Core Viewpoint - The outlook for Malaysia's plantation sector remains optimistic, providing a defensive buffer against market uncertainties due to the anticipated increase in palm oil demand from Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy set to launch in the second half of the year [1] Summary by Category Market Outlook - The average crude palm oil price is expected to rise from 4,332 Malaysian Ringgit per ton last year to 4,400 Malaysian Ringgit per ton by 2026, supported by the B50 biodiesel policy [1] Policy Impact - Although the significant impact of the B50 policy is expected to be more pronounced from 2027, the news surrounding its implementation is likely to support prices in the interim [1] Company Preferences - Given the weak outlook for refining and oleochemical products, the company favors upstream businesses with larger exposure [1] - Malaysia Investment Bank maintains an "overweight" rating on the plantation sector, identifying SD Guthrie and Johor Plantations as preferred stocks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The September supply and demand report from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) presents a bearish outlook for palm oil, with production declining and inventory levels unexpectedly increasing, leading to a price correction in palm oil futures [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Malaysian palm oil production in September decreased by 0.73% month-on-month to 1.84 million tons due to rainy weather and holiday impacts [1]. - Exports increased by 7.69% month-on-month to 1.43 million tons, driven by Indonesia's tariff adjustments [1]. - Despite the increase in exports, domestic biodiesel consumption has declined, and rising imports have led to a lower-than-expected apparent consumption, resulting in an increase in inventory levels [1][2]. Group 2: Future Production and Inventory Expectations - In October, Malaysian palm oil production is expected to rise by 6% month-on-month to 1.95 million tons, significantly higher than historical averages [2]. - However, the export growth is slowing, with estimates for October exports ranging between 1.47 million to 1.48 million tons, and inventories are projected to exceed 2.4 million tons by the end of October [2]. Group 3: Market Trends and External Influences - Domestic palm oil procurement remains active, particularly for shipments in November and December, but terminal demand is weak due to the price gap between soybean oil and palm oil [3]. - India's palm oil purchasing has slowed down, with a shift towards soybean and sunflower oil due to reduced export tariffs from Argentina, leading to a decrease in palm oil market share in India [3][6]. - The overall market sentiment is bearish, driven by declining demand expectations for biodiesel and edible oil exports, alongside better-than-expected production in major producing regions [8]. Group 4: Policy and Economic Considerations - Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is set to be implemented in the second half of 2026, with expected biodiesel distribution increasing significantly, but there are concerns about inflation and funding shortages [4]. - The palm oil fund is projected to have a balance of $2.4 billion by the end of 2023, but this is expected to decline significantly by the end of 2025 due to rising subsidy costs [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Other varieties: No clear overall industry investment rating, but specific short - term outlooks are provided for each variety Core Views - The report provides short - term outlooks for multiple futures varieties, including short - term consolidation, short - term shocks, high - level shocks, and bearish views, and gives corresponding trading strategies based on supply - demand fundamentals and market news [1] Summaries by Variety Soybean Meal - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of soybean meal futures closed at 2932 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.34% from the previous day. Spot prices generally declined. National average soybean crushing profit was - 111.6196 yuan/ton, down 18.40 yuan. The basis of soybean meal 01 decreased by 30 yuan to - 12 yuan [2] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: As of October 10, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 1009.2 million tons, an increase of 70.70 million tons from the week of September 26; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 765.76 million tons, an increase of 45.85 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 14.29%. US old - crop soybean inventory was 316 million bushels as of September 1, 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Brazilian soybean planting rate as of October 4, 2025, was 8.2% [3][4] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term consolidation. With the harvest of US soybeans, the existence of Sino - US negotiation voices, and a slight improvement in Brazilian rainfall, there is a lack of driving factors. Attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of Sino - US trade [1][4] Rapeseed Meal - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of rapeseed meal futures closed at 2392 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day. National average rapeseed meal spot price remained unchanged. National average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 258.7595 yuan/ton, down 77.40 yuan [5] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: As of October 10, coastal area major oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 1.8 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from last week; rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons, a decrease of 1.53 million tons. International rapeseed production is expected to increase year - on - year. Domestic rapeseed meal is in a destocking state, but demand enters the off - season [6] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term consolidation. Trade policies and high inventories lead to a mix of long and short factors. It mainly follows the trend of soybean meal due to the lack of new driving factors [1][6] Palm Oil - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of palm oil