Brand, you have a final trade. Let's talk about it. >> Yeah, ETHA, uh, it's down about 15% from its August highs. It's right at support from its 2020 24 highs.So, I think it's a good setup for Q4 risk on. >> Where are you on Bitcoin Weiss. What what do you see.>> I'm there. I'm there. I I you know, I'm not surprised by it declining after the big runup.I think it'll reassert that. >> You're you're there through what again. >> IBIT. >> IBIT.Okay. That's what I thought. What's uh well you're also in Lidos and ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, particularly focusing on the implications of potential interest rate cuts on various asset classes and markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S. Economic Slowdown**: Recent macroeconomic data indicates a significant slowdown in U.S. economic momentum, with August non-farm payrolls increasing by only 22,000, far below the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rising for three consecutive months, suggesting a cooling labor market [7][15][20]. 2. **Inflation Trends**: July's inflation data showed a moderate increase, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%. Core CPI slightly exceeded expectations at 3.1%, but overall inflation pressures remain manageable [15][20]. 3. **Market Expectations for Rate Cuts**: The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has strengthened, with a 100% probability indicated by the CME FedWatch tool. Fed Chair Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole conference reinforced this dovish outlook [7][20][21]. 4. **Historical Rate Cut Cycles**: The report reviews seven historical rate cut cycles since 1989, highlighting differences in driving factors and asset performance during these periods. The cycles are categorized into preventive and recessionary cuts [8][26][29]. 5. **Asset Allocation Strategies**: - **Equities**: A risk-on environment is anticipated, with developed markets expected to perform better than emerging markets. Specific sectors such as technology, real estate, and finance in A-shares, as well as real estate, finance, and consumer discretionary in Hong Kong stocks, are projected to outperform [9][10]. - **Bonds**: U.S. Treasuries are seen as ideal during recessionary cuts but less favorable in preventive cuts [9]. - **Currency**: The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken during preventive cut cycles [9]. - **Gold**: Historically, gold performs well during preventive cut cycles due to its inflation-hedging and safe-haven properties [9]. 6. **Focus on Upcoming Rate Cut**: The upcoming rate cut on September 18, 2024, is expected to initiate a new cycle of equity market expansion, particularly benefiting Hong Kong and A-shares, with a focus on technology, finance, and real estate sectors [10][12]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Diverse Reactions to Monetary Policy**: Different asset classes react variably to monetary policy changes, reflecting regional economic fundamentals and capital flows [33][39]. 2. **Performance of Risk Assets**: Historical data shows that during previous rate cut cycles, certain markets like Hong Kong and gold have outperformed others, indicating the importance of strategic asset allocation [33][39][52]. 3. **Sector-Specific Insights**: In the context of the 2001-2003 rate cut cycle, sectors such as utilities and energy in A-shares showed resilience, while healthcare and technology in Hong Kong exhibited significant gains [55]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the implications of U.S. monetary policy on various asset classes and market sectors.

Group 1 - The stock market has shown unexpected strength this year despite tariff-related uncertainties and macroeconomic challenges, indicating a "risk on" attitude among investors [1] - Investors are increasingly engaging with volatile assets, suggesting a shift in market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Gary Alexander has extensive experience in technology sectors, having worked on Wall Street and in Silicon Valley, which informs his insights into current industry trends [1] - He has been a contributor to Seeking Alpha since 2017 and has been featured in various web publications, indicating his influence and reach within the investment community [1]

Interest Rate Scenarios - Base case: No interest rate cut or raise is expected, with a 99.5% likelihood [1][2] - Bull case: A surprise interest rate cut is considered extremely unlikely but would signal a dovish Fed stance, potentially leading to hyperinflation [1] - Bear case: An interest rate hike is considered a chaotic scenario [1] Market Outlook - The market has already priced in the "no cut, no raise" scenario [1] - ETH's current lows around 3710 are expected to be the weekly lows [1] - Institutional buying is expected to drive the market upwards in the coming weeks [1] Potential Outcomes - Abundance is expected in August [1] - In a bull case scenario, BTC could potentially reach $600,000 [1] - In a bear case scenario, all markets could descend into chaos [1]

