全球OLED面板出货量稳健增长，在智能手机、平板、笔电、车载等领域的渗透率有望不断提升。25H1 我国显示面板全球份额首超50%，国内面板厂商相继布局高世代OLED产线，叠层OLED等新技术不断 推进，带动OLED材料需求进一步增长。2024年全球OLED显示材料市场销售额达24.4亿美元，预计 2031年达84.98亿美元，2025-2031年CAGR为19.8%。2024年我国OLED有机材料(终端+前端材料)市场规 模约为57亿元，同比大幅提升31%。目前OLED通用辅助材料国产化率约为12%，终端材料国产化率不 足5%，国内厂商不断进行国产化突破，同时随着国内OLED面板产能和市占率的扩张，国产OLED有机 发光材料市场空间有望持续扩大。另一方面，PSPI材料性能优异，与传统光刻胶相比可简化光刻工艺， 是OLED显示制程的核心主材。日本和美国企业占据全球PSPI主导地位。随着我国集成电路、OLED面 板等产业需求的进一步扩大，国内PSPI市场规模有望持续扩增，国产产品放量可期。 投资建议 智通财经APP获悉，中银国际发布研报称，受益于下游行业快速发展、先进技术不断迭代以及国产替代 大背景，电子材料领域 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the basic chemical sector is expected to show significant growth, with a year-to-date increase of +41.4% as of December 26, 2025, ranking it fifth among all industries [3] - The basic chemical industry experienced a cyclical pattern in 2025, characterized by weak performance in the first half, a rebound driven by improved expectations in the middle, and active structural trends in the latter part of the year [3] - The performance of the basic chemical sector varied significantly across sub-industries, with lithium battery materials and phosphate chemicals benefiting from better-than-expected production and supply-demand improvements, leading to substantial price increases [3] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is gradually recovering, establishing a bottoming trend for the chemical industry, with downstream companies in a replenishment phase, which is expected to improve profitability [4] - The agricultural chemicals sector performed relatively well, with high prices for phosphate and potash fertilizers, while the pesticide industry is entering an initial recovery phase [4] - The lithium battery materials sector is seeing a significant recovery in profitability due to strong terminal demand and orderly expansion by leading companies [4] Group 3 - Emerging application areas such as AI, OLED, and robotics are becoming new growth engines for the basic chemical industry, driving strong demand for new materials [5] - The semiconductor industry is expanding due to increased AI computing power and data center construction, which in turn boosts demand for key materials like photoresists and electronic chemicals [5] - The rapid development of the humanoid robot industry is creating new demand for high-performance materials, with specific materials like PEEK and MXD6 showing high application potential due to their lightweight and high-strength characteristics [5]

电子 | 证券研究报告 — 行业深度 2025 年 12 月 23 日 强于大市 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 股价 | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 菲利华 | 300395.SZ 人民币 89.18 | 买入 | | 中材科技 | 002080.SZ 人民币 33.04 | 买入 | | 东材科技 | 601208.SH 人民币 22.02 | 买入 | 资料来源： Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 12 月 19 日当地货币收市价为标准 AI Infra 升级浪潮中的材料 革命 电子布、铜箔、树脂构筑 AI PCB 介电性能核心 壁垒 AI 推理需求催化云厂商资本开支，计算效率和互联带宽协同升级。AI PCB 是 AI Infra 升级浪潮中的核心增量环节。AI PCB 三大原材料电子布、铜箔、 树脂则是构筑 PCB 介电性能的核心壁垒。 支撑评级的要点 投资建议 石英纤维布和低介电电子布建议关注菲利华、中材科技、宏和科技。HVLP 铜箔建议关注德福科技、隆扬电子、铜冠铜箔。高频高速树脂建议关注 东材科技、圣泉集团。 评级面临的主要风险 AI 市场需求过热引发行业泡沫。远期供 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Market Outlook**: The stock market is expected to accelerate in the short term, with a positive outlook for technology and non-bank sectors. Opportunities in cyclical and consumer goods are also worth noting. The impact of institutional profit protection and reduced positions on the market has been largely digested, with the ChiNext showing strong performance, indicating that the technology market is far from over [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Strategy**: The focus remains on technology and non-bank sectors, while also considering transformation opportunities in cyclical and consumer goods. The liquidity aspect suggests that the market's adjustment is more about liquidity than value judgment [3][4]. - **Economic Policy**: The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized stabilizing investment and reducing inventory in real estate, aiming to address the negative growth in investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) [4][5]. - **Market Style Prediction for 2026**: The market is expected to favor quality growth or a return to fundamental strategies, with opportunities in both technology and non-technology sectors, as well as large-cap and small-cap stocks [5][6]. Sector-Specific Insights Aviation Industry - **Investment Logic**: The aviation sector's investment logic for the next two years is based on favorable oil prices, exchange rates, and national policies to boost consumption. High passenger load factors are expected to shift towards price increases, improving supply-demand dynamics and profitability [8][9]. Oil Shipping Industry - **Current Fundamentals**: The oil shipping industry remains robust, with crude oil freight rates maintaining high levels. The fourth quarter and