黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面冲高回落，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3274 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 33 元/吨，跌幅 1%，持仓减少 10.2 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | 偏强运行 | | | 下跌 20 元/吨至 3110 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3340 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.09 万 | | | | 吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量回落 1.18 万吨至 418.02 万吨，社库回升 7.98 万吨至 546.62 万吨， | | | | 厂库回落 25.17 万吨至 305.76 万吨，建材表需回升 39.45 万吨至 435.21 万吨。建材产量小幅回落，库存再 | | | | 次转降，表需回升，数据表现偏强。近期反内卷、大基建等政策面消息不断，在很大程度上提振市场情绪， | | | | 不过市场现实供需有所趋弱。预计短期螺纹盘面将转入震荡整理走势。 | ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面偏强震荡，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 2995 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 | 低位整理 | | | 上涨 3 元/吨，持仓减少 0.62 万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格持平于 2920 | | | | 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3080 元/吨，全国建材成交量 10.3 万吨。据钢银数据，本周全国建 | | | | 材库存增加 0.05%至 369.3 万吨，热卷库存下降 0.34%至 169.03 万吨，库存整体变化不大。另据海关数据， | | | | 2025 年 1-5 月国内钢坯出口总量共计 471.65 万吨，年同比增长 305.80%。钢坯出口大幅增长，在很大程 | | | | 度上缓解了国内供应压力。目前螺纹市场处于供需双弱局面，预计短期市场仍低位整理为主。 | | | 铁矿石 | 铁矿石：昨日铁矿石期货主力合约 i2509 价格有所上涨，收于 706 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: The rebar futures opened high and closed low on the first trading day after the holiday, with the rebar 2510 contract closing at 3077 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 0.61% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 92,500 lots. Spot prices were stable with a slight decline, and trading volume fell. Given the challenges in steel exports and the transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May, the market supply - demand may face weakening pressure. It is expected that the rebar futures will continue to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - Iron Ore: The main contract i2509 of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend, closing at 704.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.14% from the previous trading day. With a decrease in Australian shipments due to berth maintenance and an increase in shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream countries, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory, the iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 911.5 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton or 2.04% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 25,843 lots. The coking coal market is weak. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. It is expected that the coking coal futures will trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Coke: The coke futures declined, with the 2509 contract closing at 1502 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton or 2.34% from the previous trading day, and the position increased by 4,825 lots. Spot prices fell. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - Manganese Silicon: On Tuesday, the manganese silicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5560 yuan/ton, down 2.76% from the previous day, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed to improve the situation [3]. - Ferrosilicon: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures weakened, with the main contract closing at 5398 yuan/ton, down 3.05% from the previous day. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: Rebar futures opened high and closed low, with a decline in spot prices and trading volume. The decline in the April PMI index and the challenges in steel exports led to cautious market expectations. The transition of terminal demand from peak to off - peak season in May may bring weakening pressure on supply - demand. The rebar futures are expected to trade in a low - level consolidation range [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract of iron ore futures showed a volatile trend. There were changes in supply, high iron - making output, and an increase in port inventory. The iron ore futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range, and attention should be paid to information on crude steel production cuts [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures declined, with a weak spot market. Although short - term demand is good due to the increase in iron - making output, the weak performance of finished steel prices and inventory de - stocking difficulties make market participants cautious. The coking coal futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures declined, with a decline in spot prices. With high coke production and demand, but high inventory in steel mills and weak market confidence, the coke futures are expected to trade in a volatile consolidation range [1]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The manganese silicon futures weakened, hitting a new low in recent years. With a decrease in cost support and weak terminal demand, the manganese silicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and further production cuts are needed [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures weakened, hitting a new low since the second half of 2017. With a decrease in cost support, higher - than - expected production in major producing areas, and weak terminal demand, the ferrosilicon futures are expected to continue to trade weakly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in major producing areas [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spread**: The contract spreads of various varieties showed different changes, such as the 10 - 1 spread of rebar being - 32.0, down 6.0, and the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil being 43.0, down 10.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of various varieties also changed. For example, the basis of the rebar 10 - contract was 133.0, up 9.0, and the basis of the iron ore 09 - contract was 100.4, up 0.1 [4]. - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various varieties showed different trends. For example, the Shanghai rebar price was 3210.0, down 10.0, and the PB powder price at Rizhao Port was 759.0, up 1.0 [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: The profits and spreads of various varieties changed. For example, the rebar futures profit was 120.6, down 2.7, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar was 119.0, up 11.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Price**: Charts show the historical closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][10][11][13][16]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts show the historical basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [18][19][22][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads of different contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][28][30][32][34][35][38]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spread**: Charts show the historical spreads between different varieties, such as the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar, the ratio of rebar to iron ore, and the ratio of rebar to coke [40][41][42]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts show the historical profits of rebar futures, long - process production, and short - process production from 2020 to 2025 [45][46][48][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - **Qiu Yuecheng**: Current Assistant Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute and Director of Black Research. With nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry, he has won many industry awards [51]. - **Zhang Xiaojin**: Current Director of Resource Product Research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many industry awards [51]. - **Liu Xi**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [51]. - **Zhang Chunjie**: Current Black Researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with experience in investment and futures - cash trading, and has passed the CFA Level 2 exam [52].