Market Trends & Trade - Trade deals and talks should matter a lot to the macro market, but much of it is already priced in [2] - The market is pricing in the absolute best-case scenario regarding a potential 90-day reprieve on trade issues [3] - The market yawned at the EU deal, indicating it was already expected [4] Risk Assessment & Market Sentiment - The market has shifted from complete risk aversion to complete risk acceptance in a matter of weeks [6] - There are signs of real froth in the market, with some describing it as a "flight to crap" [6] - The market is seeing levels similar to 2021 when money was free, which is worrisome [11] - "Flight to crap" is the opposite of "flight to quality," where investors seek maximum risk [8][9] Meme Stocks & Speculative Trading - Meme stocks and companies with no earnings are seeing bids, and SPACs are back [5] - Individuals were buying the market in April, and risky trades have worked for them [10] - The activity surrounding meme stocks is more akin to gambling than investing [12] - Options activity often precedes social media hype for meme stocks, with peaks occurring shortly after the market opens [13] Company Specific Concerns - Kohl's bonds are trading around $0.70 on the dollar, indicating potential troubles ahead [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In June 2025, the year - on - year growth of bond custody scale decreased, with the growth rate of custody balance dropping by 0.3 percentage points to 14.9%. The main contributor to the decrease was inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs), while interest - rate bonds increased year - on - year. Government bonds maintained a year - on - year increase [5][10]. - Except for foreign investors continuing to reduce their bond holdings, the overall bond - allocation strength of institutions was not weak. Different types of institutions had different bond - allocation preferences and reasons [6]. - Looking ahead, it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of equities and the evolution of the pressure on the liability side of funds. The bond supply situation in July is expected to be similar to that in June, and the net supply of government bonds is expected to decline from August to September, which may relieve the supply pressure on the bond market [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Custody Scale in June - The year - on - year growth rate of bond custody balance in June 2025 was 14.9%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from May. The newly - added custody scale was 1.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 176.9 billion yuan [5][10]. - Interest - rate bonds (treasury bonds + local government bonds + policy - bank bonds) and financial bonds were the main types with year - on - year increases, especially government bonds. In June, treasury bonds increased by about 20 billion yuan year - on - year, and local government bonds increased by about 28 billion yuan year - on - year. NCDs decreased significantly, and the net supply turned negative, continuing the downward trend since the second quarter [5]. 3.2 Bond - Allocation by Institutions in June - **Banks**: The growth rate of the deposit - loan difference continued to rise, and bond investment maintained a year - on - year increase. Structurally, they preferred local government bonds [6][39]. - **Insurance companies**: They increased their bond - allocation in June, mainly adding local government bonds, credit bonds, and financial bonds. On one hand, the bond market was bullish in June; on the other hand, the growth rate of insurance premiums in the second quarter rebounded [44]. - **Unincorporated products**: Although the year - on - year increase was significantly lower, affected by the high base of manual interest supplementation last year, the actual bond - allocation strength was not weak. They reduced their holdings of NCDs and increased their holdings of active varieties such as treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds [6]. - **Foreign investors**: They continued the selling trend in May, mainly because the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar led to a decrease in the carry - trade income of foreign institutions [6]. - **Securities firms**: They increased their bond holdings by 151.4 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 52.9 billion yuan. After net selling in May, they replenished some bond positions in June [6]. 3.3 Outlook - **Supply side**: In July, the bond structure is likely to continue the situation in June, with government bonds increasing and NCDs remaining at a low level. It is expected that the net supply of government bonds will decline from August to September, and the supply pressure on the bond market may be relieved [7]. - **Institutional side** - **Banks**: With high asset growth and sufficient liabilities, it is expected that banks will maintain a high level of bond - allocation [7]. - **Insurance companies**: Attention should be paid to whether the rising stock market will affect the bond - allocation rhythm of insurance companies [7]. - **General asset - management accounts**: The liability side of wealth management products is relatively stable, while funds need to pay attention to the redemption pressure that may be brought about by the continuous adjustment of the bond and money markets [7].

