How I see FOMC playing out:- Base case:No cut. No raise. Everyone front-ran derisk today. Today’s lows (~3710 on ETH) are the weekly lows. Institutional bid keeps grinding up over next weeks. Abundance August.- Bull case:Rate cut. Would be extremely surprising. Risk on probably full sends bc signals Fed bending the knee (with more cuts likely in 2025). Hyperinflation. BTC to $600k- Bear case:Rate hike. Trump sends the military to the Fed to remove JPow. All markets descend into chaos.I’d say Base case is 99 ...

Market Trends & Trade - Trade deals and talks should matter a lot to the macro market, but much of it is already priced in [2] - The market is pricing in the absolute best-case scenario regarding a potential 90-day reprieve on trade issues [3] - The market yawned at the EU deal, indicating it was already expected [4] Risk Assessment & Market Sentiment - The market has shifted from complete risk aversion to complete risk acceptance in a matter of weeks [6] - There are signs of real froth in the market, with some describing it as a "flight to crap" [6] - The market is seeing levels similar to 2021 when money was free, which is worrisome [11] - "Flight to crap" is the opposite of "flight to quality," where investors seek maximum risk [8][9] Meme Stocks & Speculative Trading - Meme stocks and companies with no earnings are seeing bids, and SPACs are back [5] - Individuals were buying the market in April, and risky trades have worked for them [10] - The activity surrounding meme stocks is more akin to gambling than investing [12] - Options activity often precedes social media hype for meme stocks, with peaks occurring shortly after the market opens [13] Company Specific Concerns - Kohl's bonds are trading around $0.70 on the dollar, indicating potential troubles ahead [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, the year - on - year growth of bond custody scale decreased, with the growth rate of custody balance dropping by 0.3 percentage points to 14.9%. The main contributor to the decrease was inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs), while interest - rate bonds increased year - on - year. Government bonds maintained a year - on - year increase [5][10]. - Except for foreign investors continuing to reduce their bond holdings, the overall bond - allocation strength of institutions was not weak. Different types of institutions had different bond - allocation preferences and reasons [6]. - Looking ahead, it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of equities and the evolution of the pressure on the liability side of funds. The bond supply situation in July is expected to be similar to that in June, and the net supply of government bonds is expected to decline from August to September, which may relieve the supply pressure on the bond market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Scale in June - The year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance in June 2025 was 14.9%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from May. The newly - added custody scale was 1.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 176.9 billion yuan [5][10]. - Interest - rate bonds (treasury bonds + local government bonds + policy - bank bonds) and financial bonds were the main types with year - on - year increases, especially government bonds. In June, treasury bonds increased by about 20 billion yuan year - on - year, and local government bonds increased by about 28 billion yuan year - on - year. NCDs decreased significantly, and the net supply turned negative, continuing the downward trend since the second quarter [5]. 3.2 Bond - Allocation by Institutions in June - **Banks**: The growth rate of the deposit - loan difference continued to rise, and bond investment maintained a year - on - year increase. Structurally, they preferred local government bonds [6][39]. - **Insurance companies**: They increased their bond - allocation in June, mainly adding local government bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds. On one hand, the bond market was bullish in June; on the other hand, the growth rate of insurance premiums in the second quarter rebounded [44]. - **Unincorporated products**: Although the year - on - year increase was significantly lower, affected by the high base of manual interest supplementation last year, the actual bond - allocation strength was not weak. They reduced their holdings of NCDs and increased their holdings of active varieties such as treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [6]. - **Foreign investors**: They continued the selling trend in May, mainly because the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar led to a decrease in the carry - trade income of foreign institutions [6]. - **Securities firms**: They increased their bond holdings by 151.4 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 52.9 billion yuan. After net selling in May, they replenished some bond positions in June [6]. 3.3 Outlook - **Supply side**: In July, the bond structure is likely to continue the situation in June, with government bonds increasing and NCDs remaining at a low level. It is expected that the net supply of government bonds will decline from August to September, and the supply pressure on the bond market may be relieved [7]. - **Institutional side** - **Banks**: With high asset growth and sufficient liabilities, it is expected that banks will maintain a high level of bond - allocation [7]. - **Insurance companies**: Attention should be paid to whether the rising stock market will affect the bond - allocation rhythm of insurance companies [7]. - **General asset - management accounts**: The liability side of wealth management products is relatively stable, while funds need to pay attention to the redemption pressure that may be brought about by the continuous adjustment of the bond and money markets [7].

