文/ 广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 9 月 PMI 数 据 公 布 ， 这 是 在 EPMI 、 BCI 之 后 公 布 的 第 三 个 关 于 9 月 经 济 的"软数据"。三个软指标斜率强弱有别，但指向基本一致，9月经济出现 了秋季旺季的季节性改善 。 9月经济出现季节性改善 9月PMI数据公布，这是在EPMI、BCI之后公布的第三个关于9月经济的"软数据"。三个软指标斜率强弱有别，但指向基本一致，9月经济出现 了秋季旺季的季节性改善。历史上不是所有年份的"秋旺"都成立，比如2018、2021年，9月PMI均是环比下行的，2016年9月是环比持平。 Wind数据显示，9月EPMI（战略性新兴产业采购经理人指数）环比上行4.6个点至52.4。秋旺特征显现，环比上行幅度大致持平于季节性均值 水平。长江商学院BCI指数在6-8月连续放缓后，9月出现跃升，从前值的46.9回升至51.1，表现略超预期。9月PMI为49.8，高于前值的49.4。 PMI表明七个强经济信号 一是生产强于需求。9月PMI生产指标和新订单指标差值进一步扩大至2.2个点。生产指标，处于2024年2月以来的新高。我们理解其背后可能 一则是金融条 ...

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 9月PMI数据公布，这是在EPMI、BCI之后公布的第三个关于9月经济的"软数据"。三个软指标斜率强 弱有别，但指向基本一致，9月经济出现了秋季旺季的季节性改善。历史上不是所有年份的"秋旺"都成立，比 如2018、2021年，9月PMI均是环比下行的，2016年9月是环比持平。 第二， 从PMI来看，目前经济信号之一是生产强于需求。9月PMI生产指标和新订单指标差值进一步扩大至 2.2个点。生产指标，处于2024年2月以来的新高。我们理解其背后可能一则是金融条件有利于供给；二则是 在价格和利润率偏低背景下，企业可能更倾向于以量补价。 第三， 从PMI来看，目前经济的信号之二是出口景气度没有变化。5月以来一直处于47-48之间，其中季度末 的6月、9月是两个高点。这与集装箱吞吐量持续偏高的情况也比较吻合。我们理解尽管关税、"抢出口"可能 带来一定节奏波动，但中国制造护城河仍较为明显，海外"财政端扩张+货币端降息"的环境也整体有利于外 需。 第四， 从PMI来看，目前经济的信号之三是大企业景气度较高，小企业短期改善较明显，中型企业压力偏 ...

Core Viewpoint - The September EPMI (Emerging Industry Purchasing Managers Index) increased by 4.6 points to 52.4, indicating a seasonal recovery typical of autumn, although the absolute level remains historically low [1][6][24]. Group 1: EPMI and Industry Trends - The EPMI's increase aligns with the seasonal average of 4.5 points from 2014 to 2024, with the number of industries in the expansion zone rising from 2 to 4 [1][6][7]. - Despite the improvement, the absolute EPMI value of 52.4 is the second lowest for September in history, down 0.9 points from the previous year [6][24]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Indicators - Key supply and demand indicators showed improvement: production volume, product orders, and export orders increased by 7.8, 6.5, and 6.8 points respectively [2][9]. - The production-to-demand ratio turned positive, with an average of 0.7 for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating an improvement in supply-demand balance compared to previous years [9][10]. - Price indicators also improved, with purchase prices and sales prices rising by 0.8 and 0.2 points respectively, although the growth rate has slowed compared to July and August [9][12]. Group 3: Employment and Financing Environment - The EPMI loan difficulty index decreased by 0.9 points, suggesting a more favorable financing environment for emerging enterprises due to increased credit support and coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [15][16]. - Employment indicators have shown a two-month recovery, with a 2.6-point increase in September, indicating stronger demand for jobs in new industries during the graduation season [15][16]. Group 4: Sector Performance - In September, the highest absolute economic performance was observed in the new generation information technology and energy-saving environmental sectors, driven by demand growth related to AI computing power and domestic substitution [19][20]. - The new energy vehicle sector also saw a month-on-month increase in economic performance, with retail sales growing by 6% year-on-year and 10% month-on-month [19][20]. - The performance of traditional sectors varied, with some industries like petroleum asphalt and automotive tires showing increased operating rates, while others like high furnace and PVC saw declines [23][24]. Group 5: Economic Outlook - The third quarter has shown signs of continued economic slowdown, with September data being crucial for short-term economic assessment [24]. - The EPMI data suggests a neutral economic outlook, with seasonal recovery not extending the trends observed in July and August, indicating that achieving annual growth targets will require further policy support [24].

