国庆假期过后，国内对近月棕榈油船期采购持续活跃，成交多集中于11—12月。据不完全统计，11月买 船已达20条，12月虽有7条左右，但采购窗口仍未关闭，上周即新增两条12月船期成交。然而，在国内 豆油与棕榈油现货价差未能有效修复的情况下，棕榈油市场终端需求依然疲弱。因此，预计年底前国内 棕榈油库存将持续累积。 10月，印度棕榈油采购步伐放缓。由于阿根廷降低农产品出口关税，印度转而采购了更多豆油和葵油。 同时，我国对印豆油出口也陆续成交。此外，10月底排灯节后，印度对棕榈油的需求本身将步入季节性 淡季。在上述因素共同作用下，棕榈油在印度的市场份额正被挤占。基于此看空预期，棕榈油主力期货 合约国庆假期过后下跌超1000元／吨。 B50政策全面落地仍需时间 此前印尼政府表示，将于2026年下半年执行B50生物柴油政策，预计届时生物柴油分配量将达1950万千 升，高于2025年的1560万千升，增量390万千升。按照当前生物柴油产量增速推算，2025年印尼生物柴 油预计消耗1282万吨棕榈油；执行B50政策后，棕榈油消耗量将额外增加400万吨左右。然而，B50政策 下仍存在300万千升的生物柴油产能缺口，且计划的五座 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Other varieties: No clear overall industry investment rating, but specific short - term outlooks are provided for each variety Core Views - The report provides short - term outlooks for multiple futures varieties, including short - term consolidation, short - term shocks, high - level shocks, and bearish views, and gives corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand fundamentals and market news [1] Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of soybean meal futures closed at 2932 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day. Spot prices generally declined. National average soybean crushing profit was - 111.6196 yuan/ton, down 18.40 yuan. The basis of soybean meal 01 decreased by 30 yuan to - 12 yuan [2] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: As of October 10, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 1009.2 million tons, an increase of 70.70 million tons from the week of September 26; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 765.76 million tons, an increase of 45.85 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 14.29%. US old - crop soybean inventory was 316 million bushels as of September 1, 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Brazilian soybean planting rate as of October 4, 2025, was 8.2% [3][4] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term consolidation. With the harvest of US soybeans, the existence of Sino - US negotiation voices, and a slight improvement in Brazilian rainfall, there is a lack of driving factors. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade [1][4] Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2392 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. National average rapeseed meal spot price remained unchanged. National average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 258.7595 yuan/ton, down 77.40 yuan [5] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: As of October 10, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 1.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from last week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, a decrease of 1.53 million tons. International rapeseed production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestic rapeseed meal is in a destocking state, but demand enters the off - season [6] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term consolidation. Trade policies and high inventories lead to a mix of long and short factors. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal due to the lack of new driving factors [1][6] Palm Oil - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of palm oil futures closed at 9364 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan or 0.78% from the previous day. National average price decreased by 220 yuan to 9325 yuan/ton. Weekly commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons [7] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: As of October 10, 2025, national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.65%. Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy has made new progress, which is expected to increase future demand. Malaysian palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% compared with the previous month, but it continued to accumulate inventory in September [9] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term shock. It is temporarily treated as a high - level shock market. Although future demand is expected to increase, the inventory increase in September in Malaysia has put pressure on prices [1][9] Cotton - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of cotton futures (CF2601) closed at 13300 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day. Cotton commercial inventory increased by 17.46 million tons to 115.54 million tons [10] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: Internationally, US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries are increasing supply, and export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton is being continuously harvested, and the opening price is weakening. Demand is weak, with a decline in orders and operating rates, and September's foreign trade performance continued to weaken [11][12] - **Market Outlook**: Bearish. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term due to strong supply and weak demand [1][13] Jujube - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of jujube futures (CJ2601) closed at 11130 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons [14] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: New - season jujube production is expected to decrease, but the decline is not as large as in 2023. After combining with carry - over inventory, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap. The demand side is relatively flat [15] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish. There is still pressure after the new fruit is listed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1][15] Live Pig - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of live pig futures (lh2511) closed at 11125 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan or 1.72% from the previous day. National average spot price of live pigs decreased by 70 yuan to 11260 yuan/ton [16] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: In the short term, supply pressure is strong, with an expected increase in planned slaughter in October. In the medium term, the number of slaughtered pigs is expected to increase. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is decreasing. After the double - festival concentrated stocking, terminal demand is declining [17] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish. It is expected to continue the weak shock market, and it is recommended to continue short - allocation and reverse arbitrage, paying attention to risk control [1][18]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 10 日星期五 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 合同量为 | 402.1 | 万吨，较上周的 | 551.0 | 万吨减少 | 148.9 | 万吨，环比下降 | 27.02%。国内进口压 | 榨菜粕库存量为 | 1.7 | 万吨，较上周的 | 1.7 | 万吨持平，环比持平；合同量为 | 2.8 | 万吨，较上周 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 的 | 2.5 | 万吨增加 | 0.3 | 万吨，环比增加 | 12.00%。 | 7、东莞中粮开始预售明年一季度澳洲菜粕。同时市场不断传出枫叶、益海、澳加获批澳籽 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 基因证书，核实后消息 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: B50 road test is advanced, maintain low - long and range - bound operations [2][4] - Soybean oil: US soybeans rebounded during the holiday, and soybean oil followed the upward opening of oils and fats [2][4] - Soybean meal: US soybean prices rose during the holiday, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may rebound after the holiday [2][11] - Soybean: Pay attention to the soybean market atmosphere, may rebound and fluctuate [2][11] - Corn: Fluctuate weakly [2][14] - Sugar: Fluctuate strongly [2][17] - Eggs: Spot prices continue to decline [2][21] - Pigs: Spot price decline increased during the holiday, it's a basis - narrowing market [2][23] - Peanuts: Fluctuate weakly [2][26] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Malaysian palm oil main contract closed at 4,546 ringgit/ton (up 1.65% during the day, 4,560 ringgit/ton at night, up 0.33%); CBOT soybean oil main contract closed at 51.29 cents/pound (up 0.49%) [4] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,060 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,450 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) [4] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) was - 168 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) was 310 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News** - Indonesia plans to launch the B50 biodiesel policy next year, which requires 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel annually, while the current B40 policy requires 15.6 million kiloliters [5][6] - SGS: Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 30 were 1,013,140 tons, a 13.41% decrease from the previous month [7] Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3,927 yuan/ton (down 0.10%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2,928 yuan/ton (down 0.31%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1029.75 cents/bushel (up 0.86%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 278.1 dollars/short - ton (up 0.51%) [11] - Spot: Shandong soybean meal (43%) was 2,940 - 2,980 yuan/ton [11] - **Macro and Industry News** - On October 8, CBOT soybean futures continued to rise due to possible downward adjustment of US soybean production and improved prospects of China - US trade negotiations [11][13] Corn - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: C2511 closed at 2,143 yuan/ton (down 1.29%); C2601 closed at 2,130 yuan/ton (down 0.33%) [15] - Spot: Jinzhou平仓 price was 2,280 yuan/ton (unchanged); Guangdong Shekou price was 2,440 yuan/ton (unchanged) [15] - **Macro and Industry News** - During the National Day holiday, Northeast corn prices declined, and North Port prices rose slightly on October 6; North China corn prices fluctuated with an overall downward trend [16] Sugar - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Main contract price was 5,493 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton) [17] - Spot: Mainstream spot price was 5,830 yuan/ton (unchanged) [17] - **Macro and Industry News** - Typhoon "Madam" affected Guangdong and Guangxi, and floods occurred in Guangxi; Brazil's sugar production in the first half of September increased by 16% year - on - year [17] - Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons [17] Eggs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Egg 2510 closed at 2,909 yuan/500 kilograms (down 0.65%); Egg 2601 closed at 3,360 yuan/500 kilograms (up 0.36%) [21] - Spot: Liaoning spot price was 3.40 yuan/jin (unchanged); Hebei spot price was 2.96 yuan/jin (down 0.11 yuan/jin) [21] Pigs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Pig 2511 closed at 12,355 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton); Pig 2601 closed at 12,825 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton) [23] - Spot: Henan spot price was 12,480 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton); Sichuan spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged) [23] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: PK510 closed at 7,602 yuan/ton (down 2.54%); PK511 closed at 7,764 yuan/ton (down 0.89%) [26] - Spot: Liaoning 308 general peanuts were 8,500 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton); Henan Baisha general peanuts were 8,100 yuan/ton (unchanged) [26] - **Spot Market Focus** - In Henan, peanut prices were stable; in Jilin, prices were weak; in Liaoning, prices were slightly weaker than the previous day; in Shandong, prices were stable or slightly weak [27]

Core Insights - Indonesia is increasing the export tax on crude palm oil to enhance funding support for biodiesel funds, indicating a potential shift towards a B50 biodiesel policy [1] Group 1 - The Indonesian government aims to boost financial backing for biodiesel initiatives through higher export taxes on crude palm oil [1] - The introduction of a B50 biodiesel policy suggests a significant move towards renewable energy sources in Indonesia [1]