annual profits are expected to reach a ten-year high. The supply-demand relationship in the compliant market continues to improve, with optimistic expectations reflected in rising one-year charter rates [10]. Chemical Industry - **Market Performance**: The chemical market is showing strength, particularly in new energy chemical materials. The spandex sector is expected to see a turning point, with companies like Huafeng Chemical showing potential due to cost advantages [11][12]. Metal Industry - **Future Outlook**: The metal industry is expected to be in a bull market phase, with optimism driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Industrial metals like copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to perform well, with strong demand driven by AI trends [14][15]. Petrochemical Industry - **Oil Price Predictions**: Oil prices are expected to face pressure in the first half of the year but may recover in the second half due to improving supply-demand dynamics. Companies like CNOOC and PetroChina are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [16][17]. Coal Market - **Short-Term and Long-Term Predictions**: The coal market is currently experiencing a price correction but is expected to stabilize between 650-670 RMB. Long-term, coal prices may enter a new upward cycle, with companies like China Shenhua and Yanzhou Coal Mining recommended for their production capacity [22]. Additional Noteworthy Points - **Investment Recommendations**: Specific companies and sectors are highlighted for potential investment, including technology stocks, financial services, and cyclical consumer goods that can successfully transition [6][7][27]. - **Public Utilities Concerns**: The public utilities sector faces concerns regarding electricity prices, but companies with strong dividend commitments are recommended for investment [26]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future expectations across various sectors.

新材料50ETF（159761）跟踪的是新材料指数（H30597），该指数主要选取从事新型材料研发、生产和 销售的上市公司证券作为指数样本，成分股具有高技术含量和创新性强的特征，广泛应用于新能源、电 子信息、生物医药等领域。指数行业配置侧重于化工新材料、金属新材料及非金属新材料等细分领域， 以反映新材料相关上市公司证券的整体表现。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 光大证券指出，2025年中央经济工作会议强调坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能，新兴应用领域的高 景气度成为新材料行业增长引擎。AI算力与数据中心扩建、智能驾驶渗透提升拉动半导体材料需求， 光刻胶、湿电子化学品与电子特气等核心材料处于"需求扩张+国产替代加速"共振阶段。OLED领域保 持高增速，有机材料市场规模及国产化率快速提升。人形机器人产业链发展带来PEEK与MXD6等高性 能材料新增需求，其轻量化、高强度特性在机器人领域应用潜力显著。此外，AI浪潮推动高频高速树 脂与液冷材料需求增长。新材料行业整体受益于技术创新与国产替代双重驱动，细分赛道成长性突出。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of policy coordination to stabilize and promote high-quality economic development, focusing on domestic demand, innovation, reform, and openness as key areas for 2025 [3][4][5] - The 2025 Central Economic Work Conference outlined eight key tasks, including building a strong domestic market, enhancing innovation-driven growth, and promoting green transformation [3][4] - The article highlights the ongoing reform of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and the positive outlook for the "Three Oil Giants" (China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC) due to their strong production growth and contribution to energy security [4] Group 2 - The chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in its economic landscape as capital expenditure decreases and demand gradually improves, despite a recent decline in fixed asset investment [5] - The article notes that the semiconductor industry is experiencing growth driven by AI and data center expansion, which is increasing the demand for key materials such as photoresists and electronic chemicals [6] - The rapid development of the humanoid robot industry is creating new demand for high-performance materials, with specific materials like PEEK and MXD6 showing significant potential due to their lightweight and high-strength properties [6]

周期论剑电话会议 顺周期跨年行情推荐 20251207 摘要 预计明年初货币政策可能宽松，金融监管总局下调保险公司权益入市风 险因子并拓宽券商资本空间，提升市场风险偏好。12 月至 2 月或是政策、 流动性和基本面向上共振的窗口期，建议关注科技成长、大金融和周期 类资产。 预计 2026 年全 A 股非金融业绩增长约 10.6%，股市盈利不再仅依赖传 统周期行业。未上市保险公司将在 2026 年实行新会计准则，预计保险 资金入市增量可能超过万亿，改善流动性环境。 重申航空板块前景乐观，预计 2025 年第四季度行业大幅减亏并全年扭 亏，2026 年需求增长将驱动票价和盈利上行，建议逆向布局航空超级 周期，包括国航、吉祥、东航、南航及春秋航空等公司。 预计第四季度及全年原油轮盈利创十年来新高，中东和南美原油增产效 应显现，印度缩减俄油进口驱动运价飙升。推荐中远海能、招商轮船、 招商南油、中国船舶租赁等公司。 化工板块目前处于底部状态，部分品种开始修复，反内卷政策推动带来 利好。应积极配置具备成本优势且新增产能带动业绩提升的龙头企业， 如煤化工龙头华鲁恒升。