Core Viewpoint - The EPMI (Emerging Industry Purchasing Managers Index) for August shows a slight month-on-month increase of 1.0 points, indicating a stabilization in economic activity despite remaining at a historically low level of 47.8, the lowest for August since 2014 [1][6][8]. Summary by Sections EPMI Overview - The EPMI increased by 1.0 points in August, aligning closely with the seasonal average increase of 1.1 points [7]. - The absolute index value of 47.8 is 1.0 points lower than the same month last year, marking the lowest level recorded for August since data collection began in 2014 [8][9]. Demand and Production Indicators - Demand indicators showed slight improvement, with product orders and export orders rising by 2.5 and 2.8 points respectively, while production indicators fell by 0.3 points [10]. - The production-to-order ratio turned negative at -0.6, indicating a better alignment between supply and demand [10]. - Supply contraction led to price increases, with purchase prices rising by 5.3 points and sales prices by 1.5 points [12]. - The difficulty of obtaining loans in emerging industries increased by 2.6 points, reflecting a tightening financing environment [12]. Sector Performance - The sectors of new energy and energy conservation are leading in terms of absolute economic performance, with significant price increases in the new energy vehicle, new energy, and biological industries [14]. - In August, new energy and energy conservation were the only two sectors in the expansion zone, likely influenced by accelerated fiscal funding and seasonal factors [14]. - Price increases in the new energy vehicle sector were notable, with sales prices rising by 4.6 points, indicating effective price management in larger enterprises [14][17]. High-Frequency Data Insights - High-frequency data from early to mid-August showed resilience in exports, production constraints, and strong pricing [18]. - Traditional industries experienced a decline in operating rates due to "anti-involution" effects, with specific declines noted in the automotive tire sector [18]. - Overall, manufacturing PMI is expected to show little change compared to July [18].

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for July 2025 is reported at 49.3%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index and composite PMI output index are at 50.1% and 50.2%, respectively, both down by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points from last month[3] - The decline in July's PMI is attributed to both temporary and structural factors, including extreme weather and natural disasters[3] Group 2: Factors Influencing PMI - Extreme weather conditions, such as high temperatures and natural disasters, have negatively impacted PMI readings, contributing to a seasonal decline in manufacturing[4] - The "anti-involution" trend may cause a temporary slowdown in production, but it is expected to improve price expectations significantly[5] - The new export orders index fell to 47.1%, indicating a slowdown in export demand, reflecting the effects of previous strong export activities[6] Group 3: Price Indicators - The PMI raw material purchase price index increased by 3.1 percentage points to 51.5%, while the PMI factory price index rose by 2.1 percentage points to 48.3%[5] - The marginal improvement in price expectations does not indicate a substantial recovery in prices, as the transition from negative to positive PPI growth is still pending[5] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The construction PMI and service PMI recorded values of 50.6% and 50.0%, with respective declines of 2.2 and 0.1 percentage points[6] - The construction sector is expected to face less downward pressure due to ongoing policy support for infrastructure projects[8]

Macro Overview - June PMI indicates weak internal momentum, with manufacturing PMI at 49.7%, non-manufacturing PMI at 50.5%, and composite PMI at 50.7%, all showing slight increases of 0.2 to 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[9] - The divergence in PMI reflects significant differences between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises showing improved conditions likely due to rising commodity prices[10] - Employment indicators and service sector PMI have declined, suggesting a slowdown in internal momentum[10] Market Performance - The equity market saw a volume decrease with an average trading volume of 1.4414 trillion CNY, down 45.3 billion CNY week-on-week[8] - Major indices performed as follows: Shanghai Composite Index up 1.40%, Shenzhen Component Index up 1.25%, and ChiNext Index up 1.50%[8] - The bond market experienced a decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to range between 1.6% and 1.7%[8] International Context - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, exceeding the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3%[8] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September are approximately 80%, down from 98% prior to the non-farm report[8] - The U.S. Congress passed a significant tax and spending bill, which has reduced short-term concerns about fiscal sustainability[8] Risks and Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance of the economy and trade negotiations not meeting expectations[8] - The upcoming week will focus on key economic indicators, including June PPI and CPI, with expectations of -3.19% and 0.00% respectively[14]

Economic Indicators - In June, the official manufacturing PMI recorded 49.7%, a slight increase from 49.5% in May, but still below the expansion threshold[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5% from 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in the service sector[2] - The composite PMI output index increased to 50.7%, reflecting overall economic recovery[2] Manufacturing Sector Insights - The production index continued to expand, with new orders rising above the threshold, indicating improved demand[3] - New export orders showed a minor recovery, with domestic orders performing better than foreign ones[3] - The purchasing volume surged into the expansion zone, reflecting a positive shift in corporate procurement attitudes[3] Price and Inventory Dynamics - Both factory prices and major raw material purchase prices increased, indicating a balance between downstream demand recovery and upstream commodity price fluctuations[3] - Finished goods inventory rose significantly, while raw material inventory continued to recover, suggesting a cautious approach to inventory management[3] Sectoral Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2 percentage points to 51.4%, while the consumer goods sector PMI rose to 50.4%, marking six consecutive months of growth[4] - Large enterprises maintained strong PMI performance, while small enterprises saw a decline of 2 percentage points, highlighting resource imbalances within the industry[4] Future Outlook - The EPMI index fell to 47.9%, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a divergence from the PMI due to ongoing trade tensions and tariff issues[10] - Economic recovery remains uncertain, with the real estate sector still in a downturn and consumer prices under pressure, suggesting reliance on fiscal stimulus for demand recovery[13] - The bond market is expected to remain stable, supported by the current economic data and policy expectations, despite external uncertainties[16]

