美国特朗普政府近期出台的一项海运收费新规，堪称一次精心算计的战略部署。自10月14日起，但凡在中国建造或运营的船只停 靠美国港口，都将面临高额的费用，每净吨最高可达140美元。这意味着，一艘排水量达10万吨的货船，单次停靠就可能承担高达 140万美元的额外成本。然而，中方并非束手待毙，中国远洋海运集团早在8月中旬便已悄然调整其航运路线，将12条原定停靠洛 杉矶港的航线巧妙地分流至墨西哥的恩塞纳达港和加拿大的鲁珀特王子港。这一调整，虽然增加了36小时的中转时间，却意外地 带来了22%的成本节约，显示出中国企业对地缘政治压力的灵活应对能力。 美国贸易代表办公室在今年4月公布这项政策时，或许低估了中国的反应速度和战略深度。该政策表面上旨在打击中国造船业，实 际上却编织了一张双重标准的罗网，试图将"中资经营者"和"中国建造"的船舶一网打尽。更具野心的是，它还试图将那些并非中资 但却使用中国船舶的航运公司也纳入收费范围。然而，政策中的豁免条款——要求在三年内"下单并交付"美国制造的船舶——在 现实面前显得异常苍白。鉴于美国目前不足0.1%的全球造船市场份额以及本土产业链的现状，这一条件近乎成为一个不可能完成 的任务。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article questions the rationale provided by Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran for advocating significant interest rate cuts, suggesting that if his views are accepted, it would imply that the Federal Reserve, investors, and independent economists are all incorrect [2]. Group 1: Miran's Arguments - Miran supports a reduction of interest rates from the current 4%-4.25% range to approximately 2.5%, citing the impact of Trump's policy changes, including reduced immigration, lower government borrowing, and deregulation, which he believes should lead to lower long-term rates [2][3]. - He estimates that the "neutral real long-term interest rate" has decreased by over 1 percentage point due to these policy changes, predicting a potential 10% increase in the price of 10-year TIPS if yields drop to his estimated levels [3]. Group 2: Market Implications - If Miran's assumptions hold, significant adjustments in market pricing would be necessary, leading to a weaker dollar and favorable conditions for the stock market, despite concerns about high stock prices [3]. - The combination of lower borrowing costs and a weaker dollar is expected to benefit the stock market, suggesting that it could rise even further if Miran's views are validated [3]. Group 3: Counterarguments and Economic Context - The article highlights potential downsides to Miran's proposed policy changes, such as labor shortages and rising wages due to immigration restrictions, which could increase inflation [4][5]. - It also points out that the effectiveness of deregulation is unpredictable and that Miran's reliance on the Taylor Rule may not fully account for current economic conditions, as other metrics suggest a higher recommended interest rate range [5]. - Current economic indicators, including a projected GDP growth rate exceeding 3% for Q3 and strong market performance, challenge the necessity for further rate cuts, indicating that the economic landscape is more robust than Miran suggests [6][7].

Group 1: Central Bank and Market Operations - The central bank announced a 500 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, set to take place on August 15 with a six-month term [1] - A-shares trading volume surged to 2.3 trillion yuan, marking the 28th trading day in history to exceed 2 trillion yuan, with August 14 being the 7th day and the 2nd day in nearly a decade to surpass both 2 trillion yuan in trading volume and margin financing [3][4] Group 2: Company Announcements and Financial Results - JD Group reported Q2 revenue of 356.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, reaching a three-year high [11] - Net income for NetEase in Q2 was 27.9 billion yuan, a 9.4% year-on-year growth, slightly below the forecast of 28.4 billion yuan [12] - Cambrian Technology announced that information regarding a large order of carrier boards from a certain manufacturer was inaccurate [8] - China Shipbuilding Industry announced a stock swap to absorb China Heavy Industry, and has submitted an application for voluntary delisting from A-shares [9] - Zhongchi Holdings announced that its largest shareholder, Changjiang Environmental Group, plans to transfer 24.73% of its shares through a public solicitation [10] Group 3: Industry Developments - 152 energy storage companies have voiced against internal competition, covering lithium-ion, flow, and sodium-ion battery supply chain units, indicating a potential industry consensus and self-regulation [2] - Tianpu Co. announced that its actual controller is planning a change in company control, leading to a stock suspension starting tomorrow [13] - Kangda New Materials plans to acquire 51% of Zhongke Huami's equity for 275 million yuan, aiming to enhance its assets in the special integrated circuit design and testing sector [14] - Dayuan Pump Industry reported that its liquid cooling temperature control business is part of its original operations, with related product sales revenue of approximately 1.6 million yuan in Q1 [15] Group 4: Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The U.S. 30-year mortgage rate stands at 6.58%, marking a fourth consecutive week of decline and the lowest level since October of the previous year [17] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July increased by 3.3% year-on-year, significantly higher than June's 2.3% and market expectations of 2.6%, representing the highest level since February [19]