格里尔表示，白宫正在准备一份公告，将"在适当情况下"的临时关税提高到15%。 当地时间25日，美国贸易代表格里尔在接受媒体采访时表示，美国对部分国家和地区的关税税率将从新 近实施的10%提高到15%或更高，但他没有点名任何具体的贸易伙伴，也没有提供更多细节。 格里尔表示，白宫正在准备一份公告，将"在适当情况下"的临时关税提高到15%，同时美国政府将"照 顾"与美国签订贸易协定的国家和地区。 英国杜伦大学法学院副院长、跨国法教授兼全球政策研究所联合主任杜明对第一财经记者表示，特朗普 政府未来将全球关税从10%升至15%的这一过程，有三个核心诉求：第一，维持对外关税压力；第二， 不能影响已经谈下来的贸易协定；第三，要灵活处理不同情况。 当前的问题是，"美国国内贸易法提供的工具好不好用，例如122条款等，能允许目前这种灵活使用 吗？"杜明补充道。 近日，中国商务部新闻发言人表示，中方也注意到，美方在多个场合表示，将利用301、232等调查征收 关税。中方正密切关注并将全面评估美方相关举措，后续将视情适时决定调整针对美方原芬太尼关税和 对等关税的反制措施。中方将保留采取一切必要措施的权利，坚决捍卫自身合法权益。 新全 ...

根据日本《每日新闻》网站2月21日的报道，美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府推行的对等关税无效后，令人惊讶的是，日本仍然没有敢于撕毁 与美国签订的日美投资协议。众所周知，为了让美国减轻对等关税，日本当时不惜同特朗普签订了一份让人心生疑虑的协议，代价高达 5500亿美元。然而，如今对等关税被判无效，本该是个喜讯，意味着日本不必再承担这笔庞大的费用，但它依然不敢轻易撕毁协议。这背 后的真正原因，显然并不是因为日本富得无处花钱，而是有着四个深层的考虑。 再者，5500亿美元的投资，最终无论如何日本都要付出。即便是撕毁协议，也不能改变这一现实。日本如今走向右转已是无法避免的趋 势，但这并不是日本单方面可以控制的，光是社会氛围的转变并不足够，关键在于它能否扩展军备，增派军队，并提升尖端武器的生产能 力。而这一切，没有美国的认可，根本无法实现。日本的军事工业在很大程度上依赖美国，尤其是日本的航空自卫队，其研发的F2战斗机 几乎就是美国F-16的日本版，而这些战斗机的关键零部件几乎全由美国供应。日本海上自卫队和陆上自卫队的状况也类似。没有美国的技 术支持，日本根本无法独立研发和生产如此高端的军事装备。5500亿美元，实际上是买路钱 ...

据新华社报道，在美国最高法院否决特朗普政府此前依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施的关 税安排后，特朗普政府迅速援引《1974年贸易法》第122条，对全球进口商品设置10%统一关税；特朗 普随后表示将把税率提高到15%。 特朗普也成为首位以122条款征关税的美国总统。而市场眼下更关注的不是"加多少"，而是：第122条到 底给了白宫多大空间、能撑多久、以及是否会再次陷入司法与国际规则的拉扯。 "122条款"怎么规定：无需调查、但"15%封顶+150天到期" 据媒体梳理称，第122条赋予美国总统在短期内对进口商品加征关税的权限，用于应对资金跨境流动失 衡等担忧，包括法律列明的两类情形： 与特朗普可能动用的其他关税工具不同，第122条的一大特点是：总统可以直接启动，不必等待联邦机 构先做"是否合理"的调查程序。但限制也更硬： 这意味着：即便关税短期落地，其"可持续性"在法律文本上被写入倒计时，后续将高度取决于国会态度 与诉讼进展。 为什么要看"国际收支"？ 国际收支（balance of payments）衡量一国与世界的整体经济往来，覆盖的不只是货物与服务贸易，还 包括投资与其他金融流动，传统上被用来观察 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential legal outcomes regarding the "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S., with a high probability of being deemed illegal but possibly delayed in effect to avoid public disorder [4][20]. - The Supreme Court's debate shows a split opinion, with 6 justices leaning towards declaring the tariffs illegal and 3 supporting their legality, citing reasons such as the authority of Congress over tariffs and the original intent of the IEEPA legislation [4][20]. - Three possible scenarios for the Supreme Court's ruling are outlined: a high probability of ruling illegal with a delay, a moderate probability of partial illegality, and a low probability of upholding the legality of the tariffs [6][20]. Group 2 - If the reciprocal tariffs are invalidated, Trump may resort to other tariff provisions such as Sections 232, 301, and 338, with a short-term transition using Section 122 global tariffs [9][21]. - The current investigations under Section 232 cover an import scale of $544.4 billion, with most reports expected in the first half of next year [9][21]. - The likelihood of comprehensive tariff refunds is low, while targeted refunds are more probable, as judicial remedies must align with the harm suffered by plaintiffs [21]. Group 3 - The current tariff structure shows reciprocal tariffs accounting for 45%, Section 301 tariffs for 18%, Section 232 tariffs for 17%, and base tariffs for 19% [11][22]. - For the fiscal year 2025, the expected revenue from reciprocal tariffs is $89 billion, with significant contributions from fentanyl tariffs and Section 301 tariffs [11][22]. - If reciprocal tariffs are deemed illegal, the overall tariff levels may decrease by 25%, with potential revenue dropping to $255.4 billion [22].

