Group 1 - A weaker-than-expected U.S. employment report has increased traders' bets on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a probability of 89.4% according to the FedWatch tool [1] - The announcement by President Trump that there will be no tariffs on imported gold bars led to a significant drop in international gold prices, with a decline of over 2%, marking the largest drop in nearly three months [1] - The market is closely monitoring upcoming U.S. inflation reports and the uncertain global trade situation, which are critical for future gold price movements [1] Group 2 - Gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell nearly 2.5%, closing below $3,400 per ounce, the largest drop since May [2] - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection clarified the correct customs code for gold bars, which could lead to tariffs being applied, causing a spike in gold prices to a record $3,534.10 per ounce before the White House intervened [2] - Several gold suppliers, including those from Switzerland, have reportedly stopped shipments to the U.S. due to tariff uncertainties [2] Group 3 - The market is awaiting the latest U.S. price data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August set to be released soon [4] - The potential appointment of Stephen Miran to fill a vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board may lead to a more dovish monetary policy stance [4] - Analysts suggest that if inflation data exceeds expectations, it could provide the Fed with a reason to pause the anticipated rate cut, negatively impacting gold prices [4]

Core Viewpoint - The global gold market experienced significant volatility due to uncertainty surrounding tariff policies, but a statement from President Trump alleviated some concerns by confirming that gold would not be subject to tariffs [1][3]. Price Movements - On Monday, December gold futures fell by 2.5%, closing at $3,404.70 per ounce, marking the largest single-day percentage drop since May 12 [3]. - Spot gold decreased by 1.61%, settling at $3,342.88 per ounce, with an intraday low of $3,341.36 [3]. - COMEX gold futures hit a low of $3,397.30 during the day, while the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index fell by 0.45% to 229.26 points [3]. Tariff Impact - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection's unexpected ruling to classify gold bars under tariff codes, including a 39% tariff on Swiss exports, caught traders off guard and led to a spike in gold prices above $3,500 per ounce [3]. - The ruling raised concerns about the normal functioning of global gold bar trade and U.S. futures contracts [3]. Market Trends - Gold prices have risen approximately 30% this year, driven by uncertainties in U.S. economic policy and increased gold purchases by central banks [3]. - Following the tariff news, gold futures reached record highs before a subsequent price drop after the White House indicated that gold would be exempt from tariffs [3]. Geopolitical Factors - Analysts suggest that expectations of a potential consensus on the Russia-Ukraine conflict could also exert downward pressure on gold prices [4]. - The settlement price on Monday was the lowest since August 1, with a daily low of $3,399.80 per ounce [4]. Future Outlook - The White House plans to release a new policy document confirming the exemption of gold and other special items from tariffs [4]. - Despite the short-term alleviation of tariff risks, ongoing central bank purchases, fluctuating safe-haven demand, and geopolitical factors may keep gold prices in a high volatility range [4].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Beijing optimizes housing purchase restrictions, allowing eligible families to buy unlimited homes outside the Fifth Ring Road, and strengthens housing provident fund support in four aspects [2] - China conducts normal economic and trade energy cooperation with Russia, and will take reasonable energy security measures based on national interests [2] - In Q2, China's current account had a surplus of $135.1 billion, while the capital and financial account had a deficit of the same amount [2] - In July, China's CPI rose 0.4% month - on - month and was flat year - on - year, with core CPI rising 0.8% year - on - year. PPI fell 0.2% month - on - month and 3.6% year - on - year [3] - The Trump administration will clarify that imported gold bars should not be taxed [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - Beijing optimizes housing purchase restrictions and strengthens housing provident fund support [2] - China responds to the potential U.S. secondary tariffs on China for buying Russian oil [2] - China's Q2 current account and capital and financial account balance data are released [2] - China's July CPI and PPI data are announced with corresponding interpretations [3] - The Trump administration will clarify the tariff policy on gold bars [3] Plate Performance - Key focus: Urea, lithium carbonate, caustic soda, asphalt, crude oil [4] - Night - session performance: Non - metallic building materials 2.82%, precious metals 27.87%, oilseeds 12.66%, non - ferrous metals 20.64%, soft commodities 2.46%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.82%, energy 3.42%, chemicals 11.31%, grains 1.17%, agricultural and sideline products 2.83% [4] Plate Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index - 0.12% daily, 1.73% monthly, 8.45% annually; S&P 500 0.78% daily, 0.79% monthly, 8.63% annually, etc. [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year Treasury bond futures 0.03% daily, 0.14% monthly, - 0.26% annually; 5 - year Treasury bond futures 0.02% daily, 0.11% monthly, - 0.66% annually, etc. [6] - Commodity: CRB Commodity Index 0.07% daily, - 1.90% monthly, - 0.89% annually; WTI crude oil - 0.81% daily, - 