futures closed at 9364 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan or 0.78% from the previous day. National average price decreased by 220 yuan to 9325 yuan/ton. Weekly commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a decrease of 0.46 million tons [7] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: As of October 10, 2025, national key area palm oil commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.65%. Indonesian B50 biodiesel policy has made new progress, which is expected to increase future demand. Malaysian palm oil production in September decreased by 2.35% compared with the previous month, but it continued to accumulate inventory in September [9] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term shock. It is temporarily treated as a high - level shock market. Although future demand is expected to increase, the inventory increase in September in Malaysia has put pressure on prices [1][9] Cotton - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of cotton futures (CF2601) closed at 13300 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or 0.19% from the previous day. Cotton commercial inventory increased by 17.46 million tons to 115.54 million tons [10] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: Internationally, US cotton and other Northern Hemisphere countries are increasing supply, and export demand has not improved significantly. Domestically, new cotton is being continuously harvested, and the opening price is weakening. Demand is weak, with a decline in orders and operating rates, and September's foreign trade performance continued to weaken [11][12] - **Market Outlook**: Bearish. It is recommended to short - allocate near - month contracts in the short term due to strong supply and weak demand [1][13] Jujube - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of jujube futures (CJ2601) closed at 11130 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day. The physical inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9167 tons, a decrease of 36 tons [14] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: New - season jujube production is expected to decrease, but the decline is not as large as in 2023. After combining with carry - over inventory, there may not be an obvious supply - demand gap. The demand side is relatively flat [15] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish. There is still pressure after the new fruit is listed. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices [1][15] Live Pig - **Price and Market Situation**: The main contract of live pig futures (lh2511) closed at 11125 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan or 1.72% from the previous day. National average spot price of live pigs decreased by 70 yuan to 11260 yuan/ton [16] - **Supply - demand Fundamentals**: In the short term, supply pressure is strong, with an expected increase in planned slaughter in October. In the medium term, the number of slaughtered pigs is expected to increase. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is decreasing. After the double - festival concentrated stocking, terminal demand is declining [17] - **Market Outlook**: Cautiously bearish. It is expected to continue the weak shock market, and it is recommended to continue short - allocation and reverse arbitrage, paying attention to risk control [1][18]

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - After the post-holiday price increase, the upward momentum is limited. As the supply and demand report of Malaysian palm oil is released, all the positive factors will be realized. Short - term long positions should take profits and exit. For the two - meal market, short - term rebounds can be participated in, with limited rebound height, waiting for subsequent short - selling opportunities [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Agricultural, Forestry and Livestock - Three Oils Market Performance - On October 9, driven by the resurgence of the Indonesian B50 concept, palm oil led the rally in the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices and daily changes of various contracts are as follows: the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8332 yuan/ton, up 2.36% day - on - day, with a daily decrease of 8109 lots; the second - main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 8074 yuan/ton, up 2.25% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 5157 lots; the main palm oil contract P2601 closed at 9570 yuan/ton, up 3.17% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 46907 lots; the second - main palm oil contract P2605 closed at 9360 yuan/ton, up 3.59% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 7060 lots; the main rapeseed oil contract OI2601 closed at 10248 yuan/ton, up 2.03% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 25710 lots; the second - main rapeseed oil contract OI2605 closed at 9729 yuan/ton, up 2.18% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 254 lots [1] Important Information - NYMEX crude oil futures closed lower on Thursday after Israel and Hamas signed a Gaza ceasefire agreement - After Argentina suspended the export tax on grains, about 40 ships of Argentine soybeans were registered for export in November and December, mostly to China. These purchases affected US soybean export sales. Argentina restored the export tax on Thursday - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release its official monthly report on October 10. An industry survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September will decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production - On October 7, an energy ministry official said that after completing laboratory tests, Indonesia has taken another step towards the B50 biodiesel policy and plans to launch it next year. The implementation of the B50 policy requires 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel annually, while the current B40 policy requires 15.6 million kiloliters - Data from the Southern Palm Oil Millers Association (SPPOMA) in Malaysia shows that from October 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.55% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 11.61% month - on - month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.18% month - on - month - As of the end of the 39th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.6186 million tons, a weekly decrease of 58,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.19%, and a year - on - year increase of 17.18%. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.4608 million tons, a weekly decrease of 13,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%, and a year - on - year increase of 10.87%; the edible palm oil inventory was 507,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 31,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.79%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.16%; the rapeseed oil inventory was 650,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 14,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.15%, and a year - on - year increase of 45.22% [1] Market Logic - Internationally, oil prices fell, and US soybean oil was under pressure. Indonesia accelerated the R & D and promotion of B50, and the market expected a decline in Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September, so Malaysian palm oil showed a strong trend. Domestically, after the pre - holiday stocking ended, market demand weakened. In terms of supply, the recent operating rate of factories was around 65%, with high soybean oil production. Many factories operated normally during the long holiday, and the soybean oil inventory in factories may increase after the holiday. The estimated soybean imports from September to October are about 20 million tons, so the short - term supply of soybean oil exceeds demand. Palm oil mainly follows the international market trend. After the pre - holiday stocking, the rapeseed oil market had a slight decline in the futures market, but due to the expected tight supply gap in the macro - logic, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still decreasing, and the strong fundamentals support the firm price of rapeseed oil [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Short - term long positions should take profits and exit, and the long - term upward space is limited. The resistance level of the Y2601 contract is 9000, and the support level is 8000; the resistance level of the Y2605 contract is 8400, and the support level is 7740; the resistance level of the P2601 contract is 10000, and the support level is 8720; the resistance level of the P2605 contract is 10000, and the support level is 8610; the resistance level of the OI2601 contract is 12000, and the support level is 9680; the resistance level of the OI2605 contract is 12000, and the support level is 9270. Arbitrage: None [2] Two Meals Market Performance - On October 9, driven by the rebound of US soybean products during the National Day holiday, the rebound of domestic double - meal futures was blocked. The main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at a certain price (not fully provided), up 0.38% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 4912 lots; the second - main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2755 yuan/ton, up 0.62% day - on - day, with a daily decrease of 5870 lots; the main rapeseed meal contract RM2601 closed at 2435 yuan/ton, up 0.58% day - on - day, with a daily increase of 3338 lots; the second - main rapeseed meal contract RM2605 closed at 2334 yuan/ton, up 0.73% day - on - day, with a daily decrease of 1705 lots [2] Important Information - As of October 2, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean reached 9% of the total sown area, higher than 3.2% a week ago and 4% in the same period last year - Analysts expect that the net export sales volume of US 2025/26 soybeans in the week ending October 2, 2025, will be between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons. However, due to the US government shutdown since October 1, the US Department of Agriculture has postponed the release of the weekly export sales report indefinitely - The Trump administration is expected to announce a plan this week to rescue US farmers affected by the trade war and price drops, with preliminary spending possibly reaching up to $15 billion - As of the end of October, Brazil's soybean export volume is expected to reach 102.2 million tons, exceeding the total annual volume of 2024 and 2023 - As of the end of the 39th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans in China was 7.911 million tons, an increase of 295,000 tons from last week's 7.616 million tons, compared with 6.574 million tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 7.721 million tons. The total inventory of imported rapeseed was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from last week's 66,000 tons, compared with 456,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 103,000 tons. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.274 million tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from last week's 1.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.20%; the contract volume was 4.021 million tons, a decrease of 1.489 million tons from last week's 5.51 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.02%. The inventory of imported rapeseed meal was 17,000 tons, the same as last week, a month - on - month flat; the contract volume was 28,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week's 25,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.00% - Dongguan COFCO started pre - selling Australian rapeseed meal for the first quarter of next year. Although the news that some companies obtained the gene certificate for Australian rapeseed is not true, it is expected that Australian rapeseed meal will enter the Chinese market soon, which is bearish for the rapeseed meal futures market [2][3] Market Logic - Internationally, due to the US government shutdown, USDA data release is suspended indefinitely. The US government plans to subsidize soybean farmers with $15 billion, putting pressure on the overall trend of US soybeans. The US president said that he will discuss soybean issues with China soon. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the near - month basis remained stable. After the holiday, oil mills resumed production one after another. Feed and breeding enterprises stocked up a lot before to prevent trade tariff risks, with high inventory; at the same time, the inventory reduction of oil mills was slow, and traders mainly executed contracts. For rapeseed meal, after the holiday opening, the market sentiment was unstable, and end - users mainly waited and adjusted, with limited actual transactions. As the peak season of aquaculture is approaching the end, the demand for rapeseed meal is also limited, resulting in a situation of tight supply and demand [3] Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Participate in short - term rebounds, noting that the rebound height is limited, and the medium - to - long - term trend is bearish. The resistance level of the M2601 contract is 3250, and the support level is 2894; the resistance level of the M2605 contract is 2900, and the support level is 2680; the resistance level of the RM2601 contract is 2858, and the support level is 2430; the resistance level of the RM2605 contract is 2750, and the support level is 2270. Arbitrage: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: B50 road test is advanced, maintain low - long and range - bound operations [2][4] - Soybean oil: US soybeans rebounded during the holiday, and soybean oil followed the upward opening of oils and fats [2][4] - Soybean meal: US soybean prices rose during the holiday, and the Dalian soybean meal futures may rebound after the holiday [2][11] - Soybean: Pay attention to the soybean market atmosphere, may rebound and fluctuate [2][11] - Corn: Fluctuate weakly [2][14] - Sugar: Fluctuate strongly [2][17] - Eggs: Spot prices continue to decline [2][21] - Pigs: Spot price decline increased during the holiday, it's a basis - narrowing market [2][23] - Peanuts: Fluctuate weakly [2][26] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Palm oil and Soybean oil - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Malaysian palm oil main contract closed at 4,546 ringgit/ton (up 1.65% during the day, 4,560 ringgit/ton at night, up 0.33%); CBOT soybean oil main contract closed at 51.29 cents/pound (up 0.49%) [4] - Spot: Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong) was 9,060 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton); first - grade soybean oil (Guangdong) was 8,450 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton) [4] - Basis: Palm oil (Guangdong) was - 168 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) was 310 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News** - Indonesia plans to launch the B50 biodiesel policy next year, which requires 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel annually, while the current B40 policy requires 15.6 million kiloliters [5][6] - SGS: Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 30 were 1,013,140 tons, a 13.41% decrease from the previous month [7] Soybean meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3,927 yuan/ton (down 0.10%); DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 2,928 yuan/ton (down 0.31%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1029.75 cents/bushel (up 0.86%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 278.1 dollars/short - ton (up 0.51%) [11] - Spot: Shandong soybean meal (43%) was 2,940 - 2,980 yuan/ton [11] - **Macro and Industry News** - On October 8, CBOT soybean futures continued to rise due to possible downward adjustment of US soybean production and improved prospects of China - US trade negotiations [11][13] Corn - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: C2511 closed at 2,143 yuan/ton (down 1.29%); C2601 closed at 2,130 yuan/ton (down 0.33%) [15] - Spot: Jinzhou平仓 price was 2,280 yuan/ton (unchanged); Guangdong Shekou price was 2,440 yuan/ton (unchanged) [15] - **Macro and Industry News** - During the National Day holiday, Northeast corn prices declined, and North Port prices rose slightly on October 6; North China corn prices fluctuated with an overall downward trend [16] Sugar - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Main contract price was 5,493 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton) [17] - Spot: Mainstream spot price was 5,830 yuan/ton (unchanged) [17] - **Macro and Industry News** - Typhoon "Madam" affected Guangdong and Guangxi, and floods occurred in Guangxi; Brazil's sugar production in the first half of September increased by 16% year - on - year [17] - Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons [17] Eggs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Egg 2510 closed at 2,909 yuan/500 kilograms (down 0.65%); Egg 2601 closed at 3,360 yuan/500 kilograms (up 0.36%) [21] - Spot: Liaoning spot price was 3.40 yuan/jin (unchanged); Hebei spot price was 2.96 yuan/jin (down 0.11 yuan/jin) [21] Pigs - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: Pig 2511 closed at 12,355 yuan/ton (up 60 yuan/ton); Pig 2601 closed at 12,825 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan/ton) [23] - Spot: Henan spot price was 12,480 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton); Sichuan spot price was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged) [23] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data** - Futures: PK510 closed at 7,602 yuan/ton (down 2.54%); PK511 closed at 7,764 yuan/ton (down 0.89%) [26] - Spot: Liaoning 308 general peanuts were 8,500 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan/ton); Henan Baisha general peanuts were 8,100 yuan/ton (unchanged) [26] - **Spot Market Focus** - In Henan, peanut prices were stable; in Jilin, prices were weak; in Liaoning, prices were slightly weaker than the previous day; in Shandong, prices were stable or slightly weak [27]

Core Insights - Indonesia is increasing the export tax on crude palm oil to enhance funding support for biodiesel funds, indicating a potential shift towards a B50 biodiesel policy [1] Group 1 - The Indonesian government aims to boost financial backing for biodiesel initiatives through higher export taxes on crude palm oil [1] - The introduction of a B50 biodiesel policy suggests a significant move towards renewable energy sources in Indonesia [1]