1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Range-bound oscillation [1] - Alumina: Continuing to find the bottom [1] - Cast aluminum alloy: Following electrolytic aluminum [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the non - linear growth of AI computing power demand, in 2026, investors should shift their focus from "chips" to "removing bottlenecks", and the cumulative power shortage in US data centers from 2025 - 2028 will reach 47 gigawatts [3] - Most economies have very limited room for further monetary policy easing. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates only twice by the end of 2026, and the federal funds rate will remain in the range of 3.25% - 3.5% until 2027. The eurozone and Canada are expected to have no further room for interest rate cuts, while Japan is expected to steadily tighten its monetary policy [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum** - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,910, with a change of 445 compared to T - 5 [1] - The closing price of the LME Aluminum 3M was 2,864, with a change of - 25 compared to T - 1 [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 177,992, a decrease of 77,939 compared to T - 1 [1] - The LME Aluminum 3M trading volume was 19,748, a decrease of 1,971 compared to T - 1 [1] - The LME aluminum cash - 3M spread was - 25.95, with a change of 4.50 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Alumina** - The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,670, a decrease of 57 compared to T - 5 [1] - The trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 177,845, a decrease of 64,249 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Aluminum Alloy** - The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 21,095, an increase of 390 compared to T - 5 [1] - The trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 5,751, an increase of 1,657 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum** - The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 591,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons compared to T - 5 [1] - The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 535,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared to T - 1 [1] - The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss was 5,283.92, a decrease of 245.86 compared to T - 1 [1] - The aluminum spot import profit and loss was - 1,780.07, a decrease of 164.28 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Alumina** - The domestic average alumina price was 2,855, a decrease of 66 compared to T - 5 [1] - The alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port was 338 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 2 compared to T - 5 [1] - **Aluminum Alloy** - The theoretical profit of ADC12 was - 235, a decrease of 76 compared to T - 5 [1] - The three - place inventory total was 49,410, a decrease of 494 compared to T - 1 [1] 3.3 Other Information - The trend strength of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy was all 0, indicating a neutral trend [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Various commodities in the futures market show different trends. For example, gold's降息预期回升, and silver is加速冲刺，再创新高. Copper's price is supported by strong spot prices, while zinc has support at the lower level. Lead's price is supported by inventory reduction, and tin's supply is disrupted again [2][6][10]. - The market for some commodities is in a state of wide - range oscillation, such as iron ore, whose downstream demand space is limited and valuation is high;螺纹钢 and热轧卷板 are experiencing a multi - empty game in the market and wide - range oscillations [2][42][45]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals - **Gold**: With the recovery of interest - rate cut expectations, the prices of沪金2512 and黄金T+D increased by 1.05% and 1.15% respectively yesterday. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. - **Silver**: It is accelerating and hitting new highs. The prices of沪银2512 and白银T+D rose significantly, with daily increases of 4.46% and 4.72% respectively. The trend intensity is 1 [6]. 3.2 Base Metals - **Copper**: The spot price is strong, supporting the price. The沪铜主力合约 decreased by 0.40% yesterday. The global copper market is expected to face a supply shortage of 150,000 tons in 2026. The trend intensity is 1 [10][12]. - **Zinc**: There is support at the lower level. The沪锌主力收盘价 increased by 0.69% yesterday. The trend intensity is 1 [13]. - **Lead**: Inventory reduction supports the price. The沪铅主力收盘价 rose by 0.79% yesterday. The trend intensity is 0 [17]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again. The沪锡主力合约 increased by 0.50% yesterday. The trend intensity is 0 [20]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The氧化铝 is still searching for the bottom, and the铸造铝合金 follows the electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [23]. - **Platinum**: It is in a narrow - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [26]. - **Palladium**: The price difference between NYMEX and London has widened, with the possibility of an upward movement. The trend intensity is 0 [27]. - **Nickel**: The fundamentals limit the upward elasticity, and it is in a low - level oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. - **Stainless Steel**: With high inventory, weak supply and demand, and cost limiting the downward space, it is in an oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [31]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Spot trading is weak, and the high - level oscillation continues. The trend intensity is 0 [36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is mainly in a weak operation. The trend intensity is - 1 [39]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in an oscillating market, and attention should be paid to subsequent warrant registration. The trend intensity is 0 [39]. 3.4 Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high. The trend intensity is - 1 [42]. - **Rebar**: There is a multi - empty game in the market, and it is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [45]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: There is a multi - empty game in the market, and it is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [46]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [50]. - **Manganese Silicide**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [50]. - **Coke**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [54]. - **Coking Coal**: It is in a wide - range oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [54]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the confirmation of the inflection point and conduct range - bound operations for the time being [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Driven by US soybeans is insufficient, and it is mainly in an oscillation [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: There is a lack of new sales, and US soybeans continue to fall, leading to an adjustment in the continuous contract. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating [5]. - **Corn**: It is in an oscillating operation [5]. - **Sugar**: India's sugar production has increased significantly [5]. - **Cotton**: Supply and demand are both strong [5]. - **Egg**: The volume of culling has increased, and the overall sentiment is strong [5]. - **Live Pig**: An increase in supply is coming, and the industrial logic is returning [5]. - **Peanut**: Pay attention to the spot price [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump is expected to announce a new Federal Reserve Chairman early next year, with Kevin Hassett being the likely candidate [7]. - The US holiday shopping season had a strong start, and the OECD has raised its economic growth forecasts for the US and the Eurozone [20]. - The Eurozone's November CPI rebounded to 2.2%, making a December interest - rate cut by the European Central Bank "highly unlikely" [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals and Minerals Gold and Silver - Gold: The expectation of interest - rate cuts has rebounded. Gold prices are on an upward trend, with a trend strength of 1 [17]. - Silver: It is accelerating and reaching new highs, with a trend strength of 1 [17]. Base Metals - Copper: The spot market is strong, supporting the price, with a trend strength of 1 [21]. - Zinc: There is support at the lower level, with a trend strength of 1 [24]. - Lead: Inventory reduction supports the price, with a trend strength of 0 [27]. - Tin: Supply has been disrupted again, with a trend strength of 0 [30]. - Aluminum: It is in a range - bound oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [33]. - Alumina: It is still searching for a bottom, with a trend strength of 0 [33]. - Platinum: It is in a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [37]. - Palladium: There is a possibility of an upward movement as the NYMEX - London price spread widens, with a trend strength of 0 [37]. - Nickel: Fundamental factors limit the upside potential, and it is trading in a low - level oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. - Stainless Steel: High inventory and weak supply - demand, with cost limiting the downside, with a trend strength of 0 [41]. 3.2 Energy and Chemicals Energy - Crude Oil: Not specifically mentioned in the report. Chemicals - Synthetic Rubber: It has short - term event - driven upward movement, but the upside space is narrowing. The short - term price of butadiene is stable and oscillating, and the supply - demand pattern has marginally improved [8][9]. - LLDPE: The basis has turned positive, and the supply remains loose. There is a need to pay attention to the supply - demand pressure caused by high production capacity and weakening demand in the medium term [80][81]. - PP: It has a short - term rebound, but the medium - term trend still faces pressure due to high supply and weak demand [83][84]. - Caustic Soda: The trend still faces pressure due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [87][89]. - Paper Pulp: It is in an oscillating operation. The core contradiction has not fundamentally changed, and attention should be paid to port inventory and downstream procurement [92][94]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. Capacity reduction has boosted market confidence, but overall trading is average [96][97]. - Methanol: It is in an oscillating operation, and the upside space is narrowing. The high supply pressure in the domestic market is the main contradiction in the 01 contract [99][103]. - Urea: The price center has shifted upward, and attention should be paid to inventory. The fundamental driver is neutral, and the price is supported by the reduction of explicit inventory [106][109]. - Styrene: It is in a short - term oscillation. The short - term pure benzene market is oscillating, and the supply pressure of styrene is not large [110][111]. - Soda Ash: The spot market has little change. Supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand is general [113]. - LPG: The trend is under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [115][120]. - Propylene: The pattern remains loose, with a trend strength of - 1 [116][120]. - PVC: It is in a low - level oscillation. The short - term is not suitable for short - selling, but it still faces high -开工 and weak - demand before the 03 contract [124][125]. - Fuel Oil: The night - session price declined, and the weakness reappeared, with a trend strength of - 1 [127][128]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It has weakened in the short - term, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market is in a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [128]. 3.3 Agriculture Grains and Oilseeds - Corn: It is in an oscillating operation, with a trend strength of 0 [162][165]. - Soybean Meal: It lacks new sales, and the decline of US soybeans has led to an adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [159][161]. - Soybean: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating, with a trend strength of 0 [159][161]. - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The prices of most regions are stable or slightly weak, with a trend strength of 0 [182][184]. Soft Commodities - Sugar: The production in India has increased significantly. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with a trend strength of - 1 [166][168]. - Cotton: The supply and demand are both strong. The spot trading is still light, and the price of cotton yarn has been partially raised [170][171]. - Egg: The volume of culling has increased, and the overall sentiment is strong, with a trend strength of 0 [176]. - Live Pig: An increase in supply is expected, and the industrial logic is returning, with a trend strength of - 1 [178][180]. - Palm Oil: It is waiting for the confirmation of the inflection point and is currently in a range - bound operation. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil in November decreased [152][153]. - Soybean Oil: The driving force from US soybeans is insufficient, and it is in an oscillating operation, with a trend strength of 0 [152][158]. 3.4 Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line): It is expected to continue to repair its valuation in the short - term and be in an oscillating market in the medium - term. The strategy is to wait and see for the 02 contract and maintain rolling short - selling for the 04 contract [130][140].

Market Overview - Global markets received a brief respite with indications of a potential Federal Reserve chair nomination for Hassett by Trump, alongside stable Japanese bond auctions [2][9] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw gains, while small-cap stocks declined due to ongoing concerns about the competitive landscape among tech giants [2][9] - Bitcoin surged over 6%, recovering to above $90,000, while Ethereum rose more than 8% [2][9] Key News - Trump hinted at announcing the new Federal Reserve chair early next year, strongly suggesting Hassett as the candidate [3][9] - The American Retail Federation reported over 200 million shoppers during the Thanksgiving holiday shopping period, exceeding previous forecasts [3][9] - OpenAI initiated a "red alert," pausing its advertising business to focus on optimizing ChatGPT in response to competitive pressures from Google's Gemini [3][10] - Amazon launched its AI chip Trainium 3, which is faster and more energy-efficient, along with four new Nova 2 models [3][11] - Nvidia's CFO stated that the $500 billion chip orders do not include any collaboration with OpenAI, and a $100 billion agreement is still under negotiation [3][12] Company Developments - OpenAI is accelerating the development of a new model named "Garlic" to compete with Google's advancements in AI [17] - Nvidia's new collaboration with Mistral aims to enhance efficiency and precision across various scales [20] - Luma AI, backed by Nvidia, announced a significant expansion plan following a $900 million funding round, aiming to compete in the generative video and "world model" sectors [21] Industry Insights - The AI sector is expected to see intensified competition in 2026, with major players like Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance vying for dominance in AI cloud and chatbot technologies [15] - The brain-computer interface industry is projected to reach a global scale of $40 billion by 2030, driven by policy support and technological advancements [25] - The satellite internet industry in China is anticipated to experience rapid growth, with 2025 marked as a significant year for commercialization [27]