关注磷酸铁锂电解液、正丁醇、新醇等品种价 格上涨带来的投 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The chemical sector, including phosphate fertilizers, fluorochemicals, and potash fertilizers, has seen significant stock price increases, with companies like Xingfa Group rising over 5%, Duofu Du increasing over 4%, and Salt Lake Co. up over 3% [1] - The basic chemical sector has attracted substantial capital inflow, with a net inflow of over 7.7 billion yuan in a single day, ranking second among 30 sectors [2][3] - Over the past five trading days, the basic chemical sector has accumulated a total capital inflow of 18.8 billion yuan, also ranking second among the sectors [2][3] Group 2: Industry Insights - Domestic policies frequently emphasize supply-side requirements, while rising raw material costs and capacity reductions in Europe and the U.S. have impacted chemical companies [3] - China's chemical industry is expected to fill gaps in the international supply chain due to its competitive advantages in cost and technology [3] - The chemical ETF (516020) is positioned as a high-efficiency investment vehicle, covering various sub-sectors and concentrating on large-cap stocks [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The electronic chemicals and potash fertilizer sub-sectors are expected to perform strongly, driven by demand expansion and domestic substitution in semiconductor materials [5] - OLED organic materials are projected to reach a market size of 7.4 billion yuan by 2025, supported by increased market share from domestic panel manufacturers [5] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the sub-sector index and is expected to provide a balanced exposure to the chemical industry, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leaders [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][4][16] Core Insights - The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 12.9% for the first three quarters of 2025, with a net profit attributable to the parent company increasing by 30.8% [4][5] - The performance in Q3 showed a revenue increase of 7.8% year-on-year but a decline of 5.9% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit growth of 3.7% year-on-year and a decrease of 12.1% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The company is expected to leverage its advantages in the industrial chain for technological research and market expansion, aiming to become a leading provider of biomass and chemical new material solutions globally [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a sales volume of 61,100 tons for advanced electronic materials and battery materials, a year-on-year increase of 19.01%, with sales revenue of 1.237 billion yuan, up 32.23% [5][10] - The synthetic resin segment maintained resilience with a sales volume of 588,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.90%, and sales revenue of 4.096 billion yuan, up 4.64% [5][10] - Biomass product sales volume reached 171,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 30.17%, with sales revenue of 660 million yuan, up 25.22% [5][10] - The company's gross margin and net margin for the first three quarters of 2025 were 24.86% and 9.69%, respectively, showing improvements compared to the previous year [5][12] Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.076 billion yuan, 1.386 billion yuan, and 1.659 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][7] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 1.27 yuan, 1.64 yuan, and 1.96 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 23.9, 18.6, and 15.5 [4][7][12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in profitability due to macroeconomic improvements and supply-side policy advancements, with a focus on sectors like phosphate chemicals, potassium fertilizers, pesticides, MDI, titanium dioxide, and lithium battery materials [1] - The macroeconomic environment has shown steady recovery since 2025, with expectations for CPI to return to positive territory by Q4 2025 and a gradual narrowing of PPI's year-on-year decline, indicating a bottoming out phase for the chemical industry [1] - The chemical industry's capital expenditure is currently contracting, and the pace of new capacity additions is slowing, which is beneficial for improving supply-demand relationships [1] Group 2 - The chemical industry's PB valuation is at historical lows, suggesting significant upside potential, while PE valuation reflects market pricing in future recovery [2] - The agricultural chemicals sector is performing relatively well, with high prices for phosphate and potassium fertilizers, and the pesticide industry entering a recovery phase [2] - The lithium battery materials sector is seeing improved profitability trends due to strong end-demand and orderly expansion by leading companies [2] Group 3 - Emerging applications in AI, OLED, and robotics are driving strong growth in the chemical new materials sector, with significant demand for key materials like photoresists and electronic chemicals [3] - The OLED market is experiencing rapid growth, with domestic panel manufacturers increasing their market share and the scale of organic materials expanding [3] - The robotics industry is creating new demand for high-performance materials such as PEEK and MXD6, which are characterized by lightweight, high strength, and high-temperature resistance [3]