● 本报记者王宇露王雪青 经过前期的上涨，部分新消费个股估值是否已经到了偏贵的程度，成为整个市场关心的问题。对此，明 世伙伴基金认为，新消费涵盖的细分方向很多，相关个股估值是否偏高不能一概而论。从景气成长的角 度来看，主要关注个股定价程度是否已经透支了远期的想象空间，以及高频数据变化是否支持股价进一 步向远期空间拓展。由于新消费所涵盖的细分方向大多是渗透率偏低的消费方向或行业空间大但相关公 司份额小的方向(分别对应渗透率提升和份额提升的成长机会)，虽然部分个股股价已有明显上涨，但是 并没有显著透支远期想象空间。 在星石投资副总经理、基金经理方磊看来，短期来看新消费头部公司业绩增长在数据端得到验证，市场 持续上调新消费领域的业绩预期，带动新消费个股出现了一波较为亮眼的行情。但这同时也导致了资金 对新消费头部标的交易较为拥挤，主题热度也由一线标的向三四线标的延伸。从头部企业估值来看，当 前市场可能正在用短期业绩增长来为公司长期价值定价，当前部分新消费个股的估值可能高于中长期中 枢。这意味着拉长时间来看，部分新消费个股存在估值波动的风险，如果业绩预期落空，前期过热的资 金交易可能会导致新消费标的股价出现较大调整。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the "new consumption" sector, particularly focusing on Pop Mart and its associated IPs, highlighting concerns over valuation and market sustainability following a rapid price drop in collectibles and stocks [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Pop Mart's stock price fell from a high of 283.4 HKD per share on June 12 to 239.6 HKD per share by June 20, marking a decline of over 15% [6][5]. - The market capitalization of Pop Mart decreased by more than 50 billion HKD from its peak of 3800 billion HKD [6]. - Other companies in the "new consumption" sector, such as Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Group, also experienced significant declines of approximately 19% and 17%, respectively [2][8]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Fund managers are divided in their outlook on the new consumption sector, with some optimistic about its growth potential while others express concerns over inflated valuations and potential bubbles [3][9]. - The recent market correction is viewed as a "stress test" for new consumption companies, providing an opportunity to reassess investment strategies and focus on genuine consumer demand rather than speculative trends [4][16]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - As of June 20, Pop Mart had a dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 95.3, significantly higher than traditional consumer leaders like Kweichow Moutai, which has a P/E ratio of 20.2 [10][11]. - The article highlights that the valuation of Pop Mart and other new consumption companies may not be sustainable, especially when compared to established global brands like Disney and Hasbro [11][12]. - Some fund managers argue that the current market conditions reflect a speculative bubble, with valuations not justified by underlying business fundamentals [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the current downturn, some fund managers remain optimistic about the long-term growth potential of new consumption companies, citing ongoing consumer interest and market expansion opportunities [13][14]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer behavior and preferences in the new consumption landscape, suggesting that future investment strategies should focus on demographic insights rather than traditional metrics [19][20].

从6月10日初代Labubu雕塑以108万天价成交，到6月19日部分高价盲盒在二手市场价格暴跌，泡泡玛特"信 仰动摇"只用了十天。 近期，以泡泡玛特为代表的"新消费三姐妹"集体降温，老铺黄金、蜜雪集团、泡泡玛特分别从高点回调约 19%、17%、15%，引发各路投资者对新消费板块估值、IP生命周期、行情持续性的担忧。 基金经理们的观点也出现了明显分歧，乐观派认为新消费具备"高增长、高现金流、赛道广阔"的稀缺性，未来 是"星辰大海"，谨慎派则认为部分标的已经透支未来，存在明显估值泡沫。 与此同时，此次回调也是一次宝贵的"压力测试"，不仅检验着新消费企业，也在为新消费投资提供"冷静 期"——从追捧"情绪溢价"转向深挖"真实复购"，从迷信渠道铺货转向解构人群画像，市场降温时，恰恰也是 市场重构认知、修正新消费投资框架的最佳窗口。 "新消费三姐妹"集体回调 6月20日，泡泡玛特股价低开低走，盘中一度下跌超6%，截至收盘报239.6港元/股，跌幅收窄至3.62%，全天成 交额明显放大，接近100亿港元，其中南向资金当日净卖出6.17亿港元，净卖出额创2025年5月12日以来新高。 如果拉长时间来看，泡泡玛特其实已经回调了 ...