Core Viewpoint - Dalian is experiencing a resurgence in its real estate market, with new home prices rising significantly, paralleling the growth seen in Shanghai, indicating a potential recovery in the city's economic landscape [1][3][5]. Real Estate Market Dynamics - In April, Dalian's new home prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, ranking first nationally alongside Shanghai, and it was the only city in Northeast China to see a price increase [3][7]. - The average new home price in Dalian exceeded 14,500 yuan per square meter throughout April, with peaks reaching 15,000 yuan in the first week [4]. - The increase in new home prices is attributed to high-end projects in the main urban area, which have significantly influenced the overall market [4][5]. - Despite the monthly price increase, Dalian's new home prices still reflect a year-on-year decline of 4.1%, indicating a recovery from a low base rather than a full market rebound [7][8]. Historical Context and Economic Development - Dalian's economic history includes a peak period from the 1980s to 1990s, where it ranked among the top ten cities in GDP, but faced stagnation in the 2000s [1][12]. - The city aims to achieve a GDP growth target of 5.5% by 2025, which would make it the first city in Northeast China to surpass the trillion yuan mark [1][12]. - The second industry, particularly petrochemicals and equipment manufacturing, has been a significant contributor to Dalian's economic growth, with a reported increase of 9% in 2023 [13]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The real estate market has shown signs of warming, with a 12.6% year-on-year increase in sales revenue in the first quarter, despite a 2.4% decline in sales area [5][6]. - The demand for larger residential units has increased, with three-bedroom units becoming the mainstream choice, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [9]. - Dalian's real estate market is expected to continue facing challenges, but with policy support and urban redevelopment opportunities, there is potential for significant market growth [9][14].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see significant performance improvement in Q1 2025, with projected net profit increasing by 45.58% to 56.49% year-on-year [5][8] - The company achieved a revenue of 10.02 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.87%, and a net profit of 868 million yuan, also up 9.94% year-on-year [4][6] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.15% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.55% [5] - The company expects to achieve a net profit of 200 million to 215 million yuan in Q1 2025, compared to an increase of 62.615 million to 77.615 million yuan year-on-year [5][8] - The company’s revenue from synthetic resin products reached 5.343 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.33% [6] Market Performance - The company's stock has outperformed the CSI 300 index over the past 12 months, with a 45.6% increase compared to the index's 8.2% [3] - The current stock price is 27.26 yuan, with a 52-week price range of 17.14 to 32.01 yuan [3] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11.678 billion, 13.041 billion, and 14.879 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.273 billion, 1.421 billion, and 1.633 billion yuan [10][13] - The company is expected to maintain a PE ratio of 18, 16, and 14 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [10]