1 - The market has shown dynamic changes following last week's data, with the dollar initially rising and then falling, while gold experienced a drop followed by a rise, indicating a weak dollar and strong gold outlook for the week [2][3] - The forecast for gold is bullish, with target prices set at 3400 and 3430, suggesting a phased approach to buying [3] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a range-bound movement, with support levels at 3340, 3330, and 3315, and a potential breakout above 3430 [3][4] Group 2 - Domestic gold trading has been advised to focus on long positions, with specific recommendations for contracts at 770 and 765, which have already yielded profits [4] - International silver has shown some upward movement but lacks the strength of gold, with support at 36.5 and targets set at 37.5 and 38.5 [4] - The domestic silver market is also advised to hold long positions, with targets at 9300 and 9500, while maintaining a focus on low buying strategies [5] Group 3 - International crude oil predictions were accurate, with a rise from a support level of 65 to 70, followed by a recommendation to exit positions as it began to decline [5] - The current trading range for crude oil is expected to be between 70 and 65, suggesting a strategy of high short and low long trades within this range [5] - Domestic fuel oil trading has seen a recommendation to monitor the 2800 level for potential trading opportunities, with a focus on maintaining long positions if the level holds [5]

Group 1 - The overall trend for gold remains bullish, with a focus on the previous week's trading range of 3375/3310, which needs to hold for continuation [3][5][6] - Silver is maintaining support at 37.3, and as long as this level holds, the downside potential is limited, with a key focus on breaking the 39 high [3][7] - Domestic gold trading has seen profitable long positions, with expectations for further upward movement, targeting levels of 795 for沪金 and 790 for融通金 [7][8] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates a tight consolidation in gold prices, with potential for a breakout if the 3375 level is breached, leading to a possible strong upward trend [6][5] - For silver, the strategy involves waiting for a pullback to the 37.5 support level to enter long positions, with a bullish outlook if the 39 level is broken [7][8] - The domestic oil market is also showing bullish signs, with expectations for prices to reach 3000 in the short term and 3200 in the medium term [8]