平安证券指出，中长期而言，美国债务问题未解及美元信用走弱的主线逻辑持续，叠加央行购金和投资 需求增长，黄金价格重心有望继续上移。中期看，黄金避险属性仍处于放大阶段；长期看，特朗普上任 后美元信用弱化将加速黄金货币属性凸显，持续看好其趋势性上行。 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Insights - Shandong Gold expects net profit attributable to shareholders to reach between 3.8 billion to 4.1 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 83.9% to 98.5% [2] - The increase in profit is attributed to optimized production layout, enhanced core technology, improved management efficiency, and favorable gold price trends [2] Financial Performance - For the years 2024 to Q2 2025, the company projects revenues of 82.518 billion RMB, 25.935 billion RMB, and 56.766 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.21%, 36.81%, and 24.01% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is expected to be 2.952 billion RMB, 1.026 billion RMB, and 2.808 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.80%, 46.62%, and 102.98% respectively [4] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is reported at 63.54%, 63.63%, and 63.11% during the same period [4] Company Overview - Shandong Gold was established on January 31, 2000, with a registered capital of approximately 4.609 billion RMB [3] - The company primarily engages in gold mining and processing, as well as the production and sales of mining equipment and construction materials [3] - The company has 69 subsidiaries, including various financial and investment management firms [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 32, 24, and 19 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.052 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54.10%, and a net profit of 2.117 billion yuan, up 140.43% year-on-year. However, the Q3 performance was below expectations [1][2]. - The average gold price for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3,203 USD/ounce, a 39.64% increase year-on-year, with Q3's average price at 3,459 USD/ounce, reflecting a 39.88% year-on-year increase [2]. - The company faced challenges due to impairment losses and other factors, including a significant impairment loss of approximately 720 million yuan, which was a 73.6% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 38.58%, a decrease of 4.36 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 7.40 percentage points to 23.11% [2]. - The company’s operating expenses for the first three quarters were 0.22 billion yuan in sales expenses, 1.068 billion yuan in management expenses, and 0.273 billion yuan in financial expenses, with year-on-year changes of +0.01 billion, +1.01 billion, and -0.65 billion respectively [2]. - The company is expected to see steady growth in production and profitability due to rising gold prices, with projected net profits of 3.267 billion, 4.347 billion, and 5.654 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5]. Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its resource base through exploration and acquisitions, including investments in overseas projects such as Delarob and Sierra Leone West Gold, and has formed a partnership to hold a 20% stake in Zhongrun Resources [3]. - The company’s Haiyu Gold Mine, in which it holds a 70% stake, is progressing well, with an expected annual gold production of 15-20 tons once fully operational [3].

坐拥高品位金矿，成本效益领先同行。公司主要产品为合质金，目前已拥有6 座金矿与1座铅锌银多金 属矿，2024 年收购纳米比亚osino 金矿，正式迈出海外并购步伐，较大扩充公司黄金资源量（2024 年底 公司黄金资源量277 吨，osnio 占比接近50%）。公司旗下金矿均为大型且品位较高的矿山，平均品位 1.7 克/吨，2024 年合质金产量8 吨，全维持683.5美元/盎司，位于全球黄金开采全维持成本曲线前 10%，矿金毛利率70%以上，成本效益领先同行。2023 年山东黄金收购成为公司控股股东，持股 28.89%。 风险提示：金价下行，产量不及预期，项目建设不及预期 内生外延打开成长空间，持续关注收并购机会：1）存量金矿有增产空间：公司旗下黑河洛克、吉林板 庙子、青海大柴旦三座在产高品位优质黄金矿山，2024 年产金8 吨，其中青海大柴旦具备较大增储潜 力，大柴旦青龙沟、细晶沟项目投产后，年产金将由现有的3.5 吨增至4.6 吨以上；2）待产项目投产后 矿金产量增加约7 吨：芒市华盛金矿（权益60%）复产建成后年产金有望1.9 吨，目前矿权整合取得积 极进展；纳米比亚osino 项目（100%权益）核心 ...

展望2025年四季度，预计原油市场供给增加，国际油价中枢下移；美联储重启降息周期，黄金价格短期 内将迎来上行空间；全球供给增速低于需求增速，铜价维持偏强震荡运行。（中经记者 谭志娟） 0:00 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the rising gold prices, with a projected net profit of 6.87 billion, 8.50 billion, and 9.48 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 21, 17, and 15 [7]. - The company has a strong resource endowment, with a total gold resource of approximately 2,058 tons, and has been actively expanding its resource base through acquisitions and internal exploration [6][47]. - The ongoing projects are expected to enhance the company's production capacity, with significant contributions anticipated from the Kaidino, Jiaoji, and Xiling gold mines [60]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to reach 110.23 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.6% [2]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 132.6% in 2025, reaching 6.87 billion yuan [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.53 yuan in 2025, increasing to 2.12 yuan by 2027 [2]. Market Data - As of June 26, 2025, the company's closing price was 32.71 yuan, with a market capitalization of 118.23 billion yuan [3]. - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 5.7 and a dividend yield of 0.67% [3]. Resource and Production Capacity - The company has a total of 16 operating gold mines, with a production capacity of over 1 ton of gold per mine, contributing to 15% of the domestic gold production [6][15]. - The company’s gold production in 2024 is expected to be 46.2 tons, with a significant increase in production anticipated from new projects [55][60]. Strategic Expansion - The company has been actively acquiring resources, including the control of Shanjin International, which enhances its resource strength [6][47]. - The company plans to continue its expansion through both internal exploration and external acquisitions, with a focus on integrating its resources effectively [47][52].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 16.37 RMB [8][9]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated robust operational performance with a revenue of 65.56 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 7.01%, and a net profit of 3.39 billion RMB, up 13.71% year-over-year [1][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed strong results, with revenue reaching 14.86 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 12.88%, and a net profit of 1.04 billion RMB, up 32.65% year-over-year [1][3]. - The company plans to produce 18.17 tons of gold and 79,400 tons of copper in 2025, with additional resource increases of 33.5 tons of gold and 120,000 tons of copper [2]. Financial Performance - The average prices for gold and copper in 2024 increased by 23.83% and 9.67% year-over-year, respectively, contributing to the company's performance despite asset impairment losses of 590 million RMB [3]. - The first quarter of 2025 continued to benefit from rising metal prices, with gold and copper prices increasing by 37.2% and 11.52% year-over-year [3][4]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at 0.94 RMB, with expected growth rates of 34.11% and 26.99% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [5][7]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17.41 for 2025, compared to the industry average of 15.83, reflecting the company's unique position as a state-owned enterprise in the gold sector [5][13]. - The projected market capitalization is approximately 67.72 billion RMB, with a closing price of 13.97 RMB as of April 29, 2025 [9].