8.47% monthly, - 11.90% annually, etc. [6] - Others: US Dollar Index 0.18% daily, - 1.78% monthly, - 9.42% annually; CBOE Volatility Index - 8.57% daily, - 9.39% monthly, - 12.68% annually [6]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government initially proposed a 39% tariff on gold bars, causing gold prices to spike, but later clarified that gold bars would not be subject to tariffs, leading to a correction in prices [1] Group 1: Market Impact - On August 7, gold prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange reached a historic high of $3,534 per ounce before the U.S. government's clarification [1] - By the end of the trading day, the December gold price settled at $3,491.30 per ounce, reflecting a 1.09% increase [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the tariff led two Swiss gold refineries to reduce or suspend gold exports to the U.S., which is expected to tighten supply and potentially increase futures prices in the short term [1] - International gold prices saw a cumulative increase of approximately 2.69% for the week [1] Group 2: Risk Management - On August 8, the Shanghai Gold Exchange issued a notice emphasizing the need for market risk control due to various destabilizing factors [1] - The notice urged members to enhance risk awareness and maintain emergency response plans to ensure market stability [1] - Investors were advised to manage their positions carefully and engage in rational investment practices [1]

Group 1 - The Trump administration plans to issue a new policy clarifying that gold bullion imports should not be subject to tariffs, aiming to calm the global gold market turmoil caused by a previous ruling from U.S. Customs and Border Protection [1][4] - Following the announcement, gold prices in New York and London experienced a narrowing of the price difference, which had previously surged to over $100 per ounce due to tariff concerns, now reduced to below $60 [1] - The initial market chaos was triggered by a ruling stating that gold bars weighing one kilogram and 100 ounces would be subject to "equivalent tariffs," which could have significant implications for the global gold market and disrupt U.S. gold futures contracts [4] Group 2 - The announcement from the White House led to a rapid decline in gold-related stocks, including Newmont Corp, Agnico Eagle Mines, Franco-Nevada, and VanEck Gold Miners ETF, as the market reacted to the news [4] - Analysts noted that gold serves as both a financial asset and an international currency, distinguishing it from industrial metals like copper, steel, and aluminum that were previously affected by tariffs [4] - The market anticipates that the issuance of a clarifying executive order will help alleviate the market turmoil caused by concerns over gold tariffs, although Trump administration officials have emphasized that future tariff policies will avoid broad exemptions to maintain tariff effectiveness [4]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. President Trump on August 15 in Alaska aims to discuss a long-term peace plan for Ukraine, indicating a potential diplomatic breakthrough in U.S.-Russia relations [2]. Group 1: Meeting Details - The meeting is scheduled for August 15, 2023, in Alaska, as confirmed by Russian presidential aide Ushakov [1]. - Trump stated that the U.S. and Russia are "very close" to reaching an agreement regarding the Ukraine issue [2]. Group 2: Impact on Gold Market - The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has classified major gold products, including one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, as items subject to tariffs, with a significant 39% tariff imposed on imports from Switzerland [2]. - As a result of the U.S. tariff policy, two Swiss gold refineries have reduced or suspended their exports to the U.S., leading to expectations of a short-term increase in New York gold futures prices due to supply constraints [2]. - UBS forecasts that if the U.S. continues its tariff policy on gold, the price spread between COMEX gold futures and London gold futures will widen, creating more arbitrage opportunities among different refining centers [2].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently in a consolidation phase around $3,300 per ounce, with investors awaiting clearer signals regarding interest rate policies and trade situations [1][2] Group 1: Market Conditions - Joe Cavatoni from the World Gold Council indicates that the recent imposition of a 50% tariff on copper imports by the U.S. government serves as a reminder that gold may also face similar tariff adjustments in the future [1] - The current price of gold reflects a lack of clarity among market participants regarding key driving factors, with prices remaining stable around $3,300 [2][3] - Gold has seen a significant increase of nearly 26% this year, which is notable compared to the average expected return rate of around 8% [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand - The annual growth rate of gold production is expected to remain between 1% and 2.5%, aligning with the World Gold Council's forecasts [3] - Small-scale artisanal mining contributes approximately 20% to the total gold supply, and the organization is taking measures to regulate this sector [3] - Central banks have been significant buyers of gold, accounting for about 20% to 25% of global annual gold consumption over the past three to four years [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - The World Gold Council anticipates that central banks will continue to be active in the gold market, with 50% of surveyed central banks planning to increase their gold holdings in the next 12 months [4] - A report on gold demand trends will be released soon, which is expected to show strong central bank demand for gold in the second quarter [4]