文/ 广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 9 月 PMI 数 据 公 布 ， 这 是 在 EPMI 、 BCI 之 后 公 布 的 第 三 个 关 于 9 月 经 济 的"软数据"。三个软指标斜率强弱有别，但指向基本一致，9月经济出现 了秋季旺季的季节性改善 。 9月经济出现季节性改善 9月PMI数据公布，这是在EPMI、BCI之后公布的第三个关于9月经济的"软数据"。三个软指标斜率强弱有别，但指向基本一致，9月经济出现 了秋季旺季的季节性改善。历史上不是所有年份的"秋旺"都成立，比如2018、2021年，9月PMI均是环比下行的，2016年9月是环比持平。 Wind数据显示，9月EPMI（战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数）环比上行4.6个点至52.4。秋旺特征显现，环比上行幅度大致持平于季节性均值 水平。长江商学院BCI指数在6-8月连续放缓后，9月出现跃升，从前值的46.9回升至51.1，表现略超预期。9月PMI为49.8，高于前值的49.4。 PMI表明七个强经济信号 一是生产强于需求。9月PMI生产指标和新订单指标差值进一步扩大至2.2个点。生产指标，处于2024年2月以来的新高。我们理解其背后可能 一则是金融条 ...

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 长江商学院BCI指数在6-8月连续放缓后，9月出现跃升 （图1） ，从前值的46.9回升至51.1，表现略超预 期。我们理解这可能是环比同比共同作用的结果。BCI是一个兼具环同比特征的指标，企业会被询问在销售、利润、 库存等经营指标上，未来6个月与去年同期相比如何变化。从环比来看，9月是工业旺季，8月以来稳增长也有所升 温；从同比来看，去年9月恰是景气低点。一个启示是今年9月工增等经济数据可能在同比也具有一定优势。 第二， BCI销售前瞻指数、利润前瞻指数环比分别上行13.9、7.2个点，"秋旺"的季节性特征初步呈现。回看数据， 企业销售预期的年内低点是8月，匹配同期需求端投资加速下行，"两新"、出口均有所放缓。9月回升或来自广义财 政带动有所增强。在报告《资产重估行至当下：约束与动能》中，我们指出建设项目资金到位率中房建止跌回升，非 房建持续改善，实物工作量中沥青开工率回升，或与新型政策性金融工具即将下达有关。 第三， 两个价格指数也均有上行，消费品价格预期较中间品改善幅度更明显，这意味着在企业眼中，未来消费品价 格会有所好转。这一 ...

Group 1 - The macro growth factor continues to rise, while inflation indicators show a weakening rebound, with domestic CPI turning negative at -0.4% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.9%, indicating persistent internal demand issues [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are driving upward global liquidity expectations, benefiting Asian equity markets, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 5.94% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.31% [4][9] - The A-share market shows a preference for growth styles, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.48%, while small-cap indices outperform large-cap blue chips [4] Group 2 - Recommendations for asset allocation include favoring high-grade credit bonds in the bond market, adjusting duration flexibly, and focusing on bank and insurance sector movements [5] - In the overseas equity market, the report suggests monitoring interest rate-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar and significantly raised interest rate cut expectations [5] - For gold, it is recommended to increase allocations to gold and silver as they are core assets during the interest rate cut cycle, with expectations for Shanghai gold to break previous highs [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall liquidity environment remains supportive for market valuation recovery and structural trends, with a significant decrease in average daily trading volume in the A-share market [56] - The A-share valuation levels have increased, with the price-to-earnings ratio rising to 50.38 times and the price-to-book ratio reaching 5.60 times, suggesting that market expectations for future corporate earnings may be overly optimistic [60] - The report highlights that the earnings expectations for A-shares are weaker than historical averages, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.3% and revenue growth rate of 5.9% [61]

Group 1: Government Debt Issuance - In June, government debt issuance remained high at 2.8 trillion yuan, up from 2.3 trillion yuan in the previous period, with net financing of 1.41 trillion yuan[5] - By the end of June 2025, the net financing scale of government debt is projected to reach 7.8 trillion yuan, with an issuance progress of 56.2%[5] - The cumulative issuance progress for various types of government bonds is 52.0% for general bonds, 47.5% for special bonds, and 85.2% for special refinancing bonds[5] Group 2: Automotive Market Trends - From June 1 to June 22, retail sales of passenger cars reached 1.269 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24% and a month-on-month increase of 8%[8] - The price war in the automotive sector ended in June, with BYD offering discounts of up to 34% on certain models, boosting consumer purchasing intentions[8] - The automotive industry faces risks from intense competition, which may affect product quality and future maintenance services[4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The BCI index fell to 49.3 in June, indicating a cautious outlook among enterprises, with sales and profit expectations declining by 2.7 and 2.9 percentage points respectively[11] - The manufacturing PMI rose by 0.2 points to 49.7% in June, with production and new orders indices improving to 51 and 50.2 respectively[19] - GDP growth for the second quarter is expected to be between 5.3% and 5.4%[20]