Holder Growth - USELESS coin 新增超过 1,400 名持有者，在过去 24 小时内 [1] - USELESS coin 新增超过 1,000 名持有者，在过去 24 小时内 [1] - USELESS coin 持有者数量达到历史新高 [1] Market Dynamics - 大量小型钱包迅速吸收下跌和抛售 [1] - USELESS coin 被认为是市场上速度最快的，是押注风险的最佳选择 [1] - USELESS coin 被视为今年从困境中脱颖而出的主要新蓝筹 memecoin [1] - 随着比特币每日创下历史新高，USELESS coin 的表现更具吸引力 [1] Distribution Improvement - USELESS coin 的分配持续改善 [1]

Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment improved as the Israel-Palestine conflict eased, and U.S. macro data showed resilience, leading to increased expectations for three interest rate cuts this year, resulting in a "risk on" environment where risk assets generally rose, particularly copper prices which increased while gold prices fell [1][3]. Precious Metals Market Overview - Gold prices fell last week, with COMEX gold down 2.9% and SHFE gold down 1.5%, while silver prices showed a slight increase [2][21]. - The easing of the Israel-Palestine conflict led to a decrease in market risk aversion, and subsequent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials raised expectations for interest rate cuts, causing the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to decline [4][20]. - Despite the short-term decline in gold prices, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties suggest limited downside potential for gold in the medium to long term, with a recommendation to wait for stabilization [4][49]. Base Metals Market Review - Copper prices rose significantly, with COMEX copper increasing by 4.86% and SHFE copper by 2.79%, driven by a combination of favorable market sentiment and supply constraints from overseas smelting plants [2][3]. - The copper market is expected to enter a traditional off-season with low inventory levels, which may support price increases if inventory does not accumulate during this period [5][49]. - The copper concentrate TC weekly index rose slightly, indicating a "strong mine, weak smelting" market dynamic, with smelting plants facing production losses due to low processing fees [8][10]. Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 530,000 ounces, while COMEX silver inventory increased by about 3.62 million ounces, indicating mixed trends in precious metal inventories [35]. - The positioning data from CFTC shows that non-commercial short positions in gold remain low, suggesting a lack of strong directional signals from positioning alone [7][40]. Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain positive for copper, with low inventory levels potentially leading to price increases, while gold may experience limited downside due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [49].

显然市场要比美联储对美国的通胀受控更为乐观，又或者可以这样说，市场不太看好美国经济和就业， 因此下注于美联储官员需要通过加快降息来刺激经济。 中东局势似有缓和迹象，美股大涨，道琼斯工业指数涨0.89%，收复今年以来失地，年初至今变幅重回 正数，累涨0.09%；特斯拉（TSLA.US）因在德州推出RoboTaxi，股价涨超8%，在此推动下，纳斯达克 指数（IXIC.US）和标普500（SPX.US）分别涨0.94%和0.96%。 盘后，美股大盘指数期货均延续涨势，纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.67%，道指期货涨0.43%，标普500指 数期货涨0.48%。 特朗普声称以色列和伊朗已经同意停火，缓和了中东原油供应短缺的担忧，原油期货价显著回落，WTI 原油期货跌超1%，至每桶66.2美元的两周低位，现报66.7美元。 布伦特原油期货则跌超1%，至大约69.1美元，也是近两周低位，现报每桶69.9美元。 黄金的避险作用减退，金价回落至3,350美元。 最近美联储官员开始放鸽;，表态如果通胀受到控制，支持7月份降息。市场仍在等待鲍威尔周二和周三 在国会作证可能披露的利率意向。有意思的是，交易员都在预期美联储会加快降息步 ...

War over. Risk on. https://t.co/ebckiPiGIys4mmy (@S4mmyEth):Is the U.S. sending jets and bidding Bitcoin simultaneously? ...