摘要 市场对美联储降息预期显著升温，联邦基金利率期货显示 9 月降息概率 升至 94%，年内降息次数预期增至 2.2 次，2026 年底前降息次数预期 增至 5.3 次，反映市场对未来货币政策宽松的强烈预期。 特朗普政府宣布对进口家具启动关税调查，旨在重振美国国内制造业。 尽管短期内对依赖进口的美国家具公司股价造成回调，但降息预期对冲 了部分负面影响，部分公司股价甚至高于降息消息发布前水平。 美国对家具进口依赖度高，尤其在人工密集型环节。中国制造商凭借性 价比优势仍具竞争力。未来 50 天窗口期内，可能出现抢出口现象。关 税成本预计将在供应商、品牌商和消费者间分摊，中国企业竞争优势不 会根本改变。 当前估值下，本土产能公司（如梦百合、爱丽家居）受益于潜在关税利 好，阿尔法优势强劲且估值较低的企业（如江心家居）值得布局。长期 看，中国及东南亚产业链集群优势和企业研发能力将推动品牌出海和供 应链全球化。 Q&A 美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行年会上发表了什么重要观点？这对市场有何影响？ 2025 年 8 月 22 日，美联储主席鲍威尔在全球央行年会上表示，如果通胀继续 上升且劳动力市场疲软，美联储可能会通过降息来支持 ...

2025.08. 21 本文字数：2662，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 周艾琳 走近Westfield世贸中心购物中心，它像是一颗嵌在曼哈顿钢筋水泥丛林中的"白色心脏"。而中国最 火的"新消费"代表泡泡玛特（09992.HK）就位于这座曼哈顿最大的购物中心内。 （纽约世贸中心购物中心 摄影/周艾琳） 泡泡玛特门前人流攒动，其中有搜索热门款的中国消费者，也有众多美国消费者兴致勃勃地选购心仪 的IP。同中国门店类似，热门IP都已售罄，不同的是，美国当地的售价最低也达到19.9美元（折合 143元人民币），而部分商品售价都在35~40美元。 "热门款可以去北美官方APP、网站预购，基本几天内会提醒你补货。"一位带着儿子前来购物的非裔 美国女子对第一财经记者称。"祝你好运。"她友好地表示。说完便拿着买到的IP走出了门店。 （位于纽约世贸中心购物中心内的泡泡玛特门店 摄影/周艾琳） 海外市场的火爆也从其财报中可见一斑。2025年上半年，泡泡玛特营收同比增长204%，净利润同比 增长397%。净利润较华尔街的预期高出约5%，大中华区营收同比增长135%，美洲地区营收同比增 长1142%。年初至今，泡泡玛特港股 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the backtest of the predictive growth factor shows no significant excess returns before 2022, with a notable differentiation occurring in 2022, where the revenue and net profit growth group (0-15%) performed the best since then, attributed to a market style shift towards value investing due to macroeconomic pressures and declining market risk appetite [1][14]. - The report highlights the introduction of the PEG factor to optimize the investment portfolio, which measures the relationship between valuation and growth potential, suggesting that high-growth companies should have a higher PEG valuation level compared to slower-growing companies [2][21]. - The PEG (1-3) factor was found to be most effective in the revenue and net profit growth group (50%+), with the cumulative return for the revenue growth (50%+) PEG (1-3) portfolio reaching 275.45% and the net profit growth (50%+) PEG (1-3) portfolio achieving 296.87% over the period from July 1, 2014, to July 25, 2025 [3][50]. Group 2 - The report discusses the historical performance of growth and value styles in the A-share market, noting a cyclical rotation approximately every four years, with growth style underperforming since 2022 due to economic pressures and liquidity tightening [7]. - The report provides a detailed analysis of the backtest results based on revenue growth, categorizing companies into four groups based on their predicted revenue growth rates, with the 0-15% growth group showing the best performance since 2022 [9][14]. - The report also analyzes net profit growth, indicating that the net profit growth (0-15%) group similarly outperformed in the same period, reflecting a consistent trend across both revenue and net profit growth metrics [15][19]. Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting PEG valuation levels based on historical context and market conditions, with a recommendation that a PEG below 1.0 is considered a reasonable valuation standard [20][21]. - The backtest results for different revenue growth groups show that the 0-15% revenue growth group performed best with a PEG (0-1) range, achieving a cumulative return of 249.25% [24][27]. - The report concludes that the PEG (1-3) factor is particularly effective for high-growth companies, with significant excess returns observed in both revenue and net profit growth groups exceeding 50% [35][46].

Core Viewpoint - The new consumption era is gaining momentum, driven by policy support and the spending power of Generation Z, leading to significant investment opportunities in the market [1][2]. New Consumption Highlights - The stock price of Lao Pu Gold surged by 14.94% on June 30, reaching a record high of 1035 HKD, reflecting the strong recovery of the consumption sector [1]. - New consumption categories such as pets and blind boxes are becoming market highlights as younger generations take the lead in consumer spending [1][2]. Market Analysis - The new consumption sector is experiencing strong phase growth, with good performance in earnings, leading to market confidence in future growth [2]. - Concerns have arisen regarding whether some new consumption stocks have reached overvalued levels after recent price increases, prompting a need for careful evaluation of individual stock valuations [3][4]. Valuation Insights - The overall valuation of the new consumption industry is at a mid-high level, attracting significant capital due to high growth expectations, although it has not reached the extreme levels seen in 2020-2021 [4]. - The uncertainty in future cash flows makes traditional DCF valuation challenging, suggesting that PEG may be a more practical valuation method for this sector [4]. Future Outlook - The new consumption sector is expected to continue evolving, with new models and products emerging, presenting ongoing investment opportunities [6]. - There may be a divergence within the sector, with companies that can consistently meet or exceed performance expectations likely to see stock price appreciation, while those lacking new products may face declines [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent decline in the "new consumption" sector, particularly focusing on Pop Mart and its associated IPs, highlighting concerns over valuation and market sustainability following a rapid price drop in collectibles and stocks [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Pop Mart's stock price fell from a high of 283.4 HKD per share on June 12 to 239.6 HKD per share by June 20, marking a decline of over 15% [6][5]. - The market capitalization of Pop Mart decreased by more than 50 billion HKD from its peak of 3800 billion HKD [6]. - Other companies in the "new consumption" sector, such as Lao Pu Gold and Mixue Group, also experienced significant declines of approximately 19% and 17%, respectively [2][8]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Fund managers are divided in their outlook on the new consumption sector, with some optimistic about its growth potential while others express concerns over inflated valuations and potential bubbles [3][9]. - The recent market correction is viewed as a "stress test" for new consumption companies, providing an opportunity to reassess investment strategies and focus on genuine consumer demand rather than speculative trends [4][16]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - As of June 20, Pop Mart had a dynamic price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 95.3, significantly higher than traditional consumer leaders like Kweichow Moutai, which has a P/E ratio of 20.2 [10][11]. - The article highlights that the valuation of Pop Mart and other new consumption companies may not be sustainable, especially when compared to established global brands like Disney and Hasbro [11][12]. - Some fund managers argue that the current market conditions reflect a speculative bubble, with valuations not justified by underlying business fundamentals [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Despite the current downturn, some fund managers remain optimistic about the long-term growth potential of new consumption companies, citing ongoing consumer interest and market expansion opportunities [13][14]. - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding consumer behavior and preferences in the new consumption landscape, suggesting that future investment strategies should focus on demographic insights rather than traditional metrics [19][20].