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court is debating the legality of Trump's IEEPA reciprocal tariffs, with a majority of justices (6 out of 9) leaning towards declaring them illegal, citing that tariff authority belongs to Congress and that the IEEPA was intended to limit presidential power rather than expand it [1][6][34] - Three potential outcomes of the Supreme Court's ruling are anticipated: a high probability of declaring the tariffs illegal but possibly delaying the ruling's effect to allow the government time to adjust; a moderate probability of declaring some tariffs illegal while allowing others, such as those on fentanyl; and a low probability of upholding the legality of the tariffs [11][12][34] - If the reciprocal tariffs are deemed illegal, the overall tariff structure in the U.S. may decline significantly, with a potential 25% reduction in tariff revenue, impacting the trade policy landscape [3][19][29] Group 2 - In response to a potential ruling against the reciprocal tariffs, Trump may resort to existing tariff laws such as Sections 232, 301, and 338, with a short-term reliance on Section 122 for global tariffs [2][35] - The likelihood of comprehensive tariff refunds is low, with targeted refunds being more feasible, as legal principles dictate that remedies must align with the harm suffered by the plaintiffs [18][35] - The current tariff revenue structure shows that reciprocal tariffs account for 45% of total tariff income, with significant contributions from Section 301 and Section 232 tariffs, indicating a complex interplay of tariffs that may be affected by the court's decision [3][19][27] Group 3 - The U.S. effective tariff rate stands at 9.75%, with the highest rates applied to Chinese imports at 40.4%, indicating a significant reliance on tariffs for revenue generation [27][19] - If the reciprocal tariffs are invalidated, the U.S. may struggle to maintain similar levels of tariff revenue, with projections suggesting a drop to approximately $2.554 trillion in annual tariff income [29][31] - The ongoing investigations into Section 232 tariffs cover an import scale of $544.4 billion, with reports expected in the coming months, which could influence future tariff strategies [2][17][35]

Group 1 - The U.S. Supreme Court held oral arguments on November 5 regarding Trump's IEEPA reciprocal tariffs, with a majority of justices (6 out of 9) leaning towards declaring the tariffs illegal, raising concerns about the future of U.S. trade policy and capital markets [1][6][34] - The likelihood of the reciprocal tariffs being ruled illegal has increased, with potential outcomes including a ruling of illegality with delayed implementation to allow for government adjustment, partial illegality focusing on specific tariffs like those on fentanyl, or a ruling upholding the legality of the tariffs [6][11][12] Group 2 - If the reciprocal tariffs are deemed illegal, Trump may resort to existing tariff laws such as Sections 232, 301, and 338, with a low probability of widespread tax refunds and a higher chance of targeted refunds [2][35] - The current tariff structure shows that reciprocal tariffs account for 45% of U.S. tariff revenue, with projections indicating a potential 25% decrease in tariff revenue if the reciprocal tariffs are invalidated [3][19][29] Group 3 - The U.S. effective tariff rate stands at 9.75%, with the highest rates applied to Chinese imports at 40.4%, and if the reciprocal tariffs are ruled illegal, the overall tariff levels may not reach previous heights, potentially dropping to 7.3% [27][29][36] - The anticipated tariff revenue for the fiscal year 2025 is approximately $195.9 billion, with significant contributions from various tariff categories, including $89 billion from reciprocal tariffs and $35.1 billion from Section 301 tariffs [19][31]

Legal Analysis - The U.S. Supreme Court's debate on the legality of "reciprocal tariffs" shows a 3:6 split, with 6 justices leaning towards declaring them illegal[2] - The likelihood of a ruling against reciprocal tariffs is increasing, but a delayed effect is probable, allowing the government time to adjust[2][10] - Possible outcomes include a ruling of illegality with a delay (45%-55% probability), partial illegality focusing on specific tariffs like fentanyl (20%-30% probability), or a ruling upholding their legality (10%-20% probability)[16][17] Economic Implications - If reciprocal tariffs are deemed illegal, U.S. tariff revenue could decline by 25%, potentially dropping from $3,412 billion to $2,554 billion[4][23] - Current tariff structure: reciprocal tariffs account for 45% of U.S. tariff revenue, with 301 tariffs at 18% and 232 tariffs at 17%[4][23] - The effective tariff rate for the U.S. is currently 9.75%, with the highest rate on Chinese imports at 40.4%[4][29] Political Response - Trump may pivot to existing tariff laws (Sections 232, 301, and 338) if reciprocal tariffs are invalidated, with a low probability of widespread tax refunds[3][20] - The likelihood of targeted tax refunds is higher, but broad automatic refunds are unlikely due to legal constraints[3][22] Market Reactions - Following the Supreme Court's deliberations, market expectations for tariff legality have shifted, impacting capital markets and trade policies[5][10] - The recent government shutdown affected 670,000 federal employees, with 1.52 million remaining on payroll, highlighting the political stakes involved[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the legal challenges faced by the Trump administration regarding the implementation of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), highlighting the potential alternative legal frameworks available if the Supreme Court rules against the administration [2][4]. Legal Background - The Trump administration invoked IEEPA to impose extensive tariffs on trade partners, including a "reciprocal tariff" set to take effect on April 2, 2025 [1]. - Multiple U.S. companies and state governments have filed lawsuits claiming that the tariffs exceed the authority granted by IEEPA [2]. - A federal court ruled in May that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under IEEPA were beyond legal authority, a decision upheld by the Federal Circuit Court in August [2][8]. Alternative Legal Provisions - If the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration, alternative legal provisions include: - **Section 232**: Allows tariffs based on national security concerns, widely used by the Trump administration [6]. - **Section 301**: Authorizes the president to take action against unfair foreign government practices affecting U.S. commerce [8]. - **Section 122**: Permits tariffs for addressing significant international balance of payments issues, with a maximum tariff rate of 15% [6]. - **Section 338**: Allows tariffs on imports from countries that discriminate against U.S. trade, with a maximum rate of 50% for up to five months [8]. Timeline of Events - April 2, 2025: Trump signs an executive order imposing a 10% minimum benchmark tariff on trade partners [8]. - April 3, 2025: Lawsuits filed in federal court challenging the legality of the tariffs [9]. - May 28, 2025: A court issues a permanent injunction against the tariffs, which the Trump administration immediately appeals [9]. - August 29, 2025: The Federal Circuit Court confirms that the tariffs are illegal under IEEPA, allowing the administration to appeal to the Supreme Court [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential legal and economic implications of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision regarding the Trump administration's tariffs, particularly the "reciprocal tariffs" and the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) [3][4]. Summary by Sections Legal Context - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that most of the Trump administration's tariff measures are illegal, which undermines the administration's ability to use tariffs as a key economic policy tool [3][6]. - The ruling emphasized that the power to impose tariffs is constitutionally granted to Congress, not the President, and that the IEEPA does not authorize large-scale tariffs [6][10]. Alternative Tariff Measures - Treasury Secretary Becerra indicated that the government has backup plans, including the use of other domestic laws such as Section 301, Section 232, Section 122, and Section 338 [4][10]. - Section 338 allows the President to impose tariffs of up to 50% on imports from countries found to discriminate against U.S. trade, although it has not been formally used since the 1930s [6][7]. - Section 232 investigations have been initiated on various products, including steel, aluminum, and semiconductors, indicating a broader strategy for tariff imposition [9]. Market Reactions - The market response to the Appeals Court ruling was muted, with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach, indicating an expectation of ongoing legal disputes and policy shifts [11][12]. - The potential for an unfavorable Supreme Court ruling could significantly impact companies that have adjusted their supply chains and pricing strategies based on current tariffs [12]. International Implications - The article notes that the European Council President expressed frustration over the EU's passive stance in trade negotiations with the U.S., emphasizing the need for stronger trade partnerships globally [13][14]. - Even if the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration's tariffs, it does not automatically invalidate international treaties, but it may affect the execution of current agreements and future negotiations [14].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential implications of the U.S. Supreme Court's decision regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and explores alternative legal frameworks for imposing tariffs if the Supreme Court rules against the administration [1][2][3]. Group 1: Legal Context and Implications - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that most of the Trump administration's tariff measures are illegal, which undermines the administration's ability to use tariffs as a key economic policy tool [1][3]. - If the Supreme Court rules against the Trump administration, it will only affect tariffs imposed under IEEPA, specifically the "reciprocal tariffs" and fentanyl tariffs, leaving other tariffs under different legal frameworks unaffected [2][3]. Group 2: Alternative Tariff Measures - Treasury Secretary Becerra mentioned that there are other legal options available, such as Section 301, Section 232, Section 122, and Section 338, although these may not be as effective as IEEPA [4][5]. - Section 338 allows the President to impose tariffs of up to 50% on imports from countries found to discriminate against U.S. trade, but it has not been formally used by the administration [4][7]. - Section 232 investigations have already been initiated on various products, including steel, aluminum, and semiconductors, indicating a potential for continued tariff imposition through this avenue [6][5]. Group 3: Market Reactions and International Relations - Financial markets showed a muted response to the Appeals Court ruling, indicating that investors are adopting a wait-and-see approach regarding the ongoing legal disputes and policy changes [8]. - The potential for an unfavorable ruling from the Supreme Court could significantly impact companies that have adjusted their supply chains and pricing strategies based on current tariffs [8][9]. - European leaders expressed frustration over the U.S. trade policies, emphasizing the need for the EU to defend its interests while seeking stronger global trade partnerships [9].