Core Viewpoint - In June 2025, three soft indicators showed divergence: EPMI and BCI declined, while manufacturing PMI increased slightly by 0.2 points to 49.7, indicating mixed economic signals in the manufacturing sector [1][3][4]. Group 1: PMI Analysis - The increase in manufacturing PMI is attributed to sample differences, with EPMI focusing on strategic emerging industries and BCI primarily representing private small and medium enterprises. The structure of June's PMI indicates that large enterprises are experiencing improved conditions, while small enterprises are facing downturns [4][5]. - In June, large enterprises' PMI was 51.2, up from 50.7; medium enterprises' PMI was 48.6, up from 47.5; and small enterprises' PMI was 47.3, down from 49.3, highlighting the disparity in performance across different enterprise sizes [5]. Group 2: Industry Performance - Significant increases in PMI were observed in the petroleum processing, chemical, and pharmaceutical industries, with respective increases of 8.6, 7.2, and 4.0 points. These changes are expected to have a notable impact on overall data due to the substantial contribution of these industries to manufacturing value added [6][8]. - The rise in the petroleum and chemical sectors is linked to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly due to recent increases in international crude oil prices [2][6]. Group 3: Employment and Expectations - Manufacturing employment and enterprise expectations both saw declines in June, indicating a slowdown in internal economic momentum when excluding the impacts of commodity price fluctuations [8][10]. - The manufacturing employment index was reported at 47.9, down from 48.1, while the production and business activity expectation index was at 52.0, down from 52.5, reflecting cautious sentiment among manufacturers [9][10]. Group 4: Positive Signals - Despite some negative indicators, there were positive signals in June, such as a slight increase in new export orders to 47.7, which contrasts with the direction of EPMI export orders, suggesting potential for future verification [11]. - The construction sector also showed improvement, with the construction PMI rising by 1.8 points to 52.8, driven by better orders and business activity expectations, likely influenced by recent policy measures aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [10][12].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April, indicating marginal improvement in manufacturing activity[1] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from April, returning to the expansion zone after briefly falling below 50%[3] - The new orders index recorded 49.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from April, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months[1] - Equipment manufacturing PMI increased to 51.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in this sector[1] - The coal-fired power generation's cumulative output in May increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while cumulative output for the year decreased by 6.8%[6] Group 3: External Trade and Demand - The new export orders index for May is 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points from April, reflecting cautious optimism in external demand[15] - The government plans to increase support for consumer goods replacement, raising the special bonds for this initiative from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan[12] - The automotive market saw a retail scale of approximately 1.85 million vehicles in May, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%[13]

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for May 2025 show a slight recovery, with the BCI reading at 50.3, indicating stabilization in the economy due to a combination of financial policies and tariff reductions, although the trend still requires consolidation [1][2][18]. Economic Indicators - The BCI reading for May 2025 is 50.3, up 0.2 points from the previous value, reflecting a recovery in economic conditions since the "9·24" event [2]. - The BCI readings from October 2024 to May 2025 show fluctuations: 46.0 in September 2024, rising to 50.5 in November 2024, then dipping to 48.3 in December 2024, and reaching 54.8 in March 2025 before a slight decline to 50.1 in April 2025 [2]. Microeconomic Conditions - The microeconomic indicators show mixed results: improvements in financing environment, employment, and consumer price expectations, while declines are noted in intermediate goods price expectations, profit expectations, and investment expectations [4]. - The financing environment index improved to 49.1 in April, up from 48.0, indicating a better financing situation influenced by recent financial policies [4]. Employment Trends - Employment rebounded significantly in May, with the enterprise hiring index rising by 1.9 points, suggesting a high elasticity of employment in the external demand supply chain [9]. - The report estimates that foreign trade directly and indirectly supports around 170 million jobs, accounting for over 20% of total employment in the country [9]. Price Indicators - There is a divergence in price indicators: the consumer price expectation index is rising, while the intermediate goods price expectation index is declining, indicating pressure on industrial prices despite improvements in consumer prices [12]. - The profit expectation index continues to decline, reflecting ongoing pressure from low industrial prices, with PPI showing negative growth from January to April 2025 [14]. Investment Sentiment - The enterprise investment expectation index is declining, attributed to uncertainties in external environments and high real interest rates [15]. - Recommendations include lowering nominal interest rates and increasing government investment to stimulate corporate investment [15][16]. Conclusion - The economic situation in May shows improvement compared to April, but the trend needs further consolidation, with key factors such as US-China trade negotiations and local government project accelerations being crucial for future pricing [17][18].