Holder Growth - USELESS coin 新增超过 1,400 名持有者，在过去 24 小时内 [1] - USELESS coin 新增超过 1,000 名持有者，在过去 24 小时内 [1] - USELESS coin 持有者数量达到历史新高 [1] Market Dynamics - 大量小型钱包迅速吸收下跌和抛售 [1] - USELESS coin 被认为是市场上速度最快的，是押注风险的最佳选择 [1] - USELESS coin 被视为今年从困境中脱颖而出的主要新蓝筹 memecoin [1] - 随着比特币每日创下历史新高，USELESS coin 的表现更具吸引力 [1] Distribution Improvement - USELESS coin 的分配持续改善 [1]

Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment improved as the Israel-Palestine conflict eased, and U.S. macro data showed resilience, leading to increased expectations for three interest rate cuts this year, resulting in a "risk on" environment where risk assets generally rose, particularly copper prices which increased while gold prices fell [1][3]. Precious Metals Market Overview - Gold prices fell last week, with COMEX gold down 2.9% and SHFE gold down 1.5%, while silver prices showed a slight increase [2][21]. - The easing of the Israel-Palestine conflict led to a decrease in market risk aversion, and subsequent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials raised expectations for interest rate cuts, causing the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to decline [4][20]. - Despite the short-term decline in gold prices, the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties suggest limited downside potential for gold in the medium to long term, with a recommendation to wait for stabilization [4][49]. Base Metals Market Review - Copper prices rose significantly, with COMEX copper increasing by 4.86% and SHFE copper by 2.79%, driven by a combination of favorable market sentiment and supply constraints from overseas smelting plants [2][3]. - The copper market is expected to enter a traditional off-season with low inventory levels, which may support price increases if inventory does not accumulate during this period [5][49]. - The copper concentrate TC weekly index rose slightly, indicating a "strong mine, weak smelting" market dynamic, with smelting plants facing production losses due to low processing fees [8][10]. Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 530,000 ounces, while COMEX silver inventory increased by about 3.62 million ounces, indicating mixed trends in precious metal inventories [35]. - The positioning data from CFTC shows that non-commercial short positions in gold remain low, suggesting a lack of strong directional signals from positioning alone [7][40]. Market Outlook - The overall market sentiment is expected to remain positive for copper, with low inventory levels potentially leading to price increases, while gold may experience limited downside due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties [49].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.89%, recovering losses from earlier in the year, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices increasing by 0.94% and 0.96% respectively [1] - Tesla's stock surged over 8% following the launch of RoboTaxi in Texas, contributing to the overall market rally [1] - The performance of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks has lagged behind the broader market, with a cumulative decline of 3.73% year-to-date, while Tesla's decline has narrowed to 13.66% [2] Group 2 - Apple has faced pressure on its stock price due to regulatory fines and declining product demand, with year-to-date declines of 19.34% [3] - Amazon and Google also recorded year-to-date declines of 4.98% and 12.62% respectively [3] - Meta and Microsoft have outperformed, with year-to-date gains of 19.50% and 15.75% respectively, driven by Meta's aggressive investment in AI infrastructure and acquisitions [3][4] Group 3 - Meta plans to introduce advertising on its WhatsApp platform to increase revenue and alleviate the burden of its substantial capital expenditures [4] - The market remains optimistic about Meta's future prospects due to its strategic investments in AI and potential revenue streams [4] Group 4 - The easing of geopolitical risks may shift market focus back to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and the fundamentals of listed companies, impacting capital investment and industry layout [5]

War over. Risk on. https://t.co/ebckiPiGIys4mmy (@S4mmyEth):Is the U.S. sending jets and bidding Bitcoin simultaneously? ...