1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific industry investment rating [1][2][3][4][6][7][9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term asset allocation should be balanced. After the Fed's interest rate cut decision in the October meeting, the progress of China - US tariff talks, and the release of details from the 20th Fourth Plenary Session, it is expected to benefit overseas and domestic equity sectors (especially the science and technology innovation sector) and non - ferrous metals. Black commodities may also have a rebound opportunity due to domestic policy improvement, while precious metals may continue to adjust in the short term [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US government shutdown continued this week. China - US tariff expectations eased, and the CPI in September was lower than expected, strengthening the expectation of monetary easing. Reasons include the lower - than - expected September CPI, the 12th rejection of the temporary budget bill by the Senate, the increased economic downward pressure after the government shutdown, and the easing of China - US tariff expectations [6] - **Domestic Macro**: On October 28, the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" and its explanatory notes were released, emphasizing the strategic position of science and technology and emerging industries, and also covering areas such as boosting consumption, expanding effective investment, and "anti - involution" [6] - **Asset Views**: Short - term balanced allocation is recommended. After the Fed's interest rate cut decision, China - US tariff talks, and the release of details from the plenary session, equity sectors and non - ferrous metals may benefit, black commodities may rebound, and precious metals may continue to adjust [6] 3.2 Market Performance of Various Assets - **Financial Market**: Stock index futures showed a shrinking - volume rebound, with the growth style being active due to technology events. Stock index options had a slightly lower trading volume. Treasury bond futures remained weak [2][7] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver entered a short - term adjustment phase due to the easing of geopolitical and economic and trade tensions [7] - **Shipping**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line was under pressure as the peak season in the third quarter ended [7] - **Black Building Materials**: The steel industry faced policy disturbances and inventory pressure. Iron ore was mainly affected by sentiment. Coke's price increase was about to be implemented, and coking coal prices were strong. Other related products also had their own market characteristics [7] - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Copper prices fell in the short term due to trade frictions. Aluminum prices rose, while zinc prices were weak. Other non - ferrous metals also showed different trends [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical industry still faced a weak supply - demand situation. Most products were expected to fluctuate, with some showing a downward trend [9] - **Agriculture**: The agricultural market showed a mixed trend. Some products were affected by factors such as weather, trade relations, and supply - demand [9]

Core Viewpoint - The focus is on the continuous decline of coking coal prices, with the market shifting attention towards supply and demand fundamentals as expectations of reduced competition weaken [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal futures for the 2601 contract approached a limit down, closing with a decline of 7.34% after earlier trading [1] - This marks the third instance of limit down trading for coking coal on July 28 and July 31 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall valuation of black commodities is currently at a neutral to high level, while steel mill profits remain elevated [1] - There is a noted weakness in terminal demand, suggesting a predominantly weak operational trend for black commodities in the short term [1] Group 3: Price Support Factors - Coking coal futures are currently in a backwardation state, indicating that spot prices may provide some support to the futures market [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: Bullish operation [1] - Iron Ore: High-level oscillation [1] - Coking Coal: Oscillating upward [1] - Coke: Oscillating upward [1] - Manganese Silicon: Oscillation [1] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillation [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures closed lower, with spot prices down and trading volume dropping. Rebar production declined slightly, inventory decreased again, and apparent demand rebounded. Policy news boosted market sentiment, but actual supply and demand weakened. The short-term rebar futures are expected to enter a sideways consolidation phase [1]. - Iron Ore: The main iron ore futures contract decreased. Australian shipments fell, Brazilian shipments rose, and non-mainstream country shipments increased significantly. Iron ore inventory at 47 ports continued to decline. High hot metal production supported prices. Affected by macro sentiment, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short term [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures rose. Spot prices increased, and market trading was active. A notice on promoting stable coal supply was confirmed. High blast furnace utilization in steel mills improved coke demand, and the second round of coke price increases was implemented. Coking coal is expected to oscillate upward in the short term [1]. - Coke: The coke futures rose. After two rounds of price increases, coke producers' profits improved, but rising coking coal costs led to a decline in profits, and some producers continued to limit production. Steel mills' high utilization rate increased coke consumption, and their restocking willingness was strong. Coke is expected to oscillate upward in the short term [1]. - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures fluctuated widely. Market sentiment cooled slightly, and the black sector showed mixed performance. Supply is expected to gradually increase, while demand hit a five-year low. Cost support strengthened. The focus is on macro and policy implementation, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated higher. The black sector showed some divergence, and the expected adjustment of electricity prices in major production areas drove up prices. Supply is expected to increase, while demand hit a multi-year low. The main driving force of the fundamentals lies in the expected change in costs. The short-term increase is expected to gradually slow down [3]. Group 3: Summary of Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads: For different varieties, the contract spreads between different months showed various changes, such as the 10 - 1 month spread of rebar being -50.0 with a 10.0 increase [4]. - Basis: The basis of each variety also changed. For example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 106.0 with a 43.0 increase [4]. - Spot Prices: Spot prices of different varieties and in different regions had different changes, like the Shanghai spot price of rebar increasing by 10.0 to 3380.0 [4]. - Profits and Spreads: The report also provided data on profits and spreads, such as the rebar's futures profit being 37.4 with a -19.9 decrease [4]. Group 4: Summary of Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: The report presented the closing prices of main contracts of various black commodities from 2020 to 2025, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [6][7][9] - Main Contract Basis: It showed the basis of main contracts of different commodities over different time periods, such as the basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil [17] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: The spreads between different contracts of each commodity were presented, like the 10 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of rebar [25] - Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: The report included spreads between different commodities, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, and the ratio between rebar and iron ore [40] - Rebar Profits: Data on rebar's futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit were shown [45] Group 5: Introduction of the Black Research Team - The team includes members such as Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications in the black commodity research field [52][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the short - term market will mainly be in low - level consolidation. The iron ore, coking coal, and coke markets are expected to show a volatile trend in the short term. The manganese silicon and ferrosilicon markets are expected to operate in a low - level volatile manner in the short term [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Research View - **Steel**: The rebar futures market showed a strong - side volatile trend yesterday. The spot price was basically stable, and the trading volume increased. The inventory change was not significant, and the steel billet exports increased significantly, alleviating the domestic supply pressure. It is expected to be in low - level consolidation [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract price of iron ore futures rose yesterday. The port spot price declined. The global iron ore shipments increased slightly, the demand side continued to increase, and the inventory of 47 ports decreased while the steel mills' inventory increased. It is expected to show a volatile trend [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market rose yesterday. The spot price in some areas decreased, and the Mongolian coal market was strong with light trading. The supply increase was limited, and the demand was rigid. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market rose yesterday. The spot price at the port declined, the fourth round of price reduction was implemented, and the coking enterprises' production - cut expectation increased. The demand was in a good state. It is expected to operate in a volatile manner [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures price weakened in a volatile manner on Monday. The spot price in some areas increased. The weekly output was at a low level but rising, the demand improved slightly but was still low year - on - year, and the cost support was limited. It is expected to operate in a low - level volatile manner [1][3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price weakened in a volatile manner on Monday. The spot price was basically flat. The weekly output increased, the demand improved slightly, and the cost support was weak. It is expected to operate in a low - level volatile manner [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar being 4.0, down 3.0; the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil being 9.0, up 2.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of each variety also had different changes, for example, the basis of the 10 - contract of rebar was 95.0, down 3.0; the basis of the 09 - contract of iron ore was 42.8, down 5.2 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of different regions and varieties showed different trends, like the Shanghai rebar price remaining unchanged at 3090.0 yuan/ton, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port dropping to 708.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of different varieties changed, such as the rebar's disk profit being 94.6, down 2.2; the coil - rebar spread being 117.0, down 7.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: The report provides price trend charts of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [7][9][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trend charts of main contracts of various varieties from 2020 - 2025, such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [17][18][21][23]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report presents the inter - period contract spread trend charts of different varieties, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc [25][27][31][33][34][35][37]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: It provides the inter - variety contract spread trend charts of main contracts, like the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc [39][40][41][42]. - **Rebar Profit**: The report shows the profit trend charts of rebar, including the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit from 2020 - 2025 [44][46][48]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: The current assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [50]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: The current director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience in the coal industry [50]. - **Liu Xi**: A black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [50]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: A black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures opened high and closed low on the first trading day after the holiday, with the rebar 2510 contract closing at 3077 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 92,500 lots. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume fell. Given the challenges in steel exports and the transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May, the market supply - demand may face weakening pressure. It is expected that the rebar futures will continue to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend, closing at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. With a decrease in Australian shipments due to berth maintenance and an increase in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory, the iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 911.5 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 2.04% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 25,843 lots. The coking coal market is weak. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. It is expected that the coking coal futures will trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Coke: The coke futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 1502 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 2.34% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 4,825 lots. Spot prices fell. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5560 yuan/ton, down 2.76% from the previous day, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed to improve the situation [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5398 yuan/ton, down 3.05% from the previous day. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Rebar futures opened high and closed low, with a decline in spot prices and trading volume. The decline in the April PMI index and the challenges in steel exports led to cautious market expectations. The transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May may bring weakening pressure on supply - demand. The rebar futures are expected to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend. There were changes in supply, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory. The iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures declined, with a weak spot market. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. The coking coal futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures declined, with a decline in spot prices. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, hitting a new low since the second half of 2017. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar being - 32.0, down 6.0, and the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil being 43.0, down 10.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also changed. For example, the basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 133.0, up 9.0, and the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 100.4, up 0.1 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties showed different trends. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3210.0, down 10.0, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 759.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of various varieties changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was 120.6, down 2.7, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 119.0, up 11.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][11][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the historical basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads between different varieties, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of rebar to coke [40][41][42]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the historical profits of rebar futures, long - process production, and short - process production from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][48][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [51]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry awards [51]. - **Liu Xi**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [52].