每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——核电建设热潮下，设备厂忙到"飞起"！订单已排至2028年，员工三班倒， 产线24小时不停 （记者 王晓波） 每经AI快讯，山东黄金1月30日晚间发布业绩预告，公司预计2025年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利 润为46亿元~49亿元，与上年同期相比增加16亿元~19亿元，同比增加56%~66%。业绩变动主要原因 是，2025年，公司统筹优化生产布局，实现生产效率与资源利用、项目建设协同提升，同时叠加黄金价 格上行因素，利润同比增加。同时，公司坚持稳中有进、行稳致远，统筹把握长远可持续发展与当前业 绩关系，抓住金价高企有利时机，进一步夯实发展根基，积蓄发展动能。加大井巷开拓工程等生产性投 入，持续强化矿山深部及周边探矿，科学提升在建矿山建设进度；合理调整矿山边际品位，充分利用低 品位矿石资源；推进矿山采掘外委施工逐步转为自营，加大智能化投入，建强产业工人队伍，提升本质 安全水平。上述一系列措施有利于推动公司更加长远、健康、可持续发展，为公司"十五五"期间高质量 发展奠定坚实基础。 ...

格隆汇1月29日丨武商集团(000501.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，近期黄金价格呈现持续上行态势，公司 黄金类库存整体规模与上年同期相比保持稳定，库存结构根据市场消费需求及公司经营节奏动态优化， 目前库存水平能够充分匹配日常经营销售、市场订单交付等业务需求。 ...

宏 观 研 究 2026 年 01 月 28 日 投资要点： 一、美联储降息"前紧后松" 我们认为，美国货币政策将呈现出"前紧后松"的特征。如果鲍威 尔在任期内仍然维持略显鹰派的政策态度，那么，下半年，我们预计 会迎来美联储的报复式降息 二、美元还会明显走弱 宏 观 专 在当前美元指数已经降破 97 的时候，美元在 26 年还会进一步的 走弱么？我们的答案依然是肯定的。基于对美联储货币政策"前紧后 松"的判断，我们预计，宽松的货币政策环境，叠加全球各国对于安全 需求的上升，美元或将继续走弱。 三、人民币汇率步入升值通道 题 我们认为，人民币汇率已经步入中期的升值通道。近来我们看到 人民币汇率正在向出口增速中枢复归，6.8 左右是较为匹配当前出口态 势的水平，如果考虑到人民币汇率在升贬值过程中往往容易出现超调， 那么，人民币汇率有进一步向上升破 6.8 的可能。 四、外需与内需会再平衡 人民币汇率在某种意义上，是横亘在内需和外需之间的"分配线"。 我们认为，人民币汇率步入中期升值通道的过程，其实也就是我国在 政策层面对外需和内需的再平衡。部分产品出口退税的削减乃至消除， 也能够证明内需在政策考量中的相对重要性逐 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a steady upward trend, driven by unresolved U.S. debt issues and weakening dollar credibility, with increasing central bank gold purchases and investment demand for gold [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The macroeconomic uncertainties abroad continue to amplify gold's safe-haven attributes in the medium term [1] - The long-term trend indicates that since Trump's administration, the weakening of dollar credibility has become increasingly evident, enhancing gold's monetary properties [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - In the medium to long term, gold prices are expected to rise further, suggesting that investors may consider participating during subsequent pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) as well as gold stock ETFs covering the entire gold industry chain (517400) are recommended for investors [1]

Group 1 - COMEX gold has surpassed $4600 per ounce, reaching a new high, with gold ETF (518800) rising nearly 2% during trading [1][2] - Recent geopolitical events, such as the U.S. actions against Venezuela, have stimulated demand for safe-haven assets, supporting gold prices [2] - The long-term trend indicates a restructuring of monetary credit, with an increasing U.S. fiscal deficit leading to central bank gold purchases, which is expected to drive gold prices higher [2] Group 2 - The current inflow of funds into gold ETFs has exceeded 6 billion yuan over the past 60 days, indicating strong investor interest [1][2] - The decline in real interest rates following rate cuts is likely to attract more investments into gold ETFs, suggesting a potential recovery in the valuation of precious metals [2] - Investors are encouraged to consider direct investments in physical gold and tax-exempt gold fund ETFs (518800), as well as gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that the recent actions by the Trump administration, including the kidnapping of Venezuelan President Maduro, reflect the implementation of the "Monroe Doctrine Trump Theory" as outlined in the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy, aimed at increasing control over South American countries [1] Group 1: U.S. Actions and Implications - The U.S. military's ability to conduct such "kidnapping" or "decapitation" operations has diminished, making it challenging to execute similar actions outside of South America [1] - The actions taken by the U.S. are seen as undermining national credibility and accelerating the deterioration of the rules-based international order [1] Group 2: Economic Impact on Gold - Since the 21st century, central banks from non-South American countries have been the primary buyers of gold [1] - Following the Venezuelan incident, it is anticipated that gold prices will rise more rapidly during Trump's term due to the geopolitical tensions created by such actions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The long-term outlook for gold prices is positive due to unresolved U.S. debt issues and weakening U.S. dollar credit, alongside increasing central bank gold purchases and investment demand [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In the medium term, the safe-haven attribute of gold is expected to amplify [1] - The weakening of U.S. dollar credit since Trump's administration is likely to accelerate the monetary properties of gold [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider participating in gold investments during subsequent pullbacks and to gradually accumulate positions [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) are recommended, along with gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

Core Insights - Shandong Gold expects net profit attributable to shareholders to reach between 3.8 billion to 4.1 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 83.9% to 98.5% [2] - The increase in profit is attributed to optimized production layout, enhanced core technology, improved management efficiency, and favorable gold price trends [2] Financial Performance - For the years 2024 to Q2 2025, the company projects revenues of 82.518 billion RMB, 25.935 billion RMB, and 56.766 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 39.21%, 36.81%, and 24.01% respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the same period is expected to be 2.952 billion RMB, 1.026 billion RMB, and 2.808 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 26.80%, 46.62%, and 102.98% respectively [4] - The company's debt-to-asset ratio is reported at 63.54%, 63.63%, and 63.11% during the same period [4] Company Overview - Shandong Gold was established on January 31, 2000, with a registered capital of approximately 4.609 billion RMB [3] - The company primarily engages in gold mining and processing, as well as the production and sales of mining equipment and construction materials [3] - The company has 69 subsidiaries, including various financial and investment management firms [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with expected price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 32, 24, and 19 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 12.052 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 54.10%, and a net profit of 2.117 billion yuan, up 140.43% year-on-year. However, the Q3 performance was below expectations [1][2]. - The average gold price for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3,203 USD/ounce, a 39.64% increase year-on-year, with Q3's average price at 3,459 USD/ounce, reflecting a 39.88% year-on-year increase [2]. - The company faced challenges due to impairment losses and other factors, including a significant impairment loss of approximately 720 million yuan, which was a 73.6% increase year-on-year [2][3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 38.58%, a decrease of 4.36 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased by 7.40 percentage points to 23.11% [2]. - The company’s operating expenses for the first three quarters were 0.22 billion yuan in sales expenses, 1.068 billion yuan in management expenses, and 0.273 billion yuan in financial expenses, with year-on-year changes of +0.01 billion, +1.01 billion, and -0.65 billion respectively [2]. - The company is expected to see steady growth in production and profitability due to rising gold prices, with projected net profits of 3.267 billion, 4.347 billion, and 5.654 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5]. Strategic Developments - The company is expanding its resource base through exploration and acquisitions, including investments in overseas projects such as Delarob and Sierra Leone West Gold, and has formed a partnership to hold a 20% stake in Zhongrun Resources [3]. - The company’s Haiyu Gold Mine, in which it holds a 70% stake, is progressing well, with an expected annual gold production of 15-20 tons once fully operational [3].

Core Viewpoint - The company is positioned to benefit from rising gold prices due to its high-quality gold mines and cost-effective operations, with significant growth potential from both existing and new projects [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Operations - The company currently operates six gold mines and one polymetallic mine, with an expected gold resource increase to 277 tons by the end of 2024, of which the Osino mine will contribute nearly 50% [1]. - The average grade of the company's gold mines is 1.7 grams per ton, with a projected gold production of 8 tons in 2024 and an all-in sustaining cost of $683.5 per ounce, placing it in the top 10% of global gold mining cost curves [1]. - The company has a gross margin of over 70% on mined gold, indicating superior cost efficiency compared to peers [1]. Group 2: Market Trends - The upward trend in precious metal prices is expected to continue, driven by the shift in gold's core pricing factors from yield to safety due to geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar reserve credit [1]. - China's central bank's gold reserves are currently at 6.7%, which is relatively low compared to global standards, suggesting potential for increased gold purchases [1]. - Historical data shows a significant negative correlation between gold ETFs and real interest rates, with expectations of declining real interest rates and increased gold ETF inflows by 2025 [1]. Group 3: Growth Opportunities - The company has identified growth opportunities through both existing mines and potential acquisitions, with plans to increase production from its current mines and new projects [2]. - The company’s existing mines, including Heihe Luoke, Jilin Banmiaozi, and Qinghai Dachaidan, have the potential to increase gold production from 8 tons in 2024, with significant growth expected from the Qinghai Dachaidan project [2]. - The company is planning to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange to enhance its acquisition funding capabilities and is actively seeking high-quality asset acquisition opportunities [2]. Group 4: Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.48 billion, 3.91 billion, and 5.34 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 16, and 12 times, which are below the industry average [3]. - The company’s stable production, high-grade resources, and low costs position it well to benefit from the gold price upcycle, with a clear growth path from upcoming projects [3]. - The company plans to issue H shares in June 2025, which will strengthen its acquisition funding advantage and support its growth strategy [2][3].