坐拥高品位金矿，成本效益领先同行。公司主要产品为合质金，目前已拥有6 座金矿与1座铅锌银多金 属矿，2024 年收购纳米比亚osino 金矿，正式迈出海外并购步伐，较大扩充公司黄金资源量（2024 年底 公司黄金资源量277 吨，osnio 占比接近50%）。公司旗下金矿均为大型且品位较高的矿山，平均品位 1.7 克/吨，2024 年合质金产量8 吨，全维持683.5美元/盎司，位于全球黄金开采全维持成本曲线前 10%，矿金毛利率70%以上，成本效益领先同行。2023 年山东黄金收购成为公司控股股东，持股 28.89%。 风险提示：金价下行，产量不及预期，项目建设不及预期 内生外延打开成长空间，持续关注收并购机会：1）存量金矿有增产空间：公司旗下黑河洛克、吉林板 庙子、青海大柴旦三座在产高品位优质黄金矿山，2024 年产金8 吨，其中青海大柴旦具备较大增储潜 力，大柴旦青龙沟、细晶沟项目投产后，年产金将由现有的3.5 吨增至4.6 吨以上；2）待产项目投产后 矿金产量增加约7 吨：芒市华盛金矿（权益60%）复产建成后年产金有望1.9 吨，目前矿权整合取得积 极进展；纳米比亚osino 项目（100%权益）核心 ...

展望2025年四季度，预计原油市场供给增加，国际油价中枢下移；美联储重启降息周期，黄金价格短期 内将迎来上行空间；全球供给增速低于需求增速，铜价维持偏强震荡运行。（中经记者 谭志娟） 0:00 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the rising gold prices, with a projected net profit of 6.87 billion, 8.50 billion, and 9.48 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 21, 17, and 15 [7]. - The company has a strong resource endowment, with a total gold resource of approximately 2,058 tons, and has been actively expanding its resource base through acquisitions and internal exploration [6][47]. - The ongoing projects are expected to enhance the company's production capacity, with significant contributions anticipated from the Kaidino, Jiaoji, and Xiling gold mines [60]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 110.23 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.6% [2]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 132.6% in 2025, reaching 6.87 billion yuan [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.53 yuan in 2025, increasing to 2.12 yuan by 2027 [2]. Market Data - As of June 26, 2025, the company's closing price was 32.71 yuan, with a market capitalization of 118.23 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 5.7 and a dividend yield of 0.67% [3]. Resource and Production Capacity - The company has a total of 16 operating gold mines, with a production capacity of over 1 ton of gold per mine, contributing to 15% of the domestic gold production [6][15]. - The company’s gold production in 2024 is expected to be 46.2 tons, with a significant increase in production anticipated from new projects [55][60]. Strategic Expansion - The company has been actively acquiring resources, including the control of Shanjin International, which enhances its resource strength [6][47]. - The company plans to continue its expansion through both internal exploration and external acquisitions, with a focus on integrating its resources effectively [47][52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.37 RMB [8][9]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated robust operational performance with a revenue of 65.56 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.01%, and a net profit of 3.39 billion RMB, up 13.71% year-over-year [1][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed strong results, with revenue reaching 14.86 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 12.88%, and a net profit of 1.04 billion RMB, up 32.65% year-over-year [1][3]. - The company plans to produce 18.17 tons of gold and 79,400 tons of copper in 2025, with additional resource increases of 33.5 tons of gold and 120,000 tons of copper [2]. Financial Performance - The average prices for gold and copper in 2024 increased by 23.83% and 9.67% year-over-year, respectively, contributing to the company's performance despite asset impairment losses of 590 million RMB [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued to benefit from rising metal prices, with gold and copper prices increasing by 37.2% and 11.52% year-over-year [3][4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.94 RMB, with expected growth rates of 34.11% and 26.99% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [5][7]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17.41 for 2025, compared to the industry average of 15.83, reflecting the company's unique position as a state-owned enterprise in the gold sector [5][13]. - The projected market capitalization is approximately 67.72 billion RMB, with a closing price of 13.97 RMB as of April